jasonj80 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artic...UTO01/806200418 This isn't good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artic...UTO01/806200418 This isn't good. Isn't exactly "end of the world" either. It beats the alternative of having piles and piles of unsold '08's on the lot next to the new '09's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snooter Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 Isn't exactly "end of the world" either. It beats the alternative of having piles and piles of unsold '08's on the lot next to the new '09's. thats what ford was going to end up with...unsold 08's evrywhere..i would not be surpeised if dodge delays the new ram as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 (edited) thats what ford was going to end up with...unsold 08's evrywhere..i would not be surpeised if dodge delays the new ram as well... Eh, with the delay, I don't think there will be an inventory problem. Add in the Employee Pricing on F-150's now, they will probably go pretty quickly. Once again, I think people are over-estimating the decline in sales of 1/2 ton pickups. It's not like dealers have gone to selling only 1 of them a month. Edited June 20, 2008 by NickF1011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snooter Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 Eh, with the delay, I don't think there will be an inventory problem. Add in the Employee Pricing on F-150's now, they will probably go pretty quickly. Once again, I think people are over-estimating the decline in sales of 1/2 ton pickups. It's not like dealers have gone to selling only 1 of them a month. i dunno...may be some dealers can chime in conerning what f150 volume is.....we shall see on how many 08's are left come november...there are huge rebates on trucks around here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted June 20, 2008 Author Share Posted June 20, 2008 Eh, with the delay, I don't think there will be an inventory problem. Add in the Employee Pricing on F-150's now, they will probably go pretty quickly. Once again, I think people are over-estimating the decline in sales of 1/2 ton pickups. It's not like dealers have gone to selling only 1 of them a month. It wasn't just the F-150 announcement -- Ford Credit not making a profit which has been traditionally where Ford has made a lot of there profit (assuming they are being KILLED on all these Leases coming back) This month will be abysmal for sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snooter Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 It wasn't just the F-150 announcement -- Ford Credit not making a profit which has been traditionally where Ford has made a lot of there profit (assuming they are being KILLED on all these Leases coming back) This month will be abysmal for sales. [/quote down 25%...????????????????....would be my guess as well as plant closings announced by august Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cougarpower Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 This was the best decision they have done with the current market conditions, and sales will be ugly for everybody including Honda and I expect sales of -30 to -40% for pick ups and big SUV for everyautomaker, and Focus sales will surpass may sales by 3k to 4k units if my predictions are correct Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescoent Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 6.2L Boss anyone? No? Hydraulic hybrid would be delightful right now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 It wasn't just the F-150 announcement -- Ford Credit not making a profit which has been traditionally where Ford has made a lot of there profit (assuming they are being KILLED on all these Leases coming back) This month will be abysmal for sales. I don't know if Ford Credit will LOSE money. As long as they stay close to break-even they should be okay. After all, Ford made a profit in Q1 with very little coming from Ford Credit already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted June 20, 2008 Author Share Posted June 20, 2008 This was the best decision they have done with the current market conditions, and sales will be ugly for everybody including Honda and I expect sales of -30 to -40% for pick ups and big SUV for everyautomaker, and Focus sales will surpass may sales by 3k to 4k units if my predictions are correct JD power made a comment earlier in the week that sales in June were selling at a 12.5 million units per year rate. So with Ford current market share that is 130,000-140,000 units for the whole month. Also is the Edge really selling that well? I see a lot with the bar code on the back window and there is 0% for 60months on them as well. I don't know on Focus sales, I think inventory is going to be a problem for them, dealer near me only has 4 on the lot, 3 of which are coupes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 JD power made a comment earlier in the week that sales in June were selling at a 12.5 million units per year rate. So with Ford current market share that is 130,000-140,000 units for the whole month. Also is the Edge really selling that well? I see a lot with the bar code on the back window and there is 0% for 60months on them as well. I don't know on Focus sales, I think inventory is going to be a problem for them, dealer near me only has 4 on the lot, 3 of which are coupes. Edge stll seems to be selling just fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironhorse Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 (edited) It's a bloodbath now with most makes and dealerships...the used truck market is in freefall,and NO MAKER can put enough on the hood to get customers rightside up..and not run out of cash...not even close.... Vehicle Dealerships have hundreds of thousands of used trucks in inventory that are way overvalued(by perhaps billions of dollars) The used truck collaspse is the real problem. Edited June 20, 2008 by ironhorse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 Overheard a manager at a dealership yesterday talking with a sales rep about trade in values. Customer wanted 17.5 for an unnamed SUV, claimed that was 'book value', and the manager was telling the sales rep that the values are falling so fast that 'book value' doesn't mean anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 That will be almost $18 billion in losses since 2006 and Ford still has the wrong product for $5 a gallon gasoline. If you take a look at the tremendous drop off in SUV and pickup sales, the amount of $$ Ford made from the sale of each one, and how fast the consumer is moving to smaller vehicles, it is hard to believe that Ford can return to profitability selling small cars head on against Honda, Toyota, Nissan, VW, etc. since the competition in that segment will be super intense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironhorse Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 Overheard a manager at a dealership yesterday talking with a sales rep about trade in values. Customer wanted 17.5 for an unnamed SUV, claimed that was 'book value', and the manager was telling the sales rep that the values are falling so fast that 'book value' doesn't mean anything. That's the problem...it's like a run on the bank except it's used trucks and SUV's...this is being fueled by fear,and the unknown...Diesel trucks are getting absolutely butchered at the auctions...most are no sales,because they can't even get a bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soupy Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 i dunno...may be some dealers can chime in conerning what f150 volume is.....we shall see on how many 08's are left come november...there are huge rebates on trucks around here Is it just me, cause I always wonder where, approximately, is around here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edstock Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 it is hard to believe that Ford can return to profitability selling small cars head on against Honda, Toyota, Nissan, VW, etc. since the competition in that segment will be super intense. Maybe that's why VW is thinking about pulling their small cars from the US market. Meanwhile, the Focus does well against the NA-assembled Asians, and the Fiesta, with Mexican assembly should do very well indeed, along with the Mexican-assembled Fusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soupy Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 JD power made a comment earlier in the week that sales in June were selling at a 12.5 million units per year rate. So with Ford current market share that is 130,000-140,000 units for the whole month. Also is the Edge really selling that well? I see a lot with the bar code on the back window and there is 0% for 60months on them as well. I don't know on Focus sales, I think inventory is going to be a problem for them, dealer near me only has 4 on the lot, 3 of which are coupes. Is "around here" in the same general location as "near me" ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unknown25 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 Day supply (as of June 1st) F-150 142 days (60 is ideal) 2.7 months to burn down to average Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 That's the problem...it's like a run on the bank except it's used trucks and SUV's...this is being fueled by fear,and the unknown...Diesel trucks are getting absolutely butchered at the auctions...most are no sales,because they can't even get a bid. I've never seen anything like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironhorse Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 I've never seen anything like it. I've been in the business for 25 years,and 10 years as a Dealer Principle and I've never seen the used truck market meltdown like this....HOWEVER I believe it will bottom out shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
focus05 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 (edited) I have June as just a disaster. Don't read into the yearly sales rate as a reflection of total Ford volume this month because that is annualized and normally June is the third or fourth largest sales month of the year. I have Ford volume down just about 22% in June to about 188k units. Right now I have the F-series stealing share in the full-size truck market and still being down over 35%. The Focus will post about a 10% increase over last year, but inventory is killing Ford (and everyone else) right now. The Escape will take a hit as it readjusts against fleet levels from a year ago, but not much of a hit, maybe 10-15%. Edge will be down maybe 10%. Fusion will be flat to up 5%. The Explorer and Expedition are just DOA. It's just going to be a dirty month. I have industry sales at 13.5-13.8M for the month end. Not even Honda is going to be up without a miracle in the last two weekends of the month. Of note, I believe this is the bottom of the market. The reason: gas and oil prices have been relatively stable for the last two weeks and there are signs that people are starting to re-normalize. Doesn't mean that F-series sales will magically start climbing or that the used truck market will blossom into a green pasture, but I think the end of the blood-letting is nigh. People are starting to reconsider their paranoia, and ultimately, that is the best thing they can do. Edited June 20, 2008 by focus05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 Maybe that's why VW is thinking about pulling their small cars from the US market. Meanwhile, the Focus does well against the NA-assembled Asians, and the Fiesta, with Mexican assembly should do very well indeed, along with the Mexican-assembled Fusion. The Focus is doing quite well but the profit on a single SUV or F-150 is a multiple of the profit of a made in Mexico Focus. Maybe if Ford was selling the Euro Focus with a Ecoboost 1.4L, a diesel, and/or a hybrid that matched Prius, then they could go up against Prius, Honda Civic and Honda Accord with some confidence. That, however is not going to happen until 2011 MY, at the earliest, and even then, we won't see the engine options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
focus05 Posted June 20, 2008 Share Posted June 20, 2008 Day supply (as of June 1st) F-150 142 days (60 is ideal) 2.7 months to burn down to average With all the configurations available, ideal for the F-150 is closer to 75-90 days. So, almost 2 months to burn down, and low and behold, that's the magnitude of the delay we're getting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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