Ford's Outlook for 2010

[FordBuyer]

There are lots of smart auto people on here with good analysis skills.

 

My personal prediction is that Ford will hold its own and possibly pick up a little market share, but not like 2009. That is because GM will be fighting back, and Chrysler while wounded more severely will not be acting dead like in 2009. I would think .5 market share gain for 2010 would be the best Ford could do. If Ford picks up more, it would probably be because Toyota is finally feeling the sales backlash from its quality problems.

 

Possible storm clouds on horizon: Big correction in the stock market putting downward pressure on Ford stock. Higher fuel prices which would hurt pickup sales and Ford profits. Unemployment numbers that don't fall much and stay stubbornly high. Buyers who can't use home equity as cash machine any longer to buy new vehicles.

 

Bright spots: Pent up demand. New products like Mustang 5.0, 300hp Pony model, new Fiesta, and redesigned Edge and MKX. Maybe even an Ecoboost F-150 with significantly better fuel mileage. New Ecoboost engines for Edge and MKX. A better rebound in economy than expected. Stock market continues to go up in 2010.

 

Time will tell.

[NickF1011]

I think most of the people who were foolish enough to borrow against their home equity for depreciating assets forced themselves out of the market already, so I don't think the housing market will be much a concern anymore to auto sales at this point. I don't have as rosy an outlook on GM and (especially) Chrysler as you do either, so I think the opportunity to steal market share in '10 remains good. The cash position could become an issue toward the end of the year if losses aren't minimized though.

 

Overall, I'm optimistic for '10 being slightly better than '09, but I don't think the light at the end of the tunnel will really start getting bright until the early part of '11.

[Mark B. Morrow]

I think the general disillusionment of the public with GM will continue until they can prove they have paid back all the money they got. Chrysler looks more hopeless every day. Unless Fiat can get them some new product and fast, I don't see much chance for long term survival. The 300 and Charger are now so dated that they just aren't interesting anymore.

 

Ford really needs to begin to move Lincoln up market as a credible competitor to Cadillac. The MKT and MKS are a very good sign of what can be accomplished. The MKZ will need to divorce itself from the Fusion/Milan with the next model. Ford also has an opportunity to make Mercury mean something. I hope they will take it and give Mercury some uniquely styled cars to sell. I don't care about the platform. The look has to be Mercury and not Ford with a different grille and tail.

 

The economy seems to be moving in the right direction, albeit too slowly for my tastes. Ford needs to build on the momentum of the last month. The future looks bright right now.

[PREMiERdrum]

Ford really needs to begin to move Lincoln up market as a credible competitor to Cadillac. The MKT and MKS are a very good sign of what can be accomplished. The MKZ will need to divorce itself from the Fusion/Milan with the next model. Ford also has an opportunity to make Mercury mean something. I hope they will take it and give Mercury some uniquely styled cars to sell. I don't care about the platform. The look has to be Mercury and not Ford with a different grille and tail.

 

I was hesitant to even bring this up over here, but Wescoent over at GMI says that a Falcon-based Lincoln is "very near approved."

 

MKR anyone?

[97 F350]

Ford really needs to begin to move Lincoln up market as a credible competitor to Cadillac. The MKT and MKS are a very good sign of what can be accomplished. The MKZ will need to divorce itself from the Fusion/Milan with the next model. Ford also has an opportunity to make Mercury mean something. I hope they will take it and give Mercury some uniquely styled cars to sell. I don't care about the platform. The look has to be Mercury and not Ford with a different grille and tail.

 

This article in Business Week had a couple of interesting points.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-0...-10th-year.html

 

Cadillac's sales for the year = 109,092

Lincoln's for the year = 82,847

 

%-wise, Cadillac's sales are quite a bit higher than Lincoln's. But number-wise - it's only about 26,000 vehicles.

 

And how many billions has GM poured into rebuilding Cadillac in the last few years? And I think it's pretty much agreed that Ford has neglected Lincoln during the same time. Doesn't seem like a very good return on GM's investment.

 

And it also looks like Lincoln passed Infiniti (81,089) for the year.

[theoldwizard]

Actually a bigger issue is the economy. If it continues to improves, especially in the area of employment, Ford should do well.

 

However, many experts are predicting 9% average unemployment for the country for most of the year, plus increases in mortgage foreclosures and personal bankruptcies.

[soupy]

"Every consumer metric about the Ford brand – including favorable opinion, consideration, shopping and intention to buy – ended the year at record levels. In fact, favorable opinion is up more than 20 percent from the beginning of the year, and intention to buy Ford increased more than 30 percent. "“People increasingly are discovering that the Ford difference is the strength of our products, particularly our leadership in quality, fuel efficiency, safety, smart technologies and value,” said Czubay.

 

 

The train that is Ford Motor Co has left the station and is on the tracks picking up speed. That momentum will continue in 2010 with each month gaining market share and all four quarters being increasingly profitable. Add the fact that the improving world-wide economy will act as the tide that raises all ships..........think express train.

Don't forget that Ford Motor Credit will start making money like a 'Turbo-Machine'. Alan's words.

[ausrutherford]

$18-20 for stock

Fiesta outsells the Fit (for the months it exists).

Taurus has many 10k months

F-Series sales up 20%

Mustang outsells Camaro

new MkS outsells all other competitors

MkT tops 15k for the year

Fusion sells 230k, CD3 sedans top 300k

 

3.5b profit for the year

[FordBuyer]

$18-20 for stock

Fiesta outsells the Fit (for the months it exists).

Taurus has many 10k months

F-Series sales up 20%

Mustang outsells Camaro

new MkS outsells all other competitors

MkT tops 15k for the year

Fusion sells 230k, CD3 sedans top 300k

 

3.5b profit for the year

 

Ford does sell 230,000 Fusions/year if you include Canada and South America. So where do you think fuel prices will be next year.

That is the big variable in my eyes.

[ausrutherford]

Ford does sell 230,000 Fusions/year if you include Canada and South America. So where do you think fuel prices will be next year.

That is the big variable in my eyes.

 

Im talking purely US sales.

[Sherminator98]

Ford does sell 230,000 Fusions/year if you include Canada and South America. So where do you think fuel prices will be next year.

That is the big variable in my eyes.

 

Gas may or may not be expensive, all depends on how the dollar does...thats what is really hurting us now.

[RichardJensen]

Ford will outperform GM again.

 

Can you talk to your GM car? No you cannot. Big advantage Ford. Srsly. What incentive do you have to buy a GM over a Ford? Looks? Sorry. Not buying it. The Lacrosse looks nice, as does the Malibu, but nice doesn't cut the mustard.

 

Pardon the excessively simplistic analysis, but c'mon:

 

No Sync, worse reliability, generally worse fuel economy, the company was bankrupt, and the dealers aren't as good.

 

Plus it has a horrible stench of death around it. Unless it's a Chevrolet/GMC/Cadillac/Buick exclusive dealer it will soldier through '10 with forlorn remnants of dead brands. Pontiac logos on the building, on the dealer plates, etc.

 

Oh, yeah, there's also the matter of the sixty billion dollars that was sunk in them.

[Edstock]

Gas may or may not be expensive, all depends on how the dollar does...thats what is really hurting us now.

If it gets expensive, the EB engines get more desirable.

[Deanh]

I was hesitant to even bring this up over here, but Wescoent over at GMI says that a Falcon-based Lincoln is "very near approved."

 

MKR anyone?

yes please, with an eco 3.7 RWD and no trans restraints.....easy 425 hp anyone

[TomServo92]

I was hesitant to even bring this up over here, but Wescoent over at GMI says that a Falcon-based Lincoln is "very near approved."

 

MKR anyone?

 

Blue II mentioned the same thing here a few days ago.

[TomServo92]

yes please, with an eco 3.7 RWD and no trans restraints.....easy 425 hp anyone

 

Blue II said Coyote....

[PREMiERdrum]

Blue II mentioned the same thing here a few days ago.

::facepalm::

That's the bird of prey/Coyote reference from a few days ago... I was thinking to myself why they hell they'd put a Coyote in the Raptor.

[soupy]

If it gets expensive, the EB engines get more desirable.

 

The timing for the Fiesta might be fotunate. Don't underestimate the importance of the launch of the redesigned/engineered Focus. This vechile will be a big improvement over an already formidable (sales, quality recognition) car. Again, (later this year) timing.

[focus05]

I'm looking out, and I don't see Ford having much success until Q4. In fact, right now, I'm predicting marketshare loss in Q2. It should be stable in Q1. Ford might gain a bit in Q3 (although I'm worried a bit about rising oil prices), and they will finally be in their own by Q4 with the Fiesta, Edge/MKX in full swing and new products gearing up creating a lot of buzz if not sales (Explorer, F-150, Focus). A lot of this depends on discounting and fleeting - and I'm assuming very controlled moves in both.

 

A few key products are in for a rough year: Escape and Fusion - record sales this year, but they're going to start having problems against the new Hyundais, which will be priced low and be very competitive overall.

 

Focus will continue to see some limited relative strength because of its new-found reputation for quality along with merely mediocre competition. But the Cruze hits in Q3 and the Civic in Q4, I believe, and Focus will see some fall-off until the new model launches 01/01/11.

 

I think 2011 could actually be an excellent year for Ford. Upgraded engines in much of the line-up. Several key vehicles all new. I definitely think next year is all about holding the gains. 2011 is about starting the growth again.

 

Agree on Lincoln: ditch the FWD on MKS and MKT. Give them the new 3.7. The MKZ is actually a very competent vehicle - it is a tarted up Fusion, but what a tarted up Fusion... just a few tweaks (engine enhancements, suspension tuning, minor interior upgrades). The MKX looks like it might be ready for prime-time after the refresh.

[RichardJensen]

If this will be a tough year for market share, it shouldn't be for volume.

 

Escape will have a hard time topping this year's volume, IMO, but I think you could overstate the impact of the Sonata on the Fusion.

[Sherminator98]

Agree on Lincoln: ditch the FWD on MKS and MKT. Give them the new 3.7. The MKZ is actually a very competent vehicle - it is a tarted up Fusion, but what a tarted up Fusion... just a few tweaks (engine enhancements, suspension tuning, minor interior upgrades).

 

arent you contradicting yourself here...Lincoln's Weakest products (by differeantion from their Ford berathern) vs Products that look competely different then their Ford counterparts?

 

plus there is no RWD to put the MKS and MKT on to and it would be a big mistake....plus if Lincoln gets a Falcon MKR, the MKS is going to be slotted under it and the MKR will be CTS-R hunting.

[Anthony]

Escape will have a hard time topping this year's volume, IMO, but I think you could overstate the impact of the Sonata on the Fusion.

 

Hyundai/KIA gets their version of Microsoft's underlying basis for SYNC this year. If it's a big customer hook for Ford, I can imagine it would have the same impact for the them.

 

http://jalopnik.com/5440603/kia-uvo-beats-...-voice-commands

[FordBuyer]

If this will be a tough year for market share, it shouldn't be for volume.

 

Escape will have a hard time topping this year's volume, IMO, but I think you could overstate the impact of the Sonata on the Fusion.

 

The competition didn't bother the Escape this year, why should it next? Incentives will probably go up on Escape next year, but that will only help sales, but not bottom line. There is something about the Escape that attracts buyers. Price, fuel efficiency, small footprint, nice cargo room, towing ability, good drivetrains, great outward vision, and uniqe SUV look at non SUV price. Ford has a winner in the Escape and they go off of Metro Detroit dealer lots very quickly. That is the only problem with them....keeping them in stock....very difficult.

[Sherminator98]

Hyundai/KIA gets their version of Microsoft's underlying basis for SYNC this year. If it's a big customer hook for Ford, I can imagine it would have the same impact for the them.

 

Then again it might lacks the same impact that SYNC...since Sync is out already its sorta old hat.

[RichardJensen]

Hyundai/KIA gets their version of Microsoft's underlying basis for SYNC this year. If it's a big customer hook for Ford, I can imagine it would have the same impact for the them.

Sync will still offer a better feature set than the Hyundai variant.

 

The competition didn't bother the Escape this year, why should it next? Incentives will probably go up on Escape next year, but that will only help sales, but not bottom line. There is something about the Escape that attracts buyers. Price, fuel efficiency, small footprint, nice cargo room, towing ability, good drivetrains, great outward vision, and uniqe SUV look at non SUV price. Ford has a winner in the Escape and they go off of Metro Detroit dealer lots very quickly. That is the only problem with them....keeping them in stock....very difficult.

Equinox, Terrain & Tucson may take more of a bite out of it next year.