How I think Ford should replace the Ranger

[jpd80]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulGoyR9O06E&feature=related

[probowler]

Omg Jelly, that would be so sexy!

[Noah Harbinger]

Let's see, Ford cannot justify being in this small truck segment but Toyota and Nissan can and they have no intentions of dropping out and they have updated their trucks already how many times since 1993. You could go as far back to the 80's. for what it is worth lets think about some different senerios:

 

Baseline 2010 sales:

Toyota Tacoma - 106,198

Ford Ranger - 55,364

Nissan Frontier/Suzuki Equator - 41,874

Chevy Colorado/GMC Canyon - 32,634

Honda Ridgeline - 16,142

Dodge Dakota - 13,047

 

 

What I believe the numbers will look like w/o Ford Ranger:

(With aprox. 12,000 dropping out of the segment)

Toyota Tacoma - 117,270

Nissan Frontier/Suzuki Equator - 54,804

Chevy Colorado/GMC Canyon- 40,716

Honda Ridgeline - 16,142

Dodge Dakota - 24,888

 

 

What I believe the segment sales would look like if Ford built a new ranger that bested Tacoma in price, tourque, and mpg (2.0 Ecoboost w/22-23 city & 28-29hwy mpg): (Numbers include about 40,000 new buyers brought to segment.)

Toyota Tacoma - 81,198

Ford Ranger - 153,364

Nissan Frontier/Suzuki Equator - 31,874

Chevy Colorado/GMC Canyon - 20,642

Honda Ridgeline - 10,142

Dodge Dakota - 8,047

 

 

What I believe the segment sales would look like with new Ranger and Colorado:

(Numbers include about 65,000 (25,000 additional) new buyers brought to segment.)

Toyota Tacoma - 68,198

Ford Ranger - 143,364

Nissan Frontier/Suzuki Equator - 26,874

Chevy Colorado/GMC Canyon - 84,642

Honda Ridgeline - 8,142

Dodge Dakota - 6,047

 

 

Now Imagine what would the numbers look like after sustained high gas prices averaging about $3.50-$4.00 in winter & $4.50-$5.00 in summer? Maybe we are already there! Im guessing an easy additional 100,000 sales brought to segment.

 

I like Statistics. Don't get me started with the charts.

 

And what are those numbers based on? Your gut feeling?

 

If you don't have some underlying objective observation on which to base your numbers, it's not Statistics - it's BS.

[GTwannabe]

And what are those numbers based on? Your gut feeling?

 

If you don't have some underlying objective observation on which to base your numbers, it's not Statistics - it's BS.

 

Probably works for Ford...

[Noah Harbinger]

Probably works for Ford...

 

I have no doubt they do continuous surveys of drivers' planned vehicle purchases, as well as studying transaction price and vehicle content of past sales, to infer demand. There's probably an office full of people dedicated to collecting marketing data, extrapolating future sales, and comparing previous models against current sales to refine their models.

 

Multi-billion dollar corporations can't survive on "gut feeling".

[94ranger]

I have no doubt they do continuous surveys of drivers' planned vehicle purchases, as well as studying transaction price and vehicle content of past sales, to infer demand. There's probably an office full of people dedicated to collecting marketing data, extrapolating future sales, and comparing previous models against current sales to refine their models.

 

Multi-billion dollar corporations can't survive on "gut feeling".

 

I don't know... judging by some of their past decisions I wonder if that office of people do anything but follow faulty "gut feelings" and BS. The fact the old Ranger manages to find as many sales as it does is enough evidence that the T6 would be worth it. I for one never trust pencil pushers... especially high paid corporate ones.

[blksn8k2]

I don't know... judging by some of their past decisions I wonder if that office of people do anything but follow faulty "gut feelings" and BS. The fact the old Ranger manages to find as many sales as it does is enough evidence that the T6 would be worth it. I for one never trust pencil pushers... especially high paid corporate ones.

 

Exactly. If they are basing their sales projections on 2010 sales of a 1993 design then the projections are skewed from the start.

[akirby]

Exactly. If they are basing their sales projections on 2010 sales of a 1993 design then the projections are skewed from the start.

 

Yeah - they're that stupid.

 

What you guys are missing is that it's not just about sales. It's about the cost of the platform and future upgrades. It's about the cost of the plant and what else can be built there. It's about future market trends. It's about what other products are in the pipeline that need funding and which is more important.

 

It's way more complicated than "how many can we sell".

[GTwannabe]

I have no doubt they do continuous surveys of drivers' planned vehicle purchases, as well as studying transaction price and vehicle content of past sales, to infer demand. There's probably an office full of people dedicated to collecting marketing data, extrapolating future sales, and comparing previous models against current sales to refine their models.

 

Multi-billion dollar corporations can't survive on "gut feeling".

 

Remember that Ford focus groups gave us gleaming sales turds such as the ovoid fish bowl Taurus, Thunderbird "boulevard cruiser", Lincoln Blackwood, Excursion Super Behemoth, etc. If you ask a group of people what their next vehicle purchase will be, they will cheerfully scream "Escalade!"... until they see what their payments would be and leave the dealership with a RAV4 instead.

[blksn8k2]

The way I see it Ford has backed themselves into a corner on this one. They have no immediate resolution to the problem, or at least nothing they are willing to share with us peon consumers all the while losing potential sales and future customers. They have stated that the T6 will not be imported or built here. They have cancelled or discontinued all other reasonable options even though their competition has not. Fuel prices will soon begin to affect sales of anything that doesn't get at least 25 mpg. Speaking of focus groups, the comments sections of every non-BON automotive website that features any news about the T6 Ranger are filled with statements like "Why can't we buy this here?" and "What is Ford thinking by not competing in this market?" In the meantime Ford seems content to try to convince consumers that the F-150 really is exactly what they need. Brilliant, absolutely brilliant.

[akirby]

The way I see it Ford has backed themselves into a corner on this one. They have no immediate resolution to the problem, or at least nothing they are willing to share with us peon consumers all the while losing potential sales and future customers. They have stated that the T6 will not be imported or built here. They have cancelled or discontinued all other reasonable options even though their competition has not. Fuel prices will soon begin to affect sales of anything that doesn't get at least 25 mpg. Speaking of focus groups, the comments sections of every non-BON automotive website that features any news about the T6 Ranger are filled with statements like "Why can't we buy this here?" and "What is Ford thinking by not competing in this market?" In the meantime Ford seems content to try to convince consumers that the F-150 really is exactly what they need. Brilliant, absolutely brilliant.

 

The last time gas hit $4/gallon sales of full-sized pickups declined but sales of small pickups DID NOT INCREASE. There is no data to suggest that people will start buying small trucks because of gas prices, even though that's what common sense would lead you to believe.

 

Ford did not say we would never get T6 - they said they would not be importing the current T6 because it was not built to U.S. standards in addition to the possible chicken tax. Had the T6 been built a couple of years later there might have been a different result but what's done is done and they can't afford to keep the current Ranger around or update it. I also think they'll be using it as a bargaining chip in union talks.

 

I don't have any doubt that we'll see some T6 variant here within 2-3 years either as a Ranger or as a F100 or underpinning a new smaller F100/F150. It doesn't make sense for Ford to keep making 2 different flagship pickups - one for the U.S. and one for ROW given the one global Ford mandate. I just think they need more time to make it happen and they're not going to announce anything right now.

[Noah Harbinger]

Remember that Ford focus groups gave us gleaming sales turds such as the ovoid fish bowl Taurus, Thunderbird "boulevard cruiser", Lincoln Blackwood, Excursion Super Behemoth, etc.

 

 

You have what evidence that these design choices were from marketing research? Sounds like you want to attribute everything you like to "people following their gut" and everything you hate to "focus groups".

 

If you ask a group of people what their next vehicle purchase will be, they will cheerfully scream "Escalade!"... until they see what their payments would be and leave the dealership with a RAV4 instead.

 

Gee, I'm sure nobody has every thought of that before! And there is NO POSSIBLE WAY to adjust questions or analysis to account that effect. Why, they should hire you right now!

[GTwannabe]

The last time gas hit $4/gallon sales of full-sized pickups declined but sales of small pickups DID NOT INCREASE. There is no data to suggest that people will start buying small trucks because of gas prices, even though that's what common sense would lead you to believe.

 

Ford did not say we would never get T6 - they said they would not be importing the current T6 because it was not built to U.S. standards in addition to the possible chicken tax. Had the T6 been built a couple of years later there might have been a different result but what's done is done and they can't afford to keep the current Ranger around or update it. I also think they'll be using it as a bargaining chip in union talks.

 

I don't have any doubt that we'll see some T6 variant here within 2-3 years either as a Ranger or as a F100 or underpinning a new smaller F100/F150. It doesn't make sense for Ford to keep making 2 different flagship pickups - one for the U.S. and one for ROW given the one global Ford mandate. I just think they need more time to make it happen and they're not going to announce anything right now.

 

Sales of small pickups didn't increase (neither Frontier and Tacoma are gas sippers), but you didn't see Toyota offering $3-5000 incentives on Tacoma to keep sales from dropping off a cliff... they were still making good money on each truck sold.

 

Ford could have improved Ranger sales easily with off-the-shelf parts; at least as a stopgap solution until they figure out what they're doing about the sub-F-150 market. I would buy a new (obsolete) Ranger if I could get the Mexican quad-cab and a diesel/EcoBoost 4cyl that returned 25mpg.

Edited May 19, 2011 by GTwannabe

[povertyknob]

The last time gas hit $4/gallon sales of full-sized pickups declined but sales of small pickups DID NOT INCREASE. There is no data to suggest that people will start buying small trucks because of gas prices, even though that's what common sense would lead you to believe.

 

Ford did not say we would never get T6 - they said they would not be importing the current T6 because it was not built to U.S. standards in addition to the possible chicken tax. Had the T6 been built a couple of years later there might have been a different result but what's done is done and they can't afford to keep the current Ranger around or update it. I also think they'll be using it as a bargaining chip in union talks.

 

I don't have any doubt that we'll see some T6 variant here within 2-3 years either as a Ranger or as a F100 or underpinning a new smaller F100/F150. It doesn't make sense for Ford to keep making 2 different flagship pickups - one for the U.S. and one for ROW given the one global Ford mandate. I just think they need more time to make it happen and they're not going to announce anything right now.

I hope you're correct in thinking something about the size of the T-6 will be available in 2-3 years. A couple of things concern me when I try to see Ford's thinking in this matter.

1. Until about the 2007 model year one could buy a short-wheelbase,short bed, F-150 Super Cab that would fit in the average garage without too much trouble and carry four people comfortably.The option was eliminated shortly before they officially announced that the Ranger and Sport Trac were going away,effectively making the F-150 a foot longer and not a choice for most of us who would like to keep it inside.

. 2. Ford VP of Global Product Operations Barb Samardzich was on a radio show recently with a couple of car guys. When they opened the show for callers,a guy called in to ask if the T-6 Ranger would be brought to North America in the near future. He specifically stated he'd be interested in one because the F-150 is too large. Ms Samardzich responded by explaining that the company was working very hard to improve fuel economy on the F-150 because that's what Ranger buyers really are looking for. I'm sure she's a very bright lady and she realized exactly what he was looking for in a truck. That she avoided the issue of how large the F-150 has become makes me wonder if Ford has plans to address the market for a 'garage worthy' pick up truck.

[akirby]

I don't think Ford will say anything at least until the Ranger is officially dead and the next contract has been negotiated.

[jpd80]

I hope you're correct in thinking something about the size of the T-6 will be available in 2-3 years. A couple of things concern me when I try to see Ford's thinking in this matter.

1. Until about the 2007 model year one could buy a short-wheelbase,short bed, F-150 Super Cab that would fit in the average garage without too much trouble and carry four people comfortably.The option was eliminated shortly before they officially announced that the Ranger and Sport Trac were going away,effectively making the F-150 a foot longer and not a choice for most of us who would like to keep it inside.

. 2. Ford VP of Global Product Operations Barb Samardzich was on a radio show recently with a couple of car guys. When they opened the show for callers,a guy called in to ask if the T-6 Ranger would be brought to North America in the near future. He specifically stated he'd be interested in one because the F-150 is too large. Ms Samardzich responded by explaining that the company was working very hard to improve fuel economy on the F-150 because that's what Ranger buyers really are looking for. I'm sure she's a very bright lady and she realized exactly what he was looking for in a truck. That she avoided the issue of how large the F-150 has become makes me wonder if Ford has plans to address the market for a 'garage worthy' pick up truck.

Ah but then Ford flashes back with F Truck sales of 45,000 to 60,000/month and roughly two thirds of which are F150.

I know it's cold comfort but Ford is choosing to stay in some markets and not others, they maintain that buyers for

small trucks have gone to other products like Utilities, small vans like TC and full sized trucks.

 

Yes they will do everything to defend F 150 sales because that's their life blood and still is their main cash cow.

T6 Ranger or even single/dual cab Sport Track relaunched would be great but I doubt Ford NA is looking at either.

When you look across manufacturers, small truck sales are less than a third of what they were in the early 2000s,

[povertyknob]

I didn't mean to stray so far afield with my rant about dropping the short bed super Cab - it is a Ranger topic,after all. As for replacing Ranger, the T-6 works for me. If they can find a way to get around the Chicken Tax and drop in a 3.5 Ecoboost before they ship it here.....

[jpd80]

I didn't mean to stray so far afield with my rant about dropping the short bed super Cab - it is a Ranger topic,after all. As for replacing Ranger, the T-6 works for me. If they can find a way to get around the Chicken Tax and drop in a 3.5 Ecoboost before they ship it here.....

 

T6 will be built in three areas, South Africa, Thailand and South America, I think you'll find that at least one of those

areas has or could negotiate an FTA with the USA but that is probably not the point.

Ford decided back in 2006 to opt out of Global Ranger and that decision still has a big ripple effect today,

the truck was designed basically around using engine power train in common with transit, namely I-4 and I-5 diesels

and at least two 2.0 Ecoboost mules were developed, these were primarily FoA doing Ecoboost tests under the radar

for future fitment into the Falcon which is a similar weight to the 2WD version of T6 Ranger...

Edited May 20, 2011 by jpd80

[V8-X]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulGoyR9O06E&feature=related

Nice to see they tested the truck in my neck of the woods.

 

But I'm curious, exactly why would Ford go through all this testing and beating up of trucks, if like the lemmings believe, 99% of the buyers would never use the truck in that fashion?

 

The last time gas hit $4/gallon sales of full-sized pickups declined but sales of small pickups DID NOT INCREASE. There is no data to suggest that people will start buying small trucks because of gas prices, even though that's what common sense would lead you to believe.

Difference then, and even today, there is no significant mpg benefit for purchasing a compact/mid-size truck, no matter make/model. Heck, if Ford had dropped one of the newer 6spd autos and a 2.0EB or N/A 3.5L in the current Ranger platform, I'm sure there would be a marked increase in mpgs. The Ranger is practically running on 1990's tech, which is far behind the times of today on the mpg tech and improvements. Common sense will tell you that if there is no mpg benefit to drop down in vehicle size, why make the change solely for mpg purposes?

 

And like most everyone has stated, this move of not bringing the T6 to the States is mostly to protect the F150's crown. The T6 would surely steal sales from the F150, as many consumers would see an adequate and updated platform (sorry, the current Ranger doesn't fit this category), with enough room and capabilities, and they'd no longer need the much larger and fuel hungry F150.

[akirby]

And like most everyone has stated, this move of not bringing the T6 to the States is mostly to protect the F150's crown. The T6 would surely steal sales from the F150, as many consumers would see an adequate and updated platform (sorry, the current Ranger doesn't fit this category), with enough room and capabilities, and they'd no longer need the much larger and fuel hungry F150.

 

I don't get this "protect the F150 Crown" bullshit. All Ford cares about is selling vehicles and making money. If they can do that better with a F150 and a T6 they will regardless. Ford has proven it doesn't care about being #1 in sales.

 

The fact remains that Ford North America opted out of the T6 program several years ago so it wasn't created with the U.S. market in mind and that's not something you can just snap your fingers and fix. Everything from drivetrains to crash protection to manufacturing facilities and supply lines have to be considered and there's no way to do that after the fact with the current T6.

 

That doesn't mean we won't eventually get a T6 variant. Or a smaller, lighter F series. Or some type of small 1/4 ton pickup/utility vehicle. We just don't know what it will be yet.

[V8-X]

I don't get this "protect the F150 Crown" bullshit. All Ford cares about is selling vehicles and making money. If they can do that better with a F150 and a T6 they will regardless. Ford has proven it doesn't care about being #1 in sales.

The F150, and F-Series in general, is Ford's bread/butter. Great profit margins and high sales figures. If they introduced the T6, which most likely would be less profitable, and would steal sales from the F150, then Ford would be concerned because now their profits aren't nearly as high, even though they'd pick up customers who weren't interested in the F150. Plus, this could potentially impact their streak of 30+ years of the F-Series being #1 in sales. If it's all about selling cars and making money, then surely Ford's interest would be to stay with the F150, as they sell so many and they are so profitable.

[chucky2]

So bring hte T6 in as a F-100 in the NA market, except of course they'll drop the diesel and do EB. Wouldn't that still count towards their F-Series numbers?

[toddwxyz]

Ok - I am about to be the proud owner of 2 blue ovals, so don't kick me off.....but have you seen the VW Amarok?

http://www.netcarshow.com/volkswagen/2011-amarok/

2l diesel is one engine option....pricey and tiny box....but pretty close to what this Ranger owner wants.

 

but alas.....

 

http://www.autoblog.com/2010/08/27/we-repeat-volkswagen-amarok-not-coming-to-u-s/

 

It's not coming here.

 

Not yet at least....a lot can change when gasoline passes $5 per gallon....

[silvrsvt]

Ok - I am about to be the proud owner of 2 blue ovals, so don't kick me off.....but have you seen the VW Amarok?

 

The only made 44K Amaroks last year....worldwide

[jpd80]

I don't get this "protect the F150 Crown" bullshit. All Ford cares about is selling vehicles and making money. If they can do that better with a F150 and a T6 they will regardless. Ford has proven it doesn't care about being #1 in sales.

 

The fact remains that Ford North America opted out of the T6 program several years ago so it wasn't created with the U.S. market in mind and that's not something you can just snap your fingers and fix. Everything from drivetrains to crash protection to manufacturing facilities and supply lines have to be considered and there's no way to do that after the fact with the current T6.

 

That doesn't mean we won't eventually get a T6 variant. Or a smaller, lighter F series. Or some type of small 1/4 ton pickup/utility vehicle. We just don't know what it will be yet.

Go back to 2006, the global parameters were being set for T6 and the regions outside of the USA

were wanting to compete with the just released larger version of Hilux and Nissan Navara

but the US were after something smaller to replace the existing Ranger but unfortunately,

there was no way the smaller truck dimensions to be made fit under the product envelope.

 

Now, I'm suspecting that Ford NA will do Transit Connect and maybe a companion pick up

and if that's the case, I think Ford will have their own little trucklet. It is also possible that a

dual cab pick up could be built off the new Explorer but using a much longer wheelbase.

 

All speculation but plenty of possibilities none the less, it just shows how well Ford has

the market covered with potential products. I think they will eventually be forced to do

something like either downsize or just reduce weight in the F150 but still, it makes

for interesting speculation...