probowler Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If I lived in the city, I probably wouldn't own a car. Well I'd probably still own my Camaro, but I'd never drive it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I know someone who uses a Tesla Roadster as his daily driver, and his wife has a Leaf. When they exceed the travel distance of the Roadster they either rent or use a Zipcar. It's not too different from the idea of renting a U-Haul a couple times a year rather than owning an F150 for the two to three trips to Home Depot that you may use it. I know it's possible, I just didn't think it was very common. Just like it's not common for someone who makes 3 trips to HD per year to drive an economy car and rent a truck. It's too inconvenient for most folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mustang_sallad Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Sure, lets argue based on anecdotal evidence regarding what people are and aren't interested in driving. Meanwhile, we can look at actual numbers. US Plug-in vehicle sales: 2012: 52,000 2013: 97,500 2014: 120,000 For comparison's sake: Lincoln sales, 2014: 95,000 If the plug-in market is as big as it is now and growing as fast as it is now with the products that are currently available, one would imagine that if GM delivers on the Bolt (and if their competitors are driven to keep up), many more people will be deciding that it makes sense to get into a plug-in vehicle. It's really too bad that we have no word from Ford about what they're up to in this segment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Sure, lets argue based on anecdotal evidence regarding what people are and aren't interested in driving. Meanwhile, we can look at actual numbers. US Plug-in vehicle sales: 2012: 52,000 2013: 97,500 2014: 120,000 For comparison's sake: Lincoln sales, 2014: 95,000 If the plug-in market is as big as it is now and growing as fast as it is now with the products that are currently available, one would imagine that if GM delivers on the Bolt (and if their competitors are driven to keep up), many more people will be deciding that it makes sense to get into a plug-in vehicle. It's really too bad that we have no word from Ford about what they're up to in this segment. Do those numbers include both EVs and PHEVs, or is it just Plug In Hybrids? Either way, I seriously doubt one electric offering from GM is going to convince the masses that an electric car is worth while. Ford hasn't done it with the Focus Elecric, GM hasn't done it with the Spark EV, Nissan, though they've sold a bunch through subsidies hasn't done it, and for all the fuss and bother in the media over Tesla, they certainly haven't done it. It's going to take a LONG time for electric vehicles to really make a major impact on the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Sure, lets argue based on anecdotal evidence regarding what people are and aren't interested in driving. Meanwhile, we can look at actual numbers. US Plug-in vehicle sales: 2012: 52,000 2013: 97,500 2014: 120,000 For comparison's sake: Lincoln sales, 2014: 95,000 If the plug-in market is as big as it is now and growing as fast as it is now with the products that are currently available, one would imagine that if GM delivers on the Bolt (and if their competitors are driven to keep up), many more people will be deciding that it makes sense to get into a plug-in vehicle. It's really too bad that we have no word from Ford about what they're up to in this segment. PHEV != BEV I think you are confusing the two. Plug-in hybrids make perfect sense and can easily be an only vehicle for anyone. Basic electric vehicles, not so much. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeff_h Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Do those numbers include both EVs and PHEVs, or is it just Plug In Hybrids? Those are both EV and PHEV, broken down by model here: http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You can't judge long term demand when there are $7500+ rebates for early adopters that translates to $199 leases. It's artificial demand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You can't judge long term demand when there are $7500+ rebates for early adopters that translates to $199 leases. It's artificial demand. But we can extrapolate from previous data points with hybrid cars. Most EV buyers that took advantage of the current tax incentives will end up buying another EV without any tax incentive. I think that's a pretty fair assumption. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 But we can extrapolate from previous data points with hybrid cars. Most EV buyers that took advantage of the current tax incentives will end up buying another EV without any tax incentive. I think that's a pretty fair assumption. How so? There's no evidence to back that assumption up. Most EVs only sell when there's massive tax incentive. Why do you think Obama keeps pushing to extend the tax credit program? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Exactly. Hybrids can be a primary vehicle for anyone with no range issues or refueling issues. If a leaf is cheaper than a honda civic then of course it will sell - until it's not cheaper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mustang_sallad Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 PHEV != BEV I think you are confusing the two. Plug-in hybrids make perfect sense and can easily be an only vehicle for anyone. Basic electric vehicles, not so much. That's why I said "Plug in Vehicles" - PHEVs make more sense for some people, pure BEVs make more sense for other people. But they both offer similar benefits, and involve a similar rethinking of how you fuel your vehicle. I would personally buy a PHEV, but the most recent numbers in the US actually show more demand for BEVs than PHEVs. Either way - my point is that a 200 mile EV at 37,500 (lets throw away the incentive for sake of discussion) would be a significant improvement over what's currently on the market, and should sway more buyers than the 3000 or so per month we're seeing with the most popular current plug-in models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I had a crazy though regarding people currently buying Volt on those low cost leases. The reason most buyers were signing up to Volt was the cheap lease combined with no gas bills due to minimal miles driven.. What if all those buyers suddenly went to Bolt and deserted the next Volt... boy, GM would be in a pickle then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 but the most recent numbers in the US actually show more demand for BEVs than PHEVs. Gee. I wonder if that's because BEVs have a $7500 rebate and most PHEVs (Cmax, Fusion Energi e.g.) don't? Follow the money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeff_h Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Gee. I wonder if that's because BEVs have a $7500 rebate and most PHEVs (Cmax, Fusion Energi e.g.) don't? The tax credits are based on battery capacity, Cmax and Fusion Energi don't get $7,500 credit but get $4,007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The tax credits are based on battery capacity, Cmax and Fusion Energi don't get $7,500 credit but get $4,007. I thought that credit was based on number of sales by the mfr and therefore Ford no longer had any credits. Is the BEV credit separate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I thought that credit was based on number of sales by the mfr and therefore Ford no longer had any credits. Is the BEV credit separate? Yes, it is IIRC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeff_h Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 (edited) I thought that credit was based on number of sales by the mfr and therefore Ford no longer had any credits. Is the BEV credit separate? Credit type is the same -- Ford is only up to about 36k out of 200k sales (before the credit starts to phase out)... below page has details, and then at the bottom of that page is a link that shows status by manufacturer. http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Plug-In-Electric-Vehicle-Credit-%28IRC-30-and-IRC-30D%29 Edited January 17, 2015 by jeff_h Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The way Volt is selling, GM will never run out of credits... Maybe that's the plan, make it just a little too expensive to sell in greater numbers... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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