July 2007 Fullsize Truck Sales

[waymondospiff]

Model - - June / TY vs. LY / YTD / TY vs. LY

 

F-150 - - - - - 65,156 / -0.5% / 355,438 / -11.2%

Mark LT - - - - 756 / -22.4% / 4,332 / -33.9%

 

Silverado - - - 44,955 / -26.4% / 310,896 / -2.0%

Avalanche - - - 4,327 / -16.5% / 28,567 / +52.4%

Sierra - - - - - 15,187 / -29.2% / 99,293 / -2.3%

Escalade EXT - 601 / +6.6% / 4,021 / +82.0%

 

Ram - - - - - - 31,114 / -4% / 185,287 / +1%

 

Tundra - - - - - 21,727 / +137.2% / 82,840 / +42.3%

 

Titan - - - - - - 4,405 / -21.8% / 33,073 / -15.9%

 

F-150 continues to be the best seller, with a sold 20K unit advantage over the Silverado in June. But YTD sales tell a graver story with Ford taking the biggest sales hit this year except for Nissan. And of course, when combined, GM still sells by far the greatest number of fullsize trucks.

 

Scott

[jpd80]

The interesting thing I see with sales is Toyota in the Truck market offering strong incentives.

Is Toyota about to slice the fat from GM, Ford and Chrysler's main profit earners, their truck divisions?

 

As I see it, a cashed up Toyota could financially cripple Detroit with incentives in the right place

and all it would only cost them is a couple billion to do it.

 

Am I reading too much into only one month's incentives and results or are they on a mission?

[wescoent]

Those are some pretty strong sales figures from Toyota... especially in comparison to the Titan, which seems to have dropped off the face of the earth.

 

However, Toyota executives from their NA truck program just got caught with their pants down. The market is turning against recreational trucks just as they completed a multi-billion dollar plant in Texas, and incentives are the only way to keep sales up as they take huge losses.

 

This is an arms race Toyota can't win. Ford and GM are going to hold onto their truck customers, and are prepared to spend big bucks to make their trucks the best in the world, period. Toyota is 30 years behind on developing American pickup trucks, and experience is something money can't buy. The only reason they captured other markets from Detrot is because Detroit was making pathetically crappy products, which is NOT the case with big trucks. The Silverado is a better truck than the Tundra, and the F-150 is going to blow both away in 2009. Every time Toyota makes gains, Ford and GM are going to dust them with new models. Toyota is going to have to accept a role as a niche player in the North American truck market sooner or later... it just depends on how many billions they want to lose.

[DCK]

Those are some pretty strong sales figures from Toyota... especially in comparison to the Titan, which seems to have dropped off the face of the earth.

 

However, Toyota executives from their NA truck program just got caught with their pants down. The market is turning against recreational trucks just as they completed a multi-billion dollar plant in Texas, and incentives are the only way to keep sales up as they take huge losses.

 

This is an arms race Toyota can't win. Ford and GM are going to hold onto their truck customers, and are prepared to spend big bucks to make their trucks the best in the world, period. Toyota is 30 years behind on developing American pickup trucks, and experience is something money can't buy. The only reason they captured other markets from Detrot is because Detroit was making pathetically crappy products, which is NOT the case with big trucks. The Silverado is a better truck than the Tundra, and the F-150 is going to blow both away in 2009. Every time Toyota makes gains, Ford and GM are going to dust them with new models. Toyota is going to have to accept a role as a niche player in the North American truck market sooner or later... it just depends on how many billions they want to lose.

I think it is absolutely dumb to discount Toyota in the Large truck segment........I think Ford and GM can hold it out, but they need to not be blind to the fact that Toyota has a real shot at harming the only segment detroit still holds. And this talk about Ford and GM spending big bucks to make their truck the best, Ford and GM don't have big bucks to spend................but money =/= best truck, smart design and desicions will lead to that.

[96 Pony]

When is the redesign for the F150 scheduled for?

 

I think it is absolutely dumb to discount Toyota in the Large truck segment

 

Anyone who discounts the Tundra and Titans early low sales is foolish. That is the same mentality that cost the Big 3 car sales and got us to to where we are now.

Edited July 7, 2007 by 96 Pony

[grbeck]

This is an arms race Toyota can't win. Ford and GM are going to hold onto their truck customers, and are prepared to spend big bucks to make their trucks the best in the world, period. Toyota is 30 years behind on developing American pickup trucks, and experience is something money can't buy. The only reason they captured other markets from Detrot is because Detroit was making pathetically crappy products, which is NOT the case with big trucks. The Silverado is a better truck than the Tundra, and the F-150 is going to blow both away in 2009. Every time Toyota makes gains, Ford and GM are going to dust them with new models. Toyota is going to have to accept a role as a niche player in the North American truck market sooner or later... it just depends on how many billions they want to lose.

 

Can't buy that. Toyota has the cash reserves to stick with the Tundra, even if sales aren't initially that hot. Plus, Toyota still makes money on its other vehicles, so it can afford to "buy" sales for the Tundra in the face of stiff competition, while making steady improvements to the Tundra.

 

The F-150 and Silverado/Sierra have been the cash cows for their respective companies. If the profit margins on those vehicles are reduced (or, even worse, eliminated) because of increased competition and/or a declining market, then GM and Ford are in real trouble.

 

There will be some casualties in this market...but I see Nissan and Dodge as being the first to go. Dodge is virtually giving its trucks away right now; hence the uptick in sales. This can't continue.

 

But GM and Ford are going to have to work harder than ever just to hold on to their present position in this market.

[bystander]

Those are some pretty strong sales figures from Toyota... especially in comparison to the Titan, which seems to have dropped off the face of the earth.

 

However, Toyota executives from their NA truck program just got caught with their pants down. The market is turning against recreational trucks just as they completed a multi-billion dollar plant in Texas, and incentives are the only way to keep sales up as they take huge losses.

 

This is an arms race Toyota can't win. Ford and GM are going to hold onto their truck customers, and are prepared to spend big bucks to make their trucks the best in the world, period. Toyota is 30 years behind on developing American pickup trucks, and experience is something money can't buy. The only reason they captured other markets from Detrot is because Detroit was making pathetically crappy products, which is NOT the case with big trucks. The Silverado is a better truck than the Tundra, and the F-150 is going to blow both away in 2009. Every time Toyota makes gains, Ford and GM are going to dust them with new models. Toyota is going to have to accept a role as a niche player in the North American truck market sooner or later... it just depends on how many billions they want to lose.

 

 

"Toyota is 30 years behind on developing American pickup trucks, and experience is something money can't buy."

 

By that rationale, Toyota would have never caught GM and overtaken them as the world's largest producer of cars and trucks. Toyota has just unveiled their third generation attempt to crack the full-size pickup market. Usually, by the third or fourth generation product, the Japanese automakers (particularly Toyota and Honda) have pretty well zeroed in on the target. It happened with minivans, it happened with family sedans. It will happen with trucks. Each model redesign arrives with fewer and fewer weaknesses until they are completely competitive. The latest Tundra may have reached that point. It already leads in powertrains.

 

 

"Toyota is going to have to accept a role as a niche player in the North American truck market sooner or later... it just depends on how many billions they want to lose."

 

Yeah, they really seem to have stalled out, with a ~40+% gain in sales. Toyota has deep pockets from its highly profitable operations. They can afford to buy market share in the full-size pickup market if they want to. And it sure does undercut the former Big 3's cashflow from pickups when a strong competitor enters the market with an aggressively-marketed, competent product.

[silvrsvt]

"Toyota is 30 years behind on developing American pickup trucks, and experience is something money can't buy."

 

By that rationale, Toyota would have never caught GM and overtaken them as the world's largest producer of cars and trucks. Toyota has just unveiled their third generation attempt to crack the full-size pickup market. Usually, by the third or fourth generation product, the Japanese automakers (particularly Toyota and Honda) have pretty well zeroed in on the target. It happened with minivans, it happened with family sedans. It will happen with trucks. Each model redesign arrives with fewer and fewer weaknesses until they are completely competitive. The latest Tundra may have reached that point. It already leads in powertrains.

 

But your forgetting they still are on their 3-4th truck design and still has alot of faults to it.

 

"Toyota is going to have to accept a role as a niche player in the North American truck market sooner or later... it just depends on how many billions they want to lose."

 

Yeah, they really seem to have stalled out, with a ~40+% gain in sales. Toyota has deep pockets from its highly profitable operations. They can afford to buy market share in the full-size pickup market if they want to. And it sure does undercut the former Big 3's cashflow from pickups when a strong competitor enters the market with an aggressively-marketed, competent product.

 

What was the relation of sales this year vs last year...same thing happened last year when the RAV4 came out..it had nearly 50% sales then it did the prior year, yet the new Escape outsells it only 2 months into its new body style.

 

The 40% number looks impressive but they still don't even have half the amout of sales of the smallest Detroit manufacture of trucks..once they start making more trucks then Dodge does, you might be on to something

[jpd80]

Toyota isn't about just gaining market percentage, they want to dry up Ford and GM's easy revenue.

 

Let's say Toyota decides bank roll big ($5,000) incentives on 160,000-200,000/year Tundras.

To Toyota, it's $1 Billion well spent particularly if they rob another 100,000 sales.

 

The affect on Ford and GM had to lay $5,000 incentives on 500,000-600,000/year of their trucks,

would be like $2.5 Billion in lost profit for each maker.

 

Do you think Toyota would entertain using incentives to do that?

Edited July 8, 2007 by jpd80

[kyle]

Anyone who discounts Toyota, Nissan or any other manufacturer is crazy and definitely not being realistic. No one is 30 years behind.

 

And don't forget that Toyota is making money when they put $5k on the hood.

 

As for the "faults" of the current product....they all have deficiencies compared to each other and that will continue. You can't have the thickest frame, biggest tow hooks, largest motor, etc and still get good gas mileage and be priced competitively.

 

Regarding the sales.....the Super Duty version has been a tremondous success in the market which would be even better if the housing market was not in such a slump....the F150 needs attention asap but at least it is getting continuous improvements-

 

Still a long way to go this year but Ford has great dealer's-they definitely are not rolling over!

[Edstock]

Anyone who discounts Toyota, Nissan or any other manufacturer is crazy and definitely not being realistic. No one is 30 years behind.

 

And don't forget that Toyota is making money when they put $5k on the hood.

 

You have a point. But, considering how much it cost to build the Texas plant, is Toyota really making money with $5K on the hood?

 

For the first time, we are starting to see articles about Toyota 'losing momentum', something considered impossible a year ago. maybe, just maybe, that truck plant may turn out to be Toyota's Yamato: a big target.

[g48150]

When is the redesign for the F150 scheduled for?

 

MY 2009, P415 program.

 

Job 1 SHOULD be sometime next year, probably March at the earliest, November at the latest.

 

Biggest problem right now, surprise, surprise, is the styling, with Marketing leading all the Way Forward targets now, Product Development is slapping their foreheads...

 

Come On Fields, Way Forward targets BELONG in the Customer Service division and you ING know it!!! :happy feet:

[bystander]

But your forgetting they still are on their 3-4th truck design and still has alot of faults to it.

 

Take off your blue-tinted glasses and you will realize that F150's have plenty of faults too, friend. They are overweight by 500lbs, have the weakest lineup of powertrains in the segment (wimpy engines, crummy 4 speed transmissions). They are sensitive to irritating vibration problems in certain configurations. The tall box sides make them more difficult to load than other makes.

 

With the latest generation Tundra, Toyota has pretty much caught up with the domestics. Oh sure, you might be able to quote one area or another where the Tundra is outdone, but the Tundra also has some relative advantages. They are no more "faulty" than the average pickup built by Ford, GM, or Chrysler.

 

 

 

What was the relation of sales this year vs last year...same thing happened last year when the RAV4 came out..it had nearly 50% sales then it did the prior year, yet the new Escape outsells it only 2 months into its new body style.

 

The 40% number looks impressive but they still don't even have half the amout of sales of the smallest Detroit manufacture of trucks..once they start making more trucks then Dodge does, you might be on to something

 

If Toyota is willing to deal on Tundras (which they appear to be doing), they will severely undercut the last bastion of profitability for the domestic 3. They don't have to outsell the F150 or even Dodge. Their goal might just be to make the F150 into a high volume, but break-even product for Ford. That would be disastrous for the blue oval.

Edited July 8, 2007 by bystander

[one2gamble]

Let's say Toyota decides bank roll big ($5,000) incentives

 

Theres been 5k on the hood of the new Tundra around here for a few months.

[jpd80]

pickup built by Ford, GM, or Chrysler.

If Toyota is willing to deal on Tundras (which they appear to be doing), they will severely undercut the last bastion of profitability for the domestic 3. They don't have to outsell the F150 or even Dodge. Their goal might just be to make the F150 into a high volume, but break-even product for Ford. That would be disastrous for the blue oval.

That's my biggest fear for North America

 

Theres been 5k on the hood of the new Tundra around here for a few months.

Yes, but my hypothetical was for incentives 12 months straight or longer, could Ford and GM withstand permanent incentives?

Toyota have the cash to do it with smaller sales numbers.

Edited July 9, 2007 by jpd80

[one2gamble]

The thing is, there have been almost constant incentives on full size trucks for years now. Sure yota can put 10k on the hood and just laugh but the question is do the big 2 even have to match it to keep selling trucks?

 

Im not so sure at this point.

[Furious1Auto]

I think it is absolutely dumb to discount Toyota in the Large truck segment........I think Ford and GM can hold it out, but they need to not be blind to the fact that Toyota has a real shot at harming the only segment detroit still holds. And this talk about Ford and GM spending big bucks to make their truck the best, Ford and GM don't have big bucks to spend................but money =/= best truck, smart design and desicions will lead to that.

Your talking sales rhetoric, Ford and GM don't have to spend anymore to build better trucks at this time because the actual product (the Tundra) is already inferior to the domestic brands. Do you guys beleave that trucks are still the most profitable vehicle that Ford builds? Maybe because of the volume but certainly not in terms of margins on individual sales. The assembly cost on their mid-sized line-up is probably a third of that of a truck plant. And the Fusion,MKZ, and Milan are continually making conquest sales. Meaning their taking back market share in this segment! Now the June sales report comes in and it reflects that the edge is the #1 vehicle in it's segment even out pacing the Lexus crossover. I can see why too, My wife parked her Edge next to a Lexus cross over and it is more ascetically pleasing. There's a huge difference in price too!

[jpd80]

The thing is, there have been almost constant incentives on full size trucks for years now. Sure yota can put 10k on the hood and just laugh but the question is do the big 2 even have to match it to keep selling trucks?

 

Im not so sure at this point.

 

I'm sure that's the reason behind revealing the strength of the F150 chassis against the inadequate Tundra.

It's cheaper to reveal your competitor's deficient product ahead of any incentives.

If the customers know the Ford or Gm trucks are superior then maybe cost doesn't enter the equation.

But on the other hand, Tundra sold much better last month so maybe incentives work for them.

[Ford-150]

enough with Toyota for a moment

 

look at Ford and GMs sales for last month:

-these are only between box beds(separate from the cab) trucks or what i like to call pickup trucks

 

GM- sold a combined 60,142 of the Silverado and Sierra

 

Ford- sold a combined 65,912 of the F-150 and Mark LT

 

that is very good for Ford considering they outsold a newly designed Silverado and Sierra with their 4 year old F-150 and Mark LT

 

ok back on to Toyota and GM, they both have faster pickups than Ford, actually everybody and their grandma has a faster pickup than Ford, yet Ford still out sells them

 

now if in the redesign, Ford takes the medal for #1 powertrain in terms of speed, then the other trucks really do not have much on the F-150

 

also another thing that people forget, the F-150 handles better than any full size pickup on the market

Edited July 9, 2007 by Ford-150

[suv_guy_19]

enough with Toyota for a moment

 

look at Ford and GMs sales for last month:

-these are only between box beds(separate from the cab) trucks or what i like to call pickup trucks

 

GM- sold a combined 60,142 of the Silverado and Sierra

 

Ford- sold a combined 65,912 of the F-150 and Mark LT

 

that is very good for Ford considering they outsold a newly designed Silverado and Sierra with their 4 year old F-150 and Mark LT

 

ok back on to Toyota and GM, they both have faster pickups than Ford, actually everybody and their grandma has a faster pickup than Ford, yet Ford still out sells them

 

now if in the redesign, Ford takes the medal for #1 powertrain in terms of speed, then the other trucks really do not have much on the F-150

 

also another thing that people forget, the F-150 handles better than any full size pickup on the market

 

 

see...the thing is many people do not think of pickups as having to be muscle cars...so Ford does fine....they aren't slow...but they aren't fast either.

[cheri/ck]

Take off your blue-tinted glasses and you will realize that F150's have plenty of faults too, friend. They are overweight by 500lbs, have the weakest lineup of powertrains in the segment (wimpy engines, crummy 4 speed transmissions). They are sensitive to irritating vibration problems in certain configurations. The tall box sides make them more difficult to load than other makes.

 

With the latest generation Tundra, Toyota has pretty much caught up with the domestics. Oh sure, you might be able to quote one area or another where the Tundra is outdone, but the Tundra also has some relative advantages. They are no more "faulty" than the average pickup built by Ford, GM, or Chrysler.

If Toyota is willing to deal on Tundras (which they appear to be doing), they will severely undercut the last bastion of profitability for the domestic 3. They don't have to outsell the F150 or even Dodge. Their goal might just be to make the F150 into a high volume, but break-even product for Ford. That would be disastrous for the blue oval.

 

 

 

 

I can't seem to help but respond on these forums. At ths risk of being told once again how many times I have said the same thing - Ford needs to fix the gap between the F-150 and the Ranger. The new cars and cross-overs are nice and mostly competitive, but Ford has a lead in trucks and needs to maintain it. Trying to beat Toyota and the imports in the latest car/cross-over arena will likely not be profitable. Ford can make money on their trucks and needs to address the weaknesses.

 

The new SuperDuty is a fine vehicle assuming you need that much truck. Most of us need something smaller. More comfortable and flexible than the Ranger, but not so big and heavy as the current F-150. Most people are looking at Toyota as an answer to some kind of reliability and manufacturer support for known problems in light-duty trucks. Ford and GM too have been very remiss in this area. There will be some hell to pay for not taking care of customers. And, that includes not offering customers vehicles that they both need and want. I am hopeful after the initial problems with the latest SuperDuty diesel and the rather fast way that Ford responded - maybe some of these issues are in their face finally and being resolved a lot faster than when such things were more or less blind and in denial.

 

Anyway, Ford could actually come up with something in a truck leadership role in my mind. How long has that really been? Maybe make a real half-ton truck again with a small V-8, good pulling power, strong horsepower, less weight and decent fuel economy. We have a 2007 F-150 regular cab, 4X4 totally stripped 5.4 with automatic, limited-slip, short-bed in the family now. It's a nice truck - a little too wide but otherwise the size is good. Guess what is the overall combined gas mileage is on that vehicle now with 7,500 miles on the odometer? It is nearly 19 mpg. This is certainly not the vehicle that most people want or order - probably does take off at least 500 pounds from the regular F-150. But, don't tell me Ford couldn't make us a nice half-ton with a strong V-8 in 4X4 trim that would beat 20 mpg! Take some of the weight off and make a really nice half ton truck again - please.

 

Otherwise, I'll keep driving the 1999 F-150 4X4, extended cab truck until it dies. Have been looking at new FX-4 regular cab F-150's and think they are nice trucks. Sure hard to have to give up that occasional use rear seat though. We have a 2003 Ranger 4X4 too and it's a good, very reliable vehicle - but it is not a replacement for the F-150. I don't intend to replace that truck with more weight and even more size.

[Furious1Auto]

see...the thing is many people do not think of pickups as having to be muscle cars...so Ford does fine....they aren't slow...but they aren't fast either.

No, the answer is simple Fords are going to be used like trucks and are geared down for torque. The difference is in the rear-end, When you choose your gear ratio you have to decide weather you want to gear for speed or pulling power! That's why they have faster trucks and we can haul more! The Lightning was the exception for Ford it was built for speed!