What happened to EVs? The sudden slowdown in electric car sales is a symptom of a much uglier problem

[silvrsvt]

https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-ev-sales-prices-problem-transportation-2024-1

 

Some interesting points, but the comments about public transportation and trains "saving us" are ridiculous 

[Roland]

This just central planners talking about what they want to happen.  Pushing the unwashed masses out of personal transportation into busses and trains has always been the goal.  Making transportation too expensive is part of the process and "climate crisis" is the excuse.

[dmpaul]

While the author does mention public transportation as the "most effective way to reduce emissions", he also acknowledged this is not going to happen in the near future.

 

I agree with this quote: " America's EV plan needs to lean into what these cars do well: short daily trips that can be taken in small, affordable cars. People who frequently take long trips can take advantage of hybrid cars. " I assume that hybrid would include PHEV as well.

 

My opinion is price is one of the bigger obstacles to more EV adoption.

[rmc523]

It's the same issues as it's always been:

 

-Charging infrastructure - both public and private (or lack thereof)

-Price - with everything costing a fortune these days, and EVs being quite a bit more expensive than gas cars, sales aren't going to keep up a good trajectory

 

This article also brings up the next hurdle they're going to throw out that we've been saying for a while - "Big EVs need more batteries and are bad for the environment"......yes, EVs are not the panacea of environmental friendliness they're made out to be......just wait for regulations on percentages of various materials in the batteries, etc.

[DeluxeStang]

I'd rather die than live in a world where public transportation overthrows cars as the go to option. Not just because I'm a huge car enthusiast, but public transportation is just so miserable and inconvenient. When I used to commute to class from Salt Lake down to Provo, it would take about 30 mins give or take by car. Whereas if you had to take the train, it was a 10 minute drive to the station, waiting anywhere from 5 mins to well over an hour for the next train to arrive, riding the train for 50 mins, waiting for the bus to arrive, riding the bus for 15 minutes, and then walking to the campus. Not fun, especially commuting in a blizzard. 

 

Public transportation just isn't reliable in this country, I'd miss class multiple times just due to the train getting delayed by several hours. Even when it was working properly, it wasn't pleasant. 

[rmc523]

Public transportation isn't a realistic option unless you're in a big city, and even then, that depends on the city.

[dmpaul]

I'm going to echo DeluxeStang on the SLC to Provo train. The one time the train would be a big benefit is during football games in Provo. I live about 70 miles from Provo, which normally takes about about an hour and a half, but during football games this can easily double. Perfect circumstance for taking the train, right? Except the train doesn't run after 10 (at least to my station) so if it's an evening game, you can get there but can't get home. So frustrating.

 

But I don't want this thread to turn into a rant against public transportation. Suffice it to say that EVs are not the ultimate solution. I just wonder when the regulators are going to wake up, and how will car companies respond after their massive cash investments.

 

 

[silvrsvt]

I live in one of the most densely populated areas in the US and public transportation still sucks. It is useful to a point, but in no matter would I want to use it on a daily basis. 

 

I use Amtrak to get to Northern VA to visit a friend of mine, but I'm fortunate its only a 5-10 minute drive from his house and I still have to drive 30 minutes to get to the local station to me and deal with the sketchiness of Trenton, but it beats dealing with traffic on 95 to get there. 
 

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, dmpaul said:

But I don't want this thread to turn into a rant against public transportation. Suffice it to say that EVs are not the ultimate solution. I just wonder when the regulators are going to wake up, and how will car companies respond after their massive cash investments.

 

Here's the thing-given how car centric the USA is, EVs are the least bad option. Yeah there are short comings with charging and a lesser extent range, but the charging situation should improve as time goes on. 

 

CAFE is going to force EVs eventually and car makers see that EVs will eventually provide fatter profit margins due them being less complex to build, once battery cell pricing gets to a certain point. 

Edited January 3 by silvrsvt

[DeluxeStang]

2 hours ago, dmpaul said:

I'm going to echo DeluxeStang on the SLC to Provo train. The one time the train would be a big benefit is during football games in Provo. I live about 70 miles from Provo, which normally takes about about an hour and a half, but during football games this can easily double. Perfect circumstance for taking the train, right? Except the train doesn't run after 10 (at least to my station) so if it's an evening game, you can get there but can't get home. So frustrating.

 

But I don't want this thread to turn into a rant against public transportation. Suffice it to say that EVs are not the ultimate solution. I just wonder when the regulators are going to wake up, and how will car companies respond after their massive cash investments.

 

 

Yeah, and unless they changed it, the trains don't run on Sunday either I believe. There would be times where my commute to class round trip would be more than 4 hours. 

[Deanh]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Here's the thing-given how car centric the USA is, EVs are the least bad option. Yeah there are short comings with charging and a lesser extent range, but the charging situation should improve as time goes on. 

 

CAFE is going to force EVs eventually and car makers see that EVs will eventually provide fatter profit margins due them being less complex to build, once battery cell pricing gets to a certain point. 

theres another issue thats starting to rear its head as well...repair costs ...windsheilds for $4500 an $8000 dent repair ( a Rivian article ) and vehicles being totalled after crashes in which other vehicles would be considered salvagable.....theres a reason BEVs are more expensive to insure....EV high repair costs are a given, but a Rivian owner discovered that even fixing a dented bumper could cost more than a new car. Chris Apfelstadt shared on a Rivian Facebook group that his R1T was rear-ended at low speed. For the Rivian, it was just a fender-bender, and you could overlook it entirely if you didn't know where to look. The owner figured the repair would be expensive, but he had no idea how expensive it would be.

He took the car to a Rivian-certified repair shop in Central Ohio, where the technicians proved incredibly meticulous. This might seem an exaggeration, but they disassembled the rear end to look for damage behind the bumper. The repairs took two and a half months, but the truck was returned to like-new condition. The final bill shocked the R1T owner, though, as it had $42,000 at the bottom. That's an eye-watering amount that would make anyone cry if they don't have good insurance coverage. Luckily for Chris, it wasn't the case with his fender-bender.

Many people reading his story think the repair shop scammed the insurance company and inflated the repair costs. There's no way a dented bumper costs that much to fix unless it is made entirely of gold and needs to be replaced. Still, other Rivian owners share similar stories on social media. User u/nrrasmussen had a similar collision in his R1S, resulting in minor damage to their SUV. The repairs took four months to finish and cost $19,000. Although this is significantly less than Chris's R1T, it's still expensive 

Edited January 3 by Deanh

[fordmantpw]

14 minutes ago, Deanh said:

theres another issue thats starting to rear its head as well...repair costs ...windsheilds for $4500 an $8000 dent repair ( a Rivian article ) and vehicles being totalled after crashes in which other vehicles would be considered salvagable.....theres a reason BEVs are more expensive to insure....EV high repair costs are a given, but a Rivian owner discovered that even fixing a dented bumper could cost more than a new car. Chris Apfelstadt shared on a Rivian Facebook group that his R1T was rear-ended at low speed. For the Rivian, it was just a fender-bender, and you could overlook it entirely if you didn't know where to look. The owner figured the repair would be expensive, but he had no idea how expensive it would be.

He took the car to a Rivian-certified repair shop in Central Ohio, where the technicians proved incredibly meticulous. This might seem an exaggeration, but they disassembled the rear end to look for damage behind the bumper. The repairs took two and a half months, but the truck was returned to like-new condition. The final bill shocked the R1T owner, though, as it had $42,000 at the bottom. That's an eye-watering amount that would make anyone cry if they don't have good insurance coverage. Luckily for Chris, it wasn't the case with his fender-bender.

Many people reading his story think the repair shop scammed the insurance company and inflated the repair costs. There's no way a dented bumper costs that much to fix unless it is made entirely of gold and needs to be replaced. Still, other Rivian owners share similar stories on social media. User u/nrrasmussen had a similar collision in his R1S, resulting in minor damage to their SUV. The repairs took four months to finish and cost $19,000. Although this is significantly less than Chris's R1T, it's still expensive 

 

A $4500 windshield has absolutely nothing to do with what propels the vehicle.  That's the stupidity of the CyberTruck!

 

Those other issues are specific to the Rivian and NOT EVs in general. Sure, a little more car has to be taken into account to make sure the battery isn't compromised, but it's not that drastic.  Our Mach-E costs a bit more to insure than the Escape it replaced.  However, the sticker price is double the sticker of the Escape, so I expect the cost to insure to be higher.  Kinda like, common sense, you know?

[Deanh]

58 minutes ago, fordmantpw said:

 

A $4500 windshield has absolutely nothing to do with what propels the vehicle.  That's the stupidity of the CyberTruck!

 

Those other issues are specific to the Rivian and NOT EVs in general. Sure, a little more car has to be taken into account to make sure the battery isn't compromised, but it's not that drastic.  Our Mach-E costs a bit more to insure than the Escape it replaced.  However, the sticker price is double the sticker of the Escape, so I expect the cost to insure to be higher.  Kinda like, common sense, you know?

understand about the windsheild...but the costs of repairs on EVs is inherantly expensive...a lot to do with the fact they are smaller niche manufacturers perhaps so parts scarcity, although Im not quite sure that applies to tesla as they seem to be every second car around here lately...and Ive heard some shockers regarding repairs and maintenence specifically on them and Tesla Service outlets...as for Insurance the premiums ARE higher on BEVS, ( I questioned my Insurance agent whom Ive been with for 20 plus years ) some Insurance agencies refuse to insure them for various reasons...perhaps thats a reflection of fire issues and Battery cost replacements in the event THAT happens...little bit of a tough road for the "newcomers"...That said I saw  a Raptor get written off wen a tree fell on the truck...idnt actually look THAT bad...but once the bill got to 85k it was totalled...( irony here, guys adress was on a street called Bending Tree! ) 

[silvrsvt]

I had my windshield replaced on my Bronco, didn’t even make the first payment yet, and it was $700 bucks after my deductible! I really think that they are  “scaming” Labor time for reprogramming the sensors under the windshield. 
 

in years past the average windshield replacement cost was under $500 bucks which was my compressivedeductible 

[2005Explorer]

The fact is automobile prices are rising much faster than wages are increasing. This coupled with the fact many automakers are trying to exit the affordable vehicle categories because they are low profit makes things even tougher for middle class consumers to buy new vehicles. Public transportation isn't really an option in some places, but if new vehicle prices keep rising at the rate we've seen over the last 2-3 years people will be quickly priced out.

[Deanh]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I had my windshield replaced on my Bronco, didn’t even make the first payment yet, and it was $700 bucks after my deductible! I really think that they are  “scaming” Labor time for reprogramming the sensors under the windshield. 
 

in years past the average windshield replacement cost was under $500 bucks which was my compressivedeductible 

same shite for me...had the bronco less than a month...guess those vertical windsheilds are a rock magnet...total bill was $1200...me $250 deductible...it was funny though...car had to be recalibrated, Ihad to ask if the Tech  could drive stick....lol....

[2005Explorer]

3 hours ago, Deanh said:

same shite for me...had the bronco less than a month...guess those vertical windsheilds are a rock magnet...total bill was $1200...me $250 deductible...it was funny though...car had to be recalibrated, Ihad to ask if the Tech  could drive stick....lol....

The rake of the windshield must really make a difference. I never had even one rock chip after 3 years on my 2019 Ranger. I haven't had one on my 2022 Ranger either. Knock on wood of course. lol

[silvrsvt]

7 hours ago, 2005Explorer said:

The rake of the windshield must really make a difference.

It does, the Wrangler has the same issue. 

[fordmantpw]

Our Escape windshield was a rock magnet.  At least 3 repairs, then a replacement 3 days before we traded it (which was free because the insurance's claim system was down at that time so they waived the deductible due to our hassle).  All in 28k miles!

[Rick73]

On 1/3/2024 at 10:45 AM, dmpaul said:

I agree with this quote: " America's EV plan needs to lean into what these cars do well: short daily trips that can be taken in small, affordable cars. People who frequently take long trips can take advantage of hybrid cars. "

As city and commuting cars with fewer passengers and lower required range, electric vehicles lend themselves perfectly to downsizing if intended as second or third cars; except of course for safety issue.  Other than safety concerns, price would have to be low enough to attract buyers to purchase as an additional vehicle, not as a replacement for conventional ICE or HEV in my opinion.

 

Large BEV are presently too expensive for mass adoption, as confirmed by median $186K household income for BEV buyers.  Large BEVs also have much greater impact on electric grid infrastructure so not great in that respect either.  Tiny affordable BEV didn’t catch on either, not even as second or third cars, probably because of safety concerns.  That leaves middle ground of most efficient BEVs large enough to seem relatively safe, which presently are the most successful, the Tesla Model Y and 3, now accounting for 97% of Tesla sales (according to one report).  Tesla expensive models are pretty much unimportant in sales.  Tesla followers believe the smaller and cheaper Model “2” will hit the sweet spot between affordability and buyer acceptance to be adopted in mass.

 

The small new Fiat 500e should test the lower limits of acceptable size buyers will consider.  It’s large enough to commute in, or as a city car, but $32,500 starting price may still be too high as an additional car rather than as a replacement for an existing ICE, which I don’t believe most buyers will consider it as.  With only 162 City and 149 Combined range (even lower highway) out of 42 kWh battery, no buyer taking road trips will seriously consider it.  It’s strictly a City/Commuter car.

[rmc523]

21 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I had my windshield replaced on my Bronco, didn’t even make the first payment yet, and it was $700 bucks after my deductible! I really think that they are  “scaming” Labor time for reprogramming the sensors under the windshield. 
 

in years past the average windshield replacement cost was under $500 bucks which was my compressivedeductible 

 

I had to have mine replaced after they broke it when reinstalling it for that recall a while back.  I was annoyed, as I had a UV tint on it that I still haven't had a chance to replace.

[silvrsvt]

2 hours ago, Rick73 said:

The small new Fiat 500e should test the lower limits of acceptable size buyers will consider.  It’s large enough to commute in, or as a city car, but $32,500 starting price may still be too high as an additional car rather than as a replacement for an existing ICE, which I don’t believe most buyers will consider it as.  With only 162 City and 149 Combined range (even lower highway) out of 42 kWh battery, no buyer taking road trips will seriously consider it.  It’s strictly a City/Commuter car.

 

The gas powered 500 was DOA in North America, I'd expect more of the same with the EV version 

 

The "smallest" car that would acceptable is something roughly the same size/form factor as the Chevy Trailblazer or Trax for North America-small enough but still enough space/room to do stuff with it. 

[DeluxeStang]

20 hours ago, 2005Explorer said:

The fact is automobile prices are rising much faster than wages are increasing. This coupled with the fact many automakers are trying to exit the affordable vehicle categories because they are low profit makes things even tougher for middle class consumers to buy new vehicles. Public transportation isn't really an option in some places, but if new vehicle prices keep rising at the rate we've seen over the last 2-3 years people will be quickly priced out.

One way to look at it is the current revenue generated for ongoing sales is always being used to fund the development of future products. Car brands are spending nearly unheard of sums of money to develop upcoming electric offerings. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if brands have have to go nuts on current pricing to secure additional funding for the very capital intensive process of making a wide array of new platforms. Ford was committed to investing 50 billion dollars into making new EVs a few years ago, that's a massive sum of money, even if ford has reduced their budget as of late. It needs to come from somewhere, like current customers.  Once Ford starts to roll out their second generation EVs on a new, competitive, and far more efficient platform, I expect we'll see prices start to stabilize. 

 

I could be completely wrong about this, but I predict Ford would push out their high profit, high volume second gen offerings like t3 and their 3 rows in an effort to break even on their investment as soon as possible. Towards the later half of the decade, I expect too see more affordable offerings that undercut the prices we're seeing today. 

 

BORG said Ford was working on a few affordable EVs on CE1, Ford's affordable platform that's different to GE2 and TE1. He mentioned a small utility and truck coming around 2027/28, probably maverick and whatever is replacing the escape. Also stating we'd get 5 EVs in Oakville, a mix of cars and SUVs, but he's only mentioned the two three rows, so the other three models are a mystery. 

Edited January 4 by DeluxeStang

[DeluxeStang]

37 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

The gas powered 500 was DOA in North America, I'd expect more of the same with the EV version 

 

The "smallest" car that would acceptable is something roughly the same size/form factor as the Chevy Trailblazer or Trax for North America-small enough but still enough space/room to do stuff with it. 

Yeah, most buyers see a small hatchback, they expect a small price to correspond with it. Unfortunately, mini and fiat don't seem to understand this, mini especially. 

[silvrsvt]

12 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

Yeah, most buyers see a small hatchback, they expect a small price to correspond with it. Unfortunately, mini and fiat don't seem to understand this, mini especially. 

 

But Mini has some fans in the US, but I haven't seen many of them over the past few years locally. 

 

I was thinking about pricing-I was looking at lower end vehicles like the Trailblazer-a pretty well done smaller vehicle that actually doesn't look cheap (actually my favorite Chevy product styling wise) and its like 30K...which isn't cheap

 

The Territory sold in Mexico works out to about 35K USD, which is supposed to be a cheap product for that market. 

I'm guessing people are just selecting to buy something and finance it out over a longer period...so these 50K EVs aren't that much more expense are are like the old 30K standard for a luxury vehicle