jpd80 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 (edited) The only way we're going to see significant penetration of EVs into the market is via government legislation or an astronomical rise in fuel prices that utterly descimates the economy (like OPEC 73 or 79-80 gas shortages) The only provisioning for energy draw down form the grid is in off peak times when both industrial and residential power draw is at its lowest..... Edited January 21, 2018 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/south-carolina/articles/2018-01-02/s-carolina-utility-urges-energy-conservation-in-cold-snap While many/most (depending one area) people use either wood, oil, or propane to heat their homes there is widespread electric heat still which is high enough in numbers to put a strain on our electric grid in the north east during prolonged cold spells. South Carolina normally sees a low of only about 50 degrees during the winter...they are seeing 20-30 degrees below (with snow to boot!) that and don't have the heating systems to handle those temps. The South has over 50% of homes being heated with electric heat. The North East is only about 15% or so http://www.climatecentral.org/news/your-heating-fuel-depends-on-where-you-live-18084 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 It routinely hits single digits and below freezing in the south (outside Florida but that’s not really the South) including South Carolina. The only difference this year is the prolonged sub freezing temps. Normally it doesn’t stay below freezing for more than 24 hours but this year we had a couple of 2-3 day stretches. Don’t forget electric cars charge overnight when electricity usage is low so the impact isn’t as great as some make it out to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Don’t forget electric cars charge overnight when electricity usage is low so the impact isn’t as great as some make it out to be. For those that heat with electricity (which I would assume many in the south do), their usage is higher at night. But, to add to your statement, I would say most owners plug in as soon as they get home from work, and the car starts charging right away (unless it's a smart charger set to only charge at night). That time of the day is often the time of highest energy usage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sevensecondsuv Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 (edited) During the winter, electricity demand is higher at night than day due to lighting and heating load is higher when the sun is not up. Summer is opposite due to ac demand. The other problem is that while natural gas is the #1 source of heating fuel, it's also currently the fuel of choice for throwing up new electricity generation plants because it's cleaner than coal, cheap at the moment due to fracking, and goes up quick and easy (compared to nuclear or a dam, for example). However it's really a problem during these cold snaps because natural gas gets in short supply due to heating demand, not leaving much for generation. It's actually an infrastructure issue, as the existing pipe lines were never meant to supply generation (gas wasn't widely used for generation until about 10 years ago because gas was magnitudes more expensive than coal until fracking happened). Both the electric grid and natural gas distribution piping network are going to need extensive, substantial, systemic upgrades before we could displace a significant amount of oil as a transportation fuel. Given the lack of state budgets, opposition to taxes, hatred of utility companies, and widespread "not in my backyard" mentality, I just don't see any such upgrades happening anytime soon. Especially since oil is going to be cheap for the foreseeable future. Edited January 22, 2018 by Sevensecondsuv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Both the electric grid and natural gas distribution piping network are going to need extensive, substantial, systemic upgrades before we could displace a significant amount of oil as a transportation fuel. Given the lack of state budgets, opposition to taxes, hatred of utility companies, and widespread "not in my backyard" mentality, I just don't see any such upgrades happening anytime soon. Especially since oil is going to be cheap for the foreseeable future. Is this going to be the same problems faced with autonomous cars too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 When I say night I mean overnight - midnight to 6 am. Not evening. There are no appliances or lighting overnight and house temps are normally lower at night so the electrical load is much lower. Same for summer. Peak use is during the day or evening in both cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sevensecondsuv Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 When I say night I mean overnight - midnight to 6 am. Not evening. There are no appliances or lighting overnight and house temps are normally lower at night so the electrical load is much lower. Same for summer. Peak use is during the day or evening in both cases. That's generally true when it's fairly warm (like now). But if you look when is cold, it'll peak around 2-4 am. Here's the daily pjm (largest grid operator east of the Mississippi) demand forecast curve: http://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Here's the daily pjm (largest grid operator east of the Mississippi) demand forecast curve: http://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations.aspx neat link! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kyle Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 $11 billion is a lot of crap spinning. I was thinking the same thing-this is serious money and not just a spin on facts-they think this is where the world is headed in the next 4 years as people buy 800,000 F150's today-WTF. If you are a Ford dealer you might want to get out now. Would be interesting how much bluesky there is in a Ford dealer today? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Punxsutawney Phil channels Rainier Wolfcastle: "My eyes, the goggles they do nothing...." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I was thinking the same thing-this is serious money and not just a spin on facts-they think this is where the world is headed in the next 4 years as people buy 800,000 F150's today-WTF. If you are a Ford dealer you might want to get out now. Would be interesting how much bluesky there is in a Ford dealer today? In all seriousness, what else can be done to the F-150 going forward? ICE is more or less maxed out in performance/MPGs. There is no easy/cheap improvements aka low hanging fruit that can be had. 11 Billion is nothing...a clean sheet design for a car is an easy $2 billion, more if you develop a new power pack (engine/transmission) The market is changing-doing the same thing they've been doing for the past 20 years isn't going to ensure survival for the next 20 years. All this money is being spent to for the future...8-10 years down the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sevensecondsuv Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 In all seriousness, what else can be done to the F-150 going forward? ICE is more or less maxed out in performance/MPGs. There is no easy/cheap improvements aka low hanging fruit that can be had. Keep in mind people have been saying that about the ICE for at least the last 20 years. But then look at power/efficiency today vs just 10 years ago, let alone 20 years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sevensecondsuv Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Also, what can be done with f-150 is figure out how to keep the power and efficiency while getting the price lower and at the same time maintaining profit margins. Ever more power, efficiency, size, bells, and whistles is great, but I'd like to see them focus on cost of ownership for a while. The biggest part of that is purchase price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) Ford is not interested in lowering the price of F150, they've spent the best part of the last ten years converting everyone from cheap trucks to paying on average $44K for one...if you're lucky. I wish we could have cheaper trucks but I guess that's where Ranger comes in.... Edited January 23, 2018 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Also, what can be done with f-150 is figure out how to keep the power and efficiency while getting the price lower and at the same time maintaining profit margins. Ever more power, efficiency, size, bells, and whistles is great, but I'd like to see them focus on cost of ownership for a while. The biggest part of that is purchase price. Newsflash: New car prices are not coming down. As jpd80 mentioned, Ford has worked hard to increase the ATP for F150 (due to new equipment and decreasing rebates), and they aren't going to change that without being forced to. Also newsflash: Based on inflation and enhancement to safety, fuel economy, comfort, equipment, etc., new car prices aren't drastically out of line with where they were 20, 30 years ago. Buy stripper vehicles and you will see the lower prices. Base models have as much if not more equipment than loaded models from 30 years ago. But sure, if you want to load it up with fancy leather, adaptive cruise, electronic dual-zone automatic temperature control, 8 inch screen, and 7 cameras, sure, they are expensive! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 They're anticipating a big jump in hybrid and bev sales as battery prices come down and capacity goes up. I think they're overestimating but even if it's half of what they say it's a significant number and they do need to be ready and ahead of the curve for a change. To me the key isn't how many vehicles - you can put different tophats on the same platform pretty cheap - it's how many platforms they're creating or updating. If C3 and CD6 are being built with BEVs and hybrids in mind and they're adding hybrids to Mustang and F150 then that covers the vast majority of normal production vehicles. So you're developing a new BEV only platform that can support multiple models. If the market stays as is they just build more hybrids. If it jumps more quickly to BEVs they can add more BEV models and do some BEV versions of the hybrid models. I still don't see this as a drastic change from what they were already working on except they may need to divert a bit more cash to speed up the new platforms in the short term. Cancel Fiesta, C Max and Taurus. Import Focus until the new plant/platform is ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blksn8k2 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Punxsutawney Phil channels Rainier Wolfcastle: "My eyes, the goggles they do nothing...." Hey now. Gobbler's Knob is less than 15 miles from my house....and BTW, Punxsy Phil lives in a heated room in the public library. Hybrids make way more sense than full plug-in electrics in the short term. Will be decades before most of North America is ready for anything more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sevensecondsuv Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Newsflash: New car prices are not coming down. As jpd80 mentioned, Ford has worked hard to increase the ATP for F150 (due to new equipment and decreasing rebates), and they aren't going to change that without being forced to. Also newsflash: Based on inflation and enhancement to safety, fuel economy, comfort, equipment, etc., new car prices aren't drastically out of line with where they were 20, 30 years ago. Buy stripper vehicles and you will see the lower prices. Base models have as much if not more equipment than loaded models from 30 years ago. But sure, if you want to load it up with fancy leather, adaptive cruise, electronic dual-zone automatic temperature control, 8 inch screen, and 7 cameras, sure, they are expensive! I think you guys missed my point. I wasn't claiming they should de-content F150 into a stripper work truck. What I meant was that instead of using advances in engineering and manufacturing to further increase power and features (400 HP is already overkill for a half ton), they should turn their attention to maintaining the current levels of power, size, and features while lowering the cost of building these things. That would translate to increased profit and/or increased market share if they can decrease the price relative to the competition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I think you guys missed my point. I wasn't claiming they should de-content F150 into a stripper work truck. What I meant was that instead of using advances in engineering and manufacturing to further increase power and features (400 HP is already overkill for a half ton), they should turn their attention to maintaining the current levels of power, size, and features while lowering the cost of building these things. That would translate to increased profit and/or increased market share if they can decrease the price relative to the competition. Agreed, but they already put a lot of effort into reducing the cost because it increases profits and allows them to underprice the competition if necessary. Where they could be putting a lot more effort which would also reduce costs in the long run and be better for business overall is better quality control all the way from engineering to how the parts go together to the suppliers. Stop squeezing the last nickel out of your suppliers and demand better quality. And stop blaming the factory for assembly errors because you didn't design it the right way to begin with (right Fuzzy?). First gen Fusion was bulletproof but when they moved to the Euro based CD4 platform it went to hell in a handbasket and I think we're seeing the same thing with Edge, Continental and other CD4 vehicles. I could change the cabin filter on the old Fusion in 2 minutes with no tools. My 2nd gen Fusion takes 15 minutes, 4 bolts and 2 screws. And hope you don't break something in the process. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I think you guys missed my point. I wasn't claiming they should de-content F150 into a stripper work truck. What I meant was that instead of using advances in engineering and manufacturing to further increase power and features (400 HP is already overkill for a half ton), they should turn their attention to maintaining the current levels of power, size, and features while lowering the cost of building these things. That would translate to increased profit and/or increased market share if they can decrease the price relative to the competition. Yes, I think that is a big part of what Hackett is supposed to be doing. Agreed, but they already put a lot of effort into reducing the cost because it increases profits and allows them to underprice the competition if necessary. Where they could be putting a lot more effort which would also reduce costs in the long run and be better for business overall is better quality control all the way from engineering to how the parts go together to the suppliers. Stop squeezing the last nickel out of your suppliers and demand better quality. And stop blaming the factory for assembly errors because you didn't design it the right way to begin with (right Fuzzy?). First gen Fusion was bulletproof but when they moved to the Euro based CD4 platform it went to hell in a handbasket and I think we're seeing the same thing with Edge, Continental and other CD4 vehicles. I could change the cabin filter on the old Fusion in 2 minutes with no tools. My 2nd gen Fusion takes 15 minutes, 4 bolts and 2 screws. And hope you don't break something in the process. But mostly this^^^^ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 First gen Fusion was bulletproof but when they moved to the Euro based CD4 platform it went to hell in a handbasket and I think we're seeing the same thing with Edge, Continental and other CD4 vehicles. I could change the cabin filter on the old Fusion in 2 minutes with no tools. My 2nd gen Fusion takes 15 minutes, 4 bolts and 2 screws. And hope you don't break something in the process. So your saying Japanese sourced engineering is better then European? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I’m sure that played a part but I think Dearborn had a big hand in the 1st gen Fusion even though it was on a Mazda platform. CD4 is just a mess, starting with the headlight snafu on the 2013 Fusion launch that delayed vehicles for 2-3 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve557 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 During the winter, electricity demand is higher at night than day due to lighting and heating load is higher when the sun is not up. Summer is opposite due to ac demand. The other problem is that while natural gas is the #1 source of heating fuel, it's also currently the fuel of choice for throwing up new electricity generation plants because it's cleaner than coal, cheap at the moment due to fracking, and goes up quick and easy (compared to nuclear or a dam, for example). However it's really a problem during these cold snaps because natural gas gets in short supply due to heating demand, not leaving much for generation. It's actually an infrastructure issue, as the existing pipe lines were never meant to supply generation (gas wasn't widely used for generation until about 10 years ago because gas was magnitudes more expensive than coal until fracking happened). Both the electric grid and natural gas distribution piping network are going to need extensive, substantial, systemic upgrades before we could displace a significant amount of oil as a transportation fuel. Given the lack of state budgets, opposition to taxes, hatred of utility companies, and widespread "not in my backyard" mentality, I just don't see any such upgrades happening anytime soon. Especially since oil is going to be cheap for the foreseeable future. Recently during the North East cold spell due to most of the gas being take up for heating people's houses the plants up here in Mass/CT had to switch to burning oil/coal for power generation. Nevermind what happens if you lose power for a few days during/after a good storm and you are stuck with no car if electric unless you happen to have a generator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Recently during the North East cold spell due to most of the gas being take up for heating people's houses the plants up here in Mass/CT had to switch to burning oil/coal for power generation. Nevermind what happens if you lose power for a few days during/after a good storm and you are stuck with no car if electric unless you happen to have a generator. This is probably the best argument yet for a plug in hybrid over a full BEV. Although even in a hurricane most places get power within a week and during that time there isn’t much need to go anywhere anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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