FordBuyer Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Click here: Ford bringing new Lincolns, jobs and long future to Flat Rock | Ford news | Detroit Free Press | freep.com Next generation Taurus/MKS to be smaller with bigger interiors instead of bigger with pinched interior room. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It takes about three years to deliver anew product and what I'm hearing, the larger versions of CD4 were begun earlier this year, so expect them in 2015 as 2016 models, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 So is Chicago going to get any new product to replace the roughly 80-100k units lost with the Taurus and MKS moving out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkisler Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 So is Chicago going to get any new product to replace the roughly 80-100k units lost with the Taurus and MKS moving out? As far as D4, as I've been saying for quite some time, I think they will be gone from Oakville, and likely Flex and MKT don't have a future when Oakville turns CD4. With low volumes, I don't think it would make any sense to move them to Chicago. So Chicago becomes the sole D4 plant. The only product I can think of would be a D4 Lincoln SUV. And/or the plant drops back to 2 shifts from 3. I do not believe this plant has the flexibility of producing both D4 and CD4 platforms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ds91776 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 This is very interesting and surprising news. But we know that D4 has a limited future at Ford because it was always going to replaced after the the current Explorer gets redesigned around the 2016/2017 model year. So...there will be 4 CD4 plants in the future ( if nothing changes): Hermisillo, Flat Rock, Oakville, and Chicago. Here is what we know for the forseeable future: Flat Rock: Fusion, Taurus, Mustang, MKS Oakville: Edge, MKX (assuming Flex and MKT are retired within 2-3 years ) Chicago: Explorer ( and possibly making the police only versions of Explorer and Taurus in current form for a few years ) Hermisillo: Fusion and MKZ. What would make sense to me is if they moved the MKZ into Flat Rock as well as all the Hybrid production of both the Fusion and MKZ because that would localize all Hybrid and Electric production in Michigan ( where the Focus Electric and C-Max are made...just few miles away from Flat Rock ). I could also see the rumored Ford North American Minivan ( FNAM for short ) at either Oakville or Chicago, and the rumored Aviator ( or MKT replacement ) being made in either Chicago or Oakville. Would the Aviator be made in Chicago and the FNAM in Oakville? Would Chicago make up for losing the Taurus with more Explorer production and the Aviator? I would place a large bet that the FNAM would handily outsell the Flex and MKT combined so Oakville would be filled out nicely...it is only Chicago that I'm worried about. I wonder if Ford is counting on export sales of the Edge and Explorer to China, India, Europe, etc to fill up production? Interesting times. I expect the next few months with the LA and Detroit Autoshows ( Ford's usual big-news events ) will offer some new info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ds91776 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I almost forgot...Ford could also export Taurus and Explorer to Australia if they finally decide to cut production in the country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 This is very interesting and surprising news. But we know that D4 has a limited future at Ford because it was always going to replaced after the the current Explorer gets redesigned around the 2016/2017 model year. I don't see the current Explorer going away till 2019 or so..it only came out in 2012... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ds91776 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 No. The Explorer came out for the 2011 model year in calendar year 2010. For most segments in the North American market, a car design lasts between 5-6 model years. For instance: 98-2002 Accord, 03-07 Accord, 08-12 Accord, 13-? Accord. There are a few segments where the cadence is a little longer like: Full size cars ( Maxima, Avalon, Taurus ) usually 6 years; Minivans usually 6-7 years, Trucks, Large SUVS, B-cars, and European luxury cars...each which usually last between 6-7 years. But for the majority of C-cars, CD-cars, and CUVS...the cadence is every 5 model years. The Explorer came out in 2010 for the 2011 model year. If it is stays on a 5 model year cadence it will be redesigned for the 2016 model year in 2015. If it goes to a 6 model year cadence it will be redesigned for the 2017 model year in 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sullynd Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Assuming this happens, it will be interesting to see if the Police Interceptor continues on at CAP as is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 No. The Explorer came out for the 2011 model year in calendar year 2010. For most segments in the North American market, a car design lasts between 5-6 model years. For instance: 98-2002 Accord, 03-07 Accord, 08-12 Accord, 13-? Accord. There are a few segments where the cadence is a little longer like: Full size cars ( Maxima, Avalon, Taurus ) usually 6 years; Minivans usually 6-7 years, Trucks, Large SUVS, B-cars, and European luxury cars...each which usually last between 6-7 years. But for the majority of C-cars, CD-cars, and CUVS...the cadence is every 5 model years. The Explorer came out in 2010 for the 2011 model year. If it is stays on a 5 model year cadence it will be redesigned for the 2016 model year in 2015. If it goes to a 6 model year cadence it will be redesigned for the 2017 model year in 2016. I'm talking platform wise...the Current Explorer will be restyled in 2015, I agree with you on that...but platform change won't be til 2018-19 earliest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ds91776 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I understand where you are coming from...but I doubt Ford would hold on to D4 ( other than possible Police Versions ) for that long. As I understand it the Explorer's version of D4 wasn't altered heavily from the Flex, Taurus, MKS, etc. Also...Ford needs to gain MPG and drop pounds on all of its vehicles. The easiest way for the Explorer to drop weight would be to changed platforms as soon as possible. I would guess that the Explorer needs to drop 100-200 pounds for the 2016/2017 model years at the very least. I would be shocked if Ford could easily drop that much weigh with the current D4 platform. I am guessing that when the new Edge and MKX are announced/revealed ( this autoshow season?) we might learn a bit of news about how CD4 will be used in CUVs and Minivans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkisler Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I'm talking platform wise...the Current Explorer will be restyled in 2015, I agree with you on that...but platform change won't be til 2018-19 earliest I agree with you. With all of the other priorities Ford has, I don't see changing the platform for Explorer is the highest. It would be a massive investment in Chicago. I think Ford will leave well enough alone for now. Interceptor becomes a vestigial product much like CV Interceptor was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkisler Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I understand where you are coming from...but I doubt Ford would hold on to D4 ( other than possible Police Versions ) for that long. As I understand it the Explorer's version of D4 wasn't altered heavily from the Flex, Taurus, MKS, etc. Also...Ford needs to gain MPG and drop pounds on all of its vehicles. The easiest way for the Explorer to drop weight would be to changed platforms as soon as possible. I would guess that the Explorer needs to drop 100-200 pounds for the 2016/2017 model years at the very least. I would be shocked if Ford could easily drop that much weigh with the current D4 platform. I am guessing that when the new Edge and MKX are announced/revealed ( this autoshow season?) we might learn a bit of news about how CD4 will be used in CUVs and Minivans. I don't know exactly how much weight Ford get rid of by changing platforms, and exactly how much flexibility the CD4 has to go up to the size of the Explorer. If Ford wants to do a people carrier, CD4 might be OK. But if history is any indication CD4 might not work as a build-from for a true U.S.-type minivan nor necessarily an Explorer (based on W355 minivan project which unsuccessfully tried to use CD3s). If you have to make a lot of changes, you can sometimes negate what you thought were going to be savings in engineering workload and vehicle attributies (like weight). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I don't know exactly how much weight Ford get rid of by changing platforms, and exactly how much flexibility the CD4 has to go up to the size of the Explorer. I have a theory that Ford will go with a unique platform for the Edge, Explorer, MKX, minivan, etc., for just that reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkisler Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I have a theory that Ford will go with a unique platform for the Edge, Explorer, MKX, minivan, etc., for just that reason. I'm not so sure how it's going to work. This is the time where I really miss being in a large room with package drawings covering the walls and Ford and competitive vehicles on lifts right through the door!! Ford is certainly following FoE's lead for platform strategy for everything other than BOF trucks at this point. FoE paid close attention to VW in the ATKearney study that got them to the platforms they (and we) now have. VW's recent platform strategy certainly will be studied in detail to determine if there is anything Ford can learn. Certainly any platform that is geared to larger vehicles could be "CD4-friendly." D4 will certainly have to be pitched overboard at some point. It oinky and expensive, although safe. Ford now produces D4 in the same body shop as the CD3s in Oakville, so I think it will be very interesting to see what happens when the new Edge is introduced. D4's gone from Oakville would be my guess. Too bad OAC Sparky doesn't seem to post here anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 (edited) I have a theory that Ford will go with a unique platform for the Edge, Explorer, MKX, minivan, etc., for just that reason. Just a hunch,I believe that Edge and MKX are under development at the moment in what's being termed CD4.2 and if anything will be a heavy rejiggering of the S-Max-Galaxy vehicle attributes to get a US styled utility. I would hazard a guess that attribute prototypes are running around and being mistaken for Euro Fords.. Ford likes the rugged D3 at the moment but maybe there's an opportunity to do something about those heavy doors it uses... Volvo actually changed their P2 (D3) into P24 by doing that amongst other framing and engineering changes to create P24, their EUCD. I wonder if the slimmer and lighter EUCD-CD4 Doors could be made to fit onto Explorer and Taurus PI for a nice little interim improvement.. Edited October 21, 2012 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BORG Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 (edited) Since Edge/MKX & Explorer are sitting on heavily modified versions of their sedan counterparts, it makes sense to finally move these together on a shared platform based on CD4. If that's the case, then the next Explorer can't be too far away, especially since Lincoln wants one. I have a hard time believing the next Explorer won't be here by 2015 as a My 2016 vehicle. Edited October 21, 2012 by BORG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I have a hard time believing the next Explorer won't be here by 2015 as a My 2016 vehicle. Why? Even though the explorer is shared with other D3 platforms...it still needs to pay for itself and maybe even help off set the other costs of the D3 platform mates. If an Avaitor comes out in the next 2 years, it will be D3 based and makes sense to keep the current platform for a couple more years, since its still supporting the PI and PIU platforms...and maybe move them over to CD4 base products in 2019 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 (edited) I'm not so sure how it's going to work. This is the time where I really miss being in a large room with package drawings covering the walls and Ford and competitive vehicles on lifts right through the door!! Ford is certainly following FoE's lead for platform strategy for everything other than BOF trucks at this point. FoE paid close attention to VW in the ATKearney study that got them to the platforms they (and we) now have. VW's recent platform strategy certainly will be studied in detail to determine if there is anything Ford can learn. Certainly any platform that is geared to larger vehicles could be "CD4-friendly." I think this is where you summon the old Emerson dictum about foolish consistency. VW has nowhere near the CUV presence that Ford does, or the presence in the NA market. To ignore the opportunity to combine the larger CUVs/minivan (including, possibly, the S-Max & Galaxy) on a common architecture that will--among other things--offer the opportunity for better 3rd row packaging, in order to hew closely to recommendations based on how VW does things....? I mean, that's got to be getting close to 800k units of global volume---and high priced volume as well. That this platform would be derivative of CD4 seems a given It seems the only way you make the minivan make sense is by trying to package the rear of the minivan as closely as possible to the Explorer, Edge, MKX, Aviator, etc. (although in the case of the Edge/MKX, that revised rear packaging would benefit cargo space as opposed to 3rd row accommodations. Edited October 21, 2012 by RichardJensen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2b2 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I just don't understand putting so many body styles in FlatRock (unless the Mustang moves out) ...Ford likes the rugged D3 at the moment but maybe there's an opportunity to do something about those heavy doors it uses... Volvo actually changed their P2 (D3) into P24 by doing that amongst other framing and engineering changes to create P24, their EUCD. I wonder if the slimmer and lighter EUCD-CD4 Doors could be made to fit onto Explorer and Taurus PI for a nice little interim improvement.. I just wish that, before D3/4 bites the dust or gets relegated to LEO, that they'd build a Big Black Car on it, looking like the MKT *CONCEPT* but with a new front end...a 5.0v8 would be nice too kinda think the TC-lovers &or Panther Mafia as well as Lincoln's heritage all deserve it name='[/u]BORG']I have a hard time believing the next Explorer won't be here by 2015 as a My 2016 vehicle. tho my favorite online document has probably reached its expire-by date: CD4 Explorer Job1 = Q4 2015 anyone's guess whether that'd be a late 2016MY or early 2017MY btw the Interceptors are/were due to go until Q1 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I just don't understand putting so many body styles in FlatRock (unless the Mustang moves out) Maybe the Taurus and MKS are switiching to GRWD platform when they are redone fit perfect with the new GRWD Mustang. --- . Flat Rock could be a Huge plant, they also need to add jobs there so if/when they close Woodhaven Stamping in the next contract they have a place to send those workers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2b2 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Maybe the Taurus and MKS are switiching to GRWD platform when they are redone fit perfect with the new GRWD Mustang. --- .... guess I'm still buying into what I heard about the Mustang platform being "silo'ed" to only similar sized cars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosetang Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 FRAP's pretty huge, and the way the union contracts work it makes more sense to squeeze everything they can out of a working plant than to open/re-open another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kris Kolman Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Call me confused about how Ford does this and keeps enough D3/D4 volume on PI and PIU alone. The totality of the patrol cars sold in NA are around 70k, and Ford doesn't have nearly the market domination they had with the CV. So either they are going to jerk around and potentially upset police agencies by changing to a new platform, or other products need to remain on D3/D4. In order to make the PI and PIU business case healthy the Explorer as the platform volume leader at a minimum needs to stay. Even then it will be a struggle for Chicago and D3/D4 to remove the ~120k sales per year that represent the Taurus, MKS, Flex, and MKT. As for those that think the new for '11 Explorer is old in the tooth... Have you compared the rest of the market: Dodge Durango reintroduced in '11, along side the Explorer Volkswagen Touareg introduced in '04, updated in '11 Toyota Highlander introduced in '01, updated in '08 GMC Acadia introduced in '07, and little changed Honda Pilot introduced in '03, updated in '09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Explorer will probably be the last product moved to this putative new CUV architecture, meaning plenty of years of PI,PIU,Explorer/Aviator volume. And if police agencies are stuck with a new Ford platform after *only* eight years, give or take, well, it's no worse than what they'd get from any other vendor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.