So when are we gonna know when Ford has turned the Corner?

[silvrsvt]

Heres an interesting premise, with all the negative news coming out of Ford these days, when will we truly know when Ford has finally "turned" the corner and is out of the mess its in? Just look at what happened to DCX with the LX cars...and where they are today.

 

Bad thing is, I think we still have another 2 years of shitty performance to deal with...if they make it that far.

[Catalepsy]

I think the general mood in the automotive press is that they are eager for Ford to fail. I'm not going to say itis anti-Americanism, but it is the general vulture-like characteristics of journalists in general. That's a good guage of Ford's status. When the vultures are no longer circling, I think you can declare Ford has made that turn.

 

It is going to take more than a couple of years of good sales figures, quality and good press for that to happen.

[bolita]

Heres an interesting premise, with all the negative news coming out of Ford these days, when will we truly know when Ford has finally "turned" the corner and is out of the mess its in? Just look at what happened to DCX with the LX cars...and where they are today.

 

Bad thing is, I think we still have another 2 years of shitty performance to deal with...if they make it that far.

 

My guess is that it will take Ford's NA oeprations at least 2 years before the effects of the turn around plan become evident.

 

Of course that Ford will make until then..raising all that cash guarantees a lot more time to burn off billions. I really don't think that the numbers 2007 on will be as bad as 2006.

[JETSOLVER]

About twenty minutes after they say they are hiring again for a new plant/third shift somewhere in North America.

 

Or alternativly, saying that they will remove the bankers lein on damm near everything they have.

[ANTAUS]

I believe it's all about perceptions that consumers, and journalists might posess.

 

Just when we see some light at the end of the tunnel, then "Way Forward" has another version...I think we are on Version 4.1 by now. Then when we think that'll work, then we have this massive loan package they are putting together.

 

I think most of us are hoping that a specific car, will be the proof that Ford is listening to customers, but are they just responding to enthusiasts. There's more to a company than just products, even though that plays a big part.

 

Quality, perception, re-structuring, consumer satisfaction, reliability, are all major things to consider. It's a fine formula of balancing all that, and people are expecting it to occur in, hmm 2 years? We heard that...4 years ago, look where they are at.

 

Suceeding doesn't mean, being the top seller, but rather, having a diverse product plan that incorporates all the above attributes in a specific manner, profittably.

 

Do I think they quite "Get it?" Hmmm I think Ford is "Almost" there. Unfortunately after each new product release, I revert that statement. It's like, for every ONE good product (The Edge), they release a mediocre one (Escape). So overall, I would say my expectations are lukewarm. I'm still not seeing "BOLD" moves in product, yet, BOLD moves in restructuring and financing which is where it really counts.

 

Once you establish a solid foundation, they you build the walls. Unfortunately for Ford, the ground it's built on is sinking quicker than the cement is drying.

 

I still don't see anything positive till 2010 at least.

[Blue II]

I think the general mood in the automotive press is that they are eager for Ford to fail. I'm not going to say itis anti-Americanism, but it is the general vulture-like characteristics of journalists in general. That's a good guage of Ford's status. When the vultures are no longer circling, I think you can declare Ford has made that turn.

 

It is going to take more than a couple of years of good sales figures, quality and good press for that to happen.

 

Is that inclusive to the vultures on this forum?

[xr7g428]

When the stock price climbs steadily you will know it is getting better. The improvement in the business out look will be priced into the stock ahead of the actual performance of the company.

[jpd80]

A cynical person would think that a few well informed people are going to make a huge profit in under two years.

1. Could it be Ford accentuated its losses knowing that would drive stock prices down?

2. Who is buying up the stocks being dumped by everyone else?

3. When stocks are in the "right hands" watch for a massive turnaround.

[xr7g428]

A cynical person would think that a few well informed people are going to make a huge profit in under two years.

1. Could it be Ford accentuated its losses knowing that would drive stock prices down?

2. Who is buying up the stocks being dumped by everyone else?

3. When stocks are in the "right hands" watch for a massive turnaround.

 

 

Right now, a share of Ford is about $7.25. Yet Ford has, right now, cash in the amount of $22.00+ per share. I would pay $7 for $22. I think that Ford may be planning to buy the outstanding stock for around $10 to $12 per share. That would make the company private. They would then take the company public again (after they get back to profitability) with a new offering at at least double if not triple that amount. I would like to be on the inside of that deal...

 

There has been a lot of discussion about whether going private is the right thing to do, but the real discussion is whether it is the smart thing to do. Smart = money.

[kyle]

When are they going to bottom out and start to rebound? Very good question.

 

My guess (which is all it is!) is not until at least 2010-at the earliest. I base that on the products that are in the pipeline and their recent history.

 

I also think it will take at least 3-4 years for mulally's team to start showing results. There is going to be many people leaving the company in the next 6 months or so, and I am not talking about the layoffs-I am thinking more in senior leadership who do not buy into mulally's direction.

 

As his team is put together it will take awhile for products to start showing up that can really make a difference.

[DCK]

By 2010,

 

 

If they haven't by then then they will be bankrupt by 2012. Atleast the NA operations will be.

[ZanatWork]

The turnaround (or obvious doom) will be evident when the next generation of vehicles is here...2009, 2010ish. The current crop isn't getting it done, regardless how many small victories (Mustang, CD3s) Ford wins lately. What has to happen for the next two years is a period of ongoing quality improvement, more competitive upgrades (3.5 motor for Fusion, new diesel for F150/Expy), and just generally pulling their game up overall to a higher level.

 

It appears 2009 is sort of "the reckoning" at this point. The new F-150, Mustang, Five Hundred, Focus, and others are due right about then...and none of them can afford to be anything like a halfway measure. By 2011, the whole line should be a full generation or more from where it is now. That will either be a better day for Ford...or a real sign of the end.

[kyle]

It appears 2009 is sort of "the reckoning" at this point. The new F-150, Mustang, Five Hundred, Focus, and others are due right about then...and none of them can afford to be anything like a halfway measure. By 2011, the whole line should be a full generation or more from where it is now. That will either be a better day for Ford...or a real sign of the end.

 

 

I agree with the pivotal year being 2009. Fields will have his stamp on things by then-if those products come out and have the same old look then it will be several more years and possible bankruptcy.

 

The old quote goes "I will know it when I see it" kind of plays into when they have turned that corner and until that time goes they are going to be struggling for quite sometime-there is just way to much competition out there.

[BORG]

We are a long way from that corner, and it has been getting farther away for the past few years despite a very concerted effort to catch it. I think Ford is much farther along the way on turning its operations around than it is on turning it's market presence around. Ford's biggest struggle remains product and the leadership developing new product.

Edited December 12, 2006 by BORG

[g48150]

Here's a quick one that probably belongs in the Funny Farm.

 

How are we gonna know when Ford has turned the Corner?

 

When someone else is stationed in the President of the Americas position!!!

 

*rimshot*

 

:boring:

 

 

I know, I know...

[mackinaw]

While I'm hardly a fan of Wall Street analysts, David Healy, of Burnham Securities, says that Ford is now at bottom and will spend the next few years in the "trough" before rebounding. My guess is we're looking at 2009 before we see a measurable improvement.

[BORG]

Ford has and continues to make a lot of missteps along the way, and until it fixes its fundamental cultural problems, we are going to continue to see a lot of demolition before the path is clear for growth. Ford can't have a product-based turn around until agrees on a healthy and sustainable development process. Right now, Ford is still very dependent on salvaging its existing products for its future. Of all the manufacturers, Ford's outlook is the most dubious. I use to be optimistic, but I am very concerned that Ford can't survive another 5 years of cost cutting and nothing more.

[bec5150]

How will I know? I think I have already seen it with product and, to a certain extent, I have seen it with folks buying this new product. Two friends of mine have traded for a Mustang, one of them was driving Honda. I don't know if this is a trend but it must account for something.

 

I also think I am going to need to see some changes at the dealer level. That would also be an indicator.

 

Bottom line is it literally took decades to get to this point and it's going to take a long time to get out of the hole even of Ford does everything right. I have my fingers crossed!!

[LincolnFan]

When they build the Continental.

[bb62]

I met with a Ford marketing manager who indicated a few things to me:

 

. Likely share for Ford long Term is about 8%

. The majority of ford customers are on the "last time buyer" program. I.E. Ford is unsuccessful at pulling in young buyers.

. Marketing studies have shown that ford is no long one of the brands most people are even considering (unlike even 5 years ago).

 

I don't think Ford is going to survive.

[swenson88]

I met with a Ford marketing manager who indicated a few things to me:

 

. Likely share for Ford long Term is about 8%

. The majority of ford customers are on the "last time buyer" program. I.E. Ford is unsuccessful at pulling in young buyers.

. Marketing studies have shown that ford is no long one of the brands most people are even considering (unlike even 5 years ago).

 

I don't think Ford is going to survive.

 

 

That's where excellent product needs to come in. All those problems can easily be corrected with excellent product. Only problem is that's not what I've seen lately. I've seen middle-of-the-pack product that doesn't stand out much. That isn't going to solve any problems.

[TheLemon]

So when are we gonna know when Ford has turned the Corner?

 

Never! Ford won't be able to turn the corner due to a defective tie rod...

 

ha ha ha ha ha!

 

Ok.... Joke's over.... I'm out of here!

 

:happy feet:

[Biker16]

That's where excellent product needs to come in. All those problems can easily be corrected with excellent product. Only problem is that's not what I've seen lately. I've seen middle-of-the-pack product that doesn't stand out much. That isn't going to solve any problems.

 

 

one correction products

 

not product.

 

we need a alot of new product.

[grbeck]

That's where excellent product needs to come in. All those problems can easily be corrected with excellent product. Only problem is that's not what I've seen lately. I've seen middle-of-the-pack product that doesn't stand out much. That isn't going to solve any problems.

 

Coming up with excellent product that really stands out is easier said than done.

 

The market is so brutally competitive and there are virtually no bad vehicles out there. It is more like, good, better, best. And there are so many entries in most segments. Just do a run down of all the vehicles in the family sedan segment.

 

At this point, I don't know if even excellent vehicles are enough. Ford has to get people out of their Hondas and Toyotas. Easier said than done, especially since a very large portion of buyers under the age of 50 feel no particular urge or obligation to check out what Ford (and GM and Chrysler) have to offer.

 

For example, the new Saturn Aura seems like a very nice car. Distinctive styling, good build quality and GM's very good 3.6 V-6 in the XR versions. But the car's sales rate hasn't been all that hot...it doesn't even seem to be matching GM's rather modest projections. The only one that I've seen outside of a Saturn dealer lot is one at the local rental car parking lot. It is looking a lot like the 2006 Oldsmobile Intrigue to me...

[swenson88]

one correction products

 

not product.

 

we need a alot of new product.

 

Well, in the sense I was using it "product" was basically plural, so yes, we need many excellent "products".

 

Coming up with excellent product that really stands out is easier said than done.

 

The market is so brutally competitive and there are virtually no bad vehicles out there. It is more like, good, better, best. And there are so many entries in most segments. Just do a run down of all the vehicles in the family sedan segment.

 

At this point, I don't know if even excellent vehicles are enough. Ford has to get people out of their Hondas and Toyotas. Easier said than done, especially since a very large portion of buyers under the age of 50 feel no particular urge or obligation to check out what Ford (and GM and Chrysler) have to offer.

 

For example, the new Saturn Aura seems like a very nice car. Distinctive styling, good build quality and GM's very good 3.6 V-6 in the XR versions. But the car's sales rate hasn't been all that hot...it doesn't even seem to be matching GM's rather modest projections. The only one that I've seen outside of a Saturn dealer lot is one at the local rental car parking lot. It is looking a lot like the 2006 Oldsmobile Intrigue to me...

 

 

I agree. Getting people out of a Honda or Toyota and into a Ford is not going to happen quickly. These people have been happy with their imports and have little or no reason to abandon them. It will take at least a decade of absolutely top-notch reliability to get them to even consider a domestic vehicle, or they'll have to fall in love with a domestic car and not be able to help themselves. To succeed, Ford needs to accomplish both counts - build vehicles that are as reliable or better yet MORE reliable than the Japanese and make them drop-dead gorgeous to boot. That's a hell of a tall order.

 

As for the Aura, well what the hell was GM thinking by not offering a 4-cyl in a midsize sedan? Saturn's not a luxury brand where hp is more prized than mpg, they're a mediocre mainstream brand pretty much known for ease of purchase and plastic body panels. The plastic panels are disappearing, my guess is the sales approach does, too. So, now Saturn is to succeed as an upscale brand? How so? You can't just decided a brand is something else, when people think of Saturn they don't think of "upscale" or refined, that's going to take several years to change. The Aura needs a 4-cyl for any sort of respectable sales numbers, V6's in general make up the minority of sales in the midsize market.