bzcat Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) News broke an hour ago that Ford will import next gen Fusion from China. Reuters is a reliable source so they wouldn't put out the story if they didn't vet it. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fordmotor-china/exclusive-ford-to-base-fusion-production-in-china-ship-to-u-s-sources-idUSKBN1E72LK It was then refuted by Mike Levine almost immediately https://twitter.com/mrlevine/status/941032199486365697 So who to believe? Edited December 13, 2017 by bzcat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Mike's response is pretty direct and he's always been reliable. He didn't have to respond at all if it was true, so I'd have to go with Mike on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) Told ya...... I think Mike Levine wasn't told / not in the loop and this leaked way too early, 2020? Come on, someone blabbed or saw a communication on plans. Hermosillo was never going to be a major Mondeo Fusion plant for the same reason Focus was moved to China... Big question should be whether this is a NAFTA contingency or a permanent change...and what of Hermosillo... (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co plans to consolidate global production of midsize sedans in China in 2020 and ship them to the United States and Europe, three sources said on Wednesday. So Reuters got this info from three sources, I don't believe they would have run the story with such a strong tone unless thye are absolutely sure about this. Either way, someone is going to retract what they have just said.....(hope it's not me: .) l Iook with eager on Ford having more to day on this, they have to before politicians weigh in... Edited December 13, 2017 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I don't understand this though - what would be produced at Hermosillo now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I don't think Mike would have made that statement without checking first. I think it's likely they are going to start producing Fusion/Mondeo in China for China and maybe that got misinterpreted by the three UNNAMED sources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) I don't think Mike would have made that statement without checking first. I think it's likely they are going to start producing Fusion/Mondeo in China for China and maybe that got misinterpreted by the three UNNAMED sources. Mondeo is already being produced there in a new plant......a new plant with lots of capacity to expand... LOL, whatever comes of this, I'll probably have egg on my face but I'm betting that Jim Hackett is now making changes that perhaps some inside Ford don't like / agree with... How about another back flip, the self driving cars move to Hermosillo and FRAP stays as it is? Edited December 13, 2017 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Mondeo is already being produced there in a new plant......a new plant with lots of capacity to expand... LOL, whatever comes of this, I'll probably have egg on my face but I'm betting that Jim Hackett is now making changes that perhaps some inside Ford don't like / agree with... 2 things stand out to me. 1 - Mike isn't just a Ford employee - he's the Product communications manager. 2 - he says there will be an announcement on what's happening, which leads me to believe he knows the plan. If they are changing the plans and Mike wasn't kept in the loop and they left him hanging out to dry on this one then heads should roll. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) I see this as Hackett continuing to undo Field's final changes... Field's last plans: 1. Move Focus to SLP with new EV and Autonomous vehicle 2. Cancel SLP, move Focus to Hermosillo and EV and AUV to FRAP Hacket unravelling of Fields plans: 1. Move Focus production to China - Save $1 Billion 2. End Fiesta at Cuautitlan and move EV there, FRAP plant freed up for more AUV 3. Move Fusion MKZ out of Hermosilli, transfer AUV there and save building another new plant. All wild assumptions on my part but is this seems to follow Hackett's desire to cut billions for the cost of car production Has construction of the new production plant at FRAP even begun, would Ford walk away again? My last thought, Reuters are basing their article on sources that seem to be in the supplier base, does this mean that those people know where the next generation of cars are going or not going thanks to long lead on parts supply contracts? Edited December 13, 2017 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 The Reuters article said Fusion and Mondeo production will consolidate in China, meaning it is vacating Valencia as well. Maybe the actual plan is just Mondeo and not Fusion or the Fusion part haven't been finalized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 I don't understand this though - what would be produced at Hermosillo now? Just a guess... Hermosillo: Escape 2nd plant plus short compact CUV Cuautitlan: Model E and ____? Louisville: Escape 1st plant and MKC Oakville: Edge and Nautilus Chicago: Explorer and Aviation Flat Rock: Mustang and Continental and MKZ replacement 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) And this from Autonews: The automaker has begun informing suppliers that it will not build the next-generation Fusion at its plant in Hermosillo, Mexico, where the car is currently made, according to sources familiar with the discussions. It’s unclear whether Ford would stop selling the Fusion in the U.S., replace it with a different vehicle, or build it elsewhere. A spokesman declined to comment. There's certainly a lot of food for thought with possibilities regarding which products would be used at Hermosillo Suppliers have been told Ford also plans to stop producing the Mondeo at a plant in Valencia, Spain. I think the cat is out of the bag and Ford will be scrambling to know WTF to do and say next, and if Suppliers have been told the above facts, Mike Levine would have surely known... So is Ford looking at something different for Nth America on a different local platform? Edited December 13, 2017 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just a guess... Hermosillo: Escape 2nd plant plus short compact CUV Cuautitlan: Model E and ____? Louisville: Escape 1st plant and MKC Oakville: Edge and Nautilus Chicago: Explorer and Aviation Flat Rock: Mustang and Continental and MKZ replacement At that point, why wouldn't you just make Louisville an Escape-only plant, and put MKC at Hermosillo along with the short CUV? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 What's going on with Oakville, nothing was called out in the UNIFOR contract, could Edge/Nat NG be going to Mexico? Doesn't really show up on US political radar that way and Canada actually seems somewhat okay with the dirty industry leaving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfan Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I do not put a lot of faith in the writer of the Reuters article. In the past, a lot of his "inside information" has been suspect. IMHO, perhaps the Fusion will no longer be made at Hermosillo. I would not be surprised if the next Fusion could be the mystery fourth vehicle for FRAP. The $900 million investment and addition of 900 jobs seems like a but much for a 5-10K unit a year niche vehicle like the autonomous drone they have planned for there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 (edited) I do not put a lot of faith in the writer of the Reuters article. In the past, a lot of his "inside information" has been suspect. IMHO, perhaps the Fusion will no longer be made at Hermosillo. I would not be surprised if the next Fusion could be the mystery fourth vehicle for FRAP. The $900 million investment and addition of 900 jobs seems like a but much for a 5-10K unit a year niche vehicle like the autonomous drone they have planned for there. They would need to invest next to nothing to bring the Fusion back to FRAP. They already built it for 2 1/2 years until the Continental came along. They wont even need to add any jobs. Edited December 14, 2017 by fuzzymoomoo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 They would need to invest next to nothing to bring the Fusion back to FRAP. They already built it for 2 1/2 years until the Continental came along. They wont even need to add any jobs. That could be the reason why parts suppliers were told that contracts for Hermosillo won't be required could they be discussing other locations. The question for Europe is whether a larger next gen Focus actually eats into those remaining Mondeo sales... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 That could be the reason why parts suppliers were told that contracts for Hermosillo won't be required could they be discussing other locations. The question for Europe is whether a larger next gen Focus actually eats into those remaining Mondeo sales... I dont know what the actual capacity of FRAP is but I do question whether or not it can handle THAT kind of volume between Mustang, full Fusion production and Continental, and thats not even factoring this mystery 4th car into the equation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKII Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 That could be the reason why parts suppliers were told that contracts for Hermosillo won't be required could they be discussing other locations. The question for Europe is whether a larger next gen Focus actually eats into those remaining Mondeo sales... Rumor in Europe is that the Mondeo will be cancelled 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfan Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I dont know what the actual capacity of FRAP is but I do question whether or not it can handle THAT kind of volume between Mustang, full Fusion production and Continental, and thats not even factoring this mystery 4th car into the equation. My apologies. I should have been clear that the Fusion was the mystery vehicle I was talking about for Flat Rock. Regarding volume, I think a lot of it has to do with how far Ford thinks the sedan market is going to fall. If it is about 150-175K units a year, Flat Rock could handle it with three shifts and a maximum volume of 350K a year. The AV is probably something that will be hand built in a separate building considering the low potential volumes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grbeck Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 (edited) How well is the Mondeo selling in Europe? It's my understanding that non-premium sedans of that size have suffered as the "luxury" marques have become more aggressive for sales. If Ford expects Fusion sales to remain at their current level, even with a new version, would it make sense to build it solely at Flat Rock? Edited December 14, 2017 by grbeck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 At that point, why wouldn't you just make Louisville an Escape-only plant, and put MKC at Hermosillo along with the short CUV? Because Ford will need a lot more Escape than Louisville can crank out even if you vacate MKC. Compact CUV is the new midsize sedan in terms of sales volume so Ford probably needs more than a single plant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 (edited) Louisville is producing up to 39,000 vehicles a month, if Ford transfers the 4.5K/mth MKC elsewhere, it will have more than enough capacity to produce over 450,000 Escapes a year. That could happen with China set to produce its own MKCs in the next few years, freeing up more capacity at LAP. Combine that with the knowledge that a Focus Active is on the way as well as a Model E Utility and Autonomous vehicles that probably going to be bigger than a Fiesta that's exiting Cautitlan I think Ford has the future covered...... If EVs and AUVs don't pan out, Ford will need a plan B Edited December 14, 2017 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 If EVs and AUVs don't pan out, Ford will need a plan B The Industry will need a plan B, at least Ford will have the F-series to see them though it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 (edited) How well is the Mondeo selling in Europe? It's my understanding that non-premium sedans of that size have suffered as the "luxury" marques have become more aggressive for sales. If Ford expects Fusion sales to remain at their current level, even with a new version, would it make sense to build it solely at Flat Rock? 1. Over the last 10 years, Mondeo sales have gone from 360k/year down to less than 60K/year, YTD November = 52,000 FOe is also supplier of Mondeo to ROW except China... Mondeo is getting a Vignale version as all of Ford passenger vehicle mix moves up to meet premium buyers, over 65% of FOE's passenger vehicle sales are now either titanium, Vignale, ST or RS buyers. 2. Fusion / MKZ production at Hermosillo has freduced from ~330K/year to around 200K/year Fusion could be transferred back to Flat Rock, ut that would absorb a lot of Mustang and Continental capacity for growth. they would need to get the product mix perfect....Given Hackett's underscoring of 36,000 possible ways to order a Fusion, I think it's highly likely that Ford will bundle more models / options and look to reduce what it sees as outlier production. Edited December 14, 2017 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grbeck Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Thank you for the reply, jpd80! Do you believe that the Mustang and the Continental will really grow much in sales? Coupes, in particular, aren't a hot market segment in North America right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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