Ford Motor Company July 2015 Sales Results

[Deanh]

adding...ZERO F-150 worktrucks avail for retail sales in reg cab or Supercab...8ft bed already at buildout , and commodity issues with 5.0 engine. 2016s not avail for order till at least October....theres a LOT of lost sales due to limited availability. Flex...good luck, apparently made in same plant as Edge, and since So Cal is basically the Flex's major market, it got ignored in order to up Edge Production ( which strangely is a majority of AWD mix ). Mustang, still limited in supply. Transit supply is a joke...2015 Wagons no longer being made...wait for the 16s, hope supply gets better. Now, from Dr Doom to the half glass full guy.....how much better would numbers have be, or BE, if there weren't so many supply issues???????

Edited August 4, 2015 by Deanh

[fuzzymoomoo]

Dean, I know you are worried about supply issues, and you mentioned Mustang specifically. It's not going to get better any time soon. MY2016 just started production late Friday evening, and the right hand drive models started production today. So until they bring on a third shift here (people I've talked to say January, in time for Continental trials to start) buckle up, the Mustang will likely be in short supply.

[silvrsvt]

My guess is Fusion moves to CD6 with a LWB option like the Camry/Avalon to replace Taurus. Current CD4 Taurus and Conti were built for China primarily and CD4 was all that was available at the time.

 

Still doesn't add up...I think you been oversold on the flexibility of the CD6.

 

The Taurus can be replaced no problem with a CD4 based product, fixing most of the issues of the current car.

 

For all you know, the CD6 may be nothing more then a stretched out CD4 that is for larger CUV and maybe a minivan...

 

We've been talking about a RWD sedan product from Ford for what, almost 10-15 years with nothing ever showing up.

[silvrsvt]

adding...ZERO F-150 worktrucks avail for retail sales in reg cab or Supercab...8ft bed already at buildout , and commodity issues with 5.0 engine. 2016s not avail for order till at least October....theres a LOT of lost sales due to limited availability. Flex...good luck, apparently made in same plant as Edge, and since So Cal is basically the Flex's major market, it got ignored in order to up Edge Production ( which strangely is a majority of AWD mix ). Mustang, still limited in supply. Transit supply is a joke...2015 Wagons no longer being made...wait for the 16s, hope supply gets better. Now, from Dr Doom to the half glass full guy.....how much better would numbers have be, or BE, if there weren't so many supply issues???????

 

Double edge sword...I guess its better then swimming in unsold product with lots of incentives on them.

[Deanh]

no....Ford cut back production a few years ago so that wouldn't happen again...30%...righ now our invent tory reflects a 60% reduction.............way too many issues with way too many lines...

[Deanh]

fussy, Mustang is least of our worries...but annoying anyways... can understand issues with one line....but F-150 is inexcusable, and a total of 3 or 4....?....IMO that reflects poor management, supply issues or both...cant recall this many issues with so many lines....ever.

[akirby]

 

Still doesn't add up...I think you been oversold on the flexibility of the CD6.

 

The Taurus can be replaced no problem with a CD4 based product, fixing most of the issues of the current car.

 

For all you know, the CD6 may be nothing more then a stretched out CD4 that is for larger CUV and maybe a minivan...

 

We've been talking about a RWD sedan product from Ford for what, almost 10-15 years with nothing ever showing up.

 

At least one inside source says new Explorer/Aviator are CD6 and RWD. And another source reported it would be FWD and RWD capable. Believe what you will.

 

It's pretty clear that D3 is a dead man walking. And if CD6 was just a newer CD4, then we would be getting a CD4 Taurus now.

 

CD4 Taurus and Conti were built for China and Conti is a stopgap for NA. CD6 will replace D3/D4 and may replace CD4 as well. Nothing else makes sense.

[silvrsvt]

CD4 Taurus and Conti were built for China and Conti is a stopgap for NA. CD6 will replace D3/D4 and may replace CD4 as well. Nothing else makes sense.

 

The only problem with that is why are you allowing 75-100K of product to walk away from your dealerships by not updating the Taurus? The Conti is going to be lucky to sell 20-25K units a year going by how well the MKS did (not excaty a far comparison I admit) in NA, and I'm under the assumption that its going to be built in China also with the new Taurus...so what is the point again? I don't see a business case for a car that sells 25K, even though it shares a decent amount with the Fusion.

[RichardJensen]

25k all by itself on a 3rd shift at Flat Rock, while you're building ~60k Tauruses at Chicago that make less money per unit than the Explorers you could be building in their place.

[akirby]

They'll either replace it with a cd6 version or a stretched Fusion. No other reason not to offer the cd4 Taurus here.

 

There are also rumors that al Lincolns move to FRAP.

[RichardJensen]

"All Lincolns are going to FRAP"

 

Yes. Because spending hundreds of millions of dollars to move production around will mean *so much* to the customer.

[fuzzymoomoo]

They'll either replace it with a cd6 version or a stretched Fusion. No other reason not to offer the cd4 Taurus here.

 

There are also rumors that al Lincolns move to FRAP.

I saw that too. It was started by a guy who talked to a guy who's third cousin twice removed knows a guy who works in the glass house told him that

 

I'm calling BS on that one. I can't picture a scenario where that makes any kind of sense both financially and logistically

[akirby]

I believe the article that said CD6 would be fwd/rwd/awd capable. Why? Because Audi does it and it makes sense where ford seems to be headed with performance vehicles.

 

I think it will replace D3/4 first and CD4 later.

 

I think it can work for both sedans and utilities IF it's designed that way from the start. I also think there will be slightly different variants for each.

 

I think CD6 came after cd4 conti and Taurus were well underway.

 

I think clearing out MAP is part of a major platform/factory restructuring for cd4/6 and d3/4.

 

It makes some sense to consolidate Lincoln manufacturing - Lincoln exclusive parts, higher quality control, etc. I'm not sure how feasible it is to have 3 different platforms in one plant.

 

Obviously well just have to wait and see.

[akirby]

Btw - I see explorer and aviator going back to rwd Utes allowing for even higher priced performance versions with the 3 row edge filling the void with a 3 row CUV. That's also why I think a stretched fusion could replace the Taurus. More platform sharing.

[RichardJensen]

First of all, the number of shared parts between any Ford product and its Lincoln relative will always or almost always outnumber the parts that all Lincolns would have in common, in terms of dollar cost, in terms of weight, and in terms of shipping expense.

 

If the MKZ and Fusion share several common stampings, why should Ford either purchase two sets of identical dies or stamp parts in one plant and ship them to who-knows-where for assembly on some small volume product.

 

Secondly, if Ford *were* to assemble all of the Lincolns in one location it almost certainly would not be MAP, which has serious issues with its local. You want greater quality control? Yes! Let's move it to a plant with widely reported attendance issues!!

 

Finally, this move would almost certainly cost Ford a billion dollars, and would be paid off by how much ADDITIONAL volume over how many years?

 

Because you can't look at ALL Lincoln volume when you're figuring out the advantage of a move like this. The only way you justify this is by the amount of ADDITIONAL volume that you would gain. And if you upped Lincoln volume by 30,000 units (~30%), over ten years, you're looking at $3,333.33 per car to pay off that massive consolidation project--and that's not counting all of the incremental cost you're adding because you're shipping stamped parts from Ford facilities to your ego-driven Lincoln facility.

Edited August 6, 2015 by RichardJensen

[RichardJensen]

Finally, If you want my guesses as to what's going in MAP:

 

Escape + Transit Connect + hybrids.

 

Ford can probably sell 120k Transit Connects in NAFTA--maybe more. 60k CMax + 60k Escape gives you 240k and a nice two shift plant building a single platform for max. profit.

Edited August 6, 2015 by RichardJensen

[bzcat]

I think the fate of CD4 Taurus in US will be clear after the UAW negotiations are concluded.

 

I sketched a timeline before in another thread... it makes marketing sense for Ford to have Continental be the new kid on the block for a 1 or 1.5 model years before Taurus joins the production line. It's my own speculation, not sourced from my imaginary friend.

 

Late 2015 - Continental product begins at Flat Rock

Early 2016 - Continental launch as 2017 model (2017 model year has been confirmed)

Mid 2016 - Retail D3 Taurus production ends in Chicago (PI continues and the Taurus volume shifts to Explorer export program which will get bigger push in China with new 2.3 EB)

Late 2016 - Production of CD4 Taurus starts at Flat Rock

Early 2017 - CD4 Taurus launch as 2018 model (effectively 2 model years behind China, which will launch in October 2015 as MY2016)

 

Note that this time line above jives with someone's mystery friend's claim that there won't be a Taurus after 2016... as technically, there won't be a 2017 Taurus in the US and the model will skip a model year.

Edited August 6, 2015 by bzcat

[Pioneer]

There are also rumors that al Lincolns move to FRAP.

That's a rumor started by a guy in the employee section. It's a contract year. Wild rumors spreaf through our plants during contact negotiations.

 

And, to the people here that read the employees section, you need to understand that there are a few guys that only come here to stir the pot. I've seen users in the past couple of weeks that only post during contact negotiations. There are also new users that type in the same context, same grammatical and spelling errors, and use the same style of writing as other people. Definitely some double posting going on.

 

Please believe nothing you read there.

[akirby]

I was taking it with a grain of salt for that reason. But Richard ignores one other advantage - freeing up factory space for Fusions, Escapes and Edges.

 

I'm not saying it's a fact or even likely, just a possibility. There are some advantages, but also disadvantages.

[RichardJensen]

But you're not freeing up that space!

 

 

Capacity is capacity. If I have fifteen objects, eight of them green and seven of them red, ten of them cubes and five of them balls, and I have three boxes and each box can only hold five objects, I'm not gaining capacity if I put all of the balls into one box.

[630land]

My bet is Focus is moving to build more SUVs, CUVs, and whatever since gas is cheap, for now.

 

Also, Tauruses are now fleet queens, for cops, rentals, and not too many retail. They'll drag their feet to see if it's even worth bringing out a new one, I think.

 

The CD6 sounds like the "unicorn" GRWD from last decade. If it's unvieled at an Auto Show, I'll believe it.

[akirby]

If I'm building Fusions and MKZs in Hermosillo and MKCs and Escapes in Louisville - and both are at capacity - and you move MKZ and MKC to FRAP then you have more capacity to build Fusions and Escapes.

 

Seems pretty simple to me.

[jpd80]

The 31% YTD sales loss On the Taurus should be a good indication that the car is in serious need of a update/replacement.

A collective cheer will come up when Explorer no longer competes with Taurus for production space,

giving Explorer another 5,000/mth head room would do wonders for inventory and sales.

[RichardJensen]

If I'm building Fusions and MKZs in Hermosillo and MKCs and Escapes in Louisville - and both are at capacity - and you move MKZ and MKC to FRAP then you have more capacity to build Fusions and Escapes.

 

Seems pretty simple to me.

 

So you're saying they should put five of the seven red objects in a box together in order to have more capacity for the green objects elsewhere.

 

Ford is building both MKZs and Fusions in Hermosillo. They only moved Fusions to FRAP. That should tell you all you need to know about the advisability of paying a billion dollars--give or take--to consolidate Lincoln at some putative Lincoln "center of excellence".

[akirby]

Oh good grief - all I said was there are SOME advantages to doing it and that's one of them. I even said there are other disadvantages and those may grossly outweigh the advantages.

 

Stop taking things out of context.