FordBuyer Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Market at close up about 1%. Ford share price up about 1% after blow out earnings report. Like I said, NO POP. Many stocks on big board up close to 2% and more. No idea now when Ford will get back up to $19 range again. Guess $2.6 billion in profit doesn't do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Market at close up about 1%. Ford share price up about 1% after blow out earnings report. Like I said, NO POP. Many stocks on big board up close to 2% and more. No idea now when Ford will get back up to $19 range again. Guess $2.6 billion in profit doesn't do it. Ford was up 6.5% over the past 5 trading days while the DJIA was up 2% in that same period. Again, the markets had already accounted for these profits in earlier trading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 (edited) So where to from here, - keep reducing debt by around 2 billion a quarter? - keep pre tax profits around 2 to 3 billion a quarter? - head wind from Europe offset by growth in Asia? - North America to continue powering on? I like Ford's simplified plan in the US, a higher quality Ford brand able to command much better prices with lower incentives, Lincoln as the luxury brand is not essential to the fortunes of Ford can be remade as the funds and engineering services deem necessary. I don't know what GM's fate from here will be, don't really care either because Ford has completed their in-house CH 11 and is now ready to take on all competitors. Edited April 26, 2011 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Market at close up about 1%. Ford share price up about 1% after blow out earnings report. Like I said, NO POP. Many stocks on big board up close to 2% and more. No idea now when Ford will get back up to $19 range again. Guess $2.6 billion in profit doesn't do it. You really don't understand how the stock market works, do you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timmm55 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Ford was up 6.5% over the past 5 trading days while the DJIA was up 2% in that same period. Again, the markets had already accounted for these profits in earlier trading. Buy on the rumor sell on the news. Since it didn't go DOWN on the news it's a good thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weiweishen Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Market at close up about 1%. Ford share price up about 1% after blow out earnings report. Like I said, NO POP. Many stocks on big board up close to 2% and more. No idea now when Ford will get back up to $19 range again. Guess $2.6 billion in profit doesn't do it. I guess investors are all amazed by Ford first quarter performance. But in terms of investment perspective, they want to know what the future performance of Ford is. There are some headwinds over there. Gas price was not very high in first quarter, but now gas price is 4 dollar in many places. Japan earthquake occurred in March 13th. First quarter performance actually was not affected by Japan earthquake. The real effect should be seen on April. April car sale figure is coming next week, if Ford car sale number is good, such as 10 to 20% increase vs last April, I think it can be a very good sign to investors that Ford can weather the those difficult situations very well. Then I think Ford stock will start to pick up. Also April 29th is a due date for option, I guess this is an another reason why Ford stock went down aftre reach $ 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 You really don't understand how the stock market works, do you? I guess I haven't read your book. Send it to me when you get the chance Ace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I guess investors are all amazed by Ford first quarter performance. But in terms of investment perspective, they want to know what the future performance of Ford is. There are some headwinds over there. Gas price was not very high in first quarter, but now gas price is 4 dollar in many places. Japan earthquake occurred in March 13th. First quarter performance actually was not affected by Japan earthquake. The real effect should be seen on April. April car sale figure is coming next week, if Ford car sale number is good, such as 10 to 20% increase vs last April, I think it can be a very good sign to investors that Ford can weather the those difficult situations very well. Then I think Ford stock will start to pick up. Also April 29th is a due date for option, I guess this is an another reason why Ford stock went down aftre reach $ 16. Mulally gave earnings guidance today and upped production numbers. He basically said Ford in 2011 would top 2010 profits when Ford ended year around or close to $19/share. Investors yawned. Kirby is writing book about it so tthat neophyte investors like me that have major money in the market can better understand it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomServo92 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Mulally gave earnings guidance today and upped production numbers. He basically said Ford in 2011 would top 2010 profits when Ford ended year around or close to $19/share. Investors yawned. Kirby is writing book about it so tthat neophyte investors like me that have major money in the market can better understand it. Investors are still wary. Now will you STFU about it? My God you are such a tiresome person. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 WSJ seems to think a dividend may be about 12 months away: Before Ford starts paying out cash to shareholders, it must deal with two other constituents: credit-rating firms and the United Auto Workers. Standard & Poor's said Tuesday that it might upgrade Ford's BB-minus rating this year if cash generation comes in slightly below Ford's own projections. Spreads on debt issued by Ford's finance business are close to investment-grade levels already. Meanwhile, Ford will negotiate a multiyear labor contract with the UAW in September. It will be a crucial test of how far expectations have moved since Detroit's debacle in the financial crisis. In any case, Ford is unlikely to pay cash to shareholders before then. By the end of 2012, however, Ford's automotive business is forecast by Barclays Capital to have more than $10 billion of net cash. If Ford can maintain the progress made over the past year or so, the logical next step of a dividend payment could be only 12 months away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 WSJ seems to think a dividend may be about 12 months away: Before Ford starts paying out cash to shareholders, it must deal with two other constituents: credit-rating firms and the United Auto Workers. Standard & Poor's said Tuesday that it might upgrade Ford's BB-minus rating this year if cash generation comes in slightly below Ford's own projections. Spreads on debt issued by Ford's finance business are close to investment-grade levels already. Meanwhile, Ford will negotiate a multiyear labor contract with the UAW in September. It will be a crucial test of how far expectations have moved since Detroit's debacle in the financial crisis. In any case, Ford is unlikely to pay cash to shareholders before then. By the end of 2012, however, Ford's automotive business is forecast by Barclays Capital to have more than $10 billion of net cash. If Ford can maintain the progress made over the past year or so, the logical next step of a dividend payment could be only 12 months away. So how many shares of Ford stock did YOU buy today? I'm guessing NONE. So in other words you expect everyone else to go buy Ford stock today based on 1Q earnings but you're not willing to put your money where your mouth is. You don't buy stocks based on what the company is doing TODAY - you buy it based on what it will do tomorrow or next week or next year. What does the future hold for Ford? Potential strike (low probability but horrible consequences) No dividends for the near future uncertainty from Japan disaster pressure from GM's incentive orgy recession/national debt and dozens of other non-automotive concerns that affect the stock market in general Class is over. Now take TomServo's advice and STFU! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suv_guy_19 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Not to mention Greece, Ireland, Hungary, and Portugal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark8LSC CE0464 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Ford's long term debt is down to $14 billion, and analysts expect that debt to be down to about $9 billion by end of this year. However, this could be a challenging year here on out with UAW contract negotiations coming up shortly, and skyrocketing commodity and fuel costs that will impact profitable truck sales. Maybe that's why today's good news didn't pop the share price that much on Wall Street . They are looking ahead and they see storm clouds. At the very least labor costs are going to go up with commodity and fuel costs. Hopefully no strike or pissed off workers in general. I listened to the whole webcast today, debt is at 16.1 billion. As for the UAW, nothing should change until Ford is at investment grade. In my opinion, the union should get increased profit sharing, but no additional givebacks until Ford has retired the corporate mortgage. No need to give the UAW members anything more since they refused to sign the same deals with Ford that they made with GM and Chrysler. Not a union hater, just stating what would be obvious to anyone looking in from the outside. Heck, the union should let management retire the debt, and then Ford could have a ton of money for profit sharing with the union. The higher interest rates that Ford pays due to it's ratings cost the company tens of millions of dollars annually. This could go stright to the bottom line, which, under a profit sharing deal, would be good for management, the UAW workers, and the shareholders. Everybody wins! By the way, I toured the Rouge last week. I wished I could come down off the walkway and shake those workers hands. It was obvious that they were VERY commited to a job well done. Kudos ladies and gentlemen, you all made me very proud to drive Ford products and to be a shareholder. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pioneer Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 No need to give the UAW members anything more since they refused to sign the same deals with Ford that they made with GM and Chrysler. Ford's CEO didn't have the same pay conditions as the CEO's of GM and Chrysler either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pioneer Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 $2B in short term debt, $14.6B in long term debt. In 2005, before mortgaging the company, Ford had $16.9B in debt. Essentially, Ford has erased the debt load incurred when they mortgaged the company. Labor contracts aside, what do you think the debt "magic number" is to regain investment grade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark8LSC CE0464 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Ford's CEO didn't have the same pay conditions as the CEO's of GM and Chrysler either. You are correct, but they haven't done the job Alan has done either. They failed where Alan achieved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark8LSC CE0464 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Labor contracts aside, what do you think the debt "magic number" is to regain investment grade? Somewhere around 1.5 to 2.0 times assests to debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Labor contracts aside, what do you think the debt "magic number" is to regain investment grade? Ford's debt is priced in line with investment grade debt now. To my way of looking at it, Ford is already 'de facto' investment grade, if not 'de jure' investment grade. I think we'll have to wait a while before the ratings agencies catch up with the market's perception. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebeach Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Labor contracts aside, what do you think the debt "magic number" is to regain investment grade? Alan Mulally has singlehandedly saved the company from extinction along with the concessions by the UAW and the CAW. Mr King needs to ensure Wall Street they do not intend to stir things up at this point. The workers are still making big money and they know that. The profit sharing cheques sure get forgotten about quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pioneer Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Alan Mulally has singlehandedly saved the company from extinction along with the concessions by the UAW and the CAW. So, did he do it single handedly or was it a team effort? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSFan00 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 C-max plant and targeted growth in China, (Ford) imports from Spain are the big news, and Ford will continue to diversify so that it won't be completely paralyzed in the future with UAW "negotiations." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weiweishen Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 C-max plant and targeted growth in China, (Ford) imports from Spain are the big news, and Ford will continue to diversify so that it won't be completely paralyzed in the future with UAW "negotiations." With gas price fly to $5.00. Less F series will be produced in US. More and more Fusion and Fiesta will be made in Mexico. Only significant contribution from UAW will be the focus. Bob King should understand this. I really feel bad for UAW memebers. They are very hard working decent people, but their future is grabed by people like Bob king and gaddafi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Only significant contribution from UAW will be the focus. Are we forgetting about Explorer, Taurus, and Escape? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pioneer Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 With gas price fly to $5.00. Less F series will be produced in US. More and more Fusion and Fiesta will be made in Mexico. The Fusion plant is at/very near annual capacity. That means it will have to have an overflow plant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 That means it will have to have an overflow plant. Or they'll just be content with current volumes for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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