passis Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, ausrutherford said: Ford will make more money selling 50,000 units of Ranger, Transit, Bronco Sport, Maverick, Territory, Mach-E in Brazil than selling 200,000 units of Focus, EcoSport, Fiesta, and Ka. For the moment we only have the Ranger - Territory is irrelevant. The rest are just promisses nobody can buy today - and make money out of them. Edited January 25, 2021 by passis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 hours ago, HotRunrGuy said: Yeah, more profits for Ford. But less jobs at Ford, suppliers and dealers if you only make & sell 50K vs 200K. HRG Not less jobs for Ford. They’re redirecting resources not scaling back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 48 minutes ago, akirby said: Not less jobs for Ford. They’re redirecting resources not scaling back. They’re closing plants. How is that not less jobs? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, akirby said: The problem is keeping a market alive requires continued investment which requires capital and other resources. By exiting a market or market segment those resources can be diverted to BEVs and other new vehicles and technologies. It’s likely faster and cheaper to exit now, revamp the business while enjoying more profits which should accelerate the transformation, then re-enter markets with new products where it makes sense. It’s like buying a really old house - sometimes it’s better to tear it down and rebuild from scratch than to try and fix it up. I agree with most of what you said. But you have to agree that re-entering a market is not that easy. Especially when you leave slamming the door, making everyone angry. If Stellantis (I'm considering the 4th largest in the country) decides tomorrow they are closing all FCA production in the US, how long would it take for the public opinion and consumers to forget about job losses, depreciation in resail price of their current vehicles and possible lack of reposition parts? I guess the time to recover general confidence would be long. Edited January 25, 2021 by passis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said: They’re closing plants. How is that not less jobs? Oops. I was thinking of Ford corporate, Good point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) On 1/24/2021 at 9:29 AM, ausrutherford said: Ford will make more money selling 50,000 units of Ranger, Transit, Bronco Sport, Maverick, Territory, Mach-E in Brazil than selling 200,000 units of Focus, EcoSport, Fiesta, and Ka. You are assuming the market will be receptive to a brand that is walking wounded with a perception that it is about the withdraw from the market. Why would anyone want to buy a Ranger and risk Ford pulling out of Brazil completely when they know Toyota, Fiat, VW, and Chevy will be there tomorrow, next week, and next year. Ford did the same song and dance routine in every market it scales back local manufacturing and it hardly ever makes more profit. Usually it just accelerate the losses into the stratosphere thus justifying pulling the plug completely. Focus on pickup truck and van is the right call - that's Ford's strength. But Ford is actually not a big truck and van seller in Brazil... this is the problem. Product planning has always been the issue - for example, why is Ford not already selling Transit and more importantly Transit Connect in Brazil? Remember, Ford dealers in Brazil also recently lost the medium duty Cargo business - do you think they will embrace this decision to end their remaining volume sellers? It's a death sentence for a lot of Ford dealers. Gutting the Ka and EcoSport without a robust Transit and Ranger business already in place is a withdraw strategy, not a scale-back and refocus strategy. Edited January 25, 2021 by bzcat 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) Locals have long been begging for a Courier replacement, based on the Ka, and an Ecosport trucklet. From what I hear, corporate never gave the go ahead sign. Fiat's biggest hits here are exactly the Strada and the Toro. FCA has always given permission for local managers to do what's best for the market, whereas Ford is very centralizer and keeps changing strategy: Autolatina, OneFord, now this shitshow... Edited January 25, 2021 by passis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 hours ago, bzcat said: You are assuming the market will be receptive to a brand that is walking wounded with a perception that it is about the withdraw from the market. Why would anyone want to buy a Ranger and risk Ford pulling out of Brazil completely when they know Toyota, Fiat, VW, and Chevy will be there tomorrow, next week, and next year. Ford did the same song and dance routine in every market it scales back local manufacturing and it hardly ever makes more profit. Usually it just accelerate the losses into the stratosphere thus justifying pulling the plug completely. Focus on pickup truck and van is the right call - that's Ford's strength. But Ford is actually not a big truck and van seller in Brazil... this is the problem. Product planning has always been the issue - for example, why is Ford not already selling Transit and more importantly Transit Connect in Brazil? Remember, Ford dealers in Brazil also recently lost the medium duty Cargo business - do you think they will embrace this decision to end their remaining volume sellers? It's a death sentence for a lot of Ford dealers. Gutting the Ka and EcoSport without a robust Transit and Ranger business already in place is a withdraw strategy, not a scale-back and refocus strategy. It could be both. Considering Ford's stated goal of 8% return in global market, I'd say that cutting production in South America goes a long way towards stopping the haemorrhage of money that's been occurring but equally true that the region needs more than just Ranger and Transit. So does that clearing if the decks now mean iimported vehicles like F Trucks and maybe a few products from Mexico or does it open the door to sourcing more vehicles from VW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 30 minutes ago, jpd80 said: The region needs more than just Ranger and Transit. 23 hours ago, passis said: I'm just saying that Ford is relying on the fact that the volumes lost in underperforming segments will not affect the scale of their business. In the particular case of Brazil, around 85-90% of total sales (~150k/year) came from that closed plant. So within this month dealers volumes are dropping by the same amount. Most will close doors and Fords will be sold in limited 50 showrooms around the whole country - that's 2 dealers per state. You now have Ford dealers angry and Ford owners angry. As a consequence, Ranger sales will plummet, just when the company is investing money in Argentina for NG Ranger. Without Brazil can Argentina production survive? And without Camaçari, won't Argentina suffer similar consequences? This domino effect will drag the whole region and Ford will lose money in the Pacheco plant. Then, in a few years South América will continue to be a money pit. On top of the 2021 massive loss from Camaçari. And when it is time to develop replacement for NG Ranger, the bill will not be split with South América. But GM and Toyota will, so their products will have lower costs and will be more competitive in global markets. I'm very skeptical that the Ranger production in Argentina is sustainable now. (And there's no "Ford" production in Uruguay for the Transit, it's just a third party company that assembles CKD vehicles for other carmakers, like Peugeot...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 21 hours ago, jpd80 said: It could be both. Considering Ford's stated goal of 8% return in global market, I'd say that cutting production in South America goes a long way towards stopping the haemorrhage of money that's been occurring but equally true that the region needs more than just Ranger and Transit. So does that clearing if the decks now mean iimported vehicles like F Trucks and maybe a few products from Mexico or does it open the door to sourcing more vehicles from VW? Ford probably thinks it can replicate in Brazil what it pulled off in Australia and NZ... switching over to selling just Ranger (sourced from Argentina in this case) and a few imported models from North America and Europe. The challenges I think are: 1. Ranger is too expensive to be a big volume seller to support the distribution network. It's hard to imagine that you can refocus the Ford brand to sell mainly Ranger like in Australia when midsize trucks are a small segment in Brazil. Ford is missing compact and subcompact trucks which sell in much higher volume. Maverick will address the compact one but it will be imported from Mexico. Ford hasn't had much success selling Mexico sourced vehicles in Brazil. 2. Ford has a credibility problem in Brazil. When Ford ended production in Australia, there wasn't any real expectation that Ford will withdraw completely. Ranger was already the top selling Ford model in Australia and it wasn't affected by the end of local production. It's different in Brazil because the top sellers (EcoSport and Ka) are the one ending production. 3. There is regional chain effect at work. Ford Australia has regional engineering center that is responsible for Ranger and Ford was committed to producing in Thailand so there was no doubt Ranger will keep coming. Ford doesn't have much of engineering center left in Sao Paulo and its existence in Brazil and the entire South America market is in doubt. How do you maintain relevance in Chile or Uruguay without EcoSport from Brazil for example? And if these smaller markets in South America collapses because there are not affordable models, there goes the Ranger volume too. So that will lead to Ford pulling the plug in Ranger in Argentina. So what will Ford sell in Brazil? Everything will circle the drain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, bzcat said: Ford probably thinks it can replicate in Brazil what it pulled off in Australia and NZ... switching over to selling just Ranger (sourced from Argentina in this case) and a few imported models from North America and Europe. The challenges I think are: 1. Ranger is too expensive to be a big volume seller to support the distribution network. It's hard to imagine that you can refocus the Ford brand to sell mainly Ranger like in Australia when midsize trucks are a small segment in Brazil. Ford is missing compact and subcompact trucks which sell in much higher volume. Maverick will address the compact one but it will be imported from Mexico. Ford hasn't had much success selling Mexico sourced vehicles in Brazil. 2. Ford has a credibility problem in Brazil. When Ford ended production in Australia, there wasn't any real expectation that Ford will withdraw completely. Ranger was already the top selling Ford model in Australia and it wasn't affected by the end of local production. It's different in Brazil because the top sellers (EcoSport and Ka) are the one ending production. 3. There is regional chain effect at work. Ford Australia has regional engineering center that is responsible for Ranger and Ford was committed to producing in Thailand so there was no doubt Ranger will keep coming. Ford doesn't have much of engineering center left in Sao Paulo and its existence in Brazil and the entire South America market is in doubt. How do you maintain relevance in Chile or Uruguay without EcoSport from Brazil for example? And if these smaller markets in South America collapses because there are not affordable models, there goes the Ranger volume too. So that will lead to Ford pulling the plug in Ranger in Argentina. So what will Ford sell in Brazil? Everything will circle the drain. Looking at Q3 sales of Ranger in Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, those numbers approximate sales in Australia. I know that's an incomplete view of Latin American sales but retention of Ranger production in South America is completely justified for now at least. While profits from those South American Rangers are less than the Aussie sales mix, I think it's something that Ford can work with but they need other products that reach local buyers and how that's achieved is the real key. There's no question that every decision regarding South America is all about stopping losses and reaching that global target of 8% return. I wonder if this is where outsourcing to someone like VW comes in.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 (edited) Ranger can't keep sales volumes with only a fraction of dealerships. PS: Not to mention Ford's terrible reputation, currently. Edited January 27, 2021 by passis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 A few corpses have been found in Camaçari: this is the defunct Ford Maya, to be produced alongside the Ecosport and Territory https://www.mobiauto.com.br/revista/exclusivo-ford-maya-o-suv-cupe-brasileiro-que-morreu-antes-de-nascer/559 Specifications and design don't seem very appealing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Is this one of those models based on a Chinese vehicle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 No, I don't think so, they're based on an extension of Fiesta's B2 in order to accomplish longer wheelbases. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 hours ago, passis said: A few corpses have been found in Camaçari: this is the defunct Ford Maya, to be produced alongside the Ecosport and Territory https://www.mobiauto.com.br/revista/exclusivo-ford-maya-o-suv-cupe-brasileiro-que-morreu-antes-de-nascer/559 Specifications and design don't seem very appealing... So this is basically a coupe version of the next gen Territory. A competitor to VW Nivus... (Territory will be more of a Taos and Compass competitor) Also the article was very helpful in shedding light on Ford's original strategy. And now that we know BX755 (EcoSport), BX784 (Maya) and BX755 (Territory) were all being engineered in Brazil, it kind of make sense why there was lots of tension with Mahaindra in India... I'm sure Mahindra wanted to continue with its Ssangyong based XUV300 rather switch to Ford based BX755. What is unclear is whether BX784 and 785 will be revived for China and Mexico. Seemed obvious that those vehicles would sell in China as well and Territory need to replaced eventually. And Mexico has plenty of room to produce them. The Cuautitlan plant can produce another 150k~200k vehicle easily. BX755 EcoSport seems like it will never happen now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Nivus is much smaller, very similar to the Polo. I think the idea was: -Ecosport x Renegade x TCross -Maya x Compass x Taos -Territory x "Grand Compas" x Tiguan - B2 x SmallWide x MQB Had they predicted a cheaper truck, Camaçari plant could work just as well as FCA's Goiana: -Courier x Toro x Tarok Mexico, China and also Romania could take advantage of these projects. The deal with Mahindra and BX745 is indeed still obscure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, bzcat said: BX755 EcoSport seems like it will never happen now. So what will replace it then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, silvrsvt said: So what will replace it then? Guessing nothing will replace it. EcoSport sales has collapsed to almost nothing in Europe because of Ford's neglect so the answer is probably don't need to be replaced. EU buyers prefer Puma anyway which is more on point for that market. With Ford not bothering to compete as volume seller in India or South America, there is no need for EcoSport either in those markets. Ford China stopped selling EcoSport 2 years ago because it is so ridiculously out of date. It wasn't clear if the new one was going back in China anyway. Ford US can just sell the new Territory if it survives as the entry level CUV. If Territory doesn't survive, seems like Ford will just not bother with the entry level. Perhaps Maverick will be the only offering below $20k. Edited January 28, 2021 by bzcat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 hours ago, bzcat said: Guessing nothing will replace it. EcoSport sales has collapsed to almost nothing in Europe because of Ford's neglect so the answer is probably don't need to be replaced. EU buyers prefer Puma anyway which is more on point for that market. With Ford not bothering to compete as volume seller in India or South America, there is no need for EcoSport either in those markets. Ford China stopped selling EcoSport 2 years ago because it is so ridiculously out of date. It wasn't clear if the new one was going back in China anyway. Ford US can just sell the new Territory if it survives as the entry level CUV. If Territory doesn't survive, seems like Ford will just not bother with the entry level. Perhaps Maverick will be the only offering below $20k. Doesn't Territory use non-Ford powertrains? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Ford: less than a month after closing, parts are already missing at dealerships Barely completed a month of closing Ford plants in Camaçari-BA and Taubaté-SP, the American brand distributor network already feels the effects in the after-sales, according to the UOL website. In a circular from Abradif (Brazilian Association of Ford Distributors), the entity already indicates the lack of component parts for the Ka, Ka Sedan and EcoSport models, which were removed from the line with the closure of the Bahian plant. According to the entity, Procon has sent notifications with complaints from Ford customers, who allege lack of parts in the authorized network. Abradif also informed the dealers that it will be charging the automaker for the situation it generated, making it liable for damages to customers and storeowners. In addition, the association recommends that distributors make their case, claiming that there is no control over the availability and production of parts and accessories for Ford models. As a result, the situation of Ford car owners is getting more complicated. In addition to the accelerated devaluation with the end of production and the consequent withdrawal of products from the market, the lack of parts is an even greater problem. The Ford network continues to function and provides assistance to car owners of the brand, however, without parts and components, it is difficult to maintain the vehicles that enter the workshops. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&u=https://www.noticiasautomotivas.com.br/ford-menos-de-um-mes-de-fechamento-ja-faltam-pecas-nas-revendas/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 hours ago, rmc523 said: Doesn't Territory use non-Ford powertrains? The current one does but we are talking about the next gen that was under development in Brazil which will for sure use Ford powertrain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 While I can't find the article now-there was an article talking about the Bronco, Mach E and F-150 and mention of a lower priced product that was done in a short period of time that seems like it happened with in the past 12-24 months, which would preclude the Maverick...I wonder if that is going to be the Ecosport replacement? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: While I can't find the article now-there was an article talking about the Bronco, Mach E and F-150 and mention of a lower priced product that was done in a short period of time that seems like it happened with in the past 12-24 months, which would preclude the Maverick...I wonder if that is going to be the Ecosport replacement? I think that was project CX758 and, as far as I remember, it was shelved... but who knows now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passis Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Sad, but predictable, in January Ford sold less than the Fiat Strada... Next month, Ford should be disputing 12th place with Chery, Peugeot and Mitsubishi... https://www.mobiauto.com.br/revista/carros-mais-vendidos-de-janeiro-ford-ja-vende-menos-que-fiat-strada/575 Even dealers are fearing Ford will leave for good in less than two years https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&u=https://www.uol.com.br/carros/noticias/redacao/2021/02/01/ford-concessionarios-temem-saida-definitiva-e-querem-passar-regua.htm Overall, Ford partners are pissed in Brazil: ' "Ford has a mutt in his hand and wants to fight with a pit bull," says the dealer, on condition of anonymity, about the automaker's intention to compete with the German brands and Volvo. Only with imported cars, the average vehicle ticket will place Ford in the same category of premium brands. The fear is that customers prefer to pay the same amount in a luxury car. The source also says that the US $ 4.2 billion that Ford has allocated to pay the indemnities of all those involved are already in Brazil. "We do not want a legal dispute, this is very time consuming, but we intend to lock this money and the sale of any asset by Ford do Brasil until all distributors are compensated". "Executives want to take advantage of the economic crisis to pay less and pocket the bonus. It is not fair to deal with distributors who have leveraged the brand, invested. There are dealers who have been in the business for four generations. ' https://www.uol.com.br/carros/noticias/redacao/2021/01/22/concessionarios-nao-aceitam-proposta-de-indenizacao-da-ford.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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