Ford Motor Company 2015 Q1 Results

[jpd80]

 

Eh, it makes production easier only having to worry about one powertrain being available in the mild refresh. I'm sure with the new models, we'll see multiple powertrains become available.

I understand and accept that but adding the V8 could have in theory almost doubled output of both Expedition and Navigator.

If indeed that was the case, the payback (ROI as good as F150) in just over two years would have been enough to justify it,

while having a more comprehensive place holder building sales well ahead of the new vehicle.

 

Think of it as a "warm up act" that gets the crowd going before the main attraction..

 

We all look with excitement for what is coming, Ford producing its own "Range Rovers", who could ask for more.

 

Maybe an Aluminum body Excursion with 6.7 diesel as a range topper?

Edited May 2, 2015 by jpd80

[fuzzymoomoo]

They have to be careful if they do go with the whole "producing their own Range Rovers" thing. Trying to emulate someone else guarantees nothing. Just look at Cadillac and how well their constant desire to emulate BMW is working out for them.

[jpd80]

They have to be careful if they do go with the whole "producing their own Range Rovers" thing. Trying to emulate someone else guarantees nothing. Just look at Cadillac and how well their constant desire to emulate BMW is working out for them.

Oh, I have a feeling that Ford is on relatively safe ground with an alloy body SUV after F150,

Expedition and Navigator already exist..that is worlds apart from copying someone else's car plan...

Edited May 2, 2015 by jpd80

[rmc523]

I understand and accept that but adding the V8 could have in theory almost doubled output of both Expedition and Navigator.

If indeed that was the case, the payback (ROI as good as F150) in just over two years would have been enough to justify it,

while having a more comprehensive place holder building sales well ahead of the new vehicle.

 

Think of it as a "warm up act" that gets the crowd going before the main attraction..

 

We all look with excitement for what is coming, Ford producing its own "Range Rovers", who could ask for more.

 

Maybe an Aluminum body Excursion with 6.7 diesel as a range topper?

See, I just don't think offering the 5.0 would double sales like you're saying. Could it make its way into the new one? Possibly. But for a mild last minute "back on again" refresh, it likely just wasn't worth it.

[banker55]

 

do you have the numbers for Toyota or VW?

 

 

 

3.6% margin is awesome......... no it's not.

 

maybe Ford should work harder to diversify away from being so dependent on one product.

Toyota NA operating profit is $1977 per unit. Looks like VW does not break out figures for VW in North America. Not good world wide so close to break

even here.

[banker55]

Interestingly, I just ran across this column on the AN Web site:

http://www.autonews.com/article/20150428/BLOG06/150429797/the-f-150-fords-heavy-duty-profit-hauler?cciid=email-autonews-daily

I think Nick Bunkley's lead-in is telling:

Based on Ford's statements, he estimates that Ford is pulling in just over $13K in profit, on average, from each F150 sold. I don't feel like checking his math, but that's a fair chunk of change if he's even in the ballpark.

Ford shines on operating cash flow. Last three years $9.045 billion, $10.444 billion and $14.507 billion.

[jpd80]

Ford shines on operating cash flow. Last three years $9.045 billion, $10.444 billion and $14.507 billion.

Thanks for the information, would you have the after tax profit figures per vehicle for Ford, GM and FCA?

I have a feeling that the after tax profit for Ford and GM last quarter is is very close to each other but tthat

GM produces many more vehicles than Ford.while FCA's after tax profit is even lower..

[akirby]

Doubtful that a buyer would walk away from the 3.5EB just because it's not a 5.0 V8. Not many at least.

[fuzzymoomoo]

OMG WHERE ARE THE PUSHROD V8S THEY WOULD SELL BY THE THOUSANDS THEY ARE MAKING A BIG MISTAKE BY NOT HAVING A 450CI PUSHROD CARBURETED V8

[fuzzymoomoo]

In all seriousness though, this whole "it needs a V8" argument is a little tireing to me. Clearly they didn't sell very many of them in recent years so the market dictated that it's not a necessary option AT THIS POINT.

 

That's not to say that they won't be able to offer one in the future, but for right now, I think the market spoke for itself

 

Oh yeah, by the way, there's a little thing called CAFE standing in the way. Perhaps the feel like pulling back and regrouping is the better long term option.

[jpd80]

Doubtful that a buyer would walk away from the 3.5EB just because it's not a 5.0 V8. Not many at least.

Not disputing that but I feel it's a similar case to F150, some buyers still prefer the linear power delivery

and sure you could run with just 3.5 EB and probably keep up to 75% of sales..adding the V8 helps

the product mix while increasing total numbers. It was just a thought to have a second place holder there..

 

The 5.4 3V was so out of date, it's hard to gain any meaningful sales data for comparison to the modern 5.0 V8.

Edited May 2, 2015 by jpd80

[630land]

"... maybe Ford should build more products, its just a thought."

 

Make what sells, not for hobbyists to "look at and dream about", but then not buy since "my wife wants an SUV".

[jpd80]

If Ford sold F150 with only the one 3.5 EB V6 engine, what would sales be like?

Production would be super efficient but surely sales would suffer.

[rmc523]

If Ford sold F150 with only the one 3.5 EB V6 engine, what would sales be like?

Production would be super efficient but surely sales would suffer.

Expedition is roughly 4.5-5% the volume of F-150 sales (at least last month) - hardly a good comparison. It's a mild refresh to just get the product through until the full redesign, when I'm sure additional powertrains will be optional.

[630land]

The new Transit full szie vans are a home run, some are ignoring this and whining about 'no more Ranger'. Businesses are buying them like hotcakes, and I bet they bring in more profits than the ancient Ranger. And certainly more than Focus wagons that would collect dust.

 

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2015/05/05/boring-old-van-selling-like-mad/26942147/

 

"Ford sold more vans last month than it has in any April in almost 30 years."

 

"But the offering that’s running away with the segment lately comes from Ford, which decided a few years ago to stop selling its midsize pickup truck [you know what] ... and start making vans here that it has long hawked abroad."

 

So much for the claim that "Fleets will dump Ford since the Transit isn't BOF"

Edited May 6, 2015 by 630land

[Sevensecondsuv]

Ok now how about they use all those profits (and maybe the diesel engine too) from the Transit to bring us a new Ranger!

[630land]

Tell your Congressman to repeal the 'Chicken Tax' and maybe imported Thai Rangers will come in.

[jpd80]

Ok now how about they use all those profits (and maybe the diesel engine too) from the Transit to bring us a new Ranger!

So you'd like Ford to use Transit's profits to subsidize T6 Ranger to get even less potential profit.

All that would do is potentially add another 10,000 builds a month for the same amount of profit it makes now.

 

Where's the advantage in that for Ford?

[Sevensecondsuv]

You missed the implied emoji

Edited May 7, 2015 by Sevensecondsuv

[630land]

Use profits to continuously improve what sells, and for future, not trying to "bring back" the past.

[jpd80]

Would 10,000/mth production and sales of Ranger & Everest be sufficient to justify its inclusion?

Never say never but gee, you's want to be darned sure of the market to make that commitiment

 

Maybe watch the fortunes of GM's Colorado/Canyon and see how that pans out

versus simply going all out with maximizing half ton production and sales.

[bzcat]

Would 10,000/mth production and sales of Ranger & Everest be sufficient to justify its inclusion?

Never say never but gee, you's want to be darned sure of the market to make that commitiment

 

Maybe watch the fortunes of GM's Colorado/Canyon and see how that pans out

versus simply going all out with maximizing half ton production and sales.

 

Colorado/Canyon has been on sale for 9 months and GM has sold a total of 37k units.

 

I think if there is really 10k a month potential here, Ford would be in the market already. Transit Connect is averaging 4k per month now in the US and Ford is still on the fence about building the van here - they would rather import it with Chicken Tax (Ford is paying them now pending an appeal) than commit to building the van here. That tells you something about Ford's internal ROI evaluation on capital investment on new production capacity in NAFTA zone.

[Sevensecondsuv]

The GM twins are currently on track for 100k/year. No one knows how sustainable that is, but one could imagine that sales will continue to increase as GM brings out more configurations and the diesel engine option.

 

If, and it's a big if at this point, the GM trucks keep selling, it'd be fair to say that Ford could sell an equal number of Rangers. Combine that with a new Bronco (or Everest or whatever you want to call the BOF SUV version of the platform) and you'd have a 100k-120k/year market for the platform. Seems like that'd be more than enough to make it profitable to build them here. People will scream "but the f150 is more profitable!", but in reality it would all boil down to what kind of margins Ford could make on the Ranger platform multiplied by the additional volume versus f150 alone. I suspect a crew cab diesel Ranger could be sold for a pretty respectable margin.

 

I suspect Ford is paying close attention to GM's experiment and has a backup plan or two if the market surprises them.

Edited May 9, 2015 by Sevensecondsuv

[RichardJensen]

The Bronco is coming and it is not going to be built on the Ranger platform.

 

Ford is not going to bring the Everest to the United States. You might as well try to bring back four wheel drum brakes.

[Sevensecondsuv]

What will the Bronco be based on then? If not F150, then it seems Ford is wasting a pile of cash on a bespoke low volume NA platform when they have the Ranger/Everest designed and built world-wide.

 

The only hole in Ford's SUV lineup is a rwd architecture BOF model smaller than the Expedition. So unless it's going to be a 2 door Expedition off the f150 platform, why wouldn't they use the Ranger platorm? It makes no sense to develop something new.

Edited May 9, 2015 by Sevensecondsuv