More info on upcoming Rivian-derived Ford product

[jpd80]

3 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

 

Good mix? Absolutely, they will be hitting every segment except a BEV sedan. Over the course of the next three model years Ford/Lincoln will introduce, at a minimum, 1) a sporty BEV Mustang crossover, 2) a BEV full sized pickup, 3) a BEV Transit van, 4) a large flagship super luxury BEV SUV, 4) a mid-sized mainstream BEV crossover, and 5) a mid-sized luxury BEV crossover. And that doesn't even count the BEVs Ford and VW will be jointly developing for the European market. By MY 2023, Ford and Lincoln might have more BEV models on the market than Tesla. Can FMC find enough batteries for all of them? Will they be class-leading products and can FMC sell enough of therm to take significant BEV market share away from Tesla? How fast does the BEV market grow? And how soon will they become profit centers for the company? We'll see.

Man, all those BEVs and a fully refreshed ICE vehicle line up, what a turnaround from the Fields tenure. It's breath taking

 

Wall Street  refuses to see it.

 

[bzcat]

7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Man, all those BEVs and a fully refreshed ICE vehicle line up, what a turnaround from the Fields tenure. It's breath taking

 

Wall Street  refuses to see it.

 

 

Wall Street can see it, they understand the products are coming. They just don't believe Ford can deliver the profits. 

 

Ford's stock price basically hasn't moved in 10 years. It's a good dividend stock but there is no growth story here. Wall Street doesn't believe in Ford's ability to grow and it's got a pretty good case... For example, Ford was literally the only car company losing money in China during the boom years prior to the market downturn there. 

[akirby]

MOW and quality has been and continues to be a big drag on profits.  

[Harley Lover]

15 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

Can FMC find enough batteries for all of them? 

 

I'd like to see discussion on this topic - with GM having announced its intention to build a battery plant (partnered with one of the Japanese battery companies) in the U.S., at what point will Ford make the same decision and elect to build (or partner) in a new battery plant? It doesn't make sense to me that Ford would go for too long without doing this, but I wonder what their tipping point will be? Maybe they are waiting to see if Toyota can bring solid state batteries to market?

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Harley Lover said:

 

I'd like to see discussion on this topic - with GM having announced its intention to build a battery plant (partnered with one of the Japanese battery companies) in the U.S., at what point will Ford make the same decision and elect to build (or partner) in a new battery plant? It doesn't make sense to me that Ford would go for too long without doing this, but I wonder what their tipping point will be? Maybe they are waiting to see if Toyota can bring solid state batteries to market?

 

I believe they're partnering with Rivian and VW and they've already secured batteries for the BEVs in development now (F150, Transit, Mach-E and the other 3 utilities).   They're probably taking a wait and see approach over the next year or so as viable non-Tesla vehicles hit the market.  I'm positive they have a long term plan for battery capacity.  There was a mention of new batteries so maybe that is part of the delay.   And they've been buying batteries since 2005 - this isn't new.  

[bzcat]

Tesla makes its battery in a JV with Panasonic so technically, it is just buying capacity in a very expensive way. The only car company in the world that is making its own batteries completely in-house is BYD and it is because BYD is originally a battery company. They started making vehicles in a classic move up the value chain as a vertical integration play.

 

Most car companies are looking at batteries market and concluding that it is (or will be) a relatively low margin commodity business. You can hedge commodity prices in many different ways. One of them is entering into long term supply contracts. Another is to build a factory with your supplier to secure some type of exclusive supply. It's not different than how car companies procure say... transmission. Some build a JV with Getrag or Aisin or ZF. Some just buy them from the same three or four companies. A few makes them in-house. 

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by bzcat

[Harley Lover]

47 minutes ago, bzcat said:

Tesla makes its battery in a JV with Panasonic so technically, it is just buying capacity in a very expensive way. The only car company in the world that is making its own batteries completely in-house is BYD and it is because BYD is originally a battery company. They started making vehicles in a classic move up the value chain as a vertical integration play.

 

Most car companies are looking at batteries market and concluding that it is (or will be) a relatively low margin commodity business. You can hedge commodity prices in many different ways. One of them is entering into long term supply contracts. Another is to build a factory with your supplier to secure some type of exclusive supply. It's not different than how car companies procure say... transmission. Some build a JV with Getrag or Aisin or ZF. Some just buy them from the same three or four companies. A few makes them in-house. 

 

 

There appears to be almost a land rush to build EV battery factories in Europe, led by Chinese and Japanese concerns:  https://de.reuters.com/article/us-autos-batteries-europe-factbox/factbox-plans-for-electric-car-battery-production-in-europe-idUKKCN1J10N8

 

I guess this (plans in Europe for EV battery factories) makes sense, given the headlong rush to EV's in Europe (driven by government mandate). If Europe represents a prediction for what will occur in the U.S. as EV's ramp up in terms of market penetration, it would appear that your suggestion about how most car companies will view EV batteries makes a lot of sense - at most, in Europe the car companies might have a partial ownership stake in the battery plant, but it appears that the battery companies are building with supply commitments in mind.

 

I guess this brings us back to GM. It's interesting that they apparently feel the need to establish a joint venture plant for their EV supply - perhaps this is the only way they could ensure a supply in the amount they believe they will need to support their sales projections for mid decade 2020's?

[BarneyFord]

https://electrek.co/2020/02/11/tesla-building-pilot-battery-cell-manufacturing-line-fremont/

and add this 

https://electrek.co/2020/02/07/tesla-aluminum-alloys-die-casting-in-electric-car-parts/

Edited February 13, 2020 by barney9014

[bzcat]

12 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

 

There appears to be almost a land rush to build EV battery factories in Europe, led by Chinese and Japanese concerns:  https://de.reuters.com/article/us-autos-batteries-europe-factbox/factbox-plans-for-electric-car-battery-production-in-europe-idUKKCN1J10N8

 

I guess this (plans in Europe for EV battery factories) makes sense, given the headlong rush to EV's in Europe (driven by government mandate). If Europe represents a prediction for what will occur in the U.S. as EV's ramp up in terms of market penetration, it would appear that your suggestion about how most car companies will view EV batteries makes a lot of sense - at most, in Europe the car companies might have a partial ownership stake in the battery plant, but it appears that the battery companies are building with supply commitments in mind.

 

I guess this brings us back to GM. It's interesting that they apparently feel the need to establish a joint venture plant for their EV supply - perhaps this is the only way they could ensure a supply in the amount they believe they will need to support their sales projections for mid decade 2020's?

 

It's not wrong to want to secure the supplies. Like I said, you can either lock in the supply in long term contracts or form a JV with your Tier 1 supplier to make sure you get your share. 

 

Most car makers don't consider batteries a value added activity so they are relying on battery companies to make the cells. It's very similar to the procurement model of transmission which I already explained. Most car companies are concentrating on designing the electric motors or the software that integrates the drive systems - things that customers will have more value association with the car companies. 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2020 by bzcat

[jpd80]

32 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

It's not wrong to want to secure the supplies. Like I said, you can either lock in the supply in long term contracts or form a JV with your Tier 1 supplier to make sure you get your share. 

 

Most car makers don't consider batteries a value added activity so they are relying on battery companies to make the cells. It's very similar to the procurement model of transmission which I already explained. Most car companies are concentrating on designing the electric motors or the software that integrates the drive systems - things that customers will have more value association with the car companies. 

Perhaps a little pain with battery supply is a healthy reminder to carmakers to secure supply well ahead of time.

[poltergiest]

I remember GM showing the prototype with a skateboard chassis....then they made the volt????