I don’t know the exact numbers because that’s not my department but I’ve read in various publications over the years that its  generally understood for an automotive production line to be profitable it typically has to be running two full time production shifts. The biggest unknown in this equation regarding Louisville and building the Fathom is how much more efficient this new production process is, just how much savings is built in and how quickly they can make back the initial investment. I’m very curious to see how it plays out and even more curious to see how much of this new system makes it into existing plants, if possible. 

They also did the same thing in Chicago prepping for the 2020 Explorer which wasn’t a radical change in construction materials. 

Eh, I’m not so sure about that. I’m not saying it would be a 100 percent shift back to steel but I think some mix could be in the cards. Things like tailgates, hoods, floor pans could all go back to steel and still use existing production processes. 

Capacity isn't the measure.  The measure is profits.

They're only running 2 shifts so they're maxed out and there isn't enough profitable volume to support a 3rd shift.  So adding ranger fleet sales would be break even at best.   TTP on the other hand needs volume and with drastically lower platform costs they can go after good fleet sales again.

MAP is not near capacity.  I just did a quick search, and MAP can produce 5,300 vehicles/week which translated to about 275,000 per year.  It looks like MAP will produce about 210,000 Broncos and Rangers in 2026, so (theoretically) there is room to add something else.

WooHoo! More of us coming out of the closet every day!

That would be a valid argument if Bronco demand maxed out production capacity, but it never has. Ford needs another vehicle in addition to Bronco to enhance MAP’s efficiency and Ford’s profit. 

Avatar is a Chang'an brand, not BYD.   And T09 is a production vehicle.    Think of the Forzda models like Laser or Telstar that Ford used to sell in APAC. This is the same thing... a lightly redsigned Chinese model with a Ford (Lincoln) badge. The difference is Ford eventually gained controlling stake in Mazda and was calling the shots. That's not going to happen with Chang'an.     

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