Gurgeh Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Note that even with recent pressure on Tesla stock it still has much higher valuation than other top-line technology companies (the so-called "Magnificent 7"), much less other automakers. https://fortune.com/2024/03/13/elon-musk-tesla-growth-company-no-growth-wells-fargo-downgrade/ "...The electric vehicle maker’s growth in its core markets has moderated, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan wrote in a note to clients Wednesday, as he downgraded the stock to the equivalent of a sell rating. Langan expects Tesla’s sales volumes to be flat this year and to fall in 2025. "Elon Musk’s company is a “growth company with no growth,” Langan wrote. He highlighted that sales volumes rose only 3% in the second half of 2023 from the first half, while prices fell 5%... "As a pure-play EV company with an eye-wateringly high valuation, Tesla shares have taken a serious hit. The stock has already fallen 29% this year through Tuesday’s close, placing it among the worst performers on the S&P 500 Index... "Even after the decline, the stock still trades at 55 times its forward earnings, compared to the average of about 31 for the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Price Return Index..." 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
92merc Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Ah man, RPREZ would have been all over this one... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, 92merc said: Ah man, RPREZ would have been all over this one... He'd being calling everyone an idiot and saying how the lack of growth, meant there was growth, or something like that. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 (edited) Meanwhile, over at Morgan Stanley... https://seekingalpha.com/news/4078912-automotive-stocks-upgraded-at-morgan-stanley-ford-is-top-pick " '...After years of peak spending on electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles, auto manufacturers are pivoting to capital efficiency and return,' Adam Jonas, analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a March 13 report. 'Over the past few months, we have seen auto demand trends strongly support our ICE [internal combustion engine] elongation thesis'... "Ford Motor (NYSE:F) is Morgan Stanley’s top stock pick among U.S. carmakers 'on the opportunity for capital discipline and shareholder return...' " Edited March 14 by Gurgeh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 "ICE Elongation Thesis." Only a Wall Street analyst could come up with something like that. And talk about Adam Jonas pivoting 180. Five years ago, he was the guy who was predicting that EV adoption would happen quickly and dramatically, like dominos falling over. Marketplace reality, as usual, had other ideas. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 5 hours ago, mackinaw said: "ICE Elongation Thesis." Only a Wall Street analyst could come up with something like that. And talk about Adam Jonas pivoting 180. Five years ago, he was the guy who was predicting that EV adoption would happen quickly and dramatically, like dominos falling over. Marketplace reality, as usual, had other ideas. Well let's cut them a little slack. You have to look at where the industry was a few years ago. Practically every EV being released was having waiting lists, they were being sold at a massive markup. So we can't really blame people from a few years ago making predictions driven by current trends that turned out to not be accurate long term. Hell, I was guilty of that myself. When Ford was expanding production of the lighting and mach-e, I thought they were going to be run away successes. I'd say they were still successful, just not to the degree I, and others, thought they would be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said: Well let's cut them a little slack....... Nope, I don't cut Wall Street any slack over their over-optimistic EV predictions. There's no way a bunch of NYC-based eggheads have any clue about what is actually happening in the world. And Jonas was the worst of them. I'm really enjoying seeing him backtrack now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 12 hours ago, DeluxeStang said: Well let's cut them a little slack. You have to look at where the industry was a few years ago. Practically every EV being released was having waiting lists, they were being sold at a massive markup. So we can't really blame people from a few years ago making predictions driven by current trends that turned out to not be accurate long term. Hell, I was guilty of that myself. When Ford was expanding production of the lighting and mach-e, I thought they were going to be run away successes. I'd say they were still successful, just not to the degree I, and others, thought they would be. Not if they looked at it realistically rather than "we want this to be the answer, so lets find data that supports it." They purposely ignored factors that affect the vast majority of the population that would negatively impact EV sales just to fit the mantra of EV sales will take over immediately. Also, going from relative 0 to where were at now was obviously going to be easier (massive growth rates) than shifting the entire industry/market overnight like they were predicting. It truly never made sense, even if they wanted it to. (Most) Tesla fans/buyers do not represent the industry as a whole - there's a lot of "Tesla can do no wrong" buyers there that doesn't translate to other brands. Edited March 15 by rmc523 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 11 hours ago, mackinaw said: Nope, I don't cut Wall Street any slack over their over-optimistic EV predictions. There's no way a bunch of NYC-based eggheads have any clue about what is actually happening in the world. And Jonas was the worst of them. I'm really enjoying seeing him backtrack now. Here is the thing-Wall Street is a self licking ice cream cone...I've seen this in the IT industry for the past 20 years...promises of a great leap forward (think Self driving cars,AI) all being oversold to increase stock prices of respective companies. When it comes to EVs, I wonder how much impact inflation, higher interest rates and drop in federal rebates recently have removed interest in EVs. I think at least 25% of the market that might have been interested in them went in a different direction because of that. You'll see flatter growth as time goes on instead of parabolic growth like we've had. Some states are rolling back their 2035 mandates, which find comical, because so much can change between now and then. Its just political flip flopping at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Once you get past the early adopters/Teslaphiles price is a huge factor - no different than ICE. When you go from an estimated $40k minus $7500 starting price to $60K no rebate you probably lose half your potential buyers just based on income and affordability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice-capades Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 27 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Here is the thing-Wall Street is a self licking ice cream cone...I've seen this in the IT industry for the past 20 years...promises of a great leap forward (think Self driving cars,AI) all being oversold to increase stock prices of respective companies. When it comes to EVs, I wonder how much impact inflation, higher interest rates and drop in federal rebates recently have removed interest in EVs. I think at least 25% of the market that might have been interested in them went in a different direction because of that. You'll see flatter growth as time goes on instead of parabolic growth like we've had. Some states are rolling back their 2035 mandates, which find comical, because so much can change between now and then. Its just political flip flopping at this point. Except it's a matter of tax credits, not rebates. Also have to wonder how many customers were able to utilize the tax credits and to what extent. Even so, I have to think that many of those that were able to take full advantage of the tax credits didn't need them and could afford the vehicle anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 3 hours ago, rmc523 said: Not if they looked at it realistically rather than "we want this to be the answer, so lets find data that supports it." They purposely ignored factors that affect the vast majority of the population that would negatively impact EV sales just to fit the mantra of EV sales will take over immediately. I agree with you there. What you're describing is called confirmation bias, it's seeking out information and data that supports your position to make it seem more credible, and it's a problem that goes both ways unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, ice-capades said: Except it's a matter of tax credits, not rebates. Also have to wonder how many customers were able to utilize the tax credits and to what extent. Even so, I have to think that many of those that were able to take full advantage of the tax credits didn't need them and could afford the vehicle anyway. Sadly, a lot of people view the credit as just that - knocking $7,500 (or whatever figure per manufacturer) off the sticker price, so they go in and realize that's not true, but rather the tax credit....that'll kill interest too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 50 minutes ago, rmc523 said: Sadly, a lot of people view the credit as just that - knocking $7,500 (or whatever figure per manufacturer) off the sticker price, so they go in and realize that's not true, but rather the tax credit....that'll kill interest too. But if you lease the mfr owns the vehicle and they give you the full credit in terms of subsidizing the lease. Thats one reason leases were so popular. But I never liked that because it was only a 2 or 3 year commitment from the customer. At least that’s how it used to work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 35 minutes ago, akirby said: But if you lease the mfr owns the vehicle and they give you the full credit in terms of subsidizing the lease. Thats one reason leases were so popular. But I never liked that because it was only a 2 or 3 year commitment from the customer. At least that’s how it used to work. Oh, didn't realize that was how it worked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 (edited) 18 hours ago, akirby said: But if you lease the mfr owns the vehicle and they give you the full credit in terms of subsidizing the lease. Thats one reason leases were so popular. But I never liked that because it was only a 2 or 3 year commitment from the customer. At least that’s how it used to work. Although, since we are talking about EVs here, it can make more sense than with an ICE product. With EV resale values often being a great unknown and with EV technology moving so fast, many new EV owners are logically choosing to put the resale risk on the manufacturer. In general, however, I agree. I don't particularly like leases -- only did one once, and in the end I ended up buying out the vehicle after 3 years so just should have stuck with a purchase. I like to be able to choose when I want to get into a new car rather than having to rush around worrying about the timing of the expiration of my lease. Edited March 16 by Gurgeh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 40 minutes ago, Gurgeh said: Although, since we are talking about EVs here, it can make more sense than with an ICE product. With EV resale values often being a great unknown and with EV technology moving so fast, many new EV owners are logically choosing to put the resale risk on the manufacturer. In general, however, I agree. I don't particularly like leases -- only did one once, and in the end I ended up buying out the vehicle after 3 years so just should have stuck with a purchase. I like to be able to choose when I want to get into a new car rather than having to rush around worrying about the timing of the expiration of my lease. Let me clarify. I don’t like giving the full rebate to someone who only leases for 2-3 years. No issue with leasing in general as a way to finance a new vehicle every 3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice-capades Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 On 3/16/2024 at 9:14 AM, akirby said: Let me clarify. I don’t like giving the full rebate to someone who only leases for 2-3 years. No issue with leasing in general as a way to finance a new vehicle every 3 years. But it's that fact that lowers the lease payment and encourages customers to lease, instead of purchasing, which delivers more vehicles for Ford. In addition, Ford Credit leases, in many or most states, include state property taxes which reduce an expense that customers would otherwise have separately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Here is how it works now https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/ev-tax-credit-electric-vehicle-tax-credit Quote In 2024, taxpayers can opt to either claim the tax credit on their federal returns or transfer the credit to an eligible dealership. How to claim the federal EV tax credit Claiming the clean vehicle tax credit on your taxes To claim the credit, taxpayers can file Form 8936 when they file their federal income taxes. The credit is nonrefundable, which means it can lower or eliminate your tax liability, but you won't get any overage of the credit refunded once your liability hits zero. You also won't be able to carry over any excess amount to offset future taxes [6] Some fine print: According to the agency, you generally can only claim the clean vehicle tax credit for the tax year the vehicle was delivered to you, not necessarily the year it was purchased [7] . This means, for example, that if you bought a qualifying EV in 2023 but won't receive it until 2024, you must claim the credit on your 2024 tax return (filed in 2025). Transferring the EV tax credit to a dealer Taxpayers who transfer the credit to the dealership for a direct discount still need to follow a few tax rules. Transferring can result in an immediate discount on your purchase rather than a reduction in your tax liability when you file the following year. However, it does not do away with having to report your purchase on your taxes. If you transfer the EV credit to the dealer, you’ll also need to fill out Form 8936 when you file your return for that year to report on your election and to provide the agency with your VIN. And buyer beware — if you take a rebate but are not eligible for it, you’ll be required to pay the IRS back when you file your tax return [1] The transferring it to a dealership is new I think and would be better for more folks that are limited with amount of taxes they owe, since its not a positive break, only eliminates what you owe, instead of being a credit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, silvrsvt said: Here is how it works now https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/ev-tax-credit-electric-vehicle-tax-credit The transferring it to a dealership is new I think and would be better for more folks that are limited with amount of taxes they owe, since its not a positive break, only eliminates what you owe, instead of being a credit. Huh? It still works the same as before. It’s still a tax credit that reduces the amount of tax you have to pay. The only difference is you can get it at purchase time as a discount on the vehicle sale instead of waiting until you file taxes the next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 13 hours ago, akirby said: Huh? It still works the same as before. It’s still a tax credit that reduces the amount of tax you have to pay. The only difference is you can get it at purchase time as a discount on the vehicle sale instead of waiting until you file taxes the next year. That's a huge difference - it means you could get the full amount off of a car, whereas you may only get a few hundred (or some portion) of the rebate on your own taxes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 17 minutes ago, rmc523 said: That's a huge difference - it means you could get the full amount off of a car, whereas you may only get a few hundred (or some portion) of the rebate on your own taxes. No no no. It doesn’t change the amount of credit you get. Think of it like a payday loan. Govt loans you $7500 and you have to eligible for and claim the entire $7500 on your subsequent return. If not you must pay back the difference. Let’s say you ask for the $7500 credit on a new purchase, but come tax time you only have $4K in taxes owed. You can only claim the $4K credit and you have to pay back the extra $3500. Or worse - you get the credit but don’t qualify for any of it at tax time. You have to pay back the entire $7500. It only changes the timing of when you get the credit not the amount. And it’s still based on your taxes owed for that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 I should also point out that taxes owed means how much you owe the govt in taxes for the year. Not how much you have to pay or get back when you file the return which is based on withholding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, rmc523 said: That's a huge difference - it means you could get the full amount off of a car, whereas you may only get a few hundred (or some portion) of the rebate on your own taxes. No I was wrong: Quote If you transfer the EV credit to the dealer, you’ll also need to fill out Form 8936 when you file your return for that year to report on your election and to provide the agency with your VIN. And buyer beware — if you take a rebate but are not eligible for it, you’ll be required to pay the IRS back when you file your tax return So basically if you owe the government $500 bucks for the year, you'd only get $500 back instead of $7000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 (edited) 25 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: So basically if you owe the government $500 bucks for the year, you'd only get $500 back instead of $7000 Precisely. And you can’t claim the other $7000 later. You get the $500 credit and that’s it. So in that case if you told the dealer you were eligible for $7500 and got the $7500 credit on your purchase, you now owe the government $7000. And again this is based on taxes you owe for the year not based on how much you have to pay or get back when you file. Edited March 18 by akirby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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