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Apple co-founder: 'I've really given up' on Level 5

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https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/apple-co-founder-ive-really-given-level-5

 

Like we've been saying:
 

Quote

 


"I stepped way back [on] this idea of Level 5. I've really given up," Wozniak said during the J.D. Power Auto Revolution conference in Las Vegas last week.

"I don't even know if that will happen in my lifetime."

Autonomous vehicles would fare better, he said, "if we were to modify roads and have certain sections that are well mapped and kept clean of refuse, and nothing unusual happens and there's no road work."
 

 

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This sums it up nicely.

 

All of the proposed safety benefits can be implemented with drivers in the vehicle, so throw the safety argument out the window.

 

Quote
BecausePhilChow  14 hours ago edited

i wholeheartedly concur with Woz assessment. I spent 9 months in a self-driving pilot in my city and my summary is this: It took about 5 years to automate about 85% of the use-cases. It will take another 10 years to handle the next 10%. It will take about 50 years to handle next 3%. Just take this example that i personally had an automated car drive through. Car entered a neighborhood where a 10k race was going through. A traffic cop was directing traffic, letting cars get through holes created by groups of runners that were far enough apart. As soon as the car approached, it immediately went into manual mode. As Woz astutely pointed out.. a car can't say, 'i haven't seen this before, let me figure it out.' its only as smart enough to figure out what was programmed into it. So in this situation, the car has to know 1) this situation calls for it to suspend what it knows about obeying normal traffic laws 2) it needs to know that the person in the road is not a pedestrian, but an authority figure that needs to be obeyed above and beyond the normal traffic rules. 3) it then needs to understand that person's hand gestures and what they mean, which can differ across cop vs cop (is there a codified set of rules of hand signals to direct a car through a crowd of runners?). This is just _one_ scenario_. Most automated cars currently are told to go into manual mode as soon as they detect emergency vehicles because the situation is soo unpredictable. Also, most automated cars currently go into manual mode during rain, snow, and dust storms as their LIDARs go bezerk when elements affect their ability to process light properly, eliminating their long-range detection abilities. This is that remaining 2% of use-cases that will be the "not-in-my-lifetime" that Woz was talking about. This 2% is the most difficult to solve.. and not the other 98%. This 2% is what make human drivers with brains that can process new information in real-time and adjust on the fly so much superior to computers. As long as this 2% exists, i will never take my attention off the wheel for even a split second.

 

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There is a reason that fully autonomous aircraft already exist and fully autonomous cars do not.  Even though aircraft occupy 3D space and can move in all directions, the controlled nature and sparsity simplifies the problem allowing fully autonomous operation.  There are no random people doing random stupid things hiding around the corner ready to pull out in front of you.  Yes you have birds and other aircraft, but detection is much higher leading to longer reactionary periods.  Automobile traffic is a much more complex problem.

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Ehh.  People who predict future tech are always wrong.  Just a matter of computation.  When I was a young man, the Cray was a liquid cooled multi million dollar computer the size of a small car and had a 360kW power draw.  Now it costs a few hundred bucks and you carry it around with you in your pocket and it runs for hours on a 2,700mAh battery.

 

25 years is an eternity in tech years.

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Steve Wozniak is a genius for inventing the Apple I computer over 40 years ago. But today, what Wozniak thinks about SAE Level 5 autonomous vehicles doesn't matter. He is not directly involved with designing, engineering, and testing them.

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23 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Steve Wozniak is a genius for inventing the Apple I computer over 40 years ago. But today, what Wozniak thinks about SAE Level 5 autonomous vehicles doesn't matter. He is not directly involved with designing, engineering, and testing them.


it matters because he’s a really smart software engineer who understands the unbelievable complexity of the real world and the limitations of technology.  Did you even read the article and the quote from the guy who worked on a pilot project?  It’s exactly what all us IT professionals have been saying for the last few years.
 

It’s just like the young programmers who finish their 1st program in a day and think they’re done.  And then they have to go back and spend a month adding all the error handling and border cases.  

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2 minutes ago, akirby said:


it matters because he’s a really smart software engineer who understands the unbelievable complexity of the real world and the limitations of technology.  Did you even read the article and the quote from the guy who worked on a pilot project?  It’s exactly what all us IT professionals have been saying for the last few years.
 

It’s just like the young programmers who finish their 1st program in a day and think they’re done.  And then they have to go back and spend a month adding all the error handling and border cases.  

 

Exactly!  We've been saying this for years, but nobody will believe us.  A super-smart, well-known, successful software engineer says it, and nobody believes him either.

 

Autonomous cars are nothing but software (with a little hardware thrown in for sensors).  Why on earth won't people believe software engineers who have been building software for years when they say it just won't work.  Your quote in the second post is spot-on and what we've been saying all along.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

it matters because he’s a really smart software engineer who understands the unbelievable complexity of the real world and the limitations of technology.

 

Woz is really smart for sure, a genius in fact. But Woz does not currently have a professional role as an engineer or scientist however. And he does not have much if any experience working on autonomous vehicle technologies. His current roles are mainly philanthropy and public speaking. What Woz says about Level 5 AVs is the opinion of one person, no more, no less. It doesn't matter to the people who are actually working on AV engineering and design. 

 

If Woz' prediction that Level 5 autonomous vehicles won't come to fruition in his lifetime is indeed accurate (he's almost 70 years old now, so how many years does he have left in this world? 10? 15?), it will most likely be due to regulatory and legal issues. Still a lot of stuff to work out in those areas.

Edited by rperez817

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7 hours ago, rperez817 said:

If Woz' prediction that Level 5 autonomous vehicles won't come to fruition in his lifetime is indeed accurate (he's almost 70 years old now, so how many years does he have left in this world? 10? 15?), it will most likely be due to regulatory and legal issues. Still a lot of stuff to work out in those areas.

 

The thing is that level 5 isn't going to happen any time soon in most places in the next 10-15 years-maybe 20 years. 

 

Electrification will happen faster then level 5 does. 

 

The biggest issue is creating a program that is basically at AI levels to decide how to handle the unexpected-from a dead deer in the road to a multicar pileup in front of it and having something like Siri (based in the cloud) isn't going to cut it-the latency is too much and the car will just plow into whatever is in front of it. Your talking about a serious increase in computing power in a car that leads to other issues also. 

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11 hours ago, novanglus said:

Ehh.  People who predict future tech are always wrong.  Just a matter of computation.  When I was a young man, the Cray was a liquid cooled multi million dollar computer the size of a small car and had a 360kW power draw.  Now it costs a few hundred bucks and you carry it around with you in your pocket and it runs for hours on a 2,700mAh battery.

 

25 years is an eternity in tech years.

 

But at the same time just look at the past 5-10 years, that device in your pocket has become a commodity that doesn't require you to replace it every two years either, like it did before. Cell Phone makers add the lastest and greatest gimmick to it-but having three camera lenses vs two on an iPhone for example, isn't going to stop you from going on Facebook, taking photos, checking your email, etc with a device that is 4 years old. 

 

I've been around IT and tech for over 30 years...I remember the days in the late 1990s when you had to upgrade your PC every 18 months or so if you wanted to play the latest and greatest games. Now a high end build will last you about 5 years, if not longer, depending on what you use it for.  Video cards same thing-we are at the point that the tech is mature enough that huge gains in performance aren't low lying fruit anymore.

 

I'm still trying to figure out what is going to be the next "big" thing that isn't just hype from a company trying to inflate their stock prices. 5G is just a better integration of IP networks, nothing earth shattering-just a performance improvement of current Cell Phone networks and better integration with wired networks. 

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8 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Woz is really smart for sure, a genius in fact. But Woz does not currently have a professional role as an engineer or scientist however. And he does not have much if any experience working on autonomous vehicle technologies. His current roles are mainly philanthropy and public speaking. What Woz says about Level 5 AVs is the opinion of one person, no more, no less. It doesn't matter to the people who are actually working on AV engineering and design. 

 

If Woz' prediction that Level 5 autonomous vehicles won't come to fruition in his lifetime is indeed accurate (he's almost 70 years old now, so how many years does he have left in this world? 10? 15?), it will most likely be due to regulatory and legal issues. Still a lot of stuff to work out in those areas.


So what about the quote from the guy who WAS working on it?

 

Youre ignoring the truth because you don’t like it.

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11 hours ago, novanglus said:

Ehh.  People who predict future tech are always wrong.  Just a matter of computation.  When I was a young man, the Cray was a liquid cooled multi million dollar computer the size of a small car and had a 360kW power draw.  Now it costs a few hundred bucks and you carry it around with you in your pocket and it runs for hours on a 2,700mAh battery.

 

25 years is an eternity in tech years.

 

But at the same time just look at the past 5-10 years, that device in your pocket has become a commodity that doesn't require you to replace it every two years either, like it did before. Cell Phone makers add the lastest and greatest gimmick to it-but having three camera lenses vs two on an iPhone for example, isn't going to stop you from going on Facebook, taking photos, checking your email, etc with a device that is 4 years old. 

 

I've been around IT and tech for over 30 years...I remember the days in the late 1990s when you had to upgrade your PC every 18 months or so if you wanted to play the latest and greatest games. Now a high end build will last you about 5 years, if not longer, depending on what you use it for.  Video cards same thing-we are at the point that the tech is mature enough that huge gains in performance aren't low lying fruit anymore.

 

I'm still trying to figure out what is going to be the next "big" thing that isn't just hype from a company trying to inflate their stock prices. 5G is just a better integration of IP networks, nothing earth shattering-just a performance improvement of current Cell Phone networks and better integration with wired networks. 

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8 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Woz is really smart for sure, a genius in fact. But Woz does not currently have a professional role as an engineer or scientist however. And he does not have much if any experience working on autonomous vehicle technologies. His current roles are mainly philanthropy and public speaking. What Woz says about Level 5 AVs is the opinion of one person, no more, no less. It doesn't matter to the people who are actually working on AV engineering and design. 

 

If Woz' prediction that Level 5 autonomous vehicles won't come to fruition in his lifetime is indeed accurate (he's almost 70 years old now, so how many years does he have left in this world? 10? 15?), it will most likely be due to regulatory and legal issues. Still a lot of stuff to work out in those areas.


So what about the quote from the guy who WAS working on it?

 

You’re ignoring the truth because you don’t like it.

 

We’ll see AVs but only in controlled environments.  And most of the features can still be used as driver aids so it won’t be wasted.

Edited by akirby

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12 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

But at the same time just look at the past 5-10 years, that device in your pocket has become a commodity that doesn't require you to replace it every two years either, like it did before. Cell Phone makers add the lastest and greatest gimmick to it-but having three camera lenses vs two on an iPhone for example, isn't going to stop you from going on Facebook, taking photos, checking your email, etc with a device that is 4 years old. 

 

I've been around IT and tech for over 30 years...I remember the days in the late 1990s when you had to upgrade your PC every 18 months or so if you wanted to play the latest and greatest games. Now a high end build will last you about 5 years, if not longer, depending on what you use it for.  Video cards same thing-we are at the point that the tech is mature enough that huge gains in performance aren't low lying fruit anymore.

 

I'm still trying to figure out what is going to be the next "big" thing that isn't just hype from a company trying to inflate their stock prices. 5G is just a better integration of IP networks, nothing earth shattering-just a performance improvement of current Cell Phone networks and better integration with wired networks. 


 

...but that is an issue about what to do with the extra power and efficiency.  My Garmin watch is an unbelievably powerful computer on my wrist.  That wasn’t possible 5 years ago.  And 10 years from now, we don’t know how that extra power, efficiency, and compactness will be applied by people with bigger ideas.  Garmin just rolled out a new autolander for general aviation airplanes. Yes, that is an easier problem to solve than driving, but it is a new lifesaving advancement in tech.  We will see more.

 

Thats what I mean about predicting the future of tech.  If one man was so knowledgeable he could tell you what can or can’t work, he’d be the most sought after guy on the planet.  Woz, peace be upon him, is not that man.  You can’t know the depth of all problems and their potential solutions.

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14 hours ago, akirby said:

You’re ignoring the truth because you don’t like it.

 

No sir. The truth is summed up nicely by novanglus. I agree with what novanglus said. It's not a matter of like or dislike.

 

Quote

"If one man was so knowledgeable he could tell you what can or can’t work, he’d be the most sought after guy on the planet.  Woz, peace be upon him, is not that man.  You can’t know the depth of all problems and their potential solutions."

 

No human being can predict with absolute certainty when Level 5 autonomous vehicles will be deployed en masse, or what specific AV systems and technologies being developed now will win out in the future. Not Woz, not even the greatest minds in the world of AV research today like Red Whittaker and Sebastian Thrun.

Edited by rperez817

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49 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

No sir. The truth is summed up nicely by novanglus. I agree with what novanglus said. It's not a matter of like or dislike.

 

 

No human being can predict with absolute certainty when Level 5 autonomous vehicles will be deployed en masse, or what specific AV systems and technologies being developed now will win out in the future. Not Woz, not even the greatest minds in the world of AV research today like Red Whittaker and Sebastian Thrun.

 

Do you believe that global warming / climate change is caused by man?  Do you believe that we can do much to really stop it?

 

If yes, then you are saying that scientist believe we can anticipate, predict, and change what the world (which we have nearly zero control over) is going to do, but that scientists cannot anticipate and predict what man (which we have 100% control over) is going to be able to do.

 

You can't have it both ways unless you are believing in what you like and not believing in what you don't like.

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Self-driving technology is a necessity in our society as it would reduce the number of driving related fatalities each year.


This is a true statement, but it doesn’t mean we need driverless cars.  The technology will save just as many lives as a driver assist feature.

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As a matter of fact, I’d say a current vehicle with lane keep and lane centering and AEB is just as safe as an AV.

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Driverless tech would be great for highways.. 3 hour road trips etc.  But navigating the pitch black country roads, S curves that come up very quickly (the steering cant keep up with such quick changes yet), the lack of white lines on the outer edge of the road..  I just would never trust it.  But to travel 100 miles to visit family out of state where it is all highway, it would be cool to not have to have the stress of long road trips.

 

I very much enjoy driving and would not want a full 100% driverless vehicle but wouldn't mind the break here and there.

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On 10/30/2019 at 10:20 PM, akirby said:

 

It’s just like the young programmers who finish their 1st program in a day and think they’re done.  And then they have to go back and spend a month adding all the error handling and border cases.  

Really, how much error checking is needed to print "Hello world"?

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3 hours ago, akirby said:

I’d say a current vehicle with lane keep and lane centering and AEB is just as safe as an AV.

 

With AVs, Rand Institute said that safety improvements for an entire fleet of vehicles can be realized through the experience of driving and applying machine learning techniques. And those improvements can be made continuously, using the driving experience of individual AVs to keep advancing the state of the art in AV safety.

 

When a human driver makes a mistake on the road (even when driving a vehicle with AEB, LKAS, & LC), typically only that person directly learns from the incident to hopefully improve his or her driving habits.

 

More research is needed on this subject of AV safety for sure. And that requires a lot more real world testing of AVs.

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There isn’t anything that needs to be learned.  Keep the vehicle in the lane and stop if something is in front of you.

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