T-bird Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Sounds optimistic! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Don't underestimate the growth potential in China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geronimo183 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Well I hope they get their recalls/quality control sorted before then otherwise it will bankrupt them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coupe3w Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Well I hope they get their recalls/quality control sorted before then otherwise it will bankrupt them! It didn't bankrupt GM.....oh wait 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice-capades Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 I'll be optimistic that Ford can achieve its goal by 2020 but expect that a lot of the potential lies with the sales potential in China. In the meantime, it's not surprising that it'll take a bit longer to turn things around in Europe in good part do to the instability caused by the Russian political situation. South America is going through its own problems including a currency exchange rate that is causing problems of its own for Ford. It's also not a big surprise that Ford expects all the new vehicle launches this year to cost more than original estimates. What I don't understand or accept is why Ford is continuing to lose market share in North America. Everything is decided in recent years on the bottom line and Ford is willing to lose market share if it means meeting the target profit goals. I can understand not wanting to get into an incentives war with other manufacturers but there are times when Ford is not being competitive. Lost market share automatically erodes the customer base for repeat sales and future profits for both Ford and its Dealers. This has been a tough year for Ford Dealers, especially in regard to commodity issues with the most recent being the extremely low availability of the Power Moonroof option on the 2014 Edge. The order-to-delivery time for a Fiesta is 3-4 months and 4-5 months for a Transit Connect. The 2014 Transit Connect is a vastly improved vehicle but no one would know thanks to the lack of advertising. The Transit Connect Van has an established niche market for small businesses but the Transit Connect Wagon is lost in the market here. The all-new 2015 Transit is a very impressive vehicle replacing the E-Series Econoline but Ford forced us to take a number of 2015 Transit Medium Roof Vans which are not what our customers want. They want Transit 150's with the Low Roof, that are more comparable to the E-Series. I don't even want to start commenting on this year's Mustang situation! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 With regards to market share, you have to look at it carefully. Let's say F150 sales are staying flat but Dodge and Chevy decide to have an incentive war which raises the total number of sales and therefore lowers Ford's market share even though actual sales and profits are flat. In most cases the lost market share does not represent lost F150 sales - it represents pull ahead sales for Dodge and Chevy which will correct itself later. Ford could match the incentives and match the market share increase but that would also be pull ahead sales. In the end nothing really changed as far as sustained market share. That's why you can't just look at one month. You also have natural cycles with newer vehicles selling better than older ones. What I think may be happening is that Ford cut so much cost while trying to recover the company from the brink of bankruptcy and execute some pretty ambitious projects at the same time (global platform consolidation e.g.) that they're getting overwhelmed with lots of issues from engineering and design to manufacturing and inventory. Cut too many corners and it will eventually bite you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edstock Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 but the Transit Connect Wagon is lost in the market here. Oakville has 2 Ford dealers, and I can't recall seeing one. Lots of TC vans on the lots, but no wagons, it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldwizard Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Oakville has 2 Ford dealers, and I can't recall seeing one. Lots of TC vans on the lots, but no wagons, it seems. That was done on purpose. There was/is more demand for vans versus wagon. Vans are easier to build. Getting as many as possible on the road as quickly as possible, was definitely a goal. The second shoft should be starting shortly, so I would expect to start seeing wagons within a couple of months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldwizard Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 (edited) What I don't understand or accept is why Ford is continuing to lose market share in North America. Everything is decided in recent years on the bottom line and Ford is willing to lose market share if it means meeting the target profit goals. It is not just "bottom line", it is "bottom line for each vehicle". This was started by Alan Mulally when he was first hired. The story is, he asked Bill Ford if wanted the company to stay the same size and continue to struggle with profitability, including making it through the recession, or be a smaller, more profitable company. This is very contrary to the American way of thinking ! Competing, head to head, with the Korean imports, as well as the on-shore Japanese vehicles, would mean razor thins profits or losses. It also means no niche vehicles, unless they are simple mods to existing vehicle. This is why Flex/MkT are dying and you won't see another Thunderbird. From a global business perspective, you can criticize Ford for not getting into China fast enough. China and India have the fastest potential car buying population, so getting a foot print in those markets is important. Edited October 1, 2014 by theoldwizard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 And some may say that it's better to have higher volumes and razor thin margins as long as you're turning a profit and not losing money. The problem with that is it doesn't take much to go from razor thin profits to big losses and if you have too much fixed overhead (factories/workers e.g.) you can't respond quickly. This is what happened in 2008. It doesn't preclude niche vehicles but it does mean you have to go after all of the low hanging fruit first and any niche vehicle must pay its own way one way or the other. For Lincoln that means MKC, Aviator, Navigator, MKZ and dealer experience comes first along with any new volume platforms/vehicles. Then you can consider lower volume vehicles but they would still need to be on shared platforms with shared powertrains to be profitable at low volumes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Larson Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I hope so. Sounds like a good increase to my Ford stock if it happens!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I hope so. Sounds like a good increase to my Ford stock if it happens!! It will take a while to recover from the recent drop. Ouch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Larson Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 It will take a while to recover from the recent drop. Ouch! True. But I bought low. Should have bought when it was hovering around $1.00 or wherever it was. Wasn't that smart though!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 True. But I bought low. Should have bought when it was hovering around $1.00 or wherever it was. Wasn't that smart though!! I did too...well, some. Some at $2, some at $4. I wanted to buy some when it was $0.92, but I didn't have any spare money laying around, and things were pretty scary with the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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