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1 hour ago, kyle said:

Ford to Spend $1 Billion in Biggest South Africa Investment (msn.com)

 

So this is where they are allocating resources....have no idea what that market looks like but likely better chance of a ROI than Brazil. 

 

What I find funny - well, actually, sad and hard to understand - is that they are spending 4 times as much here... $4.2 billions...

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Isn't SA where they source Rangers from for other markets?

 

Currently, the SA Ranger is sold only in Africa. Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pac get their Ranger from Thailand.

 

But looks like that may change as the article says Ford is adding VW Amarok production to Ranger in SA... so SA has been selected as the next gen Ranger/Amarok production center.

 

These things don't happen in isolation... I think this means Ford is also going to pull down manufacturing in Argentina and maybe shut down one of its 2 plants in Thailand. 

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2 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

Currently, the SA Ranger is sold only in Africa. Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pac get their Ranger from Thailand.

 

But looks like that may change as the article says Ford is adding VW Amarok production to Ranger in SA... so SA has been selected as the next gen Ranger/Amarok production center.

 

These things don't happen in isolation... I think this means Ford is also going to pull down manufacturing in Argentina and maybe shut down one of its 2 plants in Thailand. 

Argentina supplies roughly 100k Rangers to Latin America, so a pull out mightn't occur right away,

not until the next generation Ranger arrives. Even then, I doubt that South Africa could cover so many

markets for Ranger/Amarok, Africa, Europe and South America is a big ask.

 

 

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6 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

Currently, the SA Ranger is sold only in Africa. Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pac get their Ranger from Thailand.

 

But looks like that may change as the article says Ford is adding VW Amarok production to Ranger in SA... so SA has been selected as the next gen Ranger/Amarok production center.

 

These things don't happen in isolation... I think this means Ford is also going to pull down manufacturing in Argentina and maybe shut down one of its 2 plants in Thailand. 

 

European Ranger will come from South Africa.

 

Ford already announced an expansion for Argentina production. https://en.mercopress.com/2020/12/03/ford-plans-to-invest-us-500-million-in-argentina-to-launch-its-new-ranger-model

 

Ford also isn't cutting Thai production. Ranger is becoming Ford's F-150 for global markets in sales since the T6 landed. 

 

 

This must be the 3rd or 4th major expansion of the S. African plant. It used to only make roughly 25-30k Rangers and Bantams at one time. Now, capacity will be over 200k units. 

Edited by ausrutherford
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3 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Argentina supplies roughly 100k Rangers to Latin America, so a pull out mightn't occur right away,

not until the next generation Ranger arrives. Even then, I doubt that South Africa could cover so many

markets for Ranger/Amarok, Africa, Europe and South America is a big ask.

 

 

 

I think between South Africa and Thailand, Ford can produce half a million pickup trucks. Also I suspect Jianling Ford will be part of the mix for next gen Ranger since they already have Everest. Add the US plant which can probably cover ~20k for Mexico and you can see maybe Argentina won't be needed. 

 

I hope I'm wrong BTW... hate to see Ford leave South America completely. Ford has had assembly operation continuously there for over 80 years and survived some lean years of the region's rightwing Govt's gross mismanagement of economy that resulted in hyperinflation, and the infamous AutoLatina debacle. 

Edited by bzcat
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12 minutes ago, ausrutherford said:

 

European Ranger will come from South Africa.

 

Ford already announced an expansion for Argentina production. https://en.mercopress.com/2020/12/03/ford-plans-to-invest-us-500-million-in-argentina-to-launch-its-new-ranger-model

 

Ford also isn't cutting Thai production. Ranger is becoming Ford's F-150 for global markets in sales since the T6 landed. 

 

 

This must be the 3rd or 4th major expansion of the S. African plant. It used to only make roughly 25-30k Rangers and Bantams at one time. Now, capacity will be over 200k units. 

 

Right, I forgot about this so Argentina may be safe. And you are right... Ranger is very important product for Ford globally. 

 

Well, that opens the question about Thailand...

 

Ford has two plants there - Ranger is in one and Focus is in the other. If Thailand gives way to South Africa on export to Europe then there is probably enough room to add another product to the Ranger plant... (they already have Everest). Maybe Ford will move Focus and consolidate into one plant? The Focus plant is currently very under utilized.

Edited by bzcat
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4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Argentina supplies roughly 100k Rangers to Latin America, so a pull out mightn't occur right away,

 

I'm not sure about this number. Argentina seems to have produced 900k along 25 years.

It also seems that Argentina sales are around 15k and that it represents around 30% of total production.

(https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fsa/ar/es/news/2020/09/ford-argentina-celebra-la-produccion-de-la-ranger-900-000-en-pla.html).

So the production could be half of that, around 50k.

 

With Ranger sales in Brazil going down, one could see a drop by 20k in that number - considering the Camaçari debacle doesn't affect other regional markets as well...

 

Also, it's worth mentioning that VW is not chipping in with the Amarok here.

 

Unfortunately, Ford is making Ranger's business case very difficult to work in South America.

 

Edited by passis
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6 hours ago, passis said:

 

I'm not sure about this number. Argentina seems to have produced 900k along 25 years.

It also seems that Argentina sales are around 15k and that it represents around 30% of total production.

(https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fsa/ar/es/news/2020/09/ford-argentina-celebra-la-produccion-de-la-ranger-900-000-en-pla.html).

So the production could be half of that, around 50k.

 

With Ranger sales in Brazil going down, one could see a drop by 20k in that number - considering the Camaçari debacle doesn't affect other regional markets as well...

 

Also, it's worth mentioning that VW is not chipping in with the Amarok here.

 

Unfortunately, Ford is making Ranger's business case very difficult to work in South America.

 

You're correct, I mistook some quarterly sales data as monthly so 50k is probably a fair estimate,

Hilux got close to 100,000 sales, it was 91,756  for 11 months up to the end of November.

What gives that some perspective is worldwide sales in 2020:

Ranger............290,746

Hilux...............323,287

Tacoma..........252,842

Edited by jpd80
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On 2/2/2021 at 7:41 PM, passis said:

 

I'm not sure about this number. Argentina seems to have produced 900k along 25 years.

It also seems that Argentina sales are around 15k and that it represents around 30% of total production.

(https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fsa/ar/es/news/2020/09/ford-argentina-celebra-la-produccion-de-la-ranger-900-000-en-pla.html).

So the production could be half of that, around 50k.

 

With Ranger sales in Brazil going down, one could see a drop by 20k in that number - considering the Camaçari debacle doesn't affect other regional markets as well...

 

Also, it's worth mentioning that VW is not chipping in with the Amarok here.

 

Unfortunately, Ford is making Ranger's business case very difficult to work in South America.

 

 

By South Africa taking over European sourcing for the Ranger, that frees up production for Thailand to allow more supply in ASEAN and Middle East.

 

Expanding South Africa allows a sales expansion, not a capacity reduction elsewhere.

 

 

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On 2/2/2021 at 7:41 PM, passis said:

 

I'm not sure about this number. Argentina seems to have produced 900k along 25 years.

It also seems that Argentina sales are around 15k and that it represents around 30% of total production.

(https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fsa/ar/es/news/2020/09/ford-argentina-celebra-la-produccion-de-la-ranger-900-000-en-pla.html).

So the production could be half of that, around 50k.

 

With Ranger sales in Brazil going down, one could see a drop by 20k in that number - considering the Camaçari debacle doesn't affect other regional markets as well...

 

Also, it's worth mentioning that VW is not chipping in with the Amarok here.

 

Unfortunately, Ford is making Ranger's business case very difficult to work in South America.

 

 

If Brazilian sales do go down, they can shift supply to other markets in South America, where Ranger sales have been capacity constrained thus far. 

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5 hours ago, ausrutherford said:

 

By South Africa taking over European sourcing for the Ranger, that frees up production for Thailand to allow more supply in ASEAN and Middle East.

 

Expanding South Africa allows a sales expansion, not a capacity reduction elsewhere.

 

 

 

Yes, I think this makes sense now after I looked up the capacity of each plant that produces the Ranger. Ford is obviously thinking growth, plus taking on the volume from Amarok.

 

I found a source that said Ford made 37k Ranger in Argentina last year for Latin America markets... https://en.mercopress.com/2020/12/03/ford-plans-to-invest-us-500-million-in-argentina-to-launch-its-new-ranger-model 

With the new investment maybe Ford will double the Ranger production to 70k? Just a guess.

 

Silverton South Africa will have 200k capacity after expansion. Souce: https://www.reuters.com/article/ford-motor-safrica/update-2-ford-to-invest-1-bln-to-upgrade-south-africa-operations-idUSL8N2K82GY 

 

Autoalliance Thailand has capacity of 270k but split 50/50 with Mazda so Ford can make 135k Ranger and Everest. Ford is capacity constrained here because the arrangement with Mazda. Souce: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1813289/mazda-budgets-b1bn-to-refresh-aat-plant

 

Michigan has capacity of 250k if I recall... can't really find any data on the production capacity.

 

So add them up:

Michigan: 250k

South Africa: 200k

Thailand: 135k

Argentina: 70k

Total: 655k

 

655k split over Ranger, Everest, Bronco, and Amarok is significant but not crazy.

 

The wildcard here is whether Jiangling Ford will jump in with Ranger production in China. The pickup market is ripe for growth in China and Ford already makes the Everest and JMC Yuhu and Baodian pickup there. 

Edited by bzcat
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14 hours ago, ausrutherford said:

 

If Brazilian sales do go down, they can shift supply to other markets in South America, where Ranger sales have been capacity constrained thus far. 

 

Now is the perfect time to go after those markets. Can you name a few? 

 

Ranger sales have been hit even harder than the Ka in Brazil last month - so there should be lots of extra capacity in Pacheco from now on, as pickup buyers value reliability.

 

https://www.mobiauto.com.br/revista/amp/ford-vendas-de-ranger-e-territory-estao-caindo-mais-que-as-do-ka/577

 

Hopefully those markets can compensate Ford going out of business in Brazil.

 

In any case, Ranger prospects globally are very good. Being conservative for this matter I'd just forget about south American NG Ranger until I see it with my own eyes (Zero faith in last year's official announcement). But those 50k shouldn't affect much when you see the full picture. 

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17 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

Yes, I think this makes sense now after I looked up the capacity of each plant that produces the Ranger. Ford is obviously thinking growth, plus taking on the volume from Amarok.

 

I found a source that said Ford made 37k Ranger in Argentina last year for Latin America markets... https://en.mercopress.com/2020/12/03/ford-plans-to-invest-us-500-million-in-argentina-to-launch-its-new-ranger-model 

With the new investment maybe Ford will double the Ranger production to 70k? Just a guess.

 

Silverton South Africa will have 200k capacity after expansion. Souce: https://www.reuters.com/article/ford-motor-safrica/update-2-ford-to-invest-1-bln-to-upgrade-south-africa-operations-idUSL8N2K82GY 

 

Autoalliance Thailand has capacity of 270k but split 50/50 with Mazda so Ford can make 135k Ranger and Everest. Ford is capacity constrained here because the arrangement with Mazda. Souce: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1813289/mazda-budgets-b1bn-to-refresh-aat-plant

 

Michigan has capacity of 250k if I recall... can't really find any data on the production capacity.

 

So add them up:

Michigan: 250k

South Africa: 200k

Thailand: 135k

Argentina: 70k

Total: 655k

 

655k split over Ranger, Everest, Bronco, and Amarok is significant but not crazy.

 

The wildcard here is whether Jiangling Ford will jump in with Ranger production in China. The pickup market is ripe for growth in China and Ford already makes the Everest and JMC Yuhu and Baodian pickup there. 

 

AutoAlliance Thailand is dead. Ford and Mazda split the plants up. Mazda now now sources the BT-50 from Isuzu instead. 

 

The Ranger/Everest plant is now 100% Ford. 

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8 hours ago, passis said:

 

Now is the perfect time to go after those markets. Can you name a few? 

 

Ranger sales have been hit even harder than the Ka in Brazil last month - so there should be lots of extra capacity in Pacheco from now on, as pickup buyers value reliability.

 

https://www.mobiauto.com.br/revista/amp/ford-vendas-de-ranger-e-territory-estao-caindo-mais-que-as-do-ka/577

 

Hopefully those markets can compensate Ford going out of business in Brazil.

 

In any case, Ranger prospects globally are very good. Being conservative for this matter I'd just forget about south American NG Ranger until I see it with my own eyes (Zero faith in last year's official announcement). But those 50k shouldn't affect much when you see the full picture. 

 

Of course many South American markets were down even before COVID. Brazil thanks to political leadership (spending billions for stadiums and paying bribes for the World Cup and Olympics have still taken their economic toll), but there are opportunities such as Chile, Peru, etc where they can expand. 

 

Ford targeted the Hilux specifically with the T6 Ranger, and it matched it very well expect for one aspect...global production capacity. With the new Ranger, Ford is starting to fix that with these two capacity expansion announcements.

 

And that announcement last year...its was in mid-December. Less than 2 months old and only about a month before they announced ending Brazilian production. They knew about the Brazil decision and still announced the Ranger plant expansion. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ausrutherford said:

Of course many South American markets were down even before COVID. Brazil thanks to political leadership (spending billions for stadiums and paying bribes for the World Cup and Olympics have still taken their economic toll), but there are opportunities such as Chile, Peru, etc where they can expand. 

 

Ford targeted the Hilux specifically with the T6 Ranger, and it matched it very well expect for one aspect...global production capacity. With the new Ranger, Ford is starting to fix that with these two capacity expansion announcements.

 

And that announcement last year...its was in mid-December. Less than 2 months old and only about a month before they announced ending Brazilian production. They knew about the Brazil decision and still announced the Ranger plant expansion.

 

 

Also in December Ford had a meeting with dealers in Brazil and they were all excited about the new products in Camaçari. At this point, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they announced the cancellation of the expansion. Not just Brazil, but Mahindra and Zotye are gone too.

 

I'm not familiar with the numbers involved in terms of break-even production, but they're investing $1 billion in South Africa for massive production and $600 million in Argentina for a very questionable output - in the best scenario they keep what they have now, replacing Brazil with Chile, Peru. etc. Either I am very bad at math or this plan is not viable. Especially when you're already spending $4.1 billion to abandon an important regional market. To me, these are very mixed messages.

 

You're absolutely right in pointing Brazilian economical problems, but other carmakers managed to make some money in the last decade, prior to Covid. Even competitors that were new to the market and had smaller scale production (Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, Jeep). It's painful to see Ford with great products and engineering having such a poor understanding of the market.

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18 hours ago, ausrutherford said:

 

AutoAlliance Thailand is dead. Ford and Mazda split the plants up. Mazda now now sources the BT-50 from Isuzu instead. 

 

The Ranger/Everest plant is now 100% Ford. 

 

Mazda still owns 50% of AutoAlliance Thailand and uses it to build Mazda 2 and 3 and CX30. You can check out AAT's website... 

https://www.autoalliance.co.th/en/about_profile.php

 

about_pic02.jpg

 

But the point I made wasn't about ownership. It was about capacity... the plant has nominal capacity of 270k vehicles (combined Ford and Mazda output) from the article I linked. So the Ford side has in theory 135k max output or there about.

 

Ford owns 100% of the Focus assembly plant which is not far away from Autoalliance. 

Edited by bzcat
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5 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

Mazda still owns 50% of AutoAlliance Thailand and uses it to build Mazda 2 and 3 and CX30. You can check out AAT's website... 

https://www.autoalliance.co.th/en/about_profile.php

 

about_pic02.jpg

 

But the point I made wasn't about ownership. It was about capacity... the plant has nominal capacity of 270k vehicles (combined Ford and Mazda output) from the article I linked. So the Ford side has in theory 135k max output or there about.

 

Ford owns 100% of the Focus assembly plant which is not far away from Autoalliance. 

 

Sorry, I could have sworn all 3 had been broken up. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

I don't get it.  They've been implementing $10 billion dollar restructuring and cost cutting every 5 years for the last 40 years.  Who comes up with these bloated figures and actually implements them?  The cost cutting should have been over with after the first wave!!  If they'd stop putting billions into new unneeded plants, they wouldn't have to shut them down 10 years later! 

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On 2/6/2021 at 4:59 AM, bzcat said:

 

But the point I made wasn't about ownership. It was about capacity... the plant has nominal capacity of 270k vehicles (combined Ford and Mazda output) from the article I linked. So the Ford side has in theory 135k max output or there about.

 

Ford owns 100% of the Focus assembly plant which is not far away from Autoalliance. 

You mean Ford Thailand Manufacturing, that plant has been building Rangers since 2016 and stopped Focus in 2018.

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4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

You mean Ford Thailand Manufacturing, that plant has been building Rangers since 2016 and stopped Focus in 2018.

 

So Ford is building Ranger in both plants in Thailand? Where is Australia getting its Focus from now days? 

 

I just checked Ford Thailand's website and sure looks like Ford is only selling Ranger and Everest there now.  I guess this is Farley's plan for the rest of the emerging markets. ?

 

https://www.ford.co.th/en/#

 

Edit: I wonder how Maverick could fit in Ford's plan in Southeast Asia... or Australia and South Africa for that matter. Don't know if RHD engineering was preserved but given the C2 roots, shouldn't be too hard to do. Worst case, they can put the RHD Escape interior in there. 

Edited by bzcat
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1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

So Ford is building Ranger in both plants in Thailand? Where is Australia getting its Focus from now days? 

 

I just checked Ford Thailand's website and sure looks like Ford is only selling Ranger and Everest there now.  I guess this is Farley's plan for the rest of the emerging markets. ?

 

https://www.ford.co.th/en/#

 

Edit: I wonder how Maverick could fit in Ford's plan in Southeast Asia... or Australia and South Africa for that matter. Don't know if RHD engineering was preserved but given the C2 roots, shouldn't be too hard to do. Worst case, they can put the RHD Escape interior in there. 

I doubt that a RHD Maverick was even considered 

 

Australia’s supply of Focus comes from Germany, they only sell ST Line, Active and ST.

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