Do You Understand Field's Logic? I Don't

[RichardJensen]

May 18th, 2008: New York Times drives diesel pre-prod '09 Acura TSX

YMMV.

 

Besides, none of that changes the fact that Honda announced diesel ACCORDS and ODYSSEYS for 2009

 

http://blogs.edmunds.com/straightline/2006...-mdx-in-us.html

 

Methinks this project isn't meeting price points for quotidian models like the Odyssey & Accord, which is why we're seeing it first in an Acura.

 

After all, Honda announced the 2009 diesel ACCORD, not the 2009 diesel TSX.

 

But feel free to continue holding the domestics to a different standard. After all, you'll be able to buy a FUSION that gets better gas mileage than the ACCORD NEXT YEAR.

[Deanh]

YMMV.

 

Besides, none of that changes the fact that Honda announced diesel ACCORDS and ODYSSEYS for 2009

 

http://blogs.edmunds.com/straightline/2006...-mdx-in-us.html

 

Methinks this project isn't meeting price points for quotidian models like the Odyssey & Accord, which is why we're seeing it first in an Acura.

 

After all, Honda announced the 2009 diesel ACCORD, not the 2009 diesel TSX.

 

But feel free to continue holding the domestics to a different standard. After all, you'll be able to buy a FUSION that gets better gas mileage than the ACCORD NEXT YEAR.

AND on a fuel 20-25% cheaper to begin with..........all this MPG stuff is fine and dandy but people should look at the cost of OVERALL OWNERSHIP....

[one2gamble]

For those of you just joining in:

 

 

1) US diesel emissions regulations are significantly more stringent than EU regulations. Modifications required to meed US emissions regulations (including exhaust flow constricting particulate matter traps) impact mileage.

 

2) US mileage ratings are NOT comparable to EU mileage ratings. They were not before the EPA implemented a tougher testing regimen, and they are decidedly different now that new testing regimens are in place.

 

3) The US taxes diesel fuel differently than the EU does.

 

 

Do you have any articles stating these things. Mainly point #1, I need to send some reading material to a buddy of mine

[Ford Jellymoulds]

NEXT YEAR.

 

Next year? French may wipe out the world out by Wednesday Richard, France may becomes black hole or blow itself up with a bit of luck and you worry about diesels, you sound like one of those doomsayers you drive big diesel trucks we drive small diesel/gasoline cars?

 

Cancel your plans for this Wednesday Richard, it could be your last day on Earth.

 

If you believe a vocal lobby of doomsayers, at the flick of a switch on the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) this wednesday the world will be consumed from the inside out and turned to a pile of grey goo. Yesterday their apocalyptic warnings were challenged by a report from the scientists behind the project outlining just how safe it is to recreate the Big Bang under the France-Switzerland border.

 

The Large Hadron Collider - the atom-smashing machine built underneath the Alps - has sent more internet-based harbingers of doom into a spin than it will have atomic particles whizzing around its 17-mile circumference when it is put into action this wednesday. They fear that the energies released will be so powerful that a runaway black hole will be created that will engulf the planet or produce “quantum strangelets” transforming the Earth into a dead lump of “strange matter”.

 

So worried are they about the impending end of the Universe that they have been to court to try to stop it.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4682260.ece

[chucky2]

YMMV.

 

Yes, that's true...and it may vary higher in mpg for all we know - mileage varying can cut either way.

 

Besides, none of that changes the fact that Honda announced diesel ACCORDS and ODYSSEYS for 2009

 

http://blogs.edmunds.com/straightline/2006...-mdx-in-us.html

 

Did you just use a link from 2006???

 

And, even so, the in the link in your link, is that Honda is delivering a small diesel engine in 2009 that meets 50 state emissions regs - something the Big 3 have failed to do. That they'll start with the Acura TSX instead of another of their offerings doesn't really mean much.

 

Methinks this project isn't meeting price points for quotidian models like the Odyssey & Accord, which is why we're seeing it first in an Acura.

 

After all, Honda announced the 2009 diesel ACCORD, not the 2009 diesel TSX.

 

Or, they want to see how big the public reception of a new technology is before spending the money rolling it out to their other offerings...which is what another company is doing with their Ecoboost product.

 

But feel free to continue holding the domestics to a different standard.

 

I have to. If I didn't, I'd never be able to force myself into buying/recommending their products.

 

After all, you'll be able to buy a FUSION that gets better gas mileage than the ACCORD NEXT YEAR.

 

Really? So Ford is going to have a non-Hybrid Fusion for sale in 2009 - as either a 2009 or 2010 model - that gets 50+ mpg on the highway?? That's outstanding!!!

 

Can you point me to the link for that??? Thanks.

 

Chuck

[RichardJensen]

Do you have any articles stating these things. Mainly point #1, I need to send some reading material to a buddy of mine

1) Emissions regulations:

 

http://www2.dmu.dk/AtmosphericEnvironment/...icle_values.pdf

 

2) Fuel economy testing:

 

USA

 

http://www.epa.gov/fedrgstr/EPA-AIR/2006/D...ay-27/a9749.pdf

 

See esp. p. 6 of the document. Note the differences in maximum and (more importantly) average speed. Acceleration is also important, as that, I believe, more dramatically impacts diesel mileage than gasoline mileage.

 

UK:

 

http://www.vcacarfueldata.org.uk/informati...ting-scheme.asp

 

Urban cycle

The urban test cycle is carried out in a laboratory at an ambient temperature of 20°C to 30°C on a rolling road from a cold start, i.e. the engine has not run for several hours. The cycle consists of a series of accelerations, steady speeds, decelerations and idling. Maximum speed is 31 mph (50 km/h), average speed 12 mph (19 km/h) and the distance covered is 2.5 miles (4 km). The cycle is shown as Part One in the diagram below.

 

Extra-urban cycle

This cycle is conducted immediately following the urban cycle and consists of roughly half steady-speed driving and the remainder accelerations, decelerations, and some idling. Maximum speed is 75 mph (120 km/h), average speed is 39 mph (63 km/h) and the distance covered is 4.3 miles (7 km). The cycle is shown as Part Two in the diagram below.

 

3) Taxation:

 

EU:

 

http://www.euractiv.com/en/taxation/fuel-t.../article-117495

 

Granted, these numbers are from 2002; however, I haven't found anything from a later date that suggests that any of these rates have changed.

 

USA:

 

http://www.api.org/statistics/fueltaxes/

As of July 1, 2008, the average amount of tax imposed on a gallon of gasoline sold in the United States was 49.4 cents per gallon, up 2.4 cents from the January 2008 report. For diesel fuel, the national average amount of tax was 56.4 cents per gallon, up 2.8 cents from the January 2008 report.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

COMBINED, for those of you who have thus far missed out on posts to this point, the FACTS establishing a SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT environment for diesel in the US have made diesel far less attractive here.

 

It is more expensive to meet diesel emissions requirements. Reported diesel mileage is lower, and diesel is more heavily taxed than in the various countries of the EU.

Edited September 8, 2008 by RichardJensen

[RichardJensen]

Did you just use a link from 2006???

I did. To show that Honda has dramatically scaled back their earlier intentions.

 

Honda announced at the Tokyo auto show that there will be a US-spec Accord diesel for 2009.

http://blogs.edmunds.com/straightline/2007...g-for-2009.html

 

it may vary higher in mpg for all we know

Not likely. That EU Accord was fitted with EU emissions equipment, not US emissions equipment. And, if the mileage was derived from the vehicle's onboard computer, it is more than likely that the numbers were in Imperial (20% higher) gallons.

 

So Ford is going to have a non-Hybrid Fusion for sale in 2009

Well, there's that double standard again. Ford is just months away from launching a real life honest to goodness combined 35mpg midsize sedan, and you're quibbling because it's a hybrid? You'd rather Ford be promising a diesel sometime in the indefinite future a la Honda? Let me ask you this: What if the situation was reversed? Honda on the cusp of launching a 35mpg Accord hybrid, and Ford only promising a diesel Fusion at some unspecified future date?

Edited September 9, 2008 by RichardJensen

[Deanh]

I love you, Richard.

eeek...I just pictured you two guys together wearing cowboy hats.....

[Ron W.]

Cancel your plans for this Wednesday Richard, it could be your last day on Earth.

 

 

So worried are they about the impending end of the Universe that they have been to court to try to stop it.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4682260.ece

 

 

From the article

He had deduced that it would be “quite plausible” to conclude that black holes resulting from the collider experiment “will grow exponentially and eat the planet from the inside” across a devastating four-year period of decay.

 

From the replys

They say that if this experiment goes ahead it could cause little holes that over the next four years will get bigger and bigger and it will be the end of the world and four years from now is 2012 and the would is supposed to end 21st December 2012 so maybe this is the start of the world ending

 

And about now all the Mayans are going ... See we told you so. :shades:

[Ron W.]

I love you, Richard.

 

 

"P", seek help.

[RichardJensen]

Fundamentally, the Standard Model is at odds with observed large scale reality, so it's defective. IMO, the LHC will not suggest anything new to replace it.

 

The vacuum energy discrepancy is the 'black body radiation problem' of the Standard Model.

 

As to eating the earth, the concept is absurd. If cosmic ray collisions were predictable enough to be observed, billions of dollars could be saved by doing THAT instead of building these accelerators.

 

That said, you do not want to get hit by that beam of protons. That WILL kill you.

Edited September 8, 2008 by RichardJensen

[LSFan00]

We can all just agree to re-visit this in 6 months when sales numbers come in.

 

Again, for posterity, my position isn't that diesel will take over, but that it will sell, profitably, and that the brands that sell them (Merc., Honda, etc.) will benefit from the longevity, PR, and brand image in the US. I do think that in 5-7 years they will be over 10 percent of sedans sold, and likely greater than hybrids, here.

[RichardJensen]

in 5-7 years

What will change in the emissions/taxation/cost of compliance matrix in the next 3-5 years to make that happen in 5-7?

[syrtran]

I don't care about SoCal...nothing is desirable about that place. And what happens in SoCal...shouldn't dictitate regulations for the rest of the country.

 

If you don't like the smog in SoCal...leave.

I'm not in SoCal, I'm all the way near the other coast. Around here, we worry more about acid rain and Golden Snowball awards.

 

My point is that you post that the Feds are trying to make diesels look evil (for Big Oil, no less!), while my answer is that there's a very real benefit to emissions controls. The reason for using LA in my example is that, in 1973, you could actually end up in a hospital if you stayed outside too long during a smog alert (yes, even healthy people). Today, the home of the Interstate Parking Lot is a very different place where air quality is concerned. There's many more cars on the road, yet the air is much more breathable.

[P71_CrownVic]

I love you, Richard.

 

 

Works for me!

 

You know...I wonder if this particular alter ego of mine was created by Dean. I mean who else could misspell "Crown" with "Clown"?

Edited September 9, 2008 by P71_CrownVic

[Ford Jellymoulds]

eeek...I just pictured you two guys together wearing cowboy hats.....

 

LOL, YMCA YMCA YMCA

[Edstock]

Fundamentally, the Standard Model is at odds with observed large scale reality, so it's defective. IMO, the LHC will not suggest anything new to replace it.

Yes. This is the ultimate expression of the "We Need a Bigger Hammer" school of physics. The universe doesn't work that way, except in the LHC.

[Deanh]

You know...I wonder if this particular alter ego of mine was created by Dean. I mean who else could misspell "Crown" with "Clown"?

may I introduce the newer nicer Metro P.............

[Ford Jellymoulds]

From the article

 

So worried are they about the impending end of the Universe that they have been to court to try to stop it.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4682260.ece

 

From the replys

 

He had deduced that it would be “quite plausible” to conclude that black holes resulting from the collider experiment “will grow exponentially and eat the planet from the inside” across a devastating four-year period of decay.

 

They say that if this experiment goes ahead it could cause little holes that over the next four years will get bigger and bigger and it will be the end of the world and four years from now is 2012 and the would is supposed to end 21st December 2012 so maybe this is the start of the world ending

 

And about now all the Mayans are going ... See we told you so. :shades:

 

T-Stangs Triumph Stag is full of holes that seem to get bigger and bigger maybe he dabbling in big bang particle physics in a desperate attempt to get the Stag running on all 6 pots something never been done before, l gotta say it won't work?

 

Here T-Stag this might help you - The ultimate guide to the LHC

http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en/LHC/Facts-en.html

Edited September 9, 2008 by Ford Jellymoulds

[LSFan00]

What will change in the emissions/taxation/cost of compliance matrix in the next 3-5 years to make that happen in 5-7?

 

 

Nothing Richard. Things will stay exactly as the market/product mix is today. Why exactly are hybrids and higher MPG vehicles growing in sales? Why are more diesels being introduced? Why is Ford talking about standardizing models globally? It's not like anything's changed over the past 5 years.

[RichardJensen]

Nothing Richard. Things will stay exactly as the market/product mix is today. Why exactly are hybrids and higher MPG vehicles growing in sales? Why are more diesels being introduced? Why is Ford talking about standardizing models globally? It's not like anything's changed over the past 5 years.

Thanks for the non-answer.

 

Diesel is a niche solution now for all the reasons I've supplied. I want YOU to explain why you think it will stop being a niche solution. I want you to offer some rational basis for your prediction.

 

otherwise, your prediction sits on the same shaky foundation as the Mayan calendar enthusiasts, and the black-holes-from-CERN fanatics.

[LSFan00]

Demagogery does not become you. I neither need to explain why diesel is a superior mechanical technology to gasoline nor why the economics and preferences of American consumers are changing. I've done so. I'm not going to go back into the "how much a gallon of diesel costs to produce" debate you've tirelessly sought to engage in (without real inside data), nor am I going to explain why hybrids are being produced in increasing numbers despite their very real cost-benefit problems, when analyzed from a rational perspective.

 

Beyond that basic ANSWER, I believe that diesel engine cars, with or without urea emissions systems (un-needed now under around 2.5L with our fuel), with today's low sulfur fuel, meeting T2B5 regs, matching American consumers increasing preference for smaller vehicles (or, specifically, more fuel efficient vehicles), will continue to grow beyond their current sales levels. They will be perceived as lasting longer. They will last longer. Companies not producing/selling them here will be perceived as the lower value manufacturers (going for lower budget consumers/margins; see; present-day Kia/Hyundai).

 

Why fight Honda when you could just join them, in this 'niche'? The end. That's it. Don't hurt yourself over-analyzing it.

[RichardJensen]

nor am I going to explain why hybrids are being produced in increasing numbers despite their very real cost-benefit problems

Well, it's like this: MSRP on the Prius is about the same as the diesel Jetta, yet it gets better gas mileage with cheaper fuel.

 

Again, what in the diesel cost of compliance/cost of fuel matrix is going to change? The current situation heavily favors Toyota's profitable Prius over a comparably sized diesel.

Edited September 10, 2008 by RichardJensen

[LSFan00]

Well, it's like this: MSRP on the Prius is about the same as the diesel Jetta, yet it gets better gas mileage with cheaper fuel.

 

Again, what in the diesel cost of compliance/cost of fuel matrix is going to change? The current situation heavily favors Toyota's profitable Prius over a comparably sized diesel.

 

Well, it's really like this: a Prius is about the same in cost for fuel over 5 years, but compared to a Jetta TdI it's a lot more expensive over 7-10 (especially in resale after 5 years) because it has something like a $5-7,000 battery in it. The diesel doesn't face the slow degradation of power, performance, or fuel economy as the battery ages.

 

Again, I understand you're not going to agree with me, and I'll just trust we can re-visit in 6 months. The market has changed; that's why more diesels are becoming available. Finally, the Prius doesn't get better mileage in the real world. Even with the older generation diesels (tuned for higher sulfur fuel, or running on bio-diesel) the Jetta's won consistently in comparo's. The new ones barely cost more than a regular gas model with the tax credit. Buying a hybrid is just an excellent way to demonstrate that you don't understand economics or mechanics.

 

Lovers of both fuel mileage and torque can finally rest easy; Volkswagen of America is now officially selling its 50-State-approved, clean diesel engine in either the Jetta sedan for $21,990 or Jetta SportWagen wrappers for $23,590. Equipped with the six-speed DSG transmission, both Jetta gets an EPA rating of 29 miles per gallon in the city and 40 on the highway. We expect to see better real-world numbers, though we're a bit wary of VW's advertising its alternate rating of 38/44 -- a number that is impossible to compare with anything else currently available. In any case, the $2,000 premium for the TDI engine will be lessened somewhat by the Fed's $1,300 tax credit which applies to either TDI model. Look for an early test of the oil-burner on these pages shortly.

[Hemiman]

Thanks for the non-answer.

 

Diesel is a niche solution now for all the reasons I've supplied. I want YOU to explain why you think it will stop being a niche solution. I want you to offer some rational basis for your prediction.

 

otherwise, your prediction sits on the same shaky foundation as the Mayan calendar enthusiasts, and the black-holes-from-CERN fanatics.

 

 

I've avoided this thread as this has been discussed in detail at least 10 times since I've been here (including before the BON crash). Diesel is not a niche solution. Yes NA offers some challenges for diesel designers, but it'll continue to grow in the market place, if fuel costs keep rising.

 

While diesel's, will replace SI (spark ignition) as the main ICE in the US just like it is in the rest of the world, it'll never completely take over the market. EB and other SI techs will keep gasser's current, but diesel tech is not sitting still either.

 

Yes I'm a fan of diesels, but I'm also a fan of SI's. Both techs will coexist untill the ICE is rendered obsolete by some new tech.