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Why Ford won't spend 4 Billion on a battery plant??


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As a retired Ford Engineer who worked in the Dearborn/Livonia area my entire career, I can tell you that "One Ford" is a very different place then it used to be 10+ years ago. There is no pure research organization. Research and Advanced have been merged in Ford Research and Innovation Center (FRIC). Same building but very different philosophy.

 

In general, Ford wants to "buy" new technology and apply it to their products. Sadly they don't have the proper middle-level management to do the job, especially in the high tech electronics world (MyFordTouch V1) IMHO, they no longer want to be a technology leader and are content with being a "fast follower" riding on suppliers coat tails.

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The loss of that pure research unit is kind of depressing.

 

I mean, they never had the funding or the freedom that Bell Labs had, but still....

They (Ford) never had the funding, and that's a good thing. My experience (in the bleeding edge software world, patents, etc etc) shows these pure research companies/groups may be great at innovation, but they suck at and are terrible at go-to-market success. So why not leverage multiple companies around the world - and use their budgets (therefore you have 10x on that with 10 potential suppliers), and pick your supplier. I was talking to THE GUY at Samsung in Boston last year on their investments in battery technologies and we discussed a new type of technology that there is zero chance Ford would have blown enough money on. And even then, Samsung didn't buy this technology, or the company, they only invested in it. I want Ford to build great cars. Not be the bleeding edge of everything in every part. I want them to license the best of the best (or close to it) and use their network of dealers and history to sell to consumers.

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they suck at and are terrible at go-to-market success.

 

With Bell Labs, it was kind of a Catch-22. On the one hand, the reason why AT&T had enough money to basically treat Bell Labs like a black hole was because they were a monopoly. On the other hand, that monopoly status meant that they weren't in a position to exploit the profit potential of the transistor, the laser, the solar cell, the cellular phone, UNIX, C, etc.

 

And then, by the late 70s when those restrictions were being eased, their marketing department hadn't had to do any real marketing in decades, and they didn't know how to sell anything.

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Feel free to refute any of my concerns about Tesla's business model.

 

You know, in order to prove that my skepticism of their long-term viability is "NIH syndrome" and not an eminently reasonable conclusion based on their balance sheet, revenue sources, funding mechanisms and the industry as a whole.

Your posts on Tesla go way beyond that of a mere skeptic.
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Your posts on Tesla go way beyond that of a mere skeptic.

 

It's true that I dislike Elon and that I dislike the coverage that his company receives, but that is because of underlying problems with the company itself.

 

I am comfortable disliking Elon for lying about the company's prospects, and I am comfortable disliking journalists who do not perform due diligence with respect to the clearly discernible issues with his company.

 

You are, of course, free to point out the flaws in my analysis of Tesla's business structure which, of course, would make my dislike unreasonable.

 

Until then................

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Can't we all just...just get along here? LOL Seriously though.

 

Elon has succeeded because he takes the risk due to his personal beliefs, and who's beliefs to attempt the execute would NEVER be authorized by a Board - so you do need to cut the man some slack and appreciate what he's done. Is he a sales guy - over selling. Yep! But, ya gotta love his enthusiasm for spending almost ALL of his personal fortune on rockets, with his only money left for one final launch after a string of failures and explosions, and having that rocket not blow up. Like...wow. That's why I like the guy. Balls to the wall guts and risks.

 

Now...his cars are another story. I've driven the S, balls to the wall too. And, came away impressed with the acceleration, ( I raced a Panamera too) and came away realizing they still had no clue on many things. From a stint in the rear, the car dog tracked...and their switchgear, materials, and finish wasn't up to other $100K cars.

 

Love the guy. Love the movie on the construction of the plant. It's on-line BTW. Not a fan of the car - or the X. It's just me. And, I don't care what his TSLA stock price is. I don't follow it, nor care. They are disrupting the industry - and that's great. It was ripe for that.

 

And, if F and GM do make the Bolt type products in 2 years, I'll be the first to order it.

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Elon has succeeded because he takes the risk due to his personal beliefs,

 

His personal beliefs----and other people's money. Granted, it should be assumed that investors are doing their due diligence. Still, with complicit--if not fawning--coverage of him and his company...... Have you seen the CR review of the Model S? How last year they gave it an "almost perfect" score, and this year they gave it a "better than perfect" score despite the fact that owners routinely have difficulty even getting INTO the vehicle?

 

And this cult of personality..... There's an excellent article taking that all down in the MIT Technology Review: http://www.technologyreview.com/review/539861/techs-enduring-great-man-myth/

 

See, I agree with you, Musk is a salesman. And if people, in general, realized that, his puffery would get all the attention it deserves. However, you and I both know that he is treated more like an oracle than a sales rep for his company. And it irks the part of me that prefers to see honesty and hard work rewarded over smoke and mirrors.

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Have you seen the CR review of the Model S? How last year they gave it an "almost perfect" score, and this year they gave it a "better than perfect" score despite the fact that owners routinely have difficulty even getting INTO the vehicle?

 

 

You’re being too kind. Autoline Daily took the time to thoroughly read the CR report and here’s their summary of things-gone-wrong with the Model S:

1) Drivetrain problems

2) Power Equipment problems

3) Charging equipment problems

4) Information screen problems

5) Body and sunroof squeaks, rattles and leaks

6) Electric motors need somewhat frequent replacement.

7) Brake rotors tend to warp

8) Inoperable wipers and door handles

9) Leaking battery cooling pump

10) Wheel alignment issues

11) Door and hatch seams don’t line up

All this for $100,000.

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Well all I will say (as a relatively new poster to the BOF) is that I have been a very VERY loyal Ford friend and fan for many decades and I've been reading this board for 5 years. I think Bill and his team know Smoke from a Mirror - but we all stand in awe when complete BS can head to the top of the heap and garner the most press and the highest investment $ per pound of equity flesh. Bravo to you Elon.

 

Let's just say, this goose isn't cooked yet.

 

Let's see what Bill and Mark and the team put on the fire for us to eat.

 

Oh. And, if someone here can get me on the list for a GT, for Christ's sake, message me. :-) I'll kick any Telsa's ass with it all day long. Just get me in the drivers seat will ya?

Edited by Steveottawa
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