'25 1st Quarter Sales Results

[Bob Rosadini]

On 4/2/2025 at 10:34 AM, rmc523 said:

 

I was just contemplating a redo of my truck and van charts, adding more competitors and more details, including segment totals.

 

I think last time I looked, Frontier numbers were significantly lower than the rest, hence the "major players" line, but I think I may go ahead and add them so that I can do entire segment totals......guess I could throw Gladiator in there.

 

So my new midsize segment will be Ranger, Colorado, Canyon, Tacoma, Ridgeline, Frontier, and Gladiator....am I missing anything?

Full size, I don't think I missed anyone with Titan gone?

Same with MD - I'm not interested in anyone but Ford/Chevy there (i.e. no Freighliner, etc).

Compact, I'll add Santa Cruz.

 

Over on the EV side, if I can get Cybertruck and R1T figures, I'll add them to EV truck figures.

I don't know if Rivian breaks out their van sales, and even so, I'd be on the fence of adding it anyway.

 

I looked into Cybertruck/R1T sales, and officially Tesla only seems to do global deliveries, and also has their figures grouped into "model 3/y" and "other vehicles" instead of breaking it out further into their whole lineup, so it'd be hard to parse that official data.  Rivian is similar in only reporting overall brand sales for the quarter........

 

good car bad car does break out these models, but I'm not sure how they calculate those sales numbers, and they've not put up 2025 data yet - guess I could list them and asterisk the data?

 Could clarify OAP numbers in particular HD.  What is HD? 650-750 or 600, 650 750  In any case appreciate what you do for sure.

[rmc523]

6 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

 Could clarify OAP numbers in particular HD.  What is HD? 650-750 or 600, 650 750  In any case appreciate what you do for sure.

 

Unfortunately, I don't have that breakout.

[Sherminator98]

56 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

If economy struggles, HEV and PHEV options may lose market share to more affordable ICE.  Buyers on tighter budgets may not care as much if BS offers hybrid options.  Fuel savings alone takes a long time to pay for higher vehicle costs so IMO much will depend on whether buyers run the numbers; assuming of course hybrid premium remains the same which is not a given.

It boils down to what Ford can do within the limitations of CAFE. 
 

Given how much a new car goes for with a financing adding another $50-100 to a monthly payment, I think lower income buyers are going to be stuck buying used or paying outright for an older vehicle if they are that short on funding. 

[Bob Rosadini]

1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

 

Unfortunately, I don't have that breakout.

Ok thx for response

[rmc523]

Just now, Bob Rosadini said:

Ok thx for response

 

I'd say it's for sure 650/750.  The gray area is where the 550/600 come into play.

[akirby]

2 hours ago, Rick73 said:

If economy struggles, HEV and PHEV options may lose market share to more affordable ICE.  Buyers on tighter budgets may not care as much if BS offers hybrid options.  Fuel savings alone takes a long time to pay for higher vehicle costs so IMO much will depend on whether buyers run the numbers; assuming of course hybrid premium remains the same which is not a given.

In a recession they don’t switch to buying cheaper vehicles.  They put off buying new vehicles altogether.  In 2008-ish the SAAR dropped from 17M to 11M.  

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

In a recession they don’t switch to buying cheaper vehicles.  They put off buying new vehicles altogether.  In 2008-ish the SAAR dropped from 17M to 11M.  

True, fewer cars sold, but are they mutually exclusive?  Does average transaction remain as high?  I’ve read that during recessions even the well off cut back and become a bit more frugal (by their standards).

[Sherminator98]

17 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

True, fewer cars sold, but are they mutually exclusive?  Does average transaction remain as high?  I’ve read that during recessions even the well off cut back and become a bit more frugal (by their standards).

 

Unless you really need something, you can always put it off till things improve. Its far cheaper to invest say $1500 into a major repair to get you through a couple of years vs a car payment of $400+ every month. 

 

Using average cost of a vehicle-there was only a $400 dollar difference between 2008 and 2007, went down in 2009 and it spiked up in 2010 almost $1000

Year       Average New Vehicle Price

2007    $23,892
2008    $23,441
2009    $23,276
2010     $24,296

[Andrew L]

On 4/1/2025 at 12:24 PM, rmc523 said:

Ok, here's March figures below.

I'm waiting of FCA/Ram to report numbers before providing quarterly comparisons:

 

 

 

They must have found a warehouse of Navigators, or a bunch of the new ones were shipped/sold - that's a massive jump for Navigator.

 

nice to see Ranger sales bouncing back, but it'll be interesting to see if they cap out because of production constraints with Bronco at the same factory.  Maverick back up with inventory out there again.

 

I have only seen 1 new Navigator so far and it had a barcode on the drivers window so I am guessing it was dealership owned.  I work in a high end area and my office overlooks the parking lot for several expensive restaurants next door to us.  I see a ton of the previous gen Navigator and Aviators but haven't see a new Navi yet hopefully they start hitting dealers.  I did see my first Cadillac Lyriq driving by when I was getting in, I was surprised it took me so long to spot one.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

True, fewer cars sold, but are they mutually exclusive?

Yep.  At least they were back in 2008.  If you lose your job or you’re worried about losing your job or losing significant income then you don’t make big unnecessary purchases period.   If your income is secure then it’s business as usual.  There was no spike in Midsize truck sales when F series dropped by 30%.

[jpd80]

6 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

 Could clarify OAP numbers in particular HD.  What is HD? 650-750 or 600, 650 750  In any case appreciate what you do for sure.

 

 

4 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

I'd say it's for sure 650/750.  The gray area is where the 550/600 come into play.

Normally, I’ve taken those Heavy Truck sales to mean F650/750 because there were

other figures I used to get from Crain that indicated that  as Ino longer have that data

subscription as bloody expensive.

 

What I suspect is that F600 has done exactly what Ford wants and halved F650 sales with a lower cost

truck based on an extension of F550. There’s no sign of Ford ending Heavy Truck production but I agree

with Bob’s previous comments about offering more industry standard equipment otherwise sales will zero out.

last time I looked back when F600 was in first year or so, F750 we’re only a small fraction of the figures 

Heavy truck sales, in the order of a couple of hundred, it might be better or worse these days…

Edited April 4 by jpd80

[Bob Rosadini]

4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

 

 

Normally, I’ve taken those Heavy Truck sales to mean F650/750 because there were

other figures I used to get from Crain that indicated that  as Ino longer have that data

subscription as bloody expensive.

 

What I suspect is that F600 has done exactly what Ford wants and halved F650 sales with a lower cost

truck based on an extension of F550. There’s no sign of Ford ending Heavy Truck production but I agree

with Bob’s previous comments about offering more industry standard equipment otherwise sales will zero out.

last time I looked back when F600 was in first year or so, F750 we’re only a small fraction of the figures 

Heavy truck sales, in the order of a couple of hundred, it might be better or worse these days…

JP, actually the commercial truck guy at my dealership has told me that 600 has robbed from 550-that was probably almost a year ago.  I guess the attraction was 4WD in a 600 at 22,000 GVW and a "friendlier " truck for the inexperienced driver to handle vs high hood of a 650.  As for 750's this guy stocks mostly 750's with derated plates-26,000 gvw.  Trucks look heavy with high rated big rubber-no clue if they are 10/23 axles but one thing they do is avoid a cdl driver and the FET tax for a 33,000 gvw.  Probably should spend some time and go through the order guide  instead of guessing.

[jpd80]

24 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

JP, actually the commercial truck guy at my dealership has told me that 600 has robbed from 550-that was probably almost a year ago.  I guess the attraction was 4WD in a 600 at 22,000 GVW and a "friendlier " truck for the inexperienced driver to handle vs high hood of a 650.  As for 750's this guy stocks mostly 750's with derated plates-26,000 gvw.  Trucks look heavy with high rated big rubber-no clue if they are 10/23 axles but one thing they do is avoid a cdl driver and the FET tax for a 33,000 gvw.  Probably should spend some time and go through the order guide  instead of guessing.

Thanks Bob, that makes a lot of sense as the 600 is a natural extension of the 550 that fleets have requested for ages.

So yes, F600 pulling from F550 but I noticed in its first 12 months F650 sales took a dive while the F600 was rising

so maybe from both directions and exactly because of the reasons that the sales person gave…..it’s a nice truck too.

[rmc523]

For those interested, I finally made a comparison of Maverick and Ranger sales to see what happened once Maverick debuted....results are about as expected - Ranger sales decreased when Maverick debuted, BUT this doesn't account for Bronco's ramp up around the same time when Ford started artificially limiting Ranger sales in favor of Bronco production.

 

Ranger has rebounded to equal what it had pre-phase out middle of last year, but hasn't recovered to earlier levels....meanwhile Maverick keeps growing a lot, with by far its biggest sales month ever last month.

 

[Rick73]

On 4/4/2025 at 6:19 PM, akirby said:

Yep.  At least they were back in 2008.  If you lose your job or you’re worried about losing your job or losing significant income then you don’t make big unnecessary purchases period.   If your income is secure then it’s business as usual.  There was no spike in Midsize truck sales when F series dropped by 30%.

With due respect, we got way off my point (opinion) that prospective BS buyers will not likely be discouraged all that much from buying because HEV or PHEV are not available; particularly in a soft economy because there is no clear economic winning option.  Most people I know are not that rigid that it’s all or nothing.  For some buyers upgrading to a hybrid or PHEV from the base vehicle can be a preference without being a necessity, especially when return on incremental investment is marginal at best.

 

Below is a good example, Toyota RAV4, which is available as base, HEV, and PHEV.  I’m sure some buyers want a hybrid or else will walk away, but many others will see hybrid savings are no big deal.  That’s not to say environmental or other reasons won’t play a role.

 

 

 

 

[rmc523]

On 4/5/2025 at 8:19 PM, Rick73 said:

With due respect, we got way off my point (opinion) that prospective BS buyers will not likely be discouraged all that much from buying because HEV or PHEV are not available; particularly in a soft economy because there is no clear economic winning option.  Most people I know are not that rigid that it’s all or nothing.  For some buyers upgrading to a hybrid or PHEV from the base vehicle can be a preference without being a necessity, especially when return on incremental investment is marginal at best.

 

Below is a good example, Toyota RAV4, which is available as base, HEV, and PHEV.  I’m sure some buyers want a hybrid or else will walk away, but many others will see hybrid savings are no big deal.  That’s not to say environmental or other reasons won’t play a role.

 

 

 

 

 

Rav4 is reportedly going hybrid only for the next gen.

[Rick73]

46 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

Rav4 is reportedly going hybrid only for the next gen.

Yes, there’s a lot of speculation suggesting that may be the case.  I’m a hybrid proponent due to their environmental benefit, but from economic standpoint don’t see as much advantages as long as hybrids carry a significant price premium.  Perhaps their best selling point will be higher performance by increasing electrified power, much like Honda has also done.

 

The 2026 may also look better though it’s hard to see under camouflage.  I personally dislike Toyota front ends going back many years.
 

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a63589672/2026-toyota-rav4-hybrid-spied/

[Bob Rosadini]

On 4/5/2025 at 12:07 AM, Bob Rosadini said:

JP, actually the commercial truck guy at my dealership has told me that 600 has robbed from 550-that was probably almost a year ago.  I guess the attraction was 4WD in a 600 at 22,000 GVW and a "friendlier " truck for the inexperienced driver to handle vs high hood of a 650.  As for 750's this guy stocks mostly 750's with derated plates-26,000 gvw.  Trucks look heavy with high rated big rubber-no clue if they are 10/23 axles but one thing they do is avoid a cdl driver and the FET tax for a 33,000 gvw.  Probably should spend some time and go through the order guide  instead of guessing.

Well I finally took the time to read the order guide.

A 25,999 downrated plate is available WHEN the GVR is rated for MORE than 26,000 lbs.  In other words you pay for a heavier specs but can't register for the weights the specs support.  Obvious benefit?  NO CDL required plus you avoid the  12% FET

 

Also, you can get a 33,000 lb plate with a Higher rated chassis as long as you dont spec a 43P front axle -12,000lb with a 47X rear-26,000 for a 38,000 total

But you can get a 33,000 lb plate  when you spec a 14,000 pd front with a 23,000 lb rear for a 37,000 lb rating assuming proper tire ratings  This means you can get a class 8 750! but it is listd as a class 7.

 

so in both cases you have a capable truck of handling more than the factory plate but you are taking your chances of an overweight fine if caught😎