The idiocy of a compact Lincoln

[nelsonlu]

dont think a hybrid Focus would hit $45k...I would say $35...a CUV...YES....great bragging rights if it gets 40mpgs, business case...hmmmmm

 

Given that a fully-optioned Fusion Hybrid costs only a bit over $32K, I can't see why a Focus Hybrid would cost even $35K.

[Deanh]

Given that a fully-optioned Fusion Hybrid costs only a bit over $32K, I can't see why a Focus Hybrid would cost even $35K.

Fiesta has now taken the Focus pricing segment and then some, Focus will take over Fusion pricing and then some...etc etc....I predicted all this a few years back....by those thoughts, fusion will take over Taurus, and Taurus too will move upwards....

[one2gamble]

Fiesta has now taken the Focus pricing segment and then some, Focus will take over Fusion pricing and then some...etc etc....I predicted all this a few years back....by those thoughts, fusion will take over Taurus, and Taurus too will move upwards....

 

There is nowhere upward for the Taurus to go

[Deanh]

There is nowhere upward for the Taurus to go

scary isnt it........my guess, or 2c worth.....Taurus gets nixed and a new flagship gets released on a global platform sold in small quantities, but it will be a tour de force. The one that REALLY has me curious and excited is the Fusion/ Mondeo replacement.....which i/m guessing will slot in where the Taurus is now.....think more doodads and upgraded EVERYTHING....

[PREMiERdrum]

There is nowhere upward for the Taurus to go

 

 

scary isnt it........my guess, or 2c worth.....Taurus gets nixed and a new flagship gets released on a global platform sold in small quantities, but it will be a tour de force. The one that REALLY has me curious and excited is the Fusion/ Mondeo replacement.....which i/m guessing will slot in where the Taurus is now.....think more doodads and upgraded EVERYTHING....

 

With the take rate being so high on the Limited and SHO versions, expect the Titanium to take things significantly upwards, and the base trims to go away.

 

Remember, that the Jag XF program originally included the new Taurus, so Ford sees upmarket potential.

[RichardJensen]

Fiesta has now taken the Focus pricing segment and then some, Focus will take over Fusion pricing and then some...etc etc....I predicted all this a few years back....by those thoughts, fusion will take over Taurus, and Taurus too will move upwards....

 

You do realize that price overlap between segments has existed for years, right?

 

up to $22k for a Fiesta, up to $25k for a Focus, up to $33k for a Fusion, up to $42k for a Taurus.

 

You've got to stop looking at the 'up to's

 

And as far as backlash and economic uncertainty goes, you need to get your head out of the OC in particular and California in general.

 

Inasmuch as California breathed deeply of the highs of the last boom, so too are they tasting the depths of the bust. It's the early 90s all over again (you remember? when the OC went Chapter 11 and nobody learned a goldurn thing?)

Edited June 14, 2010 by RichardJensen

[Deanh]

You do realize that price overlap between segments has existed for years, right?

 

up to $22k for a Fiesta, up to $25k for a Focus, up to $33k for a Fusion, up to $42k for a Taurus.

 

You've got to stop looking at the 'up to's

 

And as far as backlash and economic uncertainty goes, you need to get your head out of the OC in particular and California in general.

 

Inasmuch as California breathed deeply of the highs of the last boom, so too are they tasting the depths of the bust. It's the early 90s all over again (you remember? when the OC went Chapter 11 and nobody learned a goldurn thing?)

its no longer an overlap though Richard its a mutiny, the C cars are over-running the B's. etc etc..... Reflection of inflation and increasing content no less...90's didnt effect me like this...not even remotely, but it is what it is, I am located where I am and I observe what I observe....seriously, I dont rightfully know how some afford cars anymore.....now used on the other hand, the busiest part of our lot is the sub 10k used car section...

[silvrsvt]

90's didnt effect me like this...not even remotely, but it is what it is, I am located where I am and I observe what I observe....seriously, I dont rightfully know how some afford cars anymore.....now used on the other hand, the busiest part of our lot is the sub 10k used car section...

 

 

I hope not, this is the most SEVERE economic downturn since 1930's. As stated by someone else...I think prices are rising because people aren't replacing them every couple years and take out longer loans and keep them longer because of this.

 

 

[Deanh]

I hope not, this is the most SEVERE economic downturn since 1930's. As stated by someone else...I think prices are rising because people aren't replacing them every couple years and take out longer loans and keep them longer because of this.

weird times, feels like i'm treading water with arm floaties and one has a slow leak....lol. As for California ( the State most seem to like to bash, but all secretly wished they were here, ,,,closet Californians as such ) ...it make be broke, but I dont think anyone anywhere else is better off, we are all in the same boat as such...now, in terms of professions yep, theres HUGE dis-crepencies as to how and whom has been affected....... the car business is definitely inconsistant for sure...

[RichardJensen]

90's didnt effect me like this...not even remotely

you were less invested in your place and time.

 

--

 

And if the US car market is 14M new vehicles, of which some 25% are fleet purchases, you're looking at about 10M new vehicle sales.

 

The adult population of the US is 224,000,000. There are over 100,000,000 households in the US. 10M new vehicles means that only one out of ever 224 adults, and only one household in 10 is buying a new car.

[RichardJensen]

all secretly wished they were here

I wish I were in California.

 

In 1956.

 

I wish I could go to the California of open spaces, Routes 66, 99 and 101, tourist camps, orange groves, sunshine, clear air, and affordable property.

 

Give me -that- California any time. I have no desire to live in THIS California.

[Deanh]

you were less invested in your place and time.

 

--

 

And if the US car market is 14M new vehicles, of which some 25% are fleet purchases, you're looking at about 10M new vehicle sales.

 

The adult population of the US is 224,000,000. There are over 100,000,000 households in the US. 10M new vehicles means that only one out of ever 224 adults, and only one household in 10 is buying a new car.

less overhead for sure, but not sure that explains an income being 1/2 of what it was....wish I knew the answer....amybe the timing of when i joined BON....hmmmmm....nope, thats due to an excess of spare time..... no sympathy just wish i was busier...

Edited June 14, 2010 by Deanh

[Deanh]

I wish I were in California.

 

In 1956.

 

I wish I could go to the California of open spaces, Routes 66, 99 and 101, tourist camps, orange groves, sunshine, clear air, and affordable property.

 

Give me -that- California any time. I have no desire to live in THIS California.

understand...theres still pockets of sanctuary...just one has to search them out now.... :shades: Double edged sword i guess, all i see elsewhere are floods, hurricanes Tornadoes and people in big trucks with texas flags....

Edited June 14, 2010 by Deanh

[NickF1011]

Yeah, but I'm still thinking they'll get better margins and higher ATPs on a well executed CUV than a similarly executed compact sedan.

 

 

Certainly no argument there. I've hoped from the beginning that the C-segment vehicle being referred to turns out to be a CUV. I'm just arguing in the hypothetical that they end up doing both.

[Noah Harbinger]

I wish I were in California.

 

In 1956.

 

I wish I could go to the California of open spaces, Routes 66, 99 and 101, tourist camps, orange groves, sunshine, clear air, and affordable property.

 

Give me -that- California any time. I have no desire to live in THIS California.

 

I cry a little every time I see an aerial photo of San Diego in the 50s... (And I'm allowed to - both my parents and 2 of my grandparents were born here )

 

Nevertheless it's only 45 minutes to places where you won't see other cars more than every few minutes. There are still tons of lovely places, roads twisting through the mountains or snaking along oceanside cliffs through redwoods. Orange and avocado groves, even

 

The smog I grew up with is gone. I remember whenever the wind blew from the north, school would be closed because of unhealthy air quality. That hasn't happened in 10 years.

 

Land cost is a bitch, but that's mostly because homeowners voted themselves a sweet deal (1% of assessed value - which is fairly average, but that "assessed value" is based on purchase price + 2% annually - much lower than the actual inflation in home cost, which averages 4%).

 

I have no idea what a tourist camp is...

[RichardJensen]

I have no idea what a tourist camp is...

 

Motor court. Primitive Motel. Those cottages with one or two units in them.

 

 

---

 

Naturally, I would want a car considerably safer than the ones they had back then (I'm not nostalgic for 4 wheel drum brakes, a steel dashboard--with sharp edges, yet, or a steering column that would impale you.)

[mercblue281]

Shouldn't Lincoln have a vehicle to challenge a 5-series BMW or a Lexus GS before it worries about a compact (CUV or otherwise)?

 

If you look at the top luxury brands (including caddy) their flagships are established leaders that can keep a halo around the brand. In the NA market there is MB, BMW, Lexus, Audi, Caddy that can carry a full lineup based on reputation. The history of compact or entry level luxury is sketchy here - we've had failures: X-type, Catera, Cimarron (haha!) probably others i forgot. And successes: Acura Integra, Lexus IS.

 

It just seems to me that before Ford assumes Lincoln volume can be driven higher by entry level luxury, they need a full stable of mid and full size models capable of attaining pricing equivalent or close to its competitors. They're close now that they have the MKS but that isn't going to steal buyers from the germans.

 

If they wanna bring back an LS i think that would be well received. People still pay big $$ for those used and some are almost 10 years old now. That was the last Lincoln introduced to critical acclaim and able to charge its sticker. Bringing in a domestic Lincoln that could attack the CTS, 5-series, Lexus GS, etc. could win over a lot of buyers and get a price point that would carry more cache. Saying "look here we've got a $30k Focus spin off!" just isn't going to bring the brand up in the eyes of the public like the Navigator and LS did.

 

Lincoln right now does not have the cache to shoot low and bring volume way up. Ford should know you can't rejigger a Fiesta or Focus and get $10k more for it than you would as a Ford. At least not yet they can't.

[akirby]

If they wanna bring back an LS i think that would be well received. People still pay big $$ for those used and some are almost 10 years old now.

 

Say what? They're DIRT CHEAP and have been since they discontinued them. Great bargain if you want a used car but not a good example for resale value.

 

Lincoln right now does not have the cache to shoot low and bring volume way up.

 

Wouldn't you need "cachet" to shoot high with a new flagship as opposed to an entry level product? The volume doesn't have to be huge - just enough to recover costs and give Lincoln dealers product to round out the lineup.

 

Ford should know you can't rejigger a Fiesta or Focus and get $10k more for it than you would as a Ford.

 

They do and that's NOT what they're planning to do. Have you not been paying attention at all? Just because it shares a b or c platform doesn't make it a cheap rebadge.

[Biker16]

Certainly no argument there. I've hoped from the beginning that the C-segment vehicle being referred to turns out to be a CUV. I'm just arguing in the hypothetical that they end up doing both.

 

I think ford should have a White space Vehicle like the MKc, and a conventional CUV based on the Focus, and possibly a Coupe convertable based on the Focus. Simply because I don't think Ford buyers will ante up for a CC Focus but lincoln buyers will.

Total voulme of all 3 would be 80,000-120,000. break down would be 30k Mkc 40k CUV 10k CC.

 

By going with the CUV/MKC/CC you can more cost effectivly develop lincoln switch gear apart form the FOcus Switch gear.

 

All 3 could would share a lincoln specific drivetrain, wheels, and steering wheel, etc to start.

 

The MKc would have a completely new top hat based on the short Focus floorpan

 

The CUV would be based on the kuga

 

the CC based on EU focus CC.

[RichardJensen]

If you look at the top luxury brands (including caddy)

Don't include Cadillac.

 

30k Mkc 40k CUV 10k CC.

 

The MKC & CC projections are incredibly unreasonable.

 

You're not going to sell close to 1,000 convertibles a month. Forget it. Not gonna happen. I doubt Ford sells that many MUSTANG convertibles a month. Half that number, TOPS.

 

And for the MKC? If it's that ugly Pacerish piece of crap, selling in the high $20s, you can forget 30k. 2,500 of THEM a month? TRIPLE the volume of 'trollmobile' sales (A3/C30)? Saying the MKC will immediately grab 75% of the market for hideous and tiny cars-----also NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

[ausrutherford]

Don't include Cadillac.

 

 

 

The MKC & CC projections are incredibly unreasonable.

 

You're not going to sell close to 1,000 convertibles a month. Forget it. Not gonna happen. I doubt Ford sells that many MUSTANG convertibles a month. Half that number, TOPS.

 

And for the MKC? If it's that ugly Pacerish piece of crap, selling in the high $20s, you can forget 30k. 2,500 of THEM a month? TRIPLE the volume of 'trollmobile' sales (A3/C30)? Saying the MKC will immediately grab 75% of the market for hideous and tiny cars-----also NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

 

1000? You only need to sell 833.33 on average units per month to sell 10,000 units.

[RichardJensen]

1000? You only need to sell 833.33 on average units per month to sell 10,000 units.

 

That's why I said CLOSE TO 1000.

 

And 833.33 convertible sales a month is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN either.

 

This idea that Ford can get up to 120,000 Lincoln sales off C2 is utterly preposterous. Especially since those thoroughly implausible numbers add up to only 80k.

[ausrutherford]

That's why I said CLOSE TO 1000.

 

And 833.33 convertible sales a month is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN either.

 

This idea that Ford can get up to 120,000 Lincoln sales off C2 is utterly preposterous. Especially since those thoroughly implausible numbers add up to only 80k.

 

In the US on its first year no...US, Canada, Mexico, ME, and China YES.

[Deanh]

Don't include Cadillac.

 

 

 

The MKC & CC projections are incredibly unreasonable.

 

You're not going to sell close to 1,000 convertibles a month. Forget it. Not gonna happen. I doubt Ford sells that many MUSTANG convertibles a month. Half that number, TOPS.

 

And for the MKC? If it's that ugly Pacerish piece of crap, selling in the high $20s, you can forget 30k. 2,500 of THEM a month? TRIPLE the volume of 'trollmobile' sales (A3/C30)? Saying the MKC will immediately grab 75% of the market for hideous and tiny cars-----also NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Wiow Rich, why dont you really tell us what you think of the MKC, font hold back now......

[RichardJensen]

In the US on its first year no...US, Canada, Mexico, ME, and China YES.

 

No.

 

If Ford is direct marketing the Mustang overseas, they'll be doing that with any niche Lincoln convertible. And Canada? CANADA? C-A-N-A-D-A? You think the market for convertibles gets BETTER the farther north you go?

 

I won't even touch Mexico.