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What Will Happen If Gas Goes To $4 a Gallon


mlhm5

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In San Diego today I saw a LOW of $3.69 at ARCO to a HIGH of $4.05 for Shell Regular.

The daily price is changing so rapidly that the stations that haven't filled their tanks in the last couple of days are about 15 cents cheaper around here.

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Not to be insulting, but your post seems to indicate that you're forgetting the most basic principle of economics: supply and demand. If there is more supply, the price will go down. It really is just that simple. Yes, it costs more to extract the oil we have here than it does in Saudi Arabia. All that means is that oil has to be a certain price before the oil companies would bother pumping it out of the ground here. From what I've heard, even the hardest to get at oil reserves are profitable at about $65/barrel. With prices at $100, they would definitely be pumping our domestic supplies if the government would let them. At that point more supply would drive down prices. If prices got below that $65/barrel mark, some production would start shutting down, supply would drop, and prices recover. It's just supply and demand working like it should.

 

I don't buy into the big, bad oil company thing. Sure, they're big greedy selfish corporations, but no more so than any other big US corporation. I do think that we should open up more of our national reserves, but at the same time we need regulation that is more like the nuclear industry to keep the oil companies from trashing the environment. I work in the nuclear industry, and Safety and the Environment really are #1 for us - because we realize that if they weren't #1, we'd be out of business really fast. The nuclear industry does a lot of things differently to make Safety and Enviroment #1 that other industries could really benefit from.

 

No offense taken. I do understand supply and demand. I also understand that if few control the supply, they can also control the demand by limiting supply. I also know that the oil companies are not interested in investing billions of dollars into digging new wells to sell a barrel of oil for $65. In other words, they are not going to spend their own money to bring prices down for the consumer. If done right, it may work, but the oil lobby is strong and any laws opening up our national reserves would be written in their favor.

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No offense taken. I do understand supply and demand. I also understand that if few control the supply, they can also control the demand by limiting supply. I also know that the oil companies are not interested in investing billions of dollars into digging new wells to sell a barrel of oil for $65. In other words, they are not going to spend their own money to bring prices down for the consumer. If done right, it may work, but the oil lobby is strong and any laws opening up our national reserves would be written in their favor.

 

The "investors" driving up the cost of oil are also to blame. They're treating a critical commodity as just another way to make a quick buck. I've heard that the actual supply and demand price for oil is somewhere around $40 - $50 / barrel currently and that the excess in the actual current price is due to speculation. I would be in favor of a regulation banning traders from buying oil unless they are representing an entity that actually has a real use for it.

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The "investors" driving up the cost of oil are also to blame. They're treating a critical commodity as just another way to make a quick buck. I've heard that the actual supply and demand price for oil is somewhere around $40 - $50 / barrel currently and that the excess in the actual current price is due to speculation. I would be in favor of a regulation banning traders from buying oil unless they are representing an entity that actually has a real use for it.

Speculators are not to blame; this oft cited assertion has been debunked by several studies. Speculation that is firmly grounded in proper analysis of markets injects liquidity and dampens price oscillations by conveying market signals early on.

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Speculators are not to blame; this oft cited assertion has been debunked by several studies. Speculation that is firmly grounded in proper analysis of markets injects liquidity and dampens price oscillations by conveying market signals early on.

 

Yeah, and if any of that were true gas would still be $3.00/gallon because the situation in Libya and Egypt hasn't actually had a significant effect on supply - the only reason oil jumped $15 overnight was the speculators trying to make a buck on the latest scare.

 

All that being said, I keep getting back to the "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" argument. If I were to start to making big money on oil, I wouldn't care how much a gallon of gas costs! There we go, now I'm thinking like an American Capitalist again! :happy feet:

Edited by Sevensecondsuv
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The "investors" driving up the cost of oil are also to blame. They're treating a critical commodity as just another way to make a quick buck. I've heard that the actual supply and demand price for oil is somewhere around $40 - $50 / barrel currently and that the excess in the actual current price is due to speculation. I would be in favor of a regulation banning traders from buying oil unless they are representing an entity that actually has a real use for it.

 

 

Speculators are not to blame; this oft cited assertion has been debunked by several studies. Speculation that is firmly grounded in proper analysis of markets injects liquidity and dampens price oscillations by conveying market signals early on.

 

 

Yeah, and if any of that were true gas would still be $3.00/gallon because the situation in Libya and Egypt hasn't actually had a significant effect on supply - the only reason oil jumped $15 overnight was the speculators trying to make a buck on the latest scare.

 

All that being said, I keep getting back to the "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" argument. If I were to start to making big money on oil, I wouldn't care how much a gallon of gas costs! There we go, now I'm thinking like an American Capitalist again! :happy feet:

 

Here's an article I ran across this morning, intersting read: CNN - Oil prices are too high. Period.

 

There are no legitimate supply concerns regarding oil right now.

 

But even though there have been cutbacks in Libyan oil production, Saudi Arabia has increased its production to try and offset the loss of Libyan supply.

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  • 2 weeks later...

In Australia we found that previous rises and sustained higher fuel prices have made buyer chose diesels in SUVs and 4x4 and 4x2 pick ups, there is some bleed into sedans with diesels but it's still less than around 20-30% which offers manufacturers similar profit margins as performance options. I know the situation is not the same in the US and i can understand why Ecoboost is a very smart move for a lot of technical issues and buyer demographics/preferences for gasoline.

 

Heck, we may even switch away from diesel to Ecoboost too if global emission regs keep getting tougher.

 

Ecoboost in Mondeo is offering 20% better economy over the previous 2.3 I-4 NA version,

that has to be a huge selling point even if it's not quite as efficient as a diesel....

Edited by jpd80
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  • 3 weeks later...

The politics involved with the implementation of diesel technology in vehicles here in the U.S. absolutely makes me sick! There is obviously more to the situation that we are not aware of. Diesel itself has a much higher energy content than gasoline. There are vehicles (diesel) in Europe that attain 60+ mpg, and are not allowed here!

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The politics involved with the implementation of diesel technology in vehicles here in the U.S. absolutely makes me sick! There is obviously more to the situation that we are not aware of. Diesel itself has a much higher energy content than gasoline. There are vehicles (diesel) in Europe that attain 60+ mpg, and are not allowed here!

 

The other problem is that most US refineries weren't built to provide higher volumes of diesel. Remember when diesel used to be cheaper than regular gas? As it got more popular, supply and demand at work, diesel is now close to or more expensive than premium...

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The other problem is that most US refineries weren't built to provide higher volumes of diesel. Remember when diesel used to be cheaper than regular gas? As it got more popular, supply and demand at work, diesel is now close to or more expensive than premium...

 

Correct.. And there in lies another problem.. The extreme opposition to building new refineries in the US because of environmental and the "not in my backyard" attitude only contribute to the supply problem (the last new refinery built in the US was 1976).

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Looking at the title of this thread makes me chuckle.....In NY State, gassing up in Westchester county town of Bedford Hills, the price is $4.09 this morning...what will happen? I shrug my shoulders, curse under my breath, insert my credit card in the pump and start filling the tank again.....<sigh>

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