FordBuyer Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 "We find oil prices would need to fall to $35 a barrel in order to bring prices in real terms back to their long run historical averages," Deutsche Bank said in a note." This is where it was been for over 60 years when adjusted for inflation. Things don't change that much in three years. See oil under $30 in 12 months. Another major shift coming shortly. Oil is already under $80 and look for gas prices to drop another .20 or so over next week. The markets should start noticing this in next couple weeks and maybe Ford and GM won't look so bad after all. Maybe you could say new F-150 is coming at just the right time with 10% better gas mileage as bonus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 You can't really trust the historical average to hold when looking at a finite resource with increasing demand for it. It may settle in at a lower price than it is now, but I doubt we'll see it as low as $35 ever again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F150 Man Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 You can't really trust the historical average to hold when looking at a finite resource with increasing demand for it. It may settle in at a lower price than it is now, but I doubt we'll see it as low as $35 ever again. Agree. If it sounds too good to be true, then... you get the point. OPEC is already making sounds of curbing production. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ford Jellymoulds Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Price is falling for all the wrong reasons, as soon as the world economy picks up so will the oil price with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted October 10, 2008 Author Share Posted October 10, 2008 Price is falling for all the wrong reasons, as soon as the world economy picks up so will the oil price with it. Oil prices are falling because demand has been destroyed. With a DOW average of around 8,000 or so, $80 oil is not supportable especially when you consider Europe and Asia are going into recession after us. With an 8,000 DOW, $40 oil would be in line with economic reality. With new CAFE rules coming, cars and tranportation in general will only get more fuel efficient, and lead to further drop in oil usage even when economy rebounds. I don't think the American public will forget $4 gas anytime soon, and a sound energy policy this time will not let us forget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted October 10, 2008 Author Share Posted October 10, 2008 A housing rebound is still more than a year away, and an auto sale rebound may be even more than a year away, so don't look for demand for gas to go up anytime soon. OPEC would have to cut oil massively just to get back even as oil usage is plummeting globaly. Also many countries like Russia will not cut much because they need oil revenues badly. We also forget that we get more oil and gas from Canada than we get from the Saudis. Most countries would cheat as they do now on any output couts. OPEC is screwed as they got greedy and now they are going to pay big time. Don't forget good ol gravity. Things always go down quicker than they go up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Price is falling for all the wrong reasons, as soon as the world economy picks up so will the oil price with it. Amen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted October 10, 2008 Author Share Posted October 10, 2008 About the only thing interesting in this economic nightmare is seeing how long it will take for investors to notice dramatically falling oil and gas prices and resulting dramtic improvement in inflation figures as we slip into dramatic deflation mode. It seems as though investors are taking very short peeks at dropping oil prices for about 20 minutes, and then go back to panic selling. All good news is being ignored, not just dropping oil prices. Home sales were up in August. IBM reported good earnings. Jobless claims are stabilized for now. The Trade Deficit is being reduced and will go down much more over coming months. The dollar is strengthening. GE made over $4billion last quarter. Third quarter earnings for most companies will be decent and projected earnings will be inline with estimaes. The freeze up of credit market is slowly thawing up with GE reporting easing of commercial paper freeze up as they maintain AAA rating. Commodity prices in general are falling which is good news for big industrial companies dependant upon raw materials. I would think that the market will start noticing these trends more and more over coming weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Price is falling for all the wrong reasons, as soon as the world economy picks up so will the oil price with it. Yep, you can also expect the oil-producing countries to soon cut back on production. No better way to increase the price of oil than to restrict supply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazerdude20 Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 (edited) opec, who controls 40% of the worlds oil, is having a meeting in vienna next week to discuss how much to cut production by. not if, but by how much. oil is not going to fall below $50 unless the whole world goes into depression. Edited October 10, 2008 by blazerdude20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadOx23 Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Even if it did go that low, you are using the same short sighted thinking that got us in trouble over the last year. It simply won't last. I'm all for cheap oil and gas, but we need to be looking for alternatives now, and not getting complacent and going back to the same bad habits we had before. Believe me, I want to run out and trade my I4 Fusion for a new F-150, but it just doesn't make sense in the long run.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn704 Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Another reason oil prices are falling is because the US$ is actually appreciating against the Euro and the Sterling Pound, and of course all commodities are priced in US$. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewq4b Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 opec, who controls 40% of the worlds oil, is having a meeting in vienna next week to discuss how much to cut production by. not if, but by how much. oil is not going to fall below $50 unless the whole world goes into depression. Exactly. Oil will stabilze above $50 per barrel. I suspect it will be in the high 60's low 70's. But that is my opinion. Matthew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timmm55 Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Wall Street speculators drove up the price. IMHO it will go up or down to the actual demand price, with some OPEC maninipulation of course. The sort of speculation we've had should be illegal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldwizard Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 Yep, you can also expect the oil-producing countries to soon cut back on production. No better way to increase the price of oil than to restrict supply. Current price is putting a serious hurt on Russia, Iran and Venezuela. They need the money. While these 3 do not control that much oil, they will do everything in their power to drive it up, or potentially face government collapse in their countries (Hmmm...that couldn't happen to 3 nicer nations ! :rolleyes: ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noah Harbinger Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 Cheap oil will only exist while the economy is in the dumps.... exactly the time you don't launch a large RWD sedan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
V8 Ford Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Cheap oil will only exist while the economy is in the dumps.... exactly the time you don't launch a large RWD sedan. They have to make a new Taurus at some point, unless D3 is going to become the next panther. In all probability, the economy won't be that bad (or even bad at all) by 2012. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted October 12, 2008 Share Posted October 12, 2008 Cheap oil will only exist while the economy is in the dumps.... exactly the time you don't launch a large RWD sedan. Ford needs to smash the idea that large sedans FWD or RWD are thirsty, how do they do it? - The 280 hp/280lbft EB I-4 could replace a 4.6 2V in the Crown Victoria and the Falcon's 4.0 I-6 - The Ecoboost V6 could replace a 5.4 V8 in most applications. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theripper Posted October 13, 2008 Share Posted October 13, 2008 (edited) rwd sedans don't necessarily have to be gas guzzlers, but any automaker that sees the drop in oil as a chance to start making big, thirsty vehicles again is stupid. to say that people never learn from the past is an understatement. Edited October 13, 2008 by theripper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
V8 Ford Posted October 13, 2008 Share Posted October 13, 2008 (edited) Nothing wrong with making big, expensive, thirsty vehicles (even now, a ton of them are sold). The problem comes when those are the only ones made for profit, and the rest of the lineup is filled with uncompetitive, unprofitable products that rely on fleet sales to unload them. Add in the inefficient corporate structure, and quality problems, and that's how Ford and co dug themselves into the hole their in. Abandoning SUVs, trucks and crossovers would be just as dumb as abandoning cars in the 1990s. Edited October 13, 2008 by V8 Ford Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted October 13, 2008 Author Share Posted October 13, 2008 Many gas stations in Metro Detroti were selling Regular for $2.75 cash today and one Marathon station dropped it down to $1.99 for about an hour. Almost all stations are under $3.00 now, but look for oil prices to bounce up this week if stock market improves a little. But it looks like gas prices will be under $3.00 for awhile as it will be long time before economy gets back to normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
630land Posted October 13, 2008 Share Posted October 13, 2008 (edited) You all will have to write your Congress Rep/Senator to get CAFE repealed, if any new V8 powered cars will come back, at all. Keep dreaming kiddies, Edited October 13, 2008 by 630land Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P71_CrownVic Posted October 14, 2008 Share Posted October 14, 2008 (edited) deleted Edited October 15, 2008 by RichardJensen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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