Ford Q1/March 2024 Sales Results

[tbone]

Ford sure is looking at a limited lineup of vehicles for sale soon.  Looks like they are going back to you can have any color you want as long as it’s black, metaphorically speaking anyway.

[Andrew L]

Any reason as to why the Navigator had such a drop this past month?  Are there production issues?  Grand Wagoneer has passed it though that may have happened earlier not sure but either way Escalade is still on top and Grand Wagoneer is now 2nd place.

[Chrisgb]

On 4/4/2024 at 6:45 AM, akirby said:

The main reason is folks are buying them before they’re gone.  This is the last month unless something changes.

"While They Last" Is a classic tag to increase sales of discontinued products of any kind.

[rmc523]

23 hours ago, Andrew L said:

 

My G/Fs father got one last year he was waiting forever for it was on preorder for a long time.  He paid I want to say close to 72k for it, it's loaded to the gills.  Bright blue, blue leather, 4 door, removable top, big chunky tires.  He's trying to sell it now.  He's a Ford guy through and through but he said he misses having a sporty sedan or coupe, he also said he really didn't think it through since they have an Explorer already they have no need for 2 SUVs.  He has had multiple offers from dealers but all low balling him pretty hard.  He has it listed I think on Autotrader now for about 52k and no bites only low balls.  He said if he doesn't sell it soon he will just keep it.  He doesn't hate it at all he just misses having something sporty. 

 

I get it.  I went from a Flex+Mustang to Bronco - I really had fun with my Mustang, but wanted more practicality back.  Sometimes I wish I still had my Mustang, but it wasn't paid off and didn't make sense to have 2 payments.

 

If I had a crystal ball, I'd have ordered a second one and sold it when prices were crazy, and then kept mine.

 

20 hours ago, akirby said:

They may have good volume but profit margins are probably lower than they want.  Some of that is due to the competition, some due to higher costs.  But they’re not just killing vehicles - they’re diverting those resources to new vehicles that either promise higher margins or are strategically more important to the company.

 

E.g. if they had kept Focus they would have had to build a new factory and hire dozens if not hundreds more people and there is no way Focus would generate enough profit to cover that added cost.  So they replaced it with Bronco and Ranger. 

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but the should've built that plant that Fields started.

[rmc523]

5 hours ago, Andrew L said:

Any reason as to why the Navigator had such a drop this past month?  Are there production issues?  Grand Wagoneer has passed it though that may have happened earlier not sure but either way Escalade is still on top and Grand Wagoneer is now 2nd place.

 

Production looks consistent for the last few months, though inventory is lower than the rest of the Lincoln models.

 

Maybe it's just getting long in the tooth for buyers?

[92LX302]

On 4/3/2024 at 4:39 PM, rmc523 said:

 

Not even so much the options, but the extreme increases vs. debut pricing just a couple of years ago, as I've mentioned before.

The lease on my 2021 Badlands High Pkg. 4 doors is up next fall. 

 

 

 

I looked into ordering the same one but as a 2 doors (some minor change since they merged the High/Lux package)... $74k CAD vs $62k CAD for my 2021...

 

 

 

That's a lot of money for a wireless cellphone charger, heated steering and a redesigned dash pad. 

[silvrsvt]

12 hours ago, 92LX302 said:

The lease on my 2021 Badlands High Pkg. 4 doors is up next fall. 

I looked into ordering the same one but as a 2 doors (some minor change since they merged the High/Lux package)... $74k CAD vs $62k CAD for my 2021...

That's a lot of money for a wireless cellphone charger, heated steering and a redesigned dash pad. 

 

In all seriousness, I really wonder what Ford's plans are long term with the Bronco pricing-they seem to have based the price increases on the ADMs that where on them the first few years and has dropped since production has increased. Are they still planning on a price hike when a refresh comes about? Will demand keep softening that incentives are the norm, like they are on the Wrangler (a friend of mine got a 4XE for almost 20K off after rebates/incentives a couple months ago) currently?

[Gurgeh]

12 hours ago, 92LX302 said:

The lease on my 2021 Badlands High Pkg. 4 doors is up next fall. 

 

I looked into ordering the same one but as a 2 doors (some minor change since they merged the High/Lux package)... $74k CAD vs $62k CAD for my 2021...

 

That's a lot of money for a wireless cellphone charger, heated steering and a redesigned dash pad. 

The sad thing is that since 2020 inflation in the United States has gone up 20% overall. As shocking as the 11% increase in MSRP in just the last few years, it is actually running below overall inflation in the economy. https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/766#:~:text=Prices have grown by 20,energy prices the most volatile&text=Prices based on CPI-U.

Edited April 17 by Gurgeh

[ice-capades]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

In all seriousness, I really wonder what Ford's plans are long term with the Bronco pricing-they seem to have based the price increases on the ADMs that where on them the first few years and has dropped since production has increased. Are they still planning on a price hike when a refresh comes about? Will demand keep softening that incentives are the norm, like they are on the Wrangler (a friend of mine got a 4XE for almost 20K off after rebates/incentives a couple months ago) currently?

 

After the impact of the pandemic, we kept hearing that Ford was "right sizing" its inventory, moving to a more retail order focused system, etc. They had the opportunity to balance inventory vs. demand with the benefit to reduce the decades long dependence on incentives in order to move product. Now they've gone back to ramping up production, increasing inventory and resumed using incentives to varying degrees. In addition, there are no longer "entry models" with the exception of Maverick which easily exceeds $30,000. I'm not suggesting the return of coupes or sedans as has been argued so often. However, base models have been eliminated forcing customers into higher priced trims. Along with the substantial price increases, Ford and its competitors have priced themselves out of the market and forcing customers to buy pre-owned vehicles.

 

Short term thinking doesn't solve long term issues. 

[rmc523]

42 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

In all seriousness, I really wonder what Ford's plans are long term with the Bronco pricing-they seem to have based the price increases on the ADMs that where on them the first few years and has dropped since production has increased. Are they still planning on a price hike when a refresh comes about? Will demand keep softening that incentives are the norm, like they are on the Wrangler (a friend of mine got a 4XE for almost 20K off after rebates/incentives a couple months ago) currently?

 

They need to lower prices like they've done on Mach E and Lightning.  Somewhere in between release pricing and what they have now.

[Andrew L]

57 minutes ago, ice-capades said:

 

After the impact of the pandemic, we kept hearing that Ford was "right sizing" its inventory, moving to a more retail order focused system, etc. They had the opportunity to balance inventory vs. demand with the benefit to reduce the decades long dependence on incentives in order to move product. Now they've gone back to ramping up production, increasing inventory and resumed using incentives to varying degrees. In addition, there are no longer "entry models" with the exception of Maverick which easily exceeds $30,000. I'm not suggesting the return of coupes or sedans as has been argued so often. However, base models have been eliminated forcing customers into higher priced trims. Along with the substantial price increases, Ford and its competitors have priced themselves out of the market and forcing customers to buy pre-owned vehicles.

 

Short term thinking doesn't solve long term issues. 

 

I agree.  Right along the lines with what I was saying in the other thread that Ford needs to stop acting like they are a premium brand and offer more base models and lower pricing.  

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Andrew L said:

I agree.  Right along the lines with what I was saying in the other thread that Ford needs to stop acting like they are a premium brand and offer more base models and lower pricing.  

 

Inflation is thing-Just 20 years ago 30K plus was considered luxury brand pricing. Now that is less then the average price of a new car in the US ($47,936 as of 2023)

EVERYTHING is more expensive these days and expect it to stay that way for a long time. 

[akirby]

Did consumers really buy a lot of base models or were they mostly just for government and rental fleet sales and for advertising purposes?  I think most buyers would opt for the next higher trim which is usually just a couple thousand more (sometimes less).

[ice-capades]

21 minutes ago, akirby said:

Did consumers really buy a lot of base models or were they mostly just for government and rental fleet sales and for advertising purposes?  I think most buyers would opt for the next higher trim which is usually just a couple thousand more (sometimes less).

 

It's not a matter of volume with the base models. The biggest value with the base models is for the marketing value to help drive showroom traffic and to offer customers a lower priced, more affordable vehicle which also helps lower the monthly payment where needed.  

[tbone]

6 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

In all seriousness, I really wonder what Ford's plans are long term with the Bronco pricing-they seem to have based the price increases on the ADMs that where on them the first few years and has dropped since production has increased. Are they still planning on a price hike when a refresh comes about? Will demand keep softening that incentives are the norm, like they are on the Wrangler (a friend of mine got a 4XE for almost 20K off after rebates/incentives a couple months ago) currently?

I think Ford has jumped the shark on Bronco pricing.  Broncos are now being stocked on the lots around me, whereas this was never the case before, and you can buy them with a hefty discount.  I’ve even seen bronco Raptors being advertised for $5000 off.
 

They affectively drove me out of the market based on value I see in the vehicle.  
 

I think the next few months worth of sales will give us an idea on the impact of Bronco pricing.

[silvrsvt]

2 minutes ago, tbone said:

I think Ford has jumped the shark on Bronco pricing.  Broncos are now being stocked on the lots around me, whereas this was never the case before, and you can buy them with a hefty discount.  I’ve even seen bronco Raptors being advertised for $5000 off.
 

They affectively drove me out of the market based on value I see in the vehicle.  
 

I think the next few months worth of sales will give us an idea on the impact of Bronco pricing.

 

They dropped the price on the Bronco Sport this year...its roughly only a $500 difference between it and the new Escape on the low end. 

[Andrew L]

55 minutes ago, ice-capades said:

 

It's not a matter of volume with the base models. The biggest value with the base models is for the marketing value to help drive showroom traffic and to offer customers a lower priced, more affordable vehicle which also helps lower the monthly payment where needed.  

 

It also helps those who might be buying their first new car or something that can fit their budget.  I get inflation is a huge part of the blame but there are a lot of folks out there who cannot afford 400-450 a month payments on a new car who would prefer something new even if it is base trim.  Then there are some that just love the look of a base model think of the Bronco when it launched, I know of a few who loved the steelies on them.

[rmc523]

40 minutes ago, tbone said:

I think Ford has jumped the shark on Bronco pricing.  Broncos are now being stocked on the lots around me, whereas this was never the case before, and you can buy them with a hefty discount.  I’ve even seen bronco Raptors being advertised for $5000 off.
 

They affectively drove me out of the market based on value I see in the vehicle.  
 

I think the next few months worth of sales will give us an idea on the impact of Bronco pricing.

 

Bronco sales are down 25.79% for the year through March.

Edited April 17 by rmc523

[tbone]

10 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

Bronco sales are down 25.79% for the year through March.

Obviously, that’s a pretty substantial number, but I would like to see a few more months before I passed final judgment. Clearly something is up though.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, ice-capades said:

 

It's not a matter of volume with the base models. The biggest value with the base models is for the marketing value to help drive showroom traffic and to offer customers a lower priced, more affordable vehicle which also helps lower the monthly payment where needed.  

Thats what I meant by advertising.  If it’s really driving sales especially higher priced vehicles then I get that, but I think most people would rather just have a cheaper model decently equipped than a more expensive base model.

 

Plus the ones I remember was only a $1000-$1500 difference.  Not $4K.

[rmc523]

34 minutes ago, tbone said:

Obviously, that’s a pretty substantial number, but I would like to see a few more months before I passed final judgment. Clearly something is up though.

 

In 2023, there was a dip to just 82 units in October that could theoretically have caused a ripple in sales in Q1, but production has been around 12k per month for Jan/Feb, and almost 10k for March this year, so sales should have balanced out by now, if it was from the October production issue.

And while anecdotal, I too will echo sentiments that dealers now have inventory of Broncos - regular and Raptor - on the lot (though likely still with addendums, which could also be why they're not moving).

 

 

 

 

I'd agree that we should wait and see the end of year results before saying the roof is falling, but I really think they need to look at pricing.

Edited April 17 by rmc523

[Andrew L]

2 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

In 2023, there was a dip to just 82 units in October that could theoretically have caused a ripple in sales in Q1, but production has been around 12k per month for Jan/Feb, and almost 10k for March this year, so sales should have balanced out by now, if it was from the October production issue.

And while anecdotal, I too will echo sentiments that dealers now have inventory of Broncos - regular and Raptor - on the lot (though likely still with addendums, which could also be why they're not moving).

 

 

 

 

I'd agree that we should wait and see the end of year results before saying the roof is falling, but I really think they need to look at pricing.

 

I appreciate you keeping those spreadsheets going with the sales numbers.  I did it for quite a while on GMI but it's tedious especially with GM switching to quarterly.  

[rmc523]

3 minutes ago, Andrew L said:

 

I appreciate you keeping those spreadsheets going with the sales numbers.  I did it for quite a while on GMI but it's tedious especially with GM switching to quarterly.  

 

Of course.  Believe it or not, it's fun for me lol.  Yeah, I gave up on monthly with other brands, and only assemble the quarterly comparison of the brands for trucks.  It'd be too much work otherwise.

 

The production figures above are from Ford's press release though (for some reason Dec 2023 didn't have them, that's why I used Nov).

[Andrew L]

2 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Of course.  Believe it or not, it's fun for me lol.  Yeah, I gave up on monthly with other brands, and only assemble the quarterly comparison of the brands for trucks.  It'd be too much work otherwise.

 

The production figures above are from Ford's press release though (for some reason Dec 2023 didn't have them, that's why I used Nov).

 

It was fun for me too, I like making excel sheets and comparing numbers.  Have you made one that compares the large luxury SUVs at all?  I am curious if Grand Wagoneer has cut into Navigator sales at all.  I looked at the numbers and saw it passed Navigator but I wasn't sure if Navigator has been losing sales to it.  I am sure there is a trend there though.

[tbone]

7 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Of course.  Believe it or not, it's fun for me lol.  Yeah, I gave up on monthly with other brands, and only assemble the quarterly comparison of the brands for trucks.  It'd be too much work otherwise.

 

The production figures above are from Ford's press release though (for some reason Dec 2023 didn't have them, that's why I used Nov).

I echo Andrew’s thanks in putting the numbers together.