The nagging euphoria over Ford

[TomServo92]

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[RaZor]

I don't know, but, somehow I just can't see how the mgmt at GM and, especially Chrysler, can pull it off so that they would be able to put together such a scenario that they would be in position that ". . . the other guys come roaring out of Chapter 11 behind the wheels of finely tuned financial machines"

 

Those last four words just does not fit. That and I keep thinking about the time lost whilst this C11 is going on and how that would delay products that would really be valued in the market place.

 

That's not to say that if either can pull this off, that they wouldn't be a real competitor several years down the line. Even then Ford should have a big head start and should be a profitable company - which is all that is necessary. I don't think that they should even think about ever being #1. If it happens, so be it - but don't make it a goal or even think about it. Regulated growth and build huge reserves for any future downturns. . . don't squander any (like Yoda). Remember GM & Chrysler still would have to overcome the stigma.

[jpd80]

So the thinking is that in spite of Ford's three year hard slog, all that might be undone by

the government assisting GM and Chrysler through Chapter 11 reorganization?

 

I think this journalist doesn't fully understand how chapter 11 really works for corporates with

complex business structures, the idea of a quick rinse/spin prepackaged bankruptcy is ludicrous.

Thinking GM will emerge from bankruptcy in early 2010 belies the tough battles ahead with creditors.

[FordBuyer]

So the thinking is that in spite of Ford's three year hard slog, all that might be undone by

the government assisting GM and Chrysler through Chapter 11 reorganization?

 

I think this journalist doesn't fully understand how chapter 11 really works for corporates with

complex business structures, the idea of a quick rinse/spin prepackaged bankruptcy is ludicrous.

Thinking GM will emerge from bankruptcy in early 2010 belies the tough battles ahead with creditors.

 

Also the fact that GM is expected to repay the billions it borrowed once it's making money again. Who knows how much taxpayer money GM will ultimately need including government backed auto warranties and possible DIP financing in the billions. Even if GM makes it out which I hope and hopefully avoid bankruptcy altogether, they have already cancelled many product development programs that is gravely wounding them already as Ford goes full bore with its product development programs that are needed years in advance to stay viable long term. No matter how you look at it, GM has dug a very deep hole, and it will take many years to get out of it. And you know the competition from Ford, the Germans, and the Japanese not even mentioning the Koreans and Chinese will only get tougher even if you are healthy right now.

[jpd80]

GM has no new Trucks and SUVs planned for the next three years, that's their volume products.

Sure the are upgrading the CUVs but they're pretty much secondary products.

I really can't see GM making the revenue to quickly repay all that debt.

 

It looks like Ford are the last American standing, maybe they will be No.1 after all.......

[2005Explorer]

GM has no new Trucks and SUVs planned for the next three years, that's their volume products.

Sure the are upgrading the CUVs but they're pretty much secondary products.

I really can't see GM making the revenue to quickly repay all that debt.

 

It looks like Ford are the last American standing, maybe they will be No.1 after all.......

 

I would not be surprised if Ford isn't larger then GM when the dust settles.

[RichardJensen]

So the idea is Americans won't care that GM and Chrysler filed Ch. 11?

 

<snort>

 

Yeah, I'd like to see the opinion poll that justifies that bit of blue-sky.

 

IMO you'd need to be on a hallucinogen to think that those companies will emerge from Ch. 11 to a public that is just dying to buy their product.

[RichardJensen]

Seriously, how many people will want to answer this question:

 

 

"You bought a car from a bankrupt company?"

[RichardJensen]

BTW: Is 'nagging euphoria' a feeling similar to 'ecstasies of doubt'?

[Cougarpower]

Last I read its that by late this year Ford will be the number one US automaker

[TomServo92]

BTW: Is 'nagging euphoria' a feeling similar to 'ecstasies of doubt'?

 

I was going to post a wife joke but then I remembered my wife knows my forum name.... :shades:

[jpd80]

I think the big change will happen when Chrysler and GM actually under go reorganization,

especially under Chapter 11 sponsored by the US government.

 

Ford will gap those two like they're going out of business.............

 

"Do you really want to buy a vehicle from a manufacturer under re organization?"

[Critic]

Last I read its that by late this year Ford will be the number one US automaker

 

That sounds like a Nostracritic prediction.

[Critic]

I think the big change will happen when Chrysler and GM actually under go reorganization,

especially under Chapter 11 sponsored by the US government.

 

Ford will gap those two like they're going out of business.............

 

"Do you really want to buy a vehicle from a manufacturer under re organization?"

 

No Doubt about it that GM buyers are very very pro USA buyers. So it just takes one of those to flip and now buy a Ford, and then someone in their family, who usually are USA buyers also, will say "So just how well do you like that Ford?" and I've never seen to many new car buyers hate their new car, .. answering "It's great!" and +++++++ sales!

 

Nostracritic

[jpd80]

No Doubt about it that GM buyers are very very pro USA buyers. So it just takes one of those to flip and now buy a Ford, and then someone in their family, who usually are USA buyers also, will say "So just how well do you like that Ford?" and I've never seen to many new car buyers hate their new car, .. answering "It's great!" and +++++++ sales!

 

Nostracritic

I think your predictions are spot on.

 

Good products will carry the day for Ford, I can see a re energized F150/F250 selling flat out

as former GM and Chrysler buyers move to "buy American" and support a strong Ford that

seems to strike a note buyers personal principles.

 

Ford that matter all of Ford's sedans and CUVs will cut a swathe through GM and Chrysler's sales.

What will be interesting is how the new Unitary Explorer is received - that may be a unexpected bonus.

[Noah Harbinger]

Seriously, how many people will want to answer this question:

 

 

"You bought a car from a bankrupt company?"

 

"I wanted to do my part to help my fellow Americans" would work in many circles.

Edited April 25, 2009 by Noah Harbinger

[silvrsvt]

"I wanted to do my part to help my fellow Americans" would work in many circles.

 

But isn't something like 50-70% of people won't even consider a domestic make? Going into Bankruptcy would be the final nail in the coffin for the most part

[mustangman9494]

yesterday ford closed at 5.38 a share i think gm closed at a buck sixty seven the war is already over!!!!! who would want gm,s car line?? maybe the scavengers will snap up the truck line and saturn might sell but the rest is going to go away like the dodo bird and the vw beetle!!!

[TStag]

You are all under estimating Fiat and what it can do for Chrysler. Fiat is making some nice cars in Europe, in fact growth wise they were the fastest growing brand in Europe not so long ago beating even the likes of Hyundai/ Kia.

 

Chrysler has been pretty poor for a long time now. The "Fix it again Tony" joke is something that we Europeans would level at Chrysler NOT Fiat. Not saying you are all wrong, but I think you should be prepared for the fact that the likes of Lincoln may soon be competing against American made Alfa's. That will not be an easy ride if they sell through all of Chryslers dealers. Fiat may have a dodgy reputation from 30 years ago but don't expect them to give Ford an easy ride.

[suv_guy_19]

You are all under estimating Fiat and what it can do for Chrysler.

 

 

I have heard two auto analysts today that have disagreed with you. They say that the cars are not what North American consumers want.

[TomServo92]

I have heard two auto analysts today that have disagreed with you. They say that the cars are not what North American consumers want.

 

It only matters what TStag thinks the NA consumer wants... :rolleyes:

[mike_in_va]

Americans didn't want Renaults in the 80s. Somehow I see Chrysler/Fiat becoming a repeat of AMC/Renault.

[Critic]

It only matters what TStag thinks the NA consumer wants... :rolleyes:

 

So he has a 50-50 chance of being right, like the rest of us.

 

But I wouldn't discount him. People latch onto something new and different. If your a ford fan, you are biased, I know that in my thoughts. But since it looks like it 'might' be a new deal for Chrysler you have to put yourself in the buyers spot. Most people go by printed reviews.. If the price is cheap, that seems to be the #1 draw. Second seems to be what flavor sync has.

[TomServo92]

So he has a 50-50 chance of being right, like the rest of us.

 

But I wouldn't discount him. People latch onto something new and different. If your a ford fan, you are biased, I know that in my thoughts. But since it looks like it 'might' be a new deal for Chrysler you have to put yourself in the buyers spot. Most people go by printed reviews.. If the price is cheap, that seems to be the #1 draw. Second seems to be what flavor sync has.

 

I'm not saying he's wrong necessarily. But he routinely assumes that what sells in Europe will sell in NA without regard to differing consumer tastes. Could it happen? Sure. Will Ferrell could also win an Oscar one day...

[theoldwizard]

I don't know, but, somehow I just can't see how the mgmt at GM and, especially Chrysler, can pull it off so that they would be able to put together such a scenario that they would be in position that ". . . the other guys come roaring out of Chapter 11 behind the wheels of finely tuned financial machines"

While that statement is an exaggeration, during Chapter 11 GM and Chrysler can dump any dealer they don't want with the simple flick of a pencil. Ford would love to get rid of another 20-30% of their dealers, but short of buying them out (with little or no funds to do so) it is not likely to happen.

 

In theory, any contract with the UAW, including the one that the UAW just ratified with Chrysler, is open for renegotiation. Same is true with all suppliers.

 

Once GM and Chrysler are out of Chapter 11 and the economy is rolling (2011) Ford could be at a significant disadvantage.