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Stray Kat

Sandy Munro’s dire warning

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23 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

He also admitted that all work now being done by his company is for electric auto companies,

that kinda implies that the traditional automakers are not requiring his services, is he projecting anger?

 

 

 

Didn't his group do something for the Mach E? 

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

 

Didn't his group do something for the Mach E? 

Yes they deconstructed the Mach E and did some consulting on things they found that they thought could be improved. Very interesting because they found a lot they liked. I think Ford did a pretty good job. 

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34 minutes ago, Stray Kat said:

Yes they deconstructed the Mach E and did some consulting on things they found that they thought could be improved. Very interesting because they found a lot they liked. I think Ford did a pretty good job. 

 

It was interesting to watch the questions regarding the complexity of hoses for the cooling system, comparing it to the much simpler Tesla cooling system, suggesting that a lot of clamps and hoses could be eliminated, only to discover that the whole system is common from C2 hybrid/PHEV. It was actually cheaper for Ford to use an existing system/supplier than to build and make something unique for Mach E, remembering it started out as the E C-Max….

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21 hours ago, Flying68 said:

My thoughts. 

1. Munro is approaching crazy old man territory when it comes to Tesla. I didn't watch this video but I did watch one where he went off on NHSTA for dating to look into the safety (or lack there of) of autopilot and FSD. He is blinded by the gee whizz factor and seems to have lost his sound engineering judgement and ethics which would dictate that you don't release beta software into the public which when it fails can cause death.

2. Tesla's Z score is entirely driven by their insane market capitalization driven entirely by zealots without regard to actual fundamentals. 

He may be crazy but he’s in good company. 
 

 

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13 hours ago, jpd80 said:

is he projecting anger?

 

Sandy Munro is projecting genius, which to some regular people could be perceived as anger or craziness.

Edited by rperez817

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I don’t know about Sandy Munro other than that he seems to be very respected and has seen a lot. 
 

I do however remember when the Big 3 were sacked by the Japanese invasion in the 70’s. I even remember the first Toyota I ever rode in. The first Japanese vehicle I owned was a ‘73 Mazda B1600 in about 1982. Big difference between that and a normal F150 but it fit my needs perfectly. I remember spending the summer of 1972 in Italy and saw first hand what a small engine/small exterior/large interior volume cars looked like and what they could do. 
 

Even as an 11 year old kid that summer I knew we were doing it wrong at least for people that just needed basic transportation. That Toyota? That was ‘74/‘75 ish. 
 

We (meaning Detroit) should’ve been able to guess where things were going when we started getting the Beetle here and it took off. Ford probably came the closest in 1960 with the 144” Falcon but that quickly got bigger and fatter. I still remember Dorothy Claire (my best friend’s mom) shifting her three on the tree ‘61 Falcon on our way to the department stores. 
 

I give GM a lot of credit for the Corvair but it never seemed like just basic transportation it was more of a “one up” on VW. 
 

We completely missed it by 1973. Even though I have a fondness for cars like the Maverick, Pinto and Mustang II, Ford could’ve been the best of the Big 3 if they never built those and simply Federalized the Cortina and Escort. The 1.6 Kent then later the 2.0 EAO would’ve become as popular as the small block Chevy of the 1970’s. 
 

Ford had good cars that were perfect for the times but they would not sell them to us. 
 

There were exceptions of course and each one was a smash hit. The Capri had a cult following, the Pantera did as well and the Ford Fiesta arguably the best and certainly the quickest car in Ford’s lineup in the late 70’s. 
 

What does this have to do with EV’s today? Well I have noticed that the usual haters and curmudgeons that “will never give up their gas powered muscle car” come up with countless ways to resist the future kicking and screaming. 
 

They are like that until their wife comes home and says, “honey I went shopping with Joanie today and I was just so impressed with her little EV (insert any name here), she said she never has to go to the gas station and if it breaks down (although very unlikely) the technician comes to her. No dealership hassles!” “Honey I think I’d like to trade in my Goliath SUV because Joanie could fit all our packages right inside just as well”

 

So Kevin the caveman gives in and takes a ride in an EV and notices they go pretty good and the body lines ain’t that bad and you know “I saw a concrete contractor putting up forms last week and the whole jobsite was lit up by his F150 Lighting”.

 

”It was way past 9:00 PM and there was no generator sound at all”. “I wonder if I can get a Maverick or Ranger Lightning with an off road package? That’d be nice when we go camping”

 

The point of all this nonsense is rather than being smugly resistant like so many traditionalists always are I think this great transportation and energy storage reset should be viewed as renewed opportunity rather than some of the things I’ve heard it called. Not here but in a lot of the reading and listening I’ve been doing. 
 

Random thoughts I know but just being a distant casual observer and not an insider it’s all I can offer at this point. 

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1 hour ago, Stray Kat said:

I don’t know about Sandy Munro other than that he seems to be very respected and has seen a lot. 
 

I do however remember when the Big 3 were sacked by the Japanese invasion in the 70’s. I even remember the first Toyota I ever rode in. The first Japanese vehicle I owned was a ‘73 Mazda B1600 in about 1982. Big difference between that and a normal F150 but it fit my needs perfectly. I remember spending the summer of 1972 in Italy and saw first hand what a small engine/small exterior/large interior volume cars looked like and what they could do. 
 

Even as an 11 year old kid that summer I knew we were doing it wrong at least for people that just needed basic transportation. That Toyota? That was ‘74/‘75 ish. 
 

We (meaning Detroit) should’ve been able to guess where things were going when we started getting the Beetle here and it took off. Ford probably came the closest in 1960 with the 144” Falcon but that quickly got bigger and fatter. I still remember Dorothy Claire (my best friend’s mom) shifting her three on the tree ‘61 Falcon on our way to the department stores. 
 

I give GM a lot of credit for the Corvair but it never seemed like just basic transportation it was more of a “one up” on VW. 
 

We completely missed it by 1973. Even though I have a fondness for cars like the Maverick, Pinto and Mustang II, Ford could’ve been the best of the Big 3 if they never built those and simply Federalized the Cortina and Escort. The 1.6 Kent then later the 2.0 EAO would’ve become as popular as the small block Chevy of the 1970’s. 
 

Ford had good cars that were perfect for the times but they would not sell them to us. 
 

There were exceptions of course and each one was a smash hit. The Capri had a cult following, the Pantera did as well and the Ford Fiesta arguably the best and certainly the quickest car in Ford’s lineup in the late 70’s. 
 

What does this have to do with EV’s today? Well I have noticed that the usual haters and curmudgeons that “will never give up their gas powered muscle car” come up with countless ways to resist the future kicking and screaming. 
 

They are like that until their wife comes home and says, “honey I went shopping with Joanie today and I was just so impressed with her little EV (insert any name here), she said she never has to go to the gas station and if it breaks down (although very unlikely) the technician comes to her. No dealership hassles!” “Honey I think I’d like to trade in my Goliath SUV because Joanie could fit all our packages right inside just as well”

 

So Kevin the caveman gives in and takes a ride in an EV and notices they go pretty good and the body lines ain’t that bad and you know “I saw a concrete contractor putting up forms last week and the whole jobsite was lit up by his F150 Lighting”.

 

”It was way past 9:00 PM and there was no generator sound at all”. “I wonder if I can get a Maverick or Ranger Lightning with an off road package? That’d be nice when we go camping”

 

The point of all this nonsense is rather than being smugly resistant like so many traditionalists always are I think this great transportation and energy storage reset should be viewed as renewed opportunity rather than some of the things I’ve heard it called. Not here but in a lot of the reading and listening I’ve been doing. 
 

Random thoughts I know but just being a distant casual observer and not an insider it’s all I can offer at this point. 

 

Interesting post. I wonder if more females will be willing to buy BEVs than males. I suspect so once prices start moderating. Maybe safer to charge up at home and work rather than gas up at some sketchy gas station in the dark. Also less maintenance and dealing with service people who see female customers as more vulnerable to deception. 

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14 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Interesting post. I wonder if more females will be willing to buy BEVs than males. I suspect so once prices start moderating. Maybe safer to charge up at home and work rather than gas up at some sketchy gas station in the dark. Also less maintenance and dealing with service people who see female customers as more vulnerable to deception. 

My wife is less interested in a BEV than I am.  My son wants his next car to be a BEV.  My daughter-in-law isn’t interested in a BEV yet.  A good friend of theirs has a Tesla.  That isn’t enough to convince her. 

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Most people I know could care less what is under the hood of their car so I don’t think the vast majority probably wouldn’t be put off without the visceral sounds of a combustion engine. 
 

I think convenience will be way more attractive once a few brave souls in the neighborhood try an EV. I know convenience is a top priority for me and I’m a shade tree gear head with grease under my fingernails. 
 

Matter of fact the reduction of dirt and grease is another increasingly attractive aspect of EV’s for me.  

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3 hours ago, Stray Kat said:

I don’t know about Sandy Munro other than that he seems to be very respected and has seen a lot. 
 

I do however remember when the Big 3 were sacked by the Japanese invasion in the 70’s. I even remember the first Toyota I ever rode in. The first Japanese vehicle I owned was a ‘73 Mazda B1600 in about 1982. Big difference between that and a normal F150 but it fit my needs perfectly. I remember spending the summer of 1972 in Italy and saw first hand what a small engine/small exterior/large interior volume cars looked like and what they could do. 
 

Even as an 11 year old kid that summer I knew we were doing it wrong at least for people that just needed basic transportation. That Toyota? That was ‘74/‘75 ish. 
 

We (meaning Detroit) should’ve been able to guess where things were going when we started getting the Beetle here and it took off. Ford probably came the closest in 1960 with the 144” Falcon but that quickly got bigger and fatter. I still remember Dorothy Claire (my best friend’s mom) shifting her three on the tree ‘61 Falcon on our way to the department stores. 
 

I give GM a lot of credit for the Corvair but it never seemed like just basic transportation it was more of a “one up” on VW. 
 

We completely missed it by 1973. Even though I have a fondness for cars like the Maverick, Pinto and Mustang II, Ford could’ve been the best of the Big 3 if they never built those and simply Federalized the Cortina and Escort. The 1.6 Kent then later the 2.0 EAO would’ve become as popular as the small block Chevy of the 1970’s. 
 

Ford had good cars that were perfect for the times but they would not sell them to us. 
 

There were exceptions of course and each one was a smash hit. The Capri had a cult following, the Pantera did as well and the Ford Fiesta arguably the best and certainly the quickest car in Ford’s lineup in the late 70’s. 
 

What does this have to do with EV’s today? Well I have noticed that the usual haters and curmudgeons that “will never give up their gas powered muscle car” come up with countless ways to resist the future kicking and screaming. 
 

They are like that until their wife comes home and says, “honey I went shopping with Joanie today and I was just so impressed with her little EV (insert any name here), she said she never has to go to the gas station and if it breaks down (although very unlikely) the technician comes to her. No dealership hassles!” “Honey I think I’d like to trade in my Goliath SUV because Joanie could fit all our packages right inside just as well”

 

So Kevin the caveman gives in and takes a ride in an EV and notices they go pretty good and the body lines ain’t that bad and you know “I saw a concrete contractor putting up forms last week and the whole jobsite was lit up by his F150 Lighting”.

 

”It was way past 9:00 PM and there was no generator sound at all”. “I wonder if I can get a Maverick or Ranger Lightning with an off road package? That’d be nice when we go camping”

 

The point of all this nonsense is rather than being smugly resistant like so many traditionalists always are I think this great transportation and energy storage reset should be viewed as renewed opportunity rather than some of the things I’ve heard it called. Not here but in a lot of the reading and listening I’ve been doing. 
 

Random thoughts I know but just being a distant casual observer and not an insider it’s all I can offer at this point. 

 

Lots of good points. And it's something I've been pointing out in these forums for a while...  interest and demand for BEV is actually really high. The trouble is most consumers can't find the right BEV right now. Auto companies in general are several years too slow to meet this demand which is why Tesla has the market valuation that it has. Once there is EV option in every size and segment, you will see ICE sales plummet to only 15~20% of the market in a very short amount of time. 

 

Plug in vehicles is now roughly 1/3 of the market in EU and BEV is over double digits market share in Germany, California, and China. This change is inevitable. 

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1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

Lots of good points. And it's something I've been pointing out in these forums for a while...  interest and demand for BEV is actually really high. The trouble is most consumers can't find the right BEV right now. Auto companies in general are several years too slow to meet this demand which is why Tesla has the market valuation that it has. Once there is EV option in every size and segment, you will see ICE sales plummet to only 15~20% of the market in a very short amount of time. 

 

Plug in vehicles is now roughly 1/3 of the market in EU and BEV is over double digits market share in Germany, California, and China. This change is inevitable. 

What’s absolutely hilarious is that Ford seems shocked at the huge response to Lightning and now have to scramble to increase production. They were until recently unaware of just how much the market has changed before their very eyes….

I think this is the crux of Sandy Munro’s concern about Ford and the other heritage automakers they’re doing the 1970s again

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6 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Sandy Munro is projecting genius, which to some regular people could be perceived as anger or craziness.

His previous posts were a lot angrier and contained expletives, it’s all about China is coming and they will take everything. Sandy is just as frustrated by Ford and GM as some of us here, they seem to be taking too much time getting going with EV and ignoring the value end like Oakville MEBs.

 

He would be 100% right if automakers were doing absolutely nothing but I wonder if that’s a foregone conclusion for North America. I can see Europe being far more open to imported Chinese EVs but the rapid embrace envisages may be over dramatised.

 

Yes, lots of people are open to buying EVs but maybe there’s still time as the rollout of vehicles and charging infrastructure  won’t be an instant thing. That’s not to dampen down enthusiasm where products like Lightning promise to bring lots of new buyers, balance in all things.

Edited by jpd80

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17 hours ago, jpd80 said:

His previous posts were a lot angrier and contained expletives, it’s all about China is coming and they will take everything. Sandy is just as frustrated by Ford and GM as some of us here, they seem to be taking too much time getting going with EV and ignoring the value end like Oakville MEBs.

 

He would be 100% right if automakers were doing absolutely nothing but I wonder if that’s a foregone conclusion for North America. I can see Europe being far more open to imported Chinese EVs but the rapid embrace envisages may be over dramatised.

 

Yes, lots of people are open to buying EVs but maybe there’s still time as the rollout of vehicles and charging infrastructure  won’t be an instant thing. That’s not to dampen down enthusiasm where products like Lightning promise to bring lots of new buyers, balance in all things.

 

The thing is that despite the narrative that is getting pushed by the media (who might be getting paid by the Chinese) I still see a lot of resistance to buying their products, esp when it comes to cars in North America, esp after current events. I think we will see a lot of upheaval over the course of the next decade or so with companies retrenching there dependance on Chinese made items when they come and if push comes to shove over Taiwan (which most likely will happen in the next 10-15 years) thing could get very ugly with supply chains. 

 

Plus the other thing with EVs-wasn't there a recent article about women buying Teslas and returning to ICE products after a few years due to the issues with them? 

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18 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

The thing is that despite the narrative that is getting pushed by the media (who might be getting paid by the Chinese) I still see a lot of resistance to buying their products, esp when it comes to cars in North America, esp after current events. I think we will see a lot of upheaval over the course of the next decade or so with companies retrenching there dependance on Chinese made items when they come and if push comes to shove over Taiwan (which most likely will happen in the next 10-15 years) thing could get very ugly with supply chains. 

 

Plus the other thing with EVs-wasn't there a recent article about women buying Teslas and returning to ICE products after a few years due to the issues with them? 

BEVs are definitely being pushed hard by some groups, certain vehicles will do well and probably serve as a litmus test for other buyers sitting on the fence. IMO, more could and should be done with hybrids and PHEVs as a way of introducing more folks to the immediate benefits of hybrids.

 

And you’re right, the embrace of Chinese EVs in Europe and elsewhere is yet to be seen, a lot of convincing for folks wove never seen/heard of most of them. I think at first, European and American buyers will stick with known home brands, China takeover isn’t a done deal by any means.

Edited by jpd80

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“Disposable” items are one thing - if my $500 TV bites the dust after a year or two it sucks, but I’ll buy another one. A $30-$60k vehicle needs to last and be serviceable for a decade plus. 
 

That’s where the Chinese are going to have trouble making headway. Using smaller established brands like Volvo as a Trojan Horse is probably their best strategy.  It’s the issue with Fisker too - fool me once…

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11 minutes ago, sullynd said:

“Disposable” items are one thing - if my $500 TV bites the dust after a year or two it sucks, but I’ll buy another one. A $30-$60k vehicle needs to last and be serviceable for a decade plus. 
 

That’s where the Chinese are going to have trouble making headway. Using smaller established brands like Volvo as a Trojan Horse is probably their best strategy.  It’s the issue with Fisker too - fool me once…

Good point and I just heard that the Polestar and a Mitsubishi EV are Chinese made vehicles under the skin. 
 

What a lot of people don’t realize is that brands like Kohler and Kawasaki and many other recognizable names have been building their lower end products in China for a while. You only think you’re getting an American or Japanese made item. 
 

You’re right though the Chinese brands will take a while to catch on but I suspect there are going to be some sub $20 K Chinese EV’s coming here that are going to be hard to resist for many city dwellers and college kids etc. 

 

Time will tell. 
 

P.S. can we get a sub $20K Ford EV please. 

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1 hour ago, Stray Kat said:

P.S. can we get a sub $20K Ford EV please. 

 

If future government regulations allow motor vehicles that meet UN/ECE or China GB standards to be sold to American consumers, Ford may be able to import low-cost BEV models developed in those markets to the U.S., maybe even at price points below 20k USD.

Edited by rperez817

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18 hours ago, jpd80 said:

His previous posts were a lot angrier and contained expletives, it’s all about China is coming and they will take everything. Sandy is just as frustrated by Ford and GM as some of us here, they seem to be taking too much time getting going with EV and ignoring the value end like Oakville MEBs.

 

He would be 100% right if automakers were doing absolutely nothing but I wonder if that’s a foregone conclusion for North America. I can see Europe being far more open to imported Chinese EVs but the rapid embrace envisages may be over dramatised.

 

Yes, lots of people are open to buying EVs but maybe there’s still time as the rollout of vehicles and charging infrastructure  won’t be an instant thing. That’s not to dampen down enthusiasm where products like Lightning promise to bring lots of new buyers, balance in all things.

 

I think the key to Lightenings high order count is the low starting price of $39,000. That got people's attention, much like the value pricing of Maverick. Good marketing by Ford. Ford is showing how to create interest in BEVs and electrified vehicles in general....low starting price. I see Toyota is following by offering hybrid option on lowest RAV4 trim level for 2022. With inflation, starting price is becoming even more important. 

 

No way will BEV goals be met by offering vehicles that start at $60,000. And they have to be attractive and offer good value for the money without being so minimalist as interior of Tesla models. And actual physical knobs for HVAC and tuning, volume would be helpful also. And safer to boot. 

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21 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

I think the key to Lightenings high order count is the low starting price of $39,000.


It’s already aluminum, how are they lightening it?

 

(Its Lightning)

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You don’t get to 100% BEV without models starting at $20k.  Remember you won’t have a lot of cheap used BEVs for many many years and everyone can’t afford a $30K+ new vehicle and most won’t benefit from a tax credit.

 

We’re in phase 1 with $35K and up vehicles and at home charging with some easy access to public chargers and a few willing to go 100% BEV and plan trips around chargers.  But most will be 2nd vehicles driven less than 250 miles per day with home charging.

 

Remember - 100% means EVERYONE - all price points, all types of vehicles and most importantly ALL LOCATIONS.  There is a huge difference in charging infrastructure between a big city and the rural South, Midwest or Plains states and that’s not changing overnight.

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39 minutes ago, akirby said:

There is a huge difference in charging infrastructure between a big city and the rural South, Midwest or Plains states and that’s not changing overnight.

 

In Tennessee, the state government, Tennessee Valley Authority, local utility companies, and other businesses are teaming up to address that issue. The goal is to have a network of DCFC stations every 50 miles along Tennessee's interstates and major highways, plus additional stations elsewhere in rural parts of the state. This is a good example of a public-private partnership that can be adopted throughout the U.S. TVA, Tennessee to bring electric vehicle recharging stations .. (powerlinks.news)

 

David Salyers, the commissioner for the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation, said the new initiative will help finance the building of rapid recharging stations in rural areas of the state to ensure that any electric vehicle driver is within 50 miles of a recharging station when they are traveling on the state's busiest highways. Most urban areas already have both public and rapid charging stations, but TVA and state officials said the new program is designed to allay motorists' "range anxiety" about where to get quick battery recharges while on the road with electric vehicles.

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5 hours ago, Stray Kat said:

Good point and I just heard that the Polestar and a Mitsubishi EV are Chinese made vehicles under the skin. 

 

Polestar is a Volvo, just built in China like other Volvo that we get in the US (e.g. S90, previous gen XC60 etc). 

 

Mitsubishi Airtrek is a rebadged GAC Trumpchi model but it's just a quick rebadge to meet local compliance requirements since Mitsubishi doesn't have any EV for sale in China.

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5 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

I think the key to Lightenings high order count is the low starting price of $39,000. That got people's attention, much like the value pricing of Maverick. Good marketing by Ford. Ford is showing how to create interest in BEVs and electrified vehicles in general....low starting price. I see Toyota is following by offering hybrid option on lowest RAV4 trim level for 2022. With inflation, starting price is becoming even more important. 

 

No way will BEV goals be met by offering vehicles that start at $60,000. And they have to be attractive and offer good value for the money without being so minimalist as interior of Tesla models. And actual physical knobs for HVAC and tuning, volume would be helpful also. And safer to boot. 

As we saw with the Tesla 3, you can almost guarantee that Tesla will only be building high series cyber trucks as a priority and even Ford has a propensity to prioritise rich trim mixes in the first year of a new model. The $39k starting price might be a factor in building strong reservation but I have a hunch that it’s more to do with comparable pricing with ICE F150 and maybe the super long line over at Cybertruck.

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2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

In Tennessee, the state government, Tennessee Valley Authority, local utility companies, and other businesses are teaming up to address that issue. The goal is to have a network of DCFC stations every 50 miles along Tennessee's interstates and major highways, plus additional stations elsewhere in rural parts of the state. This is a good example of a public-private partnership that can be adopted throughout the U.S. TVA, Tennessee to bring electric vehicle recharging stations .. (powerlinks.news)

 


Of course they’re working on it, but it remains to be seen how quickly that can be done in all 50 states.  The point is you can’t get to 100% BEV without solving ALL of these problems for EVERYBODY.  All price points, all locations.  

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Not sure how we are going to get sub 20K BEVs

The Average cost of a new car 21 years ago was about $21K

 

Today its $45,031

 

I can see them maybe a profit at 25-30K mark without any government subsidies  

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