rperez817 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Ford announced earnings results yesterday. EPS for Q4 came to $0.26 per share, far below analyst estimates. Revenue of $35.3B was slightly below expectations. Slide deck with details. Q4 2021 Earnings (q4cdn.com) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, rperez817 said: Ford announced earnings results yesterday. EPS for Q4 came to $0.26 per share, far below analyst estimates. Revenue of $35.3B was slightly below expectations. Slide deck with details. Q4 2021 Earnings (q4cdn.com) And Ford stock is getting killed today. Ford made $10 billion for 2021 and guidance for 2022 is about the same. Ford also has about $36 billion in cash. So I would say today's reaction is an over correction. Look for stock to creep back to $20 range as year progresses, but not much earnings growth for 2022. Surprised by Ford's stagnant profit margin given Ford's hot lineup and lower incentives. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jose Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: Surprised by Ford's stagnant profit margin given Ford's hot lineup and lower incentives. The lineup is hot but unfortunately we can't capitalize on it. I know its industry wide but things seem to be going backwards,getting worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 29 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: ....And Ford stock is getting killed today. Ford made $10 billion for 2021 and guidance for 2022 is about the same. Ford also has about $36 billion in cash. So I would say today's reaction is an over correction...... Old saying on Wall Street: Buy on rumor, sell on news. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 29 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: And Ford stock is getting killed today. Ford made $10 billion for 2021 and guidance for 2022 is about the same. Ford also has about $36 billion in cash. So I would say today's reaction is an over correction. Look for stock to creep back to $20 range as year progresses, but not much earnings growth for 2022. Surprised by Ford's stagnant profit margin given Ford's hot lineup and lower incentives. Most of Ford’s profit still comes from F Series, Expedition/Aviator and maybe Explorer. All the other hot products deliveries have been heavily curtailed. I’m actually surprised that Ford achieved the profit it made, they really did well on much lower incentives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) All the stocks are bouncing around at the moment but in Ford’s case it could be some taking profits and going into other stock that’s dropped. Ford declared $8.2 billion income from Rivian stock price, I wonder if that gets written down later this year or will Rivian surge higher once it gets going with production of its R1T Truck….. Edited February 4, 2022 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, jpd80 said: All the stocks are bouncing around at the moment but in Ford’s case it could be some taking profits and going into other stock that’s dropped. Ford declared $8.2 billion income from Rivian stock price, I wonder if that gets written down later this year or will Rivian surge higher once it gets going with production of its R1T Truck….. I believe it's down to $6 billion already as Rivian stock is down almost every day. Ditto for Lucid. Production is a bitch. You can't sell what you can't make. Will be interesting to see if BEV production for everyone other than Tesla can really ramp up nicely without supply shortages in 2023 and beyond. 2022 looks dismal. Tesla has its own problems with phantom braking. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordowner Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 30 minutes ago, jpd80 said: All the stocks are bouncing around at the moment but in Ford’s case it could be some taking profits and going into other stock that’s dropped. Ford declared $8.2 billion income from Rivian stock price, I wonder if that gets written down later this year or will Rivian surge higher once it gets going with production of its R1T Truck….. You would think Rivian would establish a price above the IPO price of $78. Normally the Brokerage firms value these things so that their IPO investors (which for offerings like this are their favored clients) don't lose money. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 18 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: I believe it's down to $6 billion already as Rivian stock is down almost every day. Ditto for Lucid. Production is a bitch. You can't sell what you can't make. Will be interesting to see if BEV production for everyone other than Tesla can really ramp up nicely without supply shortages in 2023 and beyond. 2022 looks dismal. Tesla has its own problems with phantom braking. And this is why it concerns me that Ford has to add Rivian as a special item boosting 2021 revenue but then a big take back off 2022. Ford really needs Rivian to get going and show Wall Street it’s actually producing and selling R1T. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying68 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 55 minutes ago, jpd80 said: And this is why it concerns me that Ford has to add Rivian as a special item boosting 2021 revenue but then a big take back off 2022. Ford really needs Rivian to get going and show Wall Street it’s actually producing and selling R1T. Special items aren't counted by the analysts or reported under the top line as revenue. It is a GAAP measure to show on the balance sheet that they are correctly tracking the value of the assets (this goes back to ENRON). It is earnings and loss, but not revenue, even when they divest the stock. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 51 minutes ago, Flying68 said: Special items aren't counted by the analysts or reported under the top line as revenue. It is a GAAP measure to show on the balance sheet that they are correctly tracking the value of the assets (this goes back to ENRON). It is earnings and loss, but not revenue, even when they divest the stock. Got it. So at the moment it’s just a way of tracking the value of Ford’s investment in Rivian, an asset that can be increased or divested. It just seemed a bit weird the way it was reported by some outlets… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying68 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, jpd80 said: Got it. So at the moment it’s just a way of tracking the value of Ford’s investment in Rivian, an asset that can be increased or divested. It just seemed a bit weird the way it was reported by some outlets… Basically. Ford made an initial investment (~$500MM), so they need to show the mark-to-market increase as income, but it isn't revenue. That value is then reflected on the balance sheet along with other assets and marketable securities. They will do a mark-to-market adjustment every quarter, so the Q1 balance sheet will show it a loss if they continue to hold it and Rivian doesn't increase its stock price past the Dec 31st closing price. If they ever sell, they will record the price received as either a loss or gain but it will be a net positive on the cash balance. The only thing I am not sure about is how it affects taxes. Edited February 4, 2022 by Flying68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris532 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 4 hours ago, FordBuyer said: And Ford stock is getting killed today. Ford made $10 billion for 2021 and guidance for 2022 is about the same. Ford also has about $36 billion in cash. So I would say today's reaction is an over correction. Look for stock to creep back to $20 range as year progresses, but not much earnings growth for 2022. Surprised by Ford's stagnant profit margin given Ford's hot lineup and lower incentives. Earnings growth is getting ate up by materials cost. I do the parts ordering for my department, seen drastic increase the last 3 months. One example is a routine part that has been $550 for last couple of years has jumped to over a $1000 for last order. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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