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US car sales set to drop further?


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I see the Euro and the pound have hit record high's against the dollar, because of mortgage concerns in the USA. Just wondering if a down turn is likely in US cars sales?

 

See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6289752.stm

 

 

The state of the housing industry is very worrisome indeed. And the Feds are not helping with their staying the course on interest rates and threats of increasing them. This summer has been very bad for realtors and sellers alike and this winter looks real bad. I live in a desirable community and house sales are at a standstill and the worst I have ever seen. Foreclosures and auctions all over the place. House Depot just issues its warnings today. The Feds are waiting too long to reduce interest rates as we are on edge of recession and their stubborness to reduce them will probably mean one. I doubt if it will be severe recession, but two quarters of negative growth defines one. Last quarter we barely grew and this quarter will probably be negative.

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Since this is right up my alley, I will comment. I would say the majority of the people have done this to themselves. Interest only mortgages, reverse mortgages, mortgages with resets. What were they thinking?? And of course, I also blame the realtors (I can say this, I have a realtors license) and mortgagor's which never warned clients exactly of what they were getting into.

 

And the same speech I tell people when giving speeches at political events..."American's are GREAT consumers, when it comes to buying a plasma TV's, Computers, or other depreciating toys, they will research it to death using the internet and Consumer Reports...When it comes to things that add value in life, appreciate like homes, their surrounding, the policies which contribute to their well-being, they rather not get involved and make poor choices".

 

Ironically I was discussing that same issue with a local Home Depot, they told me from last year, to this year they were off 20% in sales, and I'm in a very desirable area because we have the best schools in the state, and taxes are low, plus we don't have personal income taxes here in FL.

 

I'm buying and flipping foreclosure properties where people got wwaaayy over their heads. And really, 4 out of 5 times, those people didn't NEED the house which is now sinking them. They just moved into something newer, or with an extra bedroom they didn't need to compete with the Jones' and further away into the suburbs where now they are spending much more in gas to drive to work in their metropolitan areas.

 

Unfortunately it won't get any better and honestly, I dont think many people still quite get it....

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Ironically I was discussing that same issue with a local Home Depot, they told me from last year, to this year they were off 20% in sales, and I'm in a very desirable area because we have the best schools in the state, and taxes are low, plus we don't have personal income taxes here in FL.

 

I agree with your post about people not looking before the leap ANTAUS, but I just wanted to make one point about this tax thing. Trust me, they are getting the money. Tell everyone how much you guys get to pay for car tags down there. Here in AL a 30 K car tag will cost you about $350 on yearly renewal. In Florida? Also, property tax here on say an 80K house which typically is in the 1200 to 1500 sq foot range with a half acre lot might run you about $20 to $40 a month I believe. In Florida? Nothing against Florida it's a great place but trust me, the government gets the money from you one way or another. Here we pay sales taxes on everything to include groceries.

Edited by BlackHorse
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I agree with your post about people not looking before the leap ANTAUS, but I just wanted to make one point about this tax thing. Trust me, they are getting the money. Tell everyone how much you guys get to pay for car tags down there. Here in AL a 30 K car tag will cost you about $350 on yearly renewal. In Florida? Also, property tax here on say an 80K house which typically is in the 1200 to 1500 sq foot range with a half acre lot might run you about $20 to $40 a month I believe. In Florida? Nothing against Florida it's a great place but trust me, the government gets the money from you one way or another. Here we pay sales taxes on everything to include groceries.

 

The tax burdens do all fall into a pretty close range, and yes whatever doesn't come from once place, comes from somewhere else. Just to add in some data:

 

Florida's state and local tax revenue, as a percentage of personal income: 10.6%

Arkansas: 11.4%

 

Some other states for comparison:

California: 11.6%

Massachusetts: 10.7%

New Hampshire: 9.1% (lowest)

New York: 15%

Wyoming: 15.1% (highest)

 

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/TaxFacts/TF...e.cfm?Docid=531

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It's already hit. Speaking from previous experience where I saw deals that dealers made with customers who really in no way shape or form should have been buying brand new cars, especially pricey ones. Of course a budget smart Focus that would actually work on their budget was "beneath them." Why was 0% last August such a huge deal? Because ANYONE and EVERYONE got it. I had a dealer show me a $16K buydown rate that Ford Credit paid on a customer "buying" a Super Duty.

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IN FL we have something called "Homestead Excetion", initiated and approved by voters in the 90's. What that meant is, if you Homestead the house you live in, your taxes can only increase 3% on a yearly basis. Case in point, taxes on my $525K house are just $1700 this past year, because I've "Homesteaded" it for years, before pricers tripled as they have...Ironically my neighbor who paid $500K for his house last year, will pay roughly about $4800-5300.

 

Many residents have been screwed over in this case, because they "recapitalized". Lets say they went from a home they lived in for years, paying $2500 on a house that sells for $400K. They took that money bought another house for the same amount (they just wanted something newer), now they "recapitalized", lost their "Homestead Exception", pretty much start from scratch at $4000 roughly. So now they are confused as to WHY, suddenly their taxes have doubled on a monthly basis. Again, realtors and mortgagors never mentioned this to clients because of course, they would lose their commission. I rate realtors currently to have the same integrity as lawyers have...And like the joke goes, "What do you call 1000 lawyers at the bottom of the sea?"- A Start.

 

Currently the state senate came up with a proposal to control and lower property taxes. And already in a political level I can tell you that voters won't pass it. It needs bout 60% vote to pass, leaves a $7BIL shortfall for educations, which when asked WHERE they were planning to replace that money with, they responded with "OH we'll find it from somewhere". Case in point, the teachers union and small business will be innundating the networks with political advertising as to tell people WHY not to vote on it. And really, what it does is exempt the first $200K value of your house. Meaning, if you live in a trailer, or Apt worth less than $200K, you won't pay any taxes. YET, your using the same streets/schools/sidewalks/infrastructure as everyone else. It's certainly not an equal system. And it doesn't exempt rental properties, or businesses, which means those and people with homes over $400K will carry the burden. Really, only a small percentage of people (probably the ones that bought in the last 2 years) will benefit from the new proposal. Already local newspapers in the major cities are calling the proposed plan a failure.

 

Why is this an issue? Because when it doesn't pass, it'll be another year before our politicians go back and come up with a better plan. And during that time, it will be thousands more who will sink from high property taxes, and insurance (if you can GET any).

 

While interest rates where low and everyone was going crazy buying properties, the values increased rapidly, and so did the taxes that went with it. People did this to themselves, now it's time to pay the piper. SO let's take note, when we heard "OH Yeah we have record home-ownership rates in the country at an all time high", we also have "Record foreclosure rates, at an all time high".

 

And till this property tax issue is somewhat resolved for FL, the properties are hardly selling and are stagnant. Mind you, the prices won't drop because the one who bought it for $350K last year, NEEDS to get $350K to break even this year and they refuse to lower their prices....only those who have been vested for years, can move their home. We also have record levels of British buying properties here in Central FL? Why? The weak dollar allows them to buy a $400K house, for almost half which is a bargain to them. And Daytona Beach is attracting numerous Chinese investors. We are attracting many international clients because of our debt and weak currency....

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IN FL we have something called "Homestead Excetion", initiated and approved by voters in the 90's. What that meant is, if you Homestead the house you live in, your taxes can only increase 3% on a yearly basis.

 

In California, the assessed value of your home will never increase unless you ask for the property to be reassessed (which you won't do unless the value has dropped). People who have lived in their homes for 30 years (the law was passed in 1978) have never seen their property taxes increase, except by rare and difficult rate changes (as a result of which the state property tax rate here is the 2nd lowest in the country). So not only are they low to begin with, it's almost impossible to change. Low property taxes, higher income and sales taxes.

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Same house in NJ, would cost about 10K+ or so..hell I'm paying $2200 on a friggen 876 sq ft condo!

 

God I love our state.

 

I can't say I'm entirely outraged at the housing boom... my parents picked up two 3-family houses on the cheap in the early 1980's as rental properties, and their current house in the early 1990's before things went out of control. The value of the properties has gone up over 400%, and even though the rental properties constitute "affordable housing" (ie, rent below 1200/month for each apartment), the rental income is simply astounding.

 

The huge spike in prices in the 1990's can be attributed partly to extremely low interest rates (ie, the less you're spending on a mortgage, the more you can spend on principle), and partly due to the rise of the two-income household. Let's say the husband is an i-bank associate in Manhattan, pulling in 400k or so. In the day, that would be a healthy income to support a wife, a few kids, a few cars, and private school education for those kids. However, these days, it's increasingly likely the wife is a doctor or CPA, ALSO pulling in 400k or so. So we've got droves of these young professionals looking for their first house in my area, and when you've got THAT much cash to throw around, prices will inevitably rise.

 

Prices will come down, if simply for the reason that they're unsustainably high right now. Middle class families are getting squeezed, and thus, these ridiculous mortgages are actually NECCESARY for people to afford even a basic house in my area.

 

However, as long as women are working, prices aren't going to come down THAT much. Also, certain areas have insulation built in. For example, my town's public schools are among the best in the state, and among the best in the country, and thus, demand for housing will remain high regardless of any housing meltdown.

 

What we will see is a migration of people and jobs away from these impossibly high-buck areas, and into more affordable ones.

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Also, the issue with certain areas depreciciating isn't an issue with banks, but more so with local governments. Or one example is a new development which last year was selling into the $400K range. If things are slow, dont' expect them to drop prices, rather, they will give incentives. I know of some communities that will even give you a Mini-Cooper if a purchase a house for them. Again, what people forget is that the Mini will push you into a higher tax bracket, one in which you'll have to pay taxes on. So again, you have a bunch of idiots opting for that, then get stuck with the tax bill. INstead, taking incentives such as "$20K off, and closing costs paid" is the smarter alternative.

 

Problem is, if the builder drops the initial price, it affects their loan requirements from their in shop financier because suddenly all the homes selling last year for $50-100K more, are considered "upside down", of course provided we are talking about people who came into the homes with very little money down. And in turn, will make it much difficult for that builder/developer to have an in-house financier to cover them.

 

 

I personally don't have an issue with the taxing rate of my specific community and county. The services ARE obvious. We have the best schools in the state, low crime rate, low insurance rates on vehicles, beautification of infrastructure. So I have no issue, hell, tax me more and give me ornamental lightposts, bus stops and more services for all I care.

 

What sucks is that about 60% of Floridians property taxes go directly to the school board. And FL has a high school graduation rate of only 60%, and known for some of the worst schools in the nation. SO I would say there's a boat-load of people that SHOULD be upset because their tax money is not working for them.

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What sucks is that about 60% of Floridians property taxes go directly to the school board. And FL has a high school graduation rate of only 60%, and known for some of the worst schools in the nation. SO I would say there's a boat-load of people that SHOULD be upset because their tax money is not working for them.

 

That is a problem with the parents. All of the money in the world can't transform the unmotivated children of parents who basically view school as a taxpayer-funded babysitting service into Rhodes Scholars.

 

As for the housing markets affect on new vehicle sales - it has only just begun. I look for this to get much worse in the coming months, and I truly believe that within the next two years, one of the Detroit 3 will end up in bankruptcy court. The big question is - which one?

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Jokingly I tell people we should just close down schools...whenever there's no school because of vacation, you notice the traffic levels are substantially low in the morning. Particularly in Miami. So case in point, just close them to people who don't wanna go :)

 

Actually we have a school initiative called "No Child Left Behind". And since it's initiation, the drop out rate has been much higher at the high school level leaving record low graduation rates. So many people are questioning it's effectivenes since it's not working. But it sounds pretty on paper though...

 

Unfortunately for carmakers, Ford and GM will suffer the most since there truck sales will drop a bit in reflection of the housing crisis, coupled with high gas prices, it's not looking good. Ford will do better once they focus on passenger cars, and crossovers as they have. Just recently they released of how much of their business is now crossovers, instead of trucks, so they are hinting at us that they are changing. They would be smart to create a cross-over that's specifically Hybrid only.

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Jokingly I tell people we should just close down schools...whenever there's no school because of vacation, you notice the traffic levels are substantially low in the morning. Particularly in Miami. So case in point, just close them to people who don't wanna go :)

 

Actually we have a school initiative called "No Child Left Behind". And since it's initiation, the drop out rate has been much higher at the high school level leaving record low graduation rates. So many people are questioning it's effectivenes since it's not working. But it sounds pretty on paper though...

 

Unfortunately for carmakers, Ford and GM will suffer the most since there truck sales will drop a bit in reflection of the housing crisis, coupled with high gas prices, it's not looking good. Ford will do better once they focus on passenger cars, and crossovers as they have. Just recently they released of how much of their business is now crossovers, instead of trucks, so they are hinting at us that they are changing. They would be smart to create a cross-over that's specifically Hybrid only.

 

If I recall correctly, under the No Child Left Behind Act, schools are barred from just automatically promoting students to (eventually) get rid of them, so perhaps the students are quitting on their own. They probably weren't learning anything anyway. Public schools do work...for the students who want to learn.

 

As for GM, Ford and Chrysler - it's hard to say which one will go first, although perhaps Cerberus will just give up on Chrysler if the going gets too tough.

 

GM's much-touted product renewal isn't really producing stellar results. The Aura is a dud, Cadillac's sales this year are on track to reach 2001 levels (which is just before the Art & Science theme was introduced), Pontiac appears to be comatose, the much-touted Impala is really a fleet queen and even the sales of the new pickups aren't meeting expectations.

 

Ford has its share of problems, too - declining sales of the F-150 and Explorer, a listless Lincoln and too much dependence on fleet sales for the Five Hundred and Fusion (which should only be at the 10-15 percent level for both).

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If I recall correctly, under the No Child Left Behind Act, schools are barred from just automatically promoting students to (eventually) get rid of them, so perhaps the students are quitting on their own. They probably weren't learning anything anyway. Public schools do work...for the students who want to learn.

 

That's God's own truth right there. There is a very large contingent of students in American public schools who only go because they're required, not because they have any desire to learn. Sad, but true. We need to get these kids out of public high schools, and into vocational schools, the sooner the better. Why prep them for college when its likely they won't even go, or immediately fail out? Better to give them a practial education so they'll be able to get SOME kind of job, especially in the inner cities. When we keep these kids in public schools, not only are their own failures demoralizing, but they bring down other more motivated kids with them. If a kid has a great mechanical aptitude, but he's getting beaten down with F's in English and Math, his whole self-image suffers, and his life is ruined, and he'll probably never go on to be a great mechanic.

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That's God's own truth right there. There is a very large contingent of students in American public schools who only go because they're required, not because they have any desire to learn. Sad, but true. We need to get these kids out of public high schools, and into vocational schools, the sooner the better. Why prep them for college when its likely they won't even go, or immediately fail out? Better to give them a practial education so they'll be able to get SOME kind of job, especially in the inner cities. When we keep these kids in public schools, not only are their own failures demoralizing, but they bring down other more motivated kids with them. If a kid has a great mechanical aptitude, but he's getting beaten down with F's in English and Math, his whole self-image suffers, and his life is ruined, and he'll probably never go on to be a great mechanic.

 

Very good points...I get tired of the "everyone must go to college to amount to anything" mantra.

 

Although I will say that I have talked to some vocational education teachers who encounter the same apathetic, unmotivated students in their schools. Some students just aren't interested in much of anything, period. Of course, once they are stuck in some low-paying, deadend job, they are the first to whine, or blame someone else for their predicament.

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Very good points...I get tired of the "everyone must go to college to amount to anything" mantra.

 

But the bad thing is that we are becoming a society that one day you'll need an associates degree to work in Walmart...

 

Then if you work in the IT Industry, you can have all the experience in the world and still make 20K less a year then some who does have a college education.

 

If anything a college degree is way over-rated for what it is...

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That is a problem with the parents. All of the money in the world can't transform the unmotivated children of parents who basically view school as a taxpayer-funded babysitting service into Rhodes Scholars.

 

I don't want to launch this thing off into a whole different direction here but with respect to schools I have to say something. Look, most parents just want their kid to be able to go to a school that is not overwhelmed with thug ass gangster kids that just show up there because it gives them something to do during the day. There seems to be this notion of late in our country that if you want any sort of decent education at all you have to pay for it and pay a lot. Now think about how self destructive that is for us as a nation. Only a very small percentage of families can afford the cost of private schooling. Also, why? Knowledge is the key to a healthy society, a well rounded individual, a strong country and a more civilized world. Why would you have the mindset that it should be denied to all but the few select who can afford it's high cost? It is a notion so narrowminded and so dangerous that I can think of no other single issue that will ensure the demise of America faster then ths idea that you have to pay big dollars to get a good education. Did you ever wonder how many scholars we would have walking around if the cost to attend just about any University wasn't sky high? I know that's a bit different from K -12 but just thought I'd throw that in. The ability and availability of passing on knowledge to those who seek it should not be something that we reserve only for the wealthy. It should be available to all who seek it and it should be available to every child. As is usual in our society, rather than punish the criminals, we punish the victims. If you have kids in your school that are disruptive, don't do their work, pick on and beat up the other kids, you throw their asses out, plain and simple. I don't care if their mommy comes down there and says "My baby ain't like that, you can't do this." Yes we can, we have it all documented, his ass is outta here. He can start over from scratch next year and if he acts up then, I'll throw him out again. Make the trouble makers pay for the cost to learn.

 

Anyway, that's my little rant about education. Sorry.

Edited by BlackHorse
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Well, another reason, is many car/truck buyers simply are way upside down from all the 'trading in' and adding negative equtiy to their new car that they 'just HAD to have!'

 

Also, banks are now unwiling to finance a car loan combined with neg. equity from a 'white elephant' trade in.

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My house on 5 acres in a metro ATL suburb has a street value of ~$315K but an 'assessed' valued of $269K. With Homestead Exemption my taxes are $2900 but without Homestead they would be $3900.

 

The tag on my last 06 Mustang GT was $375 this April for a nearly 1 year old car!

 

I travel to Florida all the time and typically stay on the water when I work a town. Each time I pick up a coastal real estsate book and every other ad is 'reduced' 'bring offer' 'motivated seller'. If I were in the position for a 2nd home I would think if one spent a week looking and making low ball offers a great deal could be found but I'm not in that position so I'll never know.

 

Car, boat and motorcycle sales along with housing are down for 2007 and I see the same in 08. A lot of people like myself are still making good money with solid returns in the stock market via retirement funds and the like but the mental hang up many have is they think their house has lost value so the aren't spending money. My dad and I own a business together and we are making more money than we have ever made this year but we are re-investing every penny in the business so needless to say we aren't afraid. Don't forget in 2006 American's took 1 TRILLION dollars of equity out of their homes and many pissed it away on things that make this economy churn. Now the mortgage lenders have tightened up lending standards and rightfully so IMO.

Edited by Automotive Paint
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Well, for all of you moaning about where you live, try south Louisiana...

 

Homestead exemption protects the first $75K of your primary residence from taxation. The housing value boom of this decade has made this exemption largely irrelevant as it basically increased the market value of everyone's house down here about $75K. The house I purchased for $80K in 2000 no appraises for $150K (well, immediately before Katrina). So, I'm paying all of those property taxes that I was supposedly exempt from. Reassesments are done by the parish assessors at least once every three years. The only way to freeze things is if the primary owner of a house is 65 years of age or older, the tax rate and assessment is frozen at that point. It will never go higher on that property until the owner sells it, or, the estate is passed through sucsession (at which time, it is reassessed, and, if the new owner qualifies, it is refrozen at the new assessment).

 

Sales taxes from a combined city, parish, and state level amount to around 9-10%, depending on where you shop. As the post Katrina sales tax collection surge subsides, the governments that grew fat and happy on those large collections are going to want their coffers to stay full and will find every way of getting new sales taxes onto the ballots every election and get their rich buddies to buy adds all over the place advertising that the world will end without them and get them passed.

 

We also have a state income tax, its progressive, and for me, amounts to about 8% of my income.

 

We do have low vehicle anual property taxes/ inspection sticker and registration levels. Inspection is $10-$15 per year. Registration is around $40 every two years. Property taxes on vehicles are by city.

 

We also have a mountain of fees on all of our utility bills. Your water bill has fees for parks, garbage collection, drainage (you know, the pumps that they didn't turn on for Katrina and flooded us out here in Jefferson Parish, that drainage), special district fees, etc. The electric bill has some sort of access fee on it, and a street lighting surcharge. The gas bill has an access fee. The cable, internet, and phone bill have their own mountain of fees as well, plus, the services are taxed themselves.

 

And, for all of that, we have...

 

The worst schools in the nation (we trade this title back and forth with Mississippi)

The worst roads in the nation

The worst public health system in the nation

The dirtiest streets in the country

The poorest city planning in the country.

The most crooked politicians that money can buy.

 

Efforts to pass ethics reform legislation were defeated by better than 3 to 1 margins in both houses.

 

Oh, and we now have the highest property insurance rates in the country. Higher than Florida even (thanks to Florida figuring out how to do a catastrophe fund and enforce building codes among other things). Here, we just hand several tens of millions of dollars to the industry in "incentives" to "offer" "affordable" insurance in some of the hardest hit areas. We have a state attourney general that is barred, by law, from bringing suit against the insurance companies on our behalf. The only rate protection that we did have, from our insurance comission, was removed this session by the comission being disbanded and disolved.

 

So, the same house I was paying $650 a year on for Property casualty and liability insurance including fire, windstorm, hail, hurricane, etc. I now pay $2400 a year. That's for twice the deductibles and 20% less coverage than before and a special 5% hurricane deductible over and above the base deductibles. So, no matter what happens, if a storm comes by and flattens my house, while a tropical system is in the gulf of mexico (doesn't have to be a related weather system), I will have to come out of pocket at least $15,000 before the insurance company will pay me one cent of my policy.

 

Yeah me! I'd move if I could, but, my two mortgages are equal to 75% of my houses value, and thanks to our city and state royally screwing up recovery efforts, houses in my area aren't moving for 1/2 their face value. My credit rating is still trashed from being jobles several years ago and from struggling to recover from Katrina. So, I couldn't get reasonable financing if I wanted to.

Edited by old_fairmont_wagon
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I don't want to launch this thing off into a whole different direction here but with respect to schools I have to say something. Look, most parents just want their kid to be able to go to a school that is not overwhelmed with thug ass gangster kids that just show up there because it gives them something to do during the day. There seems to be this notion of late in our country that if you want any sort of decent education at all you have to pay for it and pay a lot. Now think about how self destructive that is for us as a nation. Only a very small percentage of families can afford the cost of private schooling. Also, why? Knowledge is the key to a healthy society, a well rounded individual, a strong country and a more civilized world. Why would you have the mindset that it should be denied to all but the few select who can afford it's high cost? It is a notion so narrowminded and so dangerous that I can think of no other single issue that will ensure the demise of America faster then ths idea that you have to pay big dollars to get a good education. Did you ever wonder how many scholars we would have walking around if the cost to attend just about any University wasn't sky high? I know that's a bit different from K -12 but just thought I'd throw that in. The ability and availability of passing on knowledge to those who seek it should not be something that we reserve only for the wealthy. It should be available to all who seek it and it should be available to every child. As is usual in our society, rather than punish the criminals, we punish the victims. If you have kids in your school that are disruptive, don't do their work, pick on and beat up the other kids, you throw their asses out, plain and simple. I don't care if their mommy comes down there and says "My baby ain't like that, you can't do this." Yes we can, we have it all documented, his ass is outta here. He can start over from scratch next year and if he acts up then, I'll throw him out again. Make the trouble makers pay for the cost to learn.

 

Anyway, that's my little rant about education. Sorry.

 

I'm not denying anyone anything. It's the parents who are too lazy to monitor their children and make sure that they are paying attention in school who are the problem.

 

Those parents may be in the minority, but it only takes a relatively small number of constantly disruptive students to make a school miserable for everyone.

Edited by grbeck
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It's interesting to hear a US perspective on this as a European. We are constantly told to re-model our economy on the USA's. But as much as I try to understand this I struggle. In the UK we have had what feels like 10 years of a strong performing economy. We have a smallish trade deficit of about 6 billion dollars. We do tax more but if a Katrina hit the UK we would spend those taxes getting people back on their feet. We pay for a national healthcare system which isn't as good at quality as private healthcare but it covers everyone, is free on the point of delivery and works out cheaper as our NHS has massive buying power. Basically it's pretty good value.

 

On the higher tax mainland of Europe there is a large trade surplus and a rapidly growing economy (thanks in part to cheap labour from Eastern Europe). The Euro is rapidly strengthening and in some places is replacing the dollar. Economic growth is, broadly speaking strong across the EU. Car sales should get stronger too so that's good news for EU car makers. I'm not arguing against the US economic model as such, but I'm not sure I understand why the US is the economic example for the world as things currently stand. I keep thinking what am I missing when people say we should follow the US example?

 

One area we do differ in is education. We have a well funded state sector across the EU. Until recently Universities were practically free of charge in the UK. Maybe that plays into blackhorse's arguement?

Edited by TStag
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