Ford won't commit to Genk

[jpd80]

Hermosillo was recently expanded yet again. Im guessing its still at capacity though for now. Ford wants a 50% rise in sales.

Mixed messages with that possible 50% in crease in capacity....

For the next 12 months, Hermosillo has to carry the entire load for Fusion in the Americas and MKZ for US and Canada but

Increased content and higher ATPs in the first twelve months should act as an artificial cap on those proposed higher sales.

 

Looking 12 months down the track, the CD4 side of Flat Rock comes on line with potential to add 50% more production capacity,

Well that's an entirely different ball game in terms of what Ford does with a total float of 55K-60K/mth capacity from both plants.

 

Mondeo, S-Max, and Galaxy sell in enough combined numbers to justify staying in the the European and rest of the world market,

the problem for Ford is how to maximize efficiency and balance local European production against importing fom say the USA

where production costs may be far cheaper due to already high volume plants adding Euro builds as incremental increases,....

 

I guess we'll have to wait and see.................

Edited September 16, 2012 by jpd80

[MKII]

Interesting document lots of stats for EU 2010

http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Pocketbook_LowRes_withNotes-1.pdf

 

As of March 2012 Mondeo is 5th in its segment of market share & S-Max which is included in the same segment is 7th. The Galaxy is 2nd in its segment of market share.

[ausrutherford]

Interesting document lots of stats for EU 2010

http://www.theicct.o...withNotes-1.pdf

 

As of March 2012 Mondeo is 5th in its segment of market share & S-Max which is included in the same segment is 7th. The Galaxy is 2nd in its segment of market share.

 

Not sure what segments they are using for the S-max and Galaxy, but seeing as they are both mid-size MPVs, they are both near to the top of the segment. Only the VW Sharan can possibly claim as many sales a month.

[MKII]

Europe's top 10

Ranking based on Jan.-July sales by

brand

1. VW 1,024,204

2. Ford 633,863

3. Opel/Vauxhall 547,184

4. Renault 534,563

5. Peugeot 510,079

6. Audi 442,201

7. Citroen 440,342

8. Fiat 407,014

9. BMW 383,591

10. Mercedes 363,415

 

Not a Toyota, Honda, Hyundai/Kia to be seen

 

 

Europe's 4-month 2012 top sellers;

% change from 2011

units

sold

%

change

1. VW Golf 161,753 -4

2. Ford Fiesta 121,335 -12

3. VW Polo 114,844 -11

4. Ford Focus 99,630 0

5. Opel/

Vauxhall Corsa

97,117 -22

6. Renault Clio 89,199 -22

7. Opel/

Vauxhall Astra

88,859 -21

8. Nissan

Qashqai

79,263 0

9. VW Passat 74,609 -6

10. Peugeot 207 71,319 -24

 

Only one midsize in the midsize segment (Passat)

Edited September 17, 2012 by MKII

[jpd80]

what we are missing is that Genk actually has two plants......

 

LINK

Recently the automaker announced it is working on a ‘restructuring plan’ for the European market, which includes a plant closure here, possibly one of the two facilities in Genk, Belgium, where the company manufactures the Mondeo, Galaxy and S-Max. The first Genk plant reached its peak in 2001 with 330,000 Mondeo produced, while plant no.2 reached its peak in 2007 with 102,000 units. In 2011 the first plant produced 98,000 Mondeos, while No. 2 manufactured only 80,000 units.

 

Analysts also predict that Ford might decide to transfer production of the Galaxy and S-Max at its plant in Valencia and since Ford already manufactures the Fusion, Mondeo’s sister car, in Mexico, it could be highly possible to begin manufacturing the Mondeo in this market too.

Mind you, I don;t think the above article is well researched when they suggest that Ford is looking at Hermosillo to build Mondeo for Europe,

I doubt the transport logistics out of Hermosillo would enable Mexico to export to Europe.

[ausrutherford]

what we are missing is that Genk actually has two plants......

 

 

Mind you, I don;t think the above article is well researched when they suggest that Ford is looking at Hermosillo to build Mondeo for Europe,

I doubt the transport logistics out of Hermosillo would enable Mexico to export to Europe.

 

They could everything to Plant 1 and have the other one idle just like MAP...probably the better of the plans. Its not a complete shutdown, so the public likes it.

[theoldwizard]

Hermosillo was recently expanded yet again. Im guessing its still at capacity though for now. Ford wants a 50% rise in sales.

And I want to win the lottery !

 

That is a huge number. Short of massive rebates/price cuts, what makes them think the achieve that goal ?

Edited September 17, 2012 by theoldwizard

[rkisler]

what we are missing is that Genk actually has two plants......

 

 

Mind you, I don;t think the above article is well researched when they suggest that Ford is looking at Hermosillo to build Mondeo for Europe,

I doubt the transport logistics out of Hermosillo would enable Mexico to export to Europe.

 

My memory is fading, but I think the key auto ports are Long Beach, Galveston, Jacksonville, and Newark.

 

Logistics from Hermosillo are tough. When the CT18 program and Hermosillo were first established, Mazda/Ford and local governments established port facilities that would allow shipment of containers directly from Hiroshima to Guaymas, a port around 80 miles from Hermosillo. Now parts and completed vehicles go up and down by rail. Even if Guyamas were able to handle ro-ro's (I'm not sure it can), that means a long journey through the Panama Canal. But to send empty ships to Guaymas, where would they be coming from? This is way out of the normal shipping pattern, so I just don't see it.

 

BTW, once you have a vehicle on a ship, the incremental cost of additonal mileage is actually relatively inexpensive. (For instance, I seem to remember that the additonal freight from Jacksonville to Newark was around $15.)

 

Probably the only alternative that would work from Hermosillo would be to ship by rail to Galveston, TX. Certainly not impossible.

 

Logistics of shippng Mondeo or other CD4 derivatives from the Heartland to Europe also aren't easy. You have to get to an ocean port; access to Great Lakes shipping doesn't do any good. These ships are narrow, are set up for bulk delivery, and aren't set up for the ocean. So you have to ship by rail likely to Newark. One advantage is that you might be able to get a decent ocean feight rate based on filling otherwise empty ships going back to Europe.

 

I can absolutely guarantee you that this situation is so stressful that Ford has all of the alternatives on the table, including Mondeo from either Hermosillo or Flat Rock, and CD4 crossover/van derivatives from OAP. We just dont' know at this point which alternatives Ford has crossed off the list.

[ausrutherford]

And I want to win the lottery !

 

That is a huge number. Short of massive rebates/price cuts, what makes them think the achieve that goal ?

 

1. Camry is a dud in the waiting.

2. Hermosillo has been holding back Fusion sales.

3. Increase exports

4. More options = appeal to more buyers

[silvrsvt]

My memory is fading, but I think the key auto ports are Long Beach, Galveston, Jacksonville, and Newark.

 

Baltimore is pretty high up on that list also...Ford brings the TC through there and there are other lots I've seen in the area with cars...

[rkisler]

Baltimore is pretty high up on that list also...Ford brings the TC through there and there are other lots I've seen in the area with cars...

 

Ah, yes, you're right. As I said, memory fading....

 

There are probably still some Merkur Scorpios parked there in the back 40.

Edited September 17, 2012 by Austin

[Edstock]

Ah, Baltimore . . .

 

[Harley Lover]

Baltimore is pretty high up on that list also...Ford brings the TC through there and there are other lots I've seen in the area with cars...

 

Here's a list of the top 20 U.S. ports, but this list is not edited for purely auto importation: http://www.logistics...heres_the_money

 

I was surprised that Savannah was the second largest east coast port.

Edited September 17, 2012 by Harley Lover

[jpd80]

I can absolutely guarantee you that this situation is so stressful that Ford has all of the alternatives on the table, including Mondeo from either Hermosillo or Flat Rock, and CD4 crossover/van derivatives from OAP. We just dont' know at this point which alternatives Ford has crossed off the list.

Yeah, this is what I mean, Ford has excess production capacity in Europe and North America but getting the

plans to work right without logistics failure must be giving some in Ford ulcers - there's no easy solution.

 

Perhaps when thing s are like this, it's just easier to right size Europe and reduce Genk to one viable, efficient plant

with the right number of workers building the right numbers of vehicles.. let Ford NA and APA look after other regions.

Doing that means that each plant's role going forward is much clearer and less subject to trnsport problems, the one

missing piece of the puzzle is which way FAPA will jump with either Mondeo or next gen Falcon (a regional decision)

Edited September 17, 2012 by jpd80

[ausrutherford]

Yeah, this is what I mean, Ford has excess production capacity in Europe and North America but getting the

plans to work right without logistics failure must be giving some in Ford ulcers - there's no easy solution.

 

Perhaps when thing s are like this, it's just easier to right size Europe and reduce Genk to one viable, efficient plant

with the right number of workers building the right numbers of vehicles.. let Ford NA and APA look after other regions.

Doing that means that each plant's role going forward is much clearer and less subject to trnsport problems, the one

missing piece of the puzzle is which way FAPA will jump with either Mondeo or next gen Falcon (a regional decision)

 

Theres no current plans to produce the Mondeo in APA outside of China. Taiwan and Vietnam already receive kits from Genk. I do not know if they could do kits from Mexico or Flat Rock to those regions.

 

on a slight side note:

 

Another interesting thing is that Brazil will start sourcing Kugas from Spain next year just like how Argentina does already.

 

 

 

Also remember that at the "Go Further" event, Ford said they wanted to increase their midsize car market share. Could they increase it sourcing from NA?

[jpd80]

Theres no current plans to produce the Mondeo in APA outside of China.

You missed the big point, 2.0 EB Falcon has near identical fuel economy as 2.0 EB Mondeo,

FAPA is presenting a compelling case to do its own mid-large car but using "one ford" resources.

No decision is on public record for the moment but you can bet something is in the works..

 

FYI, FAPA is ls scrapping some of those CKD plants in smaller markets

Edited September 17, 2012 by jpd80

[bzcat]

You missed the big point, 2.0 EB Falcon has near identical fuel economy as 2.0 EB Mondeo,

FAPA is presenting a compelling case to do its own mid-large car but using "one ford" resources.

No decision is on public record for the moment but you can bet something is in the works..

 

FYI, FAPA is ls scrapping some of those CKD plants in smaller markets

 

I understand your point but I also think that it is mainly an Australian obsession and not a FAPA thing. If anything, Ford China will probably opt for a One Ford Taurus for their market, which makes a lot more sense.

 

The low volume CKD locations are on the way out unless ASENA backs down from tariff reduction enforcement, which they have done repeatedly. The reason Ford had CKD operations in Vietnam and The Philippines is because those countries have refused to implement ASENA agreement on tariff free auto imports from Thailand. And Ford also wants to play in Indonesia (another non-compliant ASENA country) which will probably necessitate a new CKD operation.

 

The wildcard here is Taiwan... it is a historical market for Ford and one that plays an important role in Ford China (majority of the rank and file mid level Ford China management came from Taiwan) so it is unlikely that Ford will end CKD production there. It's conceivable that Ford Taiwan will source Mondeo CKD components from the US. This has happened before with Escape/Tribute production and they have the experience to do it.

Edited September 18, 2012 by bzcat

[jpd80]

I understand your point but I also think that it is mainly an Australian obsession and not a FAPA thing. If anything, Ford China will probably opt for a One Ford Taurus for their market, which makes a lot more sense.

Yes there are plands for China and a big Lincon but that is a completely different case to what is being proposed for FAPA outside China..

 

The low volume CKD locations are on the way out unless ASENA backs down from tariff reduction enforcement, which they have done repeatedly. The reason Ford had CKD operations in Vietnam and The Philippines is because those countries have refused to implement ASENA agreement on tariff free auto imports from Thailand. And Ford also wants to play in Indonesia (another non-compliant ASENA country) which will probably necessitate a new CKD operation.

Yes definitly local politics but larger cars like Mondeo i are not big sellers there in any case..

 

 

The thrust of my post was that FAPA will be looking after is own bigger car needs be it a locally sourced vehicle or a One Ford Mondeo,

shipments from Ford Europe will be ending in the future as Thailandand LI Ho JV takes up the slack and start increasing production.

Edited September 18, 2012 by jpd80

[MKII]

 

 

 

Wed 19/09/2012 - 12:04The American car producer Ford has decided that the new Mondeo will be built at its plant in the Limburg city of Genk. The decision was announced after a meeting in Detroit on Tuesday. The unions at Ford Genk are relieved. “This is more than we’d hoped for’, one union official told journalists.

 

Ford bosses have set a date for the first new Mondeo to roll of the production line at Genk. Production will commence on 14 October 2013.

Rohnny Champagne of Socialist Trades Union told the VRT that "The fact that a precise date has been set is more than we had hoped for.”

"The first part of the contract for the future of Ford Genk has been realised. This is an important step. We hope that the production of two other models at Genk will be confirmed soon.”

http://www.deredactie.be/cm/vrtnieuws/regio/limburg/120919_Ford_Genk

 

BTW, Genk capacity is 225,000

Edited September 19, 2012 by MKII

[jpd80]

Recently, Mondeo sales have been around 6,000 for the month and the combined S-Max and Galaxy about the same.

In fairness, Ausrutherford points out, Genk also supplies CKD kits to other places as well so there's an underlying product.....

[MKII]

Report today from the union reps is that the next S-Max and Galaxy have been confirmed for Genk as well. Report mentions new S-Max SOP Oct. 2014 & next Galaxy 1 month later.

[bzcat]

The thrust of my post was that FAPA will be looking after is own bigger car needs be it a locally sourced vehicle or a One Ford Mondeo,

shipments from Ford Europe will be ending in the future as Thailandand LI Ho JV takes up the slack and start increasing production.

 

Right... agree 100%

Importing from Europe of CKD, SKD, or complete build up cars (e.g. Mondeo from Genk) to sell in Australia and other Asian markets is a thing of past.

 

The production start date at Genk is really late... a fully year after US introduction. This means Genk assembled Mondeo won't reach retail market until around December 2013 at the earlist. I guess there is no hurry given the sorry state of European economy.

Edited September 19, 2012 by bzcat

[ausrutherford]

This should settle it for a while.

[theoldwizard]

FAPA is presenting a compelling case to do its own mid-large car but using "one ford" resources.

FoA needs to get "on board" with One Ford.

 

Current/near past decision to use uniqie (i.e. non-US Ford engineered) powertain controls are costing the company money when Gloabal Ranger is built for special rest-of-world applications.

[jpd80]

FoA needs to get "on board" with One Ford.

 

Current/near past decision to use uniqie (i.e. non-US Ford engineered) powertain controls are costing the company money when Gloabal Ranger is built for special rest-of-world applications.

LOL, that special application covers no less than 180 markets.

 

and this thread is about Genk, not Ranger or FoA.

 

Edited September 21, 2012 by jpd80