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Posted (edited)

Your all missing one critical fact about EV's. 

 

They take 30% to 40% less workers to manufacture. With no complicated Engines and Transmissions they require far less UAW employees to manufacture. The reason the auto companies are pushing for the switch to EV's is they are going to be so much more profitable and the projected warranty cost are far less as well. If projections are correct the UAW auto related membership will be cut in half. 

 

That's why the UAW are quickly trying to diversify their membership.

Edited by Dayshift

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Posted (edited)

I don't see Ford spinning off the EV division because the Ford Family would likely loose their "special" class of stock and their iron clad control of the new company.

 

Also the legacy division would loose much of it's value over night. The plan is to get credit for being a modern tech company as fast as possible as they evolve into the new leaner tech company we will soon become. If I was working at an engine or transmission plant I would be looking for a life boat soon. Future does not look good for ICE.

 

Tech companies get a much higher stock multiple than traditional auto companies. Ford just wants to get credit with Wall Street for the part of the company that has already transformed itself, as they quickly struggle to transform the rest.

 

Tesla is worth around 886 billion on just $17.7 billion in sales and $2 billion in profit. (New tech company)

Ford is worth around 65.9 billion on $136 billion in sales and $10 billion in profit. (Old industrial company)

 

Edited by Dayshift

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2 hours ago, Dayshift said:

Tesla is worth around 886 billion on just $17.7 billion in sales and $2 billion in profit. (New tech company)

Ford is worth around 65.9 billion on $136 billion in sales and $10 billion in profit. (Old industrial company)

 

Irrational Exuberance

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Maybe so on Irrational Exuberance but Tesla has been over $700 a share for over a year. Their P/E has been 75 or higher since the beginning. Amazon's P/E has been over 100 forever. Ford's P/E is under 10.

 

If Ford had a P/E of just 23 (very low for a tech stock) then it's share price would be $4.43 X 23 = stock price of $101 per share.

 

 

 

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On 3/21/2022 at 5:02 PM, Dayshift said:

Maybe so on Irrational Exuberance but Tesla has been over $700 a share for over a year. Their P/E has been 75 or higher since the beginning. Amazon's P/E has been over 100 forever. Ford's P/E is under 10.

 

If Ford had a P/E of just 23 (very low for a tech stock) then it's share price would be $4.43 X 23 = stock price of $101 per share.

Historically, PE ratio don't stay this high for very long.  I've been saying Tesla is a non sustainable business model for years.  It's only the access to cheap money that has let them stay afloat to the point where they are finally earning money.  If Ford chose to take on that much debt, then maybe they'd be in better shape.  I expect we're going to have a deep financial fall, and that's where it will separate the winners and losers.  It's the risk of leverage.  Get too highly leveraged, and slightest business interruption can toast the company.  Not enough leverage, and you'll be driven out by risk takers.

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On 3/3/2022 at 8:23 PM, mnm said:

Blue oval city…. A brand new, from the ground up faculty focused on EV’s.  Now with this split, Ford is gonna fight like HELL to keep the UAW out of there.  How? Separate the EV business from the ICE business.  Like they just did!  But not just “on paper”.  As soon as the new campus gets ready to open, they “officially” spin it off into a new company. A company not bound by any previous contracts. And let the UAW get left behind on the ICE ghost ship to eventually sink on its own.  

Having been laid off three times from LTP and sent to Flat Rock and DTP (twice), I'm like a Vietnam Vet having flashbacks. This whole split reeks of Visteon. And "let the UAW get left behind on the ICE ghost ship to eventually sink on its own" is exactly my concern. I'm not certain whether I'd be better off hitching my wagon to ICE or E... but it looks like we won't even be given the option. 

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On 6/13/2022 at 12:23 AM, hllywd said:

Having been laid off three times from LTP and sent to Flat Rock and DTP (twice), I'm like a Vietnam Vet having flashbacks. This whole split reeks of Visteon. And "let the UAW get left behind on the ICE ghost ship to eventually sink on its own" is exactly my concern. I'm not certain whether I'd be better off hitching my wagon to ICE or E... but it looks like we won't even be given the option. 

This reminds me of GM's decision to split its company into "large car" and "small car" groups in the 1980s.  What was supposed to streamline functions led to duplications of functions, more bureaucracy, and slower product development.  I have a feeling this ICE/E model will go the way of Ford's Way Forward, One Ford, and Fitness programs of previous upper management's programs this century.

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4 hours ago, Footballfan said:

This reminds me of GM's decision to split its company into "large car" and "small car" groups in the 1980s.  What was supposed to streamline functions led to duplications of functions, more bureaucracy, and slower product development.  I have a feeling this ICE/E model will go the way of Ford's Way Forward, One Ford, and Fitness programs of previous upper management's programs this century.

 

Dearborn executives are masters at creating layers of bureaucracy, mandating programs, processes and procedures requiring dealership compliance, etc. The bureaucracy itself increases staff requirements and increases product development times, all of which come at a financial cost. It runs through cycles of increased staff until it reaches a point where another Dearborn based executive decides there is too much staff assigned for a particular department, project, etc. and mandates cuts to reduce costs. The Dearborn executive making the cuts gets a great performance review, enhanced reputation and is rewarded. 

 

Along these lines, I'll give an example in the case of COVP (Customer Order Verification Program) that was created to help expedite retail order scheduling with incremental allocation. Dealers that fail to meet the "Name Match" compliance requirement risk losing allocation, but the violating customer order doesn't get cancelled and the offending Dealer still gets to sell the unit. The "Name Match" requirement is too low, and no one actually knows which Dealers have actually been penalized by Ford for violating the terms of the COVP program. In addition, orders scheduled with incremental allocation are not identified. As such, there's no way to know if the COVP program is actually effective or just another Ford mandated program requiring dealership compliance without any accountability or disclosure on Ford's part showing that the program actually works as intended. The dealerships that participate in the program and make sure they comply with all the requirements bear the additional time and labor costs to ensure that they're compliant. Unfortunately, Ford doesn't disclose which dealerships are in violation of the COVP terms and/or been penalized with lost allocation or been expelled from the COVP program.      

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7 hours ago, Footballfan said:

This reminds me of GM's decision to split its company into "large car" and "small car" groups in the 1980s.  What was supposed to streamline functions led to duplications of functions, more bureaucracy, and slower product development.  I have a feeling this ICE/E model will go the way of Ford's Way Forward, One Ford, and Fitness programs of previous upper management's programs this century.


Not even close to the same situation.  All of those programs were for ICE vehicles which shared everything.  EVs have their own dedicated factories, different chassis and powertrain, battery production and a lot of dedicated parts.  While the designs are somewhat similar there are a lot of improvements to be made with EVs in ergonomics and aerodynamics that aren’t possible with ICE.

 

Having separate business units allows Ford to allocate funding differently and to use different KPIs.  Blue will be looking for minimal investment and high profit margins where EV will require huge investment and the focus will be on growth more so than profitability.  Being able to effectively manage those two radically different business models is just easier with separate business units.  It also reduces resource contention between Blue and EV projects.

 

The downside is you will duplicate some things but I think EVs are different enough that the duplication is justified (e.g. interior design).

 

And of course over time EV grows and Blue shrinks but I think we’ll see the ICE Icons stick around for a long time even with widespread EV adoption.

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Posted (edited)

akirby you have pretty much hit that nail on the head. 

 

If I can add some build (launch) information, there is a mindset that needs to be cleared up a little. EV and the FHEV & PHEV are not the same obviously. But this is not as obvious to some. With the EV models there will be facilities that produce (assemble) just the EV models. This will be separate from the FHEV & PHEV units. Example,  CAP will continue to produce all PHEV & FHEV 611 & 625 units. Along with all the 625 police or service units, with all three trim/chassis level options currently. In addition CAP 625 service units will be offered in PHEV & FHEV. 

 

The 611 & 625 EV`s may not be assembled at CAP this is true for the 2023MY & 2024MY but.... all 611 & 625 PHEV & FHEV`s will be produced at CAP for both model years. CAP will not be at a loss from any current model`s or CAP will not lose any Trim level options from current offerings. There will be an addition of another ICE offering for the 625 service units for 2023MY. There will be slightly different electronic offerings but basically CAP like most assembly facilities will not be at a loss for their facilities.  

 

As for the ICE, 2024MY will still offer ICE options across the CAP product line. Unfortunately for the rumor mongers, CAP isn't losing any product capacity. One thing CAP is... we are maxed out on Trim Level options. So not getting (or as some say losing) (how do you lose something you never had?)  the 611 & 625 EV`s isn`t a bad thing. Hell by the time the company starts full production of EV`s across the product line, the fad maybe over.... like fat rear wheel Harley`s :hat_tip:

 

An Electric Vehicle is a different assembly process from the Full Hybrid Electric Vehicle & Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle. 

Edited by Decker

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Posted (edited)

As for the possibilities of the pre mentioned fad being something in that line for "EV", FHEV", and "PHEV" offerings?

 

All "EV" SUV` s, Sedan`s and Trucks have a little something that is just not mentioned much in all the PR. Well lets just say one goes with the popular movement and goes crazy... new "EV" truck or SUV to pull the family`s get a way camper. Load all the gear in the bed or behind the 3rd row seats and put all the kids in the back seat, don`t forget Momma and her laptop. Put the camper in place. Now put your happy foot on the peddle and hear the quite rush of wind on your windshield. 

 

Now lets just say you went crazy to the tune of oh say $90K for your get a way green friendly chariot because as the friendly sales person said you gunna get 400 mile between plug in`s. Well umm nope. Any "EV" burdened with rated towing weight and passengers will see ready for this a "50%" range reduction. 

 

So.... Happy Trails Too You... as the song goes  

Edited by Decker

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35 minutes ago, Dayshift said:

Ford plans to layoff 8000 people from Ford Blue division to fund research, development and expansion of FORD Model E division.

 

This is just the beginning!

 

Very similar to Verizon and the way they treat the "landline" business (internally called the "copper side" of the house) vs how the wireless division is handled.

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