bzcat Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Following the footstep of Hyundai, VW says it is looking at re-entering the van market in the US. It also says pickup trucks are back on the table but I think that's just wishful thinking because there is no way to skirt the chicken tax on pickup trucks. The new MQB platform Caddy van can be imported as a passenger vehicle, or assembled in Mexico. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-18/vw-explores-vans-and-pickups-to-broaden-u-s-customer-appeal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 (edited) They have a plant in Tennessee they could potentially make pickups in. Is it a wise move? Probably not. They will get their asses handed to them by the big 3 *edited hours later because holy crap that didn't make much sense Edited March 20, 2015 by fuzzymoomoo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Because, apparently, commercial buyers want products that are more expensive and less reliable than ones already sold by Ford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chucky2 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Who in their right commercial mind would buy a VW with VW's quality reputation? That'd be...insanity... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Who in their right commercial mind would buy a VW with VW's quality reputation? That'd be...insanity...The same people that buy a work van or work truck from Nissan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 (edited) Because, apparently, commercial buyers want products that are more expensive and less reliable than ones already sold by Ford. It's a very difficult market to crack for sure. Ford is the 500lb gorilla in the fleet market and dominates the van market. It won't walk away without a fight. But I think the reason why Hyundai and VW (as well as Mercedes) smells blood is because GM is exiting the fullsize van business... that creates an opportunity to be a viable #2 in the market after Ford. Here is my analysis of each of the players: Mercedes has carved a small niche for Sprinter, mostly by catering to fleets that demanded diesel powertrain (e.g. FedEx) but Ford is now in that space now with diesel Transit so Mercedes is diversifying into gasoline with the new midsize Metris. I remain a little skeptical about the midsize van market (does it exist? Chevy Astro van didn't exactly set the market on fire when it was around). Nissan is basically buying market share so long term, I'm not sure they are a viable player in the van market. GM's exit from fullsize market hasn't really helped Nissan that much. FCA is leveraging the Ram pickup fleet business to prop up the vans. The fullsize ProMaster is so so... FWD has been met with some push back from the fleet market. The midsize C/V is lackluster and will actually compete with its compact ProMaster City sibling (C/V is heavily discounted). The compact ProMaster City is just coming out now but hard to see it will be able to compete with Transit Connect which is well established, and NV200/Chevy City Express, which are positioned as low cost alternative. GM is existing the 1500 van market as we speak and buying rebadged Nissan NV200 just to have something in the compact segment so it lacks any coherent long term strategy here. This is probably the main reason why everyone wants in. Hyundai is seeking to enter the fullsize market with RWD Sprinter/Transit like model. It will be tough for them because they have no existing commercial fleet business in the US and they have little history of selling light commercial vehicles outside of Korea. VW Commercial is a credible player in Europe and South America (unlike Hyundai) and it is Ford's biggest competitor outside the US so they know each other intimately. Given that Ford has already shown the blueprint on what to sell in the US market, I expect VW to bring over the compact Caddy and fullsize Crafter and skip the midsize Transporter. But like Hyundai, VW lacks commercial fleet accounts so it will have to buy its way in with steep discounts. But it probably helps that GM is retreating from the space. Edited March 20, 2015 by bzcat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Seems likely that no one will get all of GM's share, and that Ford stands to get more of it than any other competitor. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 If VW is talking about entering the market now, wouldn't it be fair to say it will be at least 2 years before it happens? How much of the GM void will be left to fill be then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 (edited) VW re-entering commercial market in North America....because their current position in the NA passenger vehicle market is so "right on the money.".... Edited March 20, 2015 by twintornados 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Hah! That sounds a lot like GM logic! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chucky2 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 The same people that buy a work van or work truck from Nissan I'd take even Nissan over VW. I mean, I hope VW tries, as they'd probably bring over their offerings with diesel options, which means I might be able to score a diesel powerplant for a swap down the road more easily. It'd really be nice to have a modern diesel swap option that hopefully has been made to not have the HPFP doom option associated with it. But as a commercial operator? They'd have to be clearly both superior to the Ford offering, and be a good deal cheaper, to consider it coming from VW. The blinker costs alone could put someone under... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 Seems likely that no one will get all of GM's share, and that Ford stands to get more of it than any other competitor. Yes, of course... Ford is the largest player so it stands that when the #2 player exits, the #1 is probably going to suck up most of the market share. GM is still in the 2500 and 3500 van market, as well as cab chassis. But the lack of 1500 van will make it a tough sell on a big part of the fleet market. But more importantly, Transit and Transit Connect sales have demonstrated where the market is headed... fleets want something modern and much more fuel efficient than the dinosaur vans with V8 engine. And Ford's eventual E350/450 replacement will kill off GM's cab chassis sales too. But consider the SWOT analysis from VW or Hyundai's standpoint... GM's exist is once in a lifetime opportunity to try to enter the market. At no other time in my lifetime memory, has there been such an opportunity for a new comer to try to establish some volume in the van market in the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 (edited) You're right about GM's exit. Dodge dropping out of the market 10 years ago wasn't as significant given how crappy their product was (they only sold 36k units in their last full year on the market) Edited March 20, 2015 by RichardJensen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banker55 Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Hah! That sounds a lot like GM logic! Long time boss of Intel, Andy Grove said "Only the paranoid survive." He was a smart man. My first job in the car business was in 1965 and I never gave a second thought to the Germans, the Japanese and least of all the Korean's. Fast forward to 1974 nothing changed, but I started with the Ford Motor Company. Over the next 30 plus years I saw the following assembly plants close ...Los Angeles , San Jose,Mawa, Edison,Norfolk,Atlanta,Twin Cities, Loraine, St. Louis, Oakville Truck, Wayne car, Dearborn Mustang , Wixom and St Thomas . I worked at 8 of these plants plus some that are still open. I won't list all of the supporting Ford Plants that also closed. I never thought of Russia or China as possible competitors. Beware of all of your competitors ,even VW. They know how to build trucks...VW, Scania and Man. Are they a screwed up company? Yes. Can they fix it . Yes . Most of the people I worked with in the above plants thought they had a job for life. Their families and their communities counted on the success of Ford and the local operations and all of the supporting jobs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 I appreciate that. On the other hand, I'm not getting paid to worry about VW. So I'm not going to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 The Ford of today is different to the Ford of the past, perhaps recent turmoil has helped Ford discover who it really is and what competing in the market really means. The reduction in excess capacity and right sizing production and workforce are all good signs that Ford is now lean and efficient, something you need to be to survive on your own in modern business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazerdude20 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 I appreciate that. On the other hand, I'm not getting paid to worry about VW. So I'm not going to. You're getting paid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 You're getting paid? You should see our 401k..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 VW may as well try with commercials, they're seeing precious little growth in NA with their passenger vehicles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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