Instead of going electric, Ford will be transitioning the Super Duty to hydrogen fuel cells

[Rangers09]

16 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

While FCEV may make sense in a limited set of applications, BEV is much more energy efficient well to wheel. Hopefully Ford has a BEV version of F-Series Super Duty in production before the end of the decade.

 

 

I believe the Ford CEO confirmed last week that a BEV Super Duty is unlikely by 2035, never mind by 2030. You can hope, but in reality it isn't happening.

 

Farley advised the media, if you're pulling 10,000 lbs a BEV is NOT the correct solution, and he confirmed 95% of Ford customers tow > 10,000 lbs. You may want a BEV Super Duty, but Ford clearly knows what the customer wants, and based on current technology, BEV isn't high on our list.

[Captainp4]

6 hours ago, Rangers09 said:

 

I believe the Ford CEO confirmed last week that a BEV Super Duty is unlikely by 2035, never mind by 2030. You can hope, but in reality it isn't happening.

 

Farley advised the media, if you're pulling 10,000 lbs a BEV is NOT the correct solution, and he confirmed 95% of Ford customers tow > 10,000 lbs. You may want a BEV Super Duty, but Ford clearly knows what the customer wants, and based on current technology, BEV isn't high on our list.

This superduty customer that tows ~10k wants a BEV Superduty, and I'd bet many in my industry and similar with set routes would love to drop the fuel/gas bill as well.

[7Mary3]

https://www.truckinginfo.com/10195809/epa-enables-california-to-enact-its-strict-truck-zero-emission-rule

[rperez817]

46 minutes ago, Captainp4 said:

This superduty customer that tows ~10k wants a BEV Superduty, and I'd bet many in my industry and similar with set routes would love to drop the fuel/gas bill as well.

 

Thank you Captainp4, you're definitely not the only one. There's no technical limitation that would prevent Ford from coming out with BEV F-Series Super Duty by 2030, let alone 2035.

 

Maybe government action like EPA's approval of the California Advanced Clean Trucks rule last Friday as 7Mary3 mentioned above (it requires 55% of new Class 2-3 and 75% of Class 4-8 trucks sold in California to be ZEV by 2035) will help accelerate the introduction of BEV medium and heavy duty trucks. With Biden Administration Approval, California Ushers in New Era of Clean Trucks | California Governor

Edited April 3, 2023 by rperez817

[Rick73]

3 hours ago, Captainp4 said:

This superduty customer that tows ~10k wants a BEV Superduty, and I'd bet many in my industry and similar with set routes would love to drop the fuel/gas bill as well.

At what cost premium?  Not questioning your desire to own one, or that a SD could be made to work for your needs, just wondering how much of a price premium you would be willing to pay upfront?

 

Since you don’t drive far, and it’s mostly in city at lower speeds, you may get by with a much smaller battery; hence lower initial cost.  However, if not driving much, there is also less opportunity for fuel savings.  Some buyers will be happy with helping the environment, but others may also want a reasonable return on their additional investment.  I’m not sure if that matters to you, or if you want a BEV SD just because, not that there’s anything wrong with that.

[Rangers09]

21 hours ago, Captainp4 said:

This superduty customer that tows ~10k wants a BEV Superduty, and I'd bet many in my industry and similar with set routes would love to drop the fuel/gas bill as well.

 

I believe you posted previously that you only do short day trips around town and 10,000 lbs is a light load for a Super Duty. If/when they can build a BEV Super Duty with the same specs as my current F-450, then I would also consider one. However, I'm not expecting that option will be available within the short/medium term.

 

If the capital and operating costs of a BEV F-450 was less than the diesel, I would definitely consider purchasing one, but based on recent Ford announcements that's not likely to happen anytime soon.

[Captainp4]

21 hours ago, Rick73 said:

At what cost premium?  Not questioning your desire to own one, or that a SD could be made to work for your needs, just wondering how much of a price premium you would be willing to pay upfront?

 

Since you don’t drive far, and it’s mostly in city at lower speeds, you may get by with a much smaller battery; hence lower initial cost.  However, if not driving much, there is also less opportunity for fuel savings.  Some buyers will be happy with helping the environment, but others may also want a reasonable return on their additional investment.  I’m not sure if that matters to you, or if you want a BEV SD just because, not that there’s anything wrong with that.

 

3 hours ago, Rangers09 said:

 

I believe you posted previously that you only do short day trips around town and 10,000 lbs is a light load for a Super Duty. If/when they can build a BEV Super Duty with the same specs as my current F-450, then I would also consider one. However, I'm not expecting that option will be available within the short/medium term.

 

If the capital and operating costs of a BEV F-450 was less than the diesel, I would definitely consider purchasing one, but based on recent Ford announcements that's not likely to happen anytime soon.

Well, that depends a lot on the specs and what trims are available. If it can tow my toys on the weekend long distance without much compromise and I can ditch the 6.4 I'd be willing to spend high trim money, if it can only do the work truck duties without huge compromise on road trips I'd be at work trim money. My 6.4 isn't getting any newer and fuel probably isn't getting any cheaper, if we're talking a 10-20k spread to go BEV over another maintenance intensive diesel when replacement time comes and there isn't a huge amount of compromise, that seems like a no brainer to me. Very rough math, but at $4/gallon even if it was a 30k premium it'd still take less than 5 years to break even (not including maintenance or DEF, also not including electricity - but I plan on solar and battery storage in the next few years). Either way, if Tesla can build the Semi, Ford should be able to figure out a superduty in the coming years. I have no desire to trade going to a gas station for trying to find a hydrogen filling station - I'll keep the diesel if that's my options.
 

[Rangers09]

3 hours ago, Captainp4 said:

 

Well, that depends a lot on the specs and what trims are available. If it can tow my toys on the weekend long distance without much compromise and I can ditch the 6.4 I'd be willing to spend high trim money, if it can only do the work truck duties without huge compromise on road trips I'd be at work trim money. My 6.4 isn't getting any newer and fuel probably isn't getting any cheaper, if we're talking a 10-20k spread to go BEV over another maintenance intensive diesel when replacement time comes and there isn't a huge amount of compromise, that seems like a no brainer to me. Very rough math, but at $4/gallon even if it was a 30k premium it'd still take less than 5 years to break even (not including maintenance or DEF, also not including electricity - but I plan on solar and battery storage in the next few years). Either way, if Tesla can build the Semi, Ford should be able to figure out a superduty in the coming years. I have no desire to trade going to a gas station for trying to find a hydrogen filling station - I'll keep the diesel if that's my options.
 

 

Going solar, although a significant capital cost, will definitely help the break even point on a BEV truck. Since a US Gallon (diesel) is the equivalent of 37.95 kWh, in many places the electricity cost isn't cheaper than diesel. Locally we have some of the lowest electricity costs in North America at 9.59 c to 14.22 c per kWh. Even using our average monthly electric cost of 12.5 c per kWh, the electricity cost for the equivalent of a gallon of diesel is $4.74. However, charging a BEV at home will increase our monthly usage, so in reality the cost should be factored at the higher rate, since we are already into the higher tier pricing of 14.22 c per kWh. So the equivalent cost for electricity per gallon would be $5.40, still cheaper than diesel, but not too much cheaper.

 

I believe a number of US States pay 20c, or more per kWh, so electricity is probably more expensive than diesel. At 20c per kWh, that is the equivalent of $7.59 per gallon, which I believe is more expensive than diesel. The maintenance savings would need to be significant to make it cost effective.

 

When we opted for the Escape PHEV, I compared both the capital and fuel costs for an ICE and PHEV. With the Govt rebates on PHEV, the capital cost of similar equipped vehicles was slightly less for the PHEV, and using our fuel and electricity costs, the electricity was $2.21 cheaper per equivalent gallon. Therefore, since the PHEV meets our statement of requirements, and capital and fuel costs are less, it was an easy decision. Current BEV's don't meet our statement of requirements, so I never did capital and operating cost comparisons on them. 

 

 

[rperez817]

3 hours ago, Captainp4 said:

Either way, if Tesla can build the Semi, Ford should be able to figure out a superduty in the coming years.

 

Good point Captainp4, I agree with you. In addition to Tesla, these other companies have introduced Class 2 - 8 BEV trucks for the U.S. market.

• Atlis - AMV XT
• Bollinger - B1, B2, B4, B5
• BYD - 6F, 6R, 8R, 8TT, 8Y
• Daimler Trucks - Freightliner eM2, eCascadia
• Lion Electric - Lion 6, Lion 8
• Navistar - International EMV
• Nikola - Tre BEV
• Paccar - Kenworth K270E, K370E, T680E; Peterbilt 220EV, 520EV, 579EV
• Volvo Trucks - VNR Electric

[silvrsvt]

8 hours ago, Rangers09 said:

I believe a number of US States pay 20c, or more per kWh, so electricity is probably more expensive than diesel. At 20c per kWh, that is the equivalent of $7.59 per gallon, which I believe is more expensive than diesel. The maintenance savings would need to be significant to make it cost effective.

 

Are your sure that your math is correct?

https://afdc.energy.gov/calc/

 

I did this:

Vehicle	Annual Fuel Use	Annual Electricity Use	Annual Fuel/Elec Cost	Annual Operating Cost	Cost Per Mile	Annual Emissions (lbs CO2)
2022 Ford Mustang Mach-E RWD Extended EV	0 gal	3,511 kWh	$575	$2,599	$0.26	2,142
2015 Volkswagen Golf SportWagen Diesel	280 gal	0 kWh	$1,281	$3,434	$0.34	6,172

[fordmantpw]

10 hours ago, Rangers09 said:

 

Going solar, although a significant capital cost, will definitely help the break even point on a BEV truck. Since a US Gallon (diesel) is the equivalent of 37.95 kWh, in many places the electricity cost isn't cheaper than diesel. Locally we have some of the lowest electricity costs in North America at 9.59 c to 14.22 c per kWh. Even using our average monthly electric cost of 12.5 c per kWh, the electricity cost for the equivalent of a gallon of diesel is $4.74. However, charging a BEV at home will increase our monthly usage, so in reality the cost should be factored at the higher rate, since we are already into the higher tier pricing of 14.22 c per kWh. So the equivalent cost for electricity per gallon would be $5.40, still cheaper than diesel, but not too much cheaper.

 

I believe a number of US States pay 20c, or more per kWh, so electricity is probably more expensive than diesel. At 20c per kWh, that is the equivalent of $7.59 per gallon, which I believe is more expensive than diesel. The maintenance savings would need to be significant to make it cost effective.

 

When we opted for the Escape PHEV, I compared both the capital and fuel costs for an ICE and PHEV. With the Govt rebates on PHEV, the capital cost of similar equipped vehicles was slightly less for the PHEV, and using our fuel and electricity costs, the electricity was $2.21 cheaper per equivalent gallon. Therefore, since the PHEV meets our statement of requirements, and capital and fuel costs are less, it was an easy decision. Current BEV's don't meet our statement of requirements, so I never did capital and operating cost comparisons on them. 

 

 

 

You're missing the point that ICE engines aren't near as efficient as electric motors.  Out of those 37.95 kWh of energy in a gallon of diesel, what is actually used to propel the vehicle?  About 11-12 kWh since a diesel is about 30% efficient IIRC.  That makes the diesel cost 3.3 times more expensive in your calculations.

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Are your sure that your math is correct?

His math is not the issue, the problem with these kind of issues is that numbers in assumptions must represent reality.  In case of estimating energy/fuel costs we can’t use energy in a gallon of diesel to compare to electricity directly because powertrains have very different energy efficiencies.  To compare costs we need to look at actual energy/fuel usage.  And to make matters more complicated, relative efficiencies between diesel and BEV are different when comparing city versus highway driving.

 

Example in my opinion:

 

Diesel at $5.00/gallon getting 10 MPG while towing costs $0.50 per mile.

 

BEV Super Duty towing same trailer likely consumes 1.0 to 1.5 kWh per mile depending on speed; less in city and more on highway.

 

At my home rate of $0.20 per kWh, charging at home would therefore cost between $0.20 and $0.30 per mile.

 

At remote charger rates of $0.32 per kWh, cost would range between $0.32 and $0.48 per mile.

 

 

Actual savings, if any, depend not only on energy/fuel costs but also greatly on energy-efficiency assumptions, and presently there is very little data for large BEV pickups towing 10,000+ pound trailers with significant frontal area.  And also little data on highway towing at reasonable speeds.

 

When Rivian first came out, proponents focused on performance test results based solely on trailer weight, even though towing a car on a flat bed trailer has relatively low drag.  Later tests of Rivian and Lightning towing campers which are light but large boxes on wheels exposed the weakness of BEVs when towing by reducing range to roughly 1/3 of what pickup would do on its own (not towing).

 

[Rangers09]

2 hours ago, fordmantpw said:

 

You're missing the point that ICE engines aren't near as efficient as electric motors.  Out of those 37.95 kWh of energy in a gallon of diesel, what is actually used to propel the vehicle?  About 11-12 kWh since a diesel is about 30% efficient IIRC.  That makes the diesel cost 3.3 times more expensive in your calculations.

 

I did research and consider the respective efficiencies. Based on my research, I found diesel is higher than gas, at about 55 - 60% and electric motors around 85%. Since our local power is reasonably priced, as we are almost all hydro electric, the respective efficiencies aren't an issue, as our electricity is already cheaper than both gas and diesel. Factoring the efficiency just makes electricity even cheaper, which is why we ordered a PHEV.

 

However, if paying 20+ cents per kWh, my research indicated further analysis is required to include efficiency, maintenance costs, etc to determine realistic life cycle costing.

[jasonj80]

There is also Tax on fuel currently and no tax electric vehicles short of marginal plate fees, some states don't even charge sales tax! That is going to dramatically change in the next few years as state/feds are looking at different ways to make up that lost funding.  Electric vehicle ownership is going to get considerably more expensive as they become more widely adopted.

Edited April 5, 2023 by jasonj80

[Rangers09]

3 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Are your sure that your math is correct?

https://afdc.energy.gov/calc/

 

I did this:

Vehicle	Annual Fuel Use	Annual Electricity Use	Annual Fuel/Elec Cost	Annual Operating Cost	Cost Per Mile	Annual Emissions (lbs CO2)
2022 Ford Mustang Mach-E RWD Extended EV	0 gal	3,511 kWh	$575	$2,599	$0.26	2,142
2015 Volkswagen Golf SportWagen Diesel	280 gal	0 kWh	$1,281	$3,434	$0.34	6,172

 

Yes, based on the research I completed, my math was correct.

 

In your example, the cost of per kWh is 16.37 cents, which is only a couple of cents more than we pay (discounting exchange rates). Based on our local current fuel prices, I get a similar result when comparing a similarly equipped  2023 Escape PHEV to a 2023 Escape 2.0 ICE.

 

This website is great for a quick comparison, but if our electricity rates were considerably higher, I would need to complete a fairly detailed life cycle cost to provide an accurate and comprehensive cost comparison.

[silvrsvt]

So did an apples to apples comparison with a BEV and Diesel pickup:

Vehicle	Annual Fuel Use	Annual Electricity Use	Annual Fuel/Elec Cost	Annual Operating Cost	Cost Per Mile	Annual Emissions (lbs CO2)
2022 Ford F-150 Lightning 4WD EV	0 gal	6,029 kWh	$987	$3,092	$0.26	3,678
2020 Ford F150 Pickup 4WD Diesel	530 gal	0 kWh	$2,428	$4,685	$0.39	11,693

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

So did an apples to apples comparison with a BEV and Diesel pickup:

Vehicle	Annual Fuel Use	Annual Electricity Use	Annual Fuel/Elec Cost	Annual Operating Cost	Cost Per Mile	Annual Emissions (lbs CO2)
2022 Ford F-150 Lightning 4WD EV	0 gal	6,029 kWh	$987	$3,092	$0.26	3,678
2020 Ford F150 Pickup 4WD Diesel	530 gal	0 kWh	$2,428	$4,685	$0.39	11,693

That seems closer to reality, though for unloaded pick-up trucks.  If you notice EPA ratings, BEVs usually perform better in city than on highway.  ICE vehicles are opposite; and that’s with EPA highway rating not really representing highway driving at steady 70 MPH (instead of slowing down a bunch of times which favors BEV over ICE fuel/energy economy).

 

Towing large trailers at highway speeds completely changes the comparison.  And if driver has to charge at $0.34 per kWh like my son charged his Tesla (only once), the cost for electricity will likely exceed cost of diesel when towing.

 

By the way, I’m not sure why a gasoline SD isn’t used for comparison also.  Diesel is not the only other choice after all.  A hybrid F-150 at EPA 25 MPG would cost me +/- $0.12 per mile at $3.00 per gallon.  On a long highway trip, that easily beats a Lightning charging at $0.32 to $0.34 per kWh.  Maybe Ford should seriously consider a hybrid Super Duty, as if they haven’t already.

[GearheadGrrrl]

Ford can build a Superduty with equal capabilities to the diesel, the question is whether enough people will pay the much higher price? With battery costs going up a 200KW/Hour battery is going to be $40K and weight 4K pounds, so it'll take an F450 chassis to carry these heavy batteries to do the work of an F350. Then there's the charging hardware, 350KW fast chargers are at least in development but a couple will probably set a fleet back over $100K, especially if the utility needs to upgrade the local grid. So we're easily talking double the price of a gas Super Duty, and fleets won't accept that... Maybe not even if they're forced by governments to buy electrics. That may explain why BNSF railway which normally prefers 1000 mile plus long hauls is investing billions of $$$ in logistics parks in the Bakersfield and Phoenix areas that are within a couple hundred miles of the ports- They're maybe figuring that California will force a lot of truckers out of business?

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

That seems closer to reality, though for unloaded pick-up trucks.  If you notice EPA ratings, BEVs usually perform better in city than on highway.  ICE vehicles are opposite; and that’s with EPA highway rating not really representing highway driving at steady 70 MPH (instead of slowing down a bunch of times which favors BEV over ICE fuel/energy economy).

 

Towing large trailers at highway speeds completely changes the comparison.  And if driver has to charge at $0.34 per kWh like my son charged his Tesla (only once), the cost for electricity will likely exceed cost of diesel when towing.

 

By the way, I’m not sure why a gasoline SD isn’t used for comparison also.  Diesel is not the only other choice after all.  A hybrid F-150 at EPA 25 MPG would cost me +/- $0.12 per mile at $3.00 per gallon.  On a long highway trip, that easily beats a Lightning charging at $0.32 to $0.34 per kWh.  Maybe Ford should seriously consider a hybrid Super Duty, as if they haven’t already.

 

The thing is that trailers are impossible to test for because of all the different factors at play. Also I'd venture to say that most light duty trucks don't tow 75-80-95% of the time too. Focusing only on towing as a metric to be the end all of everything is disingenuous. 

 

The SD isn't listed because weighs too much to be counted in CAFE

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Focusing only on towing as a metric to be the end all of everything is disingenuous. 

That’s Ford’s take according to reports, not mine; though I happen to agree.  If not towing very large trailers on a regular basis, why not just buy an F-150?  Obviously, Super Duty can also haul much heavier loads in bed, but I seriously doubt load in SD bed often exceeds what an F-150 could haul — excluding gooseneck and fifth-wheel loads.

 

I’m pro BEV but I’m even more pro objectivity, and I just don’t see how a BEV with SD capabilities can be manufactured today at a price that many will buy, unless of course the government buys it for them.  Isn’t that the reason Pepsi purchased Tesla semi?  Sure, if taxpayers fund enough incentives, anything can be sold.  To me that doesn’t make sense because it compromises decision-making process.  I accept BEVs needed training wheels to get started, but it’s time to remove incentives to force best possible decisions.
 

If Ford can build a competitive BEV SD, that’s great.  I just don’t expect many takers at the cost it would require.

[Rick73]

As reference only, RAM just unveiled 2025 1500 REV, and battery-size information hints at what may be required.  They claim 229 kWh option will result in unsurpassed 500-mile range.

 

https://media.stellantisnorthamerica.com/newsrelease.do?id=24777&mid=1

 

• All-electric, zero-emission Ram 1500 REV to be offered in two choices:
  • Standard 168-kilowatt-hour (kWh) battery pack with a targeted range of up to 350 miles
  • Optional 229-kWh large battery pack with a targeted range of up to an unsurpassed 500 miles
• All-new 2025 Ram 1500 REV capable of:
  • Towing up to 14,000 lbs. and payload of up to 2,700 lbs.
  • Adding up to 110 miles of range in approximately 10 minutes with 800-volt DC fast charging at up to 350 kW