If you were a stock holder?

[wolfpack219]

Ok here is my question for all of you. If you were a stock holder in Ford Motor Co. would you hold or sell at this current time? With GM pretty much going bankrupt it can't mean positive things for this industry as a whole. I however have already lost half my value on Ford stock (F) and am thinking about cutting my losses. Even with the amazing line of products Ford is coming out with right now things look so dismal for the future it is hard to be optimistic that my stock won't be worth 50 cents by the end of the year or nothing at all. I know Ford has more cash than the other two but is that simply delaying the inevitable? No matter how good your products are now if people aren't buying them it really doesn't matter if your selling Lambo's for 30k.

[Pioneer]

Sell. The share price will go down even further when Ford starts issuing more shares to the VEBA and bondholders.

[wolfpack219]

When is that going to be happening?

[blazerdude20]

well i actually plan to buy some shares in the next few weeks. nothing big so if it loses all the value its not a huge hit for me.

[Sixt9coug]

im already down a ton with my F shares. gonna hold as i didnt invest anything i couldnt afford to lose anyway

[Ron W.]

Sell. The share price will go down even further when Ford starts issuing more shares to the VEBA and bondholders.

 

 

And your opinion for the long term?

[Noah Harbinger]

Sell. The share price will go down even further when Ford starts issuing more shares to the VEBA and bondholders.

 

Buy more to improve your cost basis. It's a loser's game to find the exact moment of a bottom, when you are confident the price will eventually increase.

[Noah Harbinger]

When is that going to be happening?

 

June 23rd, 2009.

 

Seriously! This is the dumbest question ever! If anyone could predict the economy or stock market, they would be a gadzillionaire in about a week.

 

The stock price reflects the current market belief that Ford will probably go bankrupt. If most people thought it would succeed, the price would reflect that. And if there were ANY certainty about the future performance of a company, the very concept of a stock market would be ludicrous.

 

So the truth of the matter is: You want someone to tell you what you want to hear, to justify your future actions, so that in case those actions have negative results, you can say: Damn that BONer and their lying ways! ... thus absolving yourself of the guilt of your failure.

 

So get over it, do what you think is right.... and use your experience to guide your next set of mistakes... er... decisions.

[Ralph Greene]

I own some shares, bought recently. But imagine I will not keep them long. The next time we get a couple up days in market, I will probably sell them. But I am already retired, looking to make a few bucks here and there.

 

Your situation is different from mine. I believe your decision will have to be based on this....Ford seems to be the surviving car maker, with excellent products for the future. The stock is currently priced for either bankruptcy or Gov't involvement. There is a lot of share dillution coming from bond conversion, VERBA, etc. So even if company does much better 5 years from now, and even if stock market drastically improves, how much can the stock go up even in good times? I don't know answer to this question, no one knows, so that is question you have to decide. You can do some research and find out how much dillution is coming. IE....if number of shares outstanding doubles, then how high stock can go in good times based on earnings, is cut in half, etc.

 

So investing is Ford is not really investing, it's gambling. But if I were an employee, already betting my job and retirement future on Ford, as any current worker is doing, I believe I would accumulate a few more shares. Or....go find me a more secure job with Toyota or Honda....when/if car business returns. If you believe enough in Ford to work there, get some more stock cheap....even if it is gambling. And BTW....hope it does go to .50 per share, you can get a lot at that price.

Edited March 6, 2009 by Ralph Greene

[mettech]

I'm going down with the ship with GM and F and hope the Fed give me a life line. :reading:

 

At least GM and F are doing better than my ACAS and C stock...

 

I am not a "day trader". I'm in the market for the long...... long......(after my death).. run.

The stocks will be part of our estate we will leave our 6 children.

[dwford]

I am holding, and may buy some more to improve my cost basis. I bought in last year around $7 and continued to buy on the way down. I am in it for the long haul. I see where Ford is headed and full expect to recoup my investment in the next 18 months. The economy will improve just as all of Ford's next generation products come on line.

[RaZor]

Just keep in mind that there still is a lot of this kind of BS going on - so, as has been stated above, a stocks price today (or tomorrow) is not really indicative of future value.

[battyr]

Ok here is my question for all of you. If you were a stock holder in Ford Motor Co. would you hold or sell at this current time? With GM pretty much going bankrupt it can't mean positive things for this industry as a whole. I however have already lost half my value on Ford stock (F) and am thinking about cutting my losses. Even with the amazing line of products Ford is coming out with right now things look so dismal for the future it is hard to be optimistic that my stock won't be worth 50 cents by the end of the year or nothing at all. I know Ford has more cash than the other two but is that simply delaying the inevitable? No matter how good your products are now if people aren't buying them it really doesn't matter if your selling Lambo's for 30k.

 

I think Ford is a hell of a deal at todays price. GM will either be forced into bankruptcy or will be downsized to be atleast half it's sales if not smaller. That means that everyone else will get that market share when the economy picks-up. The stock market always leads the economy. If the economy picks-up in 6 months, then stock prices will start to recover now. Ford advantage is that it has liquidity.

 

In the worst case Ford has the cash to buy suppliers at huge discounts that could go bankrupt after GM goes under. If Ford can do this to guarrentee parts supply, then they can pick up GM's market share.

 

Best case, GM survives and becomes half of it's former sized with little invested into new products. Ford has continued to invest into product development and improved quality. They have the cash to continue to make improvements. They keep their cost down and improve market share in a growing market.

 

Ford stock has nose dived from $16.40 to a low of $1.40. That was 3 1/2 months ago. Now the share price is stable. The next move could be a (1) second leg down to maybe $0.14 a share. I am betting this is not the case, but you really don't know. (2) Trade in a range from $1.40 to $4.50. (3) After a recover and return to profit, if it goes over $4.50 then the long term price is, the sky is the limit. Could be a $100.00 stock in 10 years.

 

The current price is around $1.85.

 

A short-term strategy would be to buy now and sell around $2.30. See how many times you can do this until the trend changes. Do this just once and you can make huge money. You might be able to repeat this up to 5 times. Danger! You must protech from a price crash. Set a Stop Loss order at mayby $1.65. If the price drops below this, then you don't know how low it could go. Sell and take your loss.

 

Long-term. Do your home work. Do you really think Ford will be a profit leader in the industry in a few years? If so, do your home work every week. As long as you think there has been no real change effecting Fords long-term, then it is a good investment. The share can jump up as fast as they dropped. Buy now. Don't worry what happens to the price as long as you think that it would do well in a few years. The price could drop in half, but eventualy could be huge.

 

Good luck.

[battyr]

Sell. The share price will go down even further when Ford starts issuing more shares to the VEBA and bondholders.

 

This is already reflected in the share price.

 

Normally diluting share value would be bad for share price. In this case, Fords improved liquidity is more important for share price than the number of shares outstanding. You might have to share your profits with VEBA and bondholder, but you know that Ford won't be going bankrupt from a lack of cash.

[SkapeGote]

Sup,

 

Investing in Ford right now should only be a choice for you if you have money to burn or lose. After reading this thread, I bought 7500 shares. First, I have the money to burn. If Ford tanks, well shit. But say in 5 years it trades for $15.00 a share.... *inserts O'Jays cd and plays "For the Love of Money"*.

 

There is too types of investing you can do in reality. High risk and low risk. If you have it to burn, go for it, but to not bet your house or livelihood on the stock market. There is plenty of nice safe long term, low-medium yield investments you can make through your bank that would almost guarantee you a return. I just do not want to see you get screwed man. In economical environments like this, we all need to look out for each other.

 

Skape

[theoldwizard]

I own some shares but am not planning on holding them for the long term. My sell target is probably around $4, giving me a nice profit.

 

Not certain I will see that this year.

[Pioneer]

I own some shares but am not planning on holding them for the long term. My sell target is probably around $4, giving me a nice profit.

 

Not certain I will see that this year.

 

 

You're not going to see that this decade, if it goes back up that high at all.

[SkapeGote]

Sup,

 

Wow Pioneer, you are just a ball of positivity. LOL.

 

Skape

[jpd80]

You're not going to see that this decade, if it goes back up that high at all.

From what Ralph was saying before, the stock will now be that diluted that any

anticipated up tick to $4 in a couple of years may only be something like $2.50 or so.

 

If that's the case, anyone buying Ford shares should be in for the long haul otherwise

hop on to some other quicker recovering stock for a while until a Ford upswing comes.

Edited March 6, 2009 by jpd80

[Pioneer]

Sup,

 

Wow Pioneer, you are just a ball of positivity. LOL.

 

Skape

 

I would say something positive if there was any indication that things will get better.

 

Unfortunately, things will get worse. Suppliers will start going bankrupt whether GM and/or Chrysler do. There is too much supply on American soil, and if Chrysler's plan gets the go ahead, there will be more when Fiat enters the American market, not to mention the Chinese and Indian car makers that plan on entering the market within the next few years.

 

And, the stock price we have today, is the same price it had basically been for the last coupe of months, so the VEBA and bondholder stock has NOT been factored into the current price. Many analysts have issued a $1 stock target, and I think it will get there.

 

If you feel you need to buy an auto stock, I wouldn't buy any at this time. Wait and see what happens with GM and Chrysler. If it looks like the government is going to prop them up no matter what, buy ahead. If it looks like they will go into bankruptcy, I wouldn't touch Ford or GM with a 10 foot pole because stockholders are at the bottom of the food chain in court.

[jpd80]

The other side of the coin is with debt restructuring, the likelihood of bankruptcy diminishes.

So if a fair whack of debt is wiped by diluting the stock, it turns Ford stock into a slower but

more stable investment. If something spectacular happened with suppliers and Gm crashed,

I think Ford now has contingencies in place, that's why they've being distancing themselves lately.

[Pioneer]

I think Ford now has contingencies in place, that's why they've being distancing themselves lately.

 

Of course they do, but they only cover so many scenarios.

 

Bottom line, if cars don't start selling by the end of '09 or beginning of '10, Ford will be out of money and right where GM stock is right now. At historic lows because everybody is jumping ship and cutting their losses.

[battyr]

I would say something positive if there was any indication that things will get better.

 

Unfortunately, things will get worse. Suppliers will start going bankrupt whether GM and/or Chrysler do. There is too much supply on American soil, and if Chrysler's plan gets the go ahead, there will be more when Fiat enters the American market, not to mention the Chinese and Indian car makers that plan on entering the market within the next few years.

 

And, the stock price we have today, is the same price it had basically been for the last coupe of months, so the VEBA and bondholder stock has NOT been factored into the current price. Many analysts have issued a $1 stock target, and I think it will get there.

 

If you feel you need to buy an auto stock, I wouldn't buy any at this time. Wait and see what happens with GM and Chrysler. If it looks like the government is going to prop them up no matter what, buy ahead. If it looks like they will go into bankruptcy, I wouldn't touch Ford or GM with a 10 foot pole because stockholders are at the bottom of the food chain in court.

 

Ford has $24 billion in liquid assets. Toyota has $113 billion. If suppliers start going bankrupt Toyota will buy all of them that make parts for them. That will cover the major companies. Any small supplier that goes bankrupt, Ford has cash to buy. Remember a bankrupt company sell for pennies on the dollar. There will be government money too. As well as money from the stronger, major parts makers and other auto companies.

 

All the major auto companies source parts around the world at the lowest price. The only cost avantage the Indians and the Chinese have is with final assembly of which they have poor quality and US import duties. Their other advantage is having engineers that cost them less then $4 per hour. The engineers are very smart but don't know how to build a car that meets US requirements. It will take them years to learn.

 

The nature of the stock market means that the shares could drop to $0.50 or rise to $4.00 for no reason at all.

[LarryQW]

I started looking at Ford company before buying my Taurus X last year. The more I looked at Ford, the more I was extremely impressed at how the company was run and how much it has changed, with so little public recognition of the facts.

 

Bill Ford wanted true change and pulled in Mullaly to help, who completely transformed the company. Ford cut their costs, people, and factories way back a few years ago, well ahead of the fall in demand, with a goal toward getting themselves profitable which they did briefly. They wisely stuffed bundles of money in their bank to survive major storms like we see today. Ford is now moving to the top in most all categories, including safety, reliability, AND gas mileage all at the same time! We're now just waiting the several year lag time now befor the public realizes and accepts Ford's major change that's already proven by independent measures (IIHS, fueleconomy.gov, Consumer Reports user surveys,...).

 

On top of that, Ford has gone global with pulling in superb winning European small car designs with excellent fuel efficiency. They've cut design costs as a result too. In general Ford looks like a company that's very well run and poised for great growth. They're gaining market share as proof of payoff for their effort.

 

The national economy is wrecking all companies in its path, and it may be a couple years to take its course. Car purchasing is at an extreme all time low. But cars don't last forever and getting older every year, so putting off purchases now will only increase demand later as people's cars decay under them. And Ford's attractive new features (fuel economy, style, electronics, ...) will pull in people once they start purchasing again.

 

On the negative side, the biggest risk is that Ford could go bankrupt or be put into some situation that wipes out stock holders like me. So far, Ford looks like they'll scrape by one way or another. A major push for the Ford management to keep stockholders solvent is the Ford family themselves, who live or die by Ford's stock value. A small dilution is fine by me as long as it keeps the stock from being wiped out, so long as stockholders like me can get to Ford's bright future.

 

I'm sure Ford stock will go up and down with various excitement over the next several months, especially with some money managers trying stock manipulation for their very short term gains. But in the longer term Ford looks to a very big winner if they get through this, which is a tough call but looks good for now, especially with the management in place that has shown themselves to be proactive.

 

As a result of Ford's turn around, I bought a lot of Ford stock as it was falling, some at $4 and more at $2. I badly wanted to buy even more Ford stock when it went to $1, but Ford was already above 25% of my portfolio and so I held myself back. (Well, OK, with Ford's drop it's now only 15% of my portfolio, but I luckily pulled everything into cash at the market peak last year. :D )

 

Although many will gamble on short term games with Ford's extreme rapid volatility right now, I view Ford as a long term investment (3-4 year). The gains will occur when the economy is recovered, people must buy a new car as their old ones die out, all of Ford's new style line up is in place, the gas price is back up and Ford's major improvements on fuel economy bear fruit - especially as EcoBoost is deployed more throughout their line, Ford's dramatic quality and reliability improvements finally penetrate public perception, and their market share gains over the other car makers actually means something, including excellent profits. IMO, the only long term risk is a total wipe out of stock holders. But I view Ford as one of the least likely for that too.

Edited March 8, 2009 by LarryQW

[jpd80]

Hypothetically, If Ford keeps releasing new issues of shares replacing bonds, they could wipe out huge chunks of debt without ever repaying. I wonder if an upswing occurred later this year, would they be tempted to do that and reduce debt further?