msm859 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 20 years, minimum, before you see a majority of vehicles being BEV. In reality, if I had to put money on it, I would say closer to 40. Unless we are just talking cars, as in sedans. Those numbers are dwindling drastically, so that may be possible in 20. Well I would take that bet. Last July/August the Tesla 3 was the 5th best selling sedan in America. By revenue it was the number 1 selling sedan. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1-best-selling-car-in-the-us/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msm859 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Most cars are not going to be BEVs in 10 years. At most they'll be plug in hybrids. You're not going to fix the range/recharge issues that quickly. It will slowly get better but not that fast. And I'd say that the Aviator IS a leapfrog. You're just stuck on the idea of a stupid fast electric only mode which is completely unnecessary in a PHEV with a 400 hp ICE. Right now the competition for luxury PHEV suv's are the Range Rover Sport and Volvo XC90 so we will see how the Aviator compares. I am not stuck on stupid fast electric mode. I would like to see 0-60 in 8 seconds. Stupid fast would be the performance Tesla model X 0-60 in 2.8 seconds! Trying to rely on a 400 hp ICE for your performance is yesterdays technology - not tomorrows. And for the record my daily driver is a C7 Z51 Corvette. So I am not prejudiced against ICE, I just see the writing on the wall and for Ford to excel they need to leapfrog todays offerings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Trying to rely solely on battery electric power and an electric motor for high performance when there is a 400 HP ICE just sitting there doing nothing is extremely stupid. If that’s what you want go buy a Tesla. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Well I would take that bet. Last July/August the Tesla 3 was the 5th best selling sedan in America. By revenue it was the number 1 selling sedan. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1-best-selling-car-in-the-us/ That’s still only 1.5% of all vehicles sold in the US. And a lot of those are leases who may not buy another one. You’re delusional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msm859 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Trying to rely solely on battery electric power and an electric motor for high performance when there is a 400 HP ICE just sitting there doing nothing is extremely stupid. If that’s what you want go buy a Tesla. Okay I will try this again. I am NOT trying to rely on the electric motor for 'HIGH PERFORMANCE". I agree that is what the ICE will be for in a PHEV. I am trying to rely on the electric motor for reasonable city driving and casual highway driving for hopefully at least 30 miles between charges. If the electric motor can only generate sluggish (0-60 in 14.6 seconds) performance, then people will be relying on the ICE more often killing the gas mileage. What I do not understand is you using terms such as delusional and stupid. This should be an open civilized conversation among car enthusiasts. Not sure why the emotion against electric cars ? And for the record NONE of the model 3's were leases - they do not have a lease program yet. As to my "delusions" time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 That’s still only 1.5% of all vehicles sold in the US. And a lot of those are leases who may not buy another one. You’re delusional. i heard on Autoline After Hours recently that pure BEV's only make up 0.7% o the U.S. market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Not sure why the emotion against electric cars ? Because they're not ready for prime time. I've been in communication with Henry Payne, who is an automotive writer for the Detroit News (Mr. Payne has also ordered a Tesla Model 3). Payne has tested many electric vehicles. His experience is that BEV's can lose up to 50% of their battery charge in cold weather (meaning 32 degrees, which really isn't that cold). For those who live in a cold climate, such as me (northern Michigan), losing 50% of your battery charge is not acceptable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 I’m not at all against electric cars. They’re great as niche vehicles. But the inherent problems with range in cold weather as mackinaw mentioned, long recharging times and lack of recharging infrastructure are not something that is going to be solved completely in the next 10 years. Saying otherwise is to completely ignore common sense and facts and that’s why you’re delusional if you think the majority of vehicles on the road will be BEVs within 10 years. I’ve also pointed out that the current Fusion Energi does just fine with 118 hp electric motor. The Aviator will probably have more power than that since it will also be shared with the F150, but it doesn’t have to be 200 or 300 hp. It should have a combined 550 hp give or take for awesome performance and the ability to go 30 miles on the battery alone. That’s all it needs to do. If you want balls to the wall BEV performance then wait for the Model E. That should have similar performance to the Tesla Model S and look like a Porsche Panamera. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Well I would take that bet. Last July/August the Tesla 3 was the 5th best selling sedan in America. By revenue it was the number 1 selling sedan. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1-best-selling-car-in-the-us/ Where is the power going to come from to charge these vehicles? There isn't anywhere near enough surplus energy generation in this country to replace gas for 8 million new cars a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Did MLMH5 come back to bug us? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoonerLS Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 If you want balls to the wall BEV performance then wait for the Model E. That should have similar performance to the Tesla Model S and look like a Porsche Panamera. So, you're saying we should be expecting another track video? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 So, you're saying we should be expecting another track video? Of course! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Where is the power going to come from to charge these vehicles? There isn't anywhere near enough surplus energy generation in this country to replace gas for 8 million new cars a year. That's been debunked completely so many times I don't know why people still bring it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 That's been debunked completely so many times I don't know why people still bring it up. Really? So, you are telling me that the infrastructure is currently in place to charge 25 million electric cars? That's only 3 years' worth if BEVs make up the majority of cars sold. I consult for a fairly large utility, and I know they don't have plants sitting idle or base load plants running at less than 100% capacity. I would imagine most other utilities don't either. Could you point me to some articles that debunk that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellanca Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Really love this thing, and from the one set of spy photos it appears to be keeping many of those little details like the ventswas kind of a letdown when the Continental concept had those nifty vents and then the production version looked like everything else theyd already had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msm859 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 I’m not at all against electric cars. They’re great as niche vehicles. But the inherent problems with range in cold weather as mackinaw mentioned, long recharging times and lack of recharging infrastructure are not something that is going to be solved completely in the next 10 years. Saying otherwise is to completely ignore common sense and facts and that’s why you’re delusional if you think the majority of vehicles on the road will be BEVs within 10 years. I’ve also pointed out that the current Fusion Energi does just fine with 118 hp electric motor. The Aviator will probably have more power than that since it will also be shared with the F150, but it doesn’t have to be 200 or 300 hp. It should have a combined 550 hp give or take for awesome performance and the ability to go 30 miles on the battery alone. That’s all it needs to do. If you want balls to the wall BEV performance then wait for the Model E. That should have similar performance to the Tesla Model S and look like a Porsche Panamera. I didn't mean the majority of the cars on the road in 10 years would be BEVs, I was talking about new car sales. Reviewing some experts they are saying it will be more like 15 years before 1/2 the cars sold will be BEVs. As to what is on the road that will probably take a long time absent some disruptive force. As to the Aviator, Lincoln should power the front wheels with the 3.0 eb and put 2 of the 118hp fusion motors in the rear - 1 for each wheel. They would save weight and space by eliminating the transfer case and drivetrain components that could offset the space/weight they need for the battery. Handling would be more exact with separate control of the rear wheels and performance would be killer AND you can easily use electric only around town getting great average mpg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 I didn't mean the majority of the cars on the road in 10 years would be BEVs, I was talking about new car sales. Reviewing some experts they are saying it will be more like 15 years before 1/2 the cars sold will be BEVs. As to what is on the road that will probably take a long time absent some disruptive force. As to the Aviator, Lincoln should power the front wheels with the 3.0 eb and put 2 of the 118hp fusion motors in the rear - 1 for each wheel. They would save weight and space by eliminating the transfer case and drivetrain components that could offset the space/weight they need for the battery. Handling would be more exact with separate control of the rear wheels and performance would be killer AND you can easily use electric only around town getting great average mpg. Those "experts" are just guessing and they're being overly optimistic. Remember when the same "experts" said we'll have flying cars by 2000? You can't do FWD for 2 reasons - you can't put that much power into just the front wheels and the Aviator platform is RWD to begin with. You could put the motor(s) on the front wheels but they're planning to integrate the motor with the 10 speed RWD transmission so it can be used in mustang and f150 also. It's also a much simpler design. I just don't understand why you think it needs that much electric power or why you need to detune the ICE. Neither make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msm859 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Those "experts" are just guessing and they're being overly optimistic. Remember when the same "experts" said we'll have flying cars by 2000? You can't do FWD for 2 reasons - you can't put that much power into just the front wheels and the Aviator platform is RWD to begin with. You could put the motor(s) on the front wheels but they're planning to integrate the motor with the 10 speed RWD transmission so it can be used in mustang and f150 also. It's also a much simpler design. I just don't understand why you think it needs that much electric power or why you need to detune the ICE. Neither make sense. Have you ever driven a Tesla? Electric gives you 100% torque at zero rpm. What would you rather have - an Aviator with a 400 hp ICE + 118 hp electric motor OR an Aviator with a 350 hp ICE and TWO 118 hp electric motors. The second choice will hands down handle better, be quicker and more fun AND get much better real world average mpg. It makes perfect sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Because that system is significantly more expensive and more complicated than what Ford has designed. You apparently didn’t read anything I wrote. This system will also be used in mustang and F150 so it will probably use a larger motor - I’m guessing at least 150 hp. And it will be integrated into the tranny - significantly more simple and completely reusable as is in multiple vehicles. So that version provides 550 total HP in balls to the wall mode. Your version provides 586 HP. Aviator PHEV doesn’t have to be super fast in EV mode. With that I’m done unless you can come up with a better argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
92merc Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Have you ever driven a Tesla? Electric gives you 100% torque at zero rpm. What would you rather have - an Aviator with a 400 hp ICE + 118 hp electric motor OR an Aviator with a 350 hp ICE and TWO 118 hp electric motors. The second choice will hands down handle better, be quicker and more fun AND get much better real world average mpg. It makes perfect sense. I'd be willing to sacrifice "a little" performance in exchange for being able to take my vehicle on a road trip longer than 250 miles. With no charging stations available in ND, a BEV is a local driver only for me. Can't justify the costs for that. A Lincoln Aviator I could justify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Volvo XC90 T8 Here's the problem with the XC90 T8: its ICE is an in-line 4 and the vehicle gets its hp/torque from four(!) separate power sources, which don't always play together well. The base engine, a supercharger, a turbo charger, and an electric motor dedicated to running the rear wheels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Here's the problem with the XC90 T8: its ICE is an in-line 4 and the vehicle gets its hp/torque from four(!) separate power sources, which don't always play together well. The base engine, a supercharger, a turbo charger, and an electric motor dedicated to running the rear wheels. Yikes-that sounds like a problem waiting to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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