Lincoln Product Plan: Hits, no Halo Vehicles

[NickF1011]

Yes it would and that's why it's the only viable scenario for keeping the Expy and or Navi. But with a shrinking market the business case is probably slim so they have to decide if it's worth keeping at all.

 

Is it shrinking because the product in the segment is bad or is it shrinking because there aren't buyers in the segment anymore? Look at all the fullsize luxury SUVs on the market today. None of them are particularly outstanding in my mind, and the one that is probably closest, the Escalade, actually still sells relatively well. It's not like there aren't enough buyers out there willing to shell out $60,000+ for large vehicles. People do it for pickups all the time and then throw caps on them.

[akirby]

Is it shrinking because the product in the segment is bad or is it shrinking because there aren't buyers in the segment anymore? Look at all the fullsize luxury SUVs on the market today. None of them are particularly outstanding in my mind, and the one that is probably closest, the Escalade, actually still sells relatively well. It's not like there aren't enough buyers out there willing to shell out $60,000+ for large vehicles. People do it for pickups all the time and then throw caps on them.

 

The market shrank because of better alternatives in midsized crossovers, the availability of nice 4 door F150s and rising fuel prices. People who bought them but didn't really need the extra towing capacity or extra adult seating downsized to smaller more fuel efficient vehicles. The only ones left in the market are the ones who truly need the towing or seating capacity or people who just like big vehicles and don't care about fuel costs and I don't see that changing.

 

There is definitely still a market - it's just a lot smaller than it used to be and it would be difficult to justify a one-off platform going forward which is what happened with the Expedition when it went to IRS.

[NLPRacing]

And somehow a new Navigator based on the Expedition based on the F150 wouldn't share these same characteristics? (especially the bolded one)

 

Yes it would, but the MKS way outsells the current Navigator. If an "all new" F150 based Navigator comes out and it's as mediocre as the "all new" 2007 Navigator and doesn't sell any better than the current Navigator, then it's not worth wasting any developmental money on, IMHO.

 

Well, I wouldn't say the lack of IRS would be a huge problem, other than probably killing the option of fold-flat 3rd row seats, but that has never been a setback for Navi's biggest competitor, the Escalade. And I don't think Ford ever said all Lincolns will all get 100% unique tophats, only that they would get unique sheet metal. Think Escalade vs Tahoe, not MKT vs Flex. There's only so many things you can change on a fullsize SUV without getting some abomination like that fullsize Infiniti barge.

 

Taking away its most unique feature (fold-flat 3rd row seats) when compared to the Escalade can't help sales. I just don't want to see any more money wasted on updates reminiscent of the 2007 Navigator which I think we can all agree was terrible and a step in the wrong direction. When I start to think Ford is doing something right with Lincoln (MKR Concept, MKX, MKS, MKZ, etc.), I come back to the ones they have done wrong (MKT & Navigator) and just hope they learn from those mistakes and move in the right direction.

 

BTW - The new Infiniti QX56 is based on the Nissan Patrol, not the Armada.

[akirby]

When I start to think Ford is doing something right with Lincoln (MKR Concept, MKX, MKS, MKZ, etc.), I come back to the ones they have done wrong (MKT & Navigator) and just hope they learn from those mistakes and move in the right direction.

 

The current Lincoln team had nothing to do with the MKT or the Navigator. What I've seen of the MKZ so far is enough to tell me they will get it right or they won't do it at all.

[papilgee4evaeva]

Yes it would, but the MKS way outsells the current Navigator. If an "all new" F150 based Navigator comes out and it's as mediocre as the "all new" 2007 Navigator and doesn't sell any better than the current Navigator, then it's not worth wasting any developmental money on, IMHO.

The current Lincoln team had nothing to do with the MKT or the Navigator. What I've seen of the MKZ so far is enough to tell me they will get it right or they won't do it at all.

 

(Multi-)Quoted for truth. I don't think mediocre design has a place in the studios anymore.

[ANTAUS]

Navi has suffered because of many issues, the typical one being left on the vine to rot, this month it had about 500 unit sales? Even the fugly MKT sold more. And its a shame considering the name recognition. Lets not forget the Navigator is the reason that everyone rushed to market with their tarted up Maxi-SUVs, I remember the first generation Caddy Marmalade was laughable but competition improved overall and Ford doesn't seem to want to invest much on it and I can understand the reasons why too. It will be interesting to see what they make of it. Although the current generation i think is the ugliest, (previous one to that I preffered) I agree about the squircle intrumentation, the engine is getting long on the tooth as many other things are already. Its a shame though.

[jpd80]

Given the $1 billion budget over seven vehicles, the chances of a new RWD Lincoln of any description are practically Zero.

All future Lincolns most likely will be heavily disguised Ford originators with different top hats and trims, maybe unique engine combos..

[J-150]

 

 

Sounds like what happened to a certain kitty-cat platform.

 

But they made for great second hand taxis

[papilgee4evaeva]

But they made for great second hand taxis

 

And after that, the third-hand owners were their best customers.

[PREMiERdrum]

And after that, the third-hand owners were their best customers.

 

...and our "best" BONers! :bag:

[NickF1011]

Yes it would, but the MKS way outsells the current Navigator. If an "all new" F150 based Navigator comes out and it's as mediocre as the "all new" 2007 Navigator and doesn't sell any better than the current Navigator, then it's not worth wasting any developmental money on, IMHO.

 

 

 

Taking away its most unique feature (fold-flat 3rd row seats) when compared to the Escalade can't help sales. I just don't want to see any more money wasted on updates reminiscent of the 2007 Navigator which I think we can all agree was terrible and a step in the wrong direction. When I start to think Ford is doing something right with Lincoln (MKR Concept, MKX, MKS, MKZ, etc.), I come back to the ones they have done wrong (MKT & Navigator) and just hope they learn from those mistakes and move in the right direction.

 

What can't help sales is discontinuing it entirely. The Escalade still handily outsells Navigator despite the lack of fold-flat seats, so it's obviously not a deal-breaker for buyers in this segment.

 

The only real failure in the 2007 redesign was that it was ridiculously ugly. The lack of any updates since then have only made matters worse.

 

BTW - The new Infiniti QX56 is based on the Nissan Patrol, not the Armada.

 

Eh, it still demonstrates the perils you can encounter when trying too hard to make something look different than the vehicle it is based upon. It looks very little like the Patrol either. Different for different's sake isn't always the right direction to go.

[NickF1011]

The market shrank because of better alternatives in midsized crossovers, the availability of nice 4 door F150s and rising fuel prices. People who bought them but didn't really need the extra towing capacity or extra adult seating downsized to smaller more fuel efficient vehicles. The only ones left in the market are the ones who truly need the towing or seating capacity or people who just like big vehicles and don't care about fuel costs and I don't see that changing.

 

There is definitely still a market - it's just a lot smaller than it used to be and it would be difficult to justify a one-off platform going forward which is what happened with the Expedition when it went to IRS.

 

Your arguments against the fullsize SUV buyer are the same ones that can be said to rail against the recreational fullsize pickup buyer, yet there are still a ton of those. I personally think the main reason the pickup has remained more popular for recreational buyers is because they have been kept far more up to date than their fullsize SUV counterparts.

[silvrsvt]

Your arguments against the fullsize SUV buyer are the same ones that can be said to rail against the recreational fullsize pickup buyer, yet there are still a ton of those. I personally think the main reason the pickup has remained more popular for recreational buyers is because they have been kept far more up to date than their fullsize SUV counterparts.

 

I dunno about that.....the F series hit a peak of 939,511 units in 2004, now it only sold 543K units last year...

[NickF1011]

I dunno about that.....the F series hit a peak of 939,511 units in 2004, now it only sold 543K units last year...

 

That's a pretty big "only", don't you think? Certainly bigger than the "only" that keeps the Mustang around.

Edited August 16, 2012 by NickF1011

[silvrsvt]

That's a pretty big "only", don't you think? Certainly bigger than the "only" that keeps the Mustang around.

 

Well all depends...the Mustang on average has been selling in the 113-160K range up until the Great Recession kicked off in 2008....and its sales took a major hit, with it selling in the 70-90K range, but it also has 2 other products its directly competing with during the same periond

 

The F-series was being built at 4-5 different plants and was selling in the 800-900K range during the same period and now Ford has only 3 plants building, and only sold 583K units last year and the lowest point was in 2009, with only 413K units sold.

 

I'd say the F-series has taken a bigger hit overall then the Mustang in the sale numbers game as a percentage.

[akirby]

Your arguments against the fullsize SUV buyer are the same ones that can be said to rail against the recreational fullsize pickup buyer, yet there are still a ton of those. I personally think the main reason the pickup has remained more popular for recreational buyers is because they have been kept far more up to date than their fullsize SUV counterparts.

 

I covered that when I said "The only ones left in the market are the ones who truly need the towing or seating capacity or people who just like big vehicles and don't care about fuel costs and I don't see that changing."

 

 

That's a pretty big "only", don't you think? Certainly bigger than the "only" that keeps the Mustang around.

 

The point was that a lot of recreational F150 buyers DID leave the fold for other vehicles, just like a lot of recreational SUV buyers left the fold.

 

A lot of people stopped buying full-sized trucks AND SUVs for the same reason. The full-sized truck market is still huge because there aren't many good alternatives for folks who really need a truck.

But I can get minivans and crossovers with 3 row seating and modest towing to replace a lot of former Expedition buyers.

[NickF1011]

I'd say the F-series has taken a bigger hit overall then the Mustang in the sale numbers game as a percentage.

 

It could afford to.

[NickF1011]

A lot of people stopped buying full-sized trucks AND SUVs for the same reason. The full-sized truck market is still huge because there aren't many good alternatives for folks who really need a truck.

But I can get minivans and crossovers with 3 row seating and modest towing to replace a lot of former Expedition buyers.

 

There are still a TON of pickup buyers out there who buy them and don't really need them. Give them some viable fullsize SUV options and I think some would naturally migrate there.

[SoonerLS]

I'd say the F-series has taken a bigger hit overall then the Mustang in the sale numbers game as a percentage.

It took a bigger hit, but it's still far and away Ford's biggest seller, and, IIRC, its sales figures have been stable to rising since the crash in '08. How many of Ford's passenger cars does it take to equal the sales numbers of the F-Series? For that matter, does anyone else (aside from GM trucks) have anything that comes close to the sales of the F-Series?

 

Nick's point still stands--the F-Series is a huge seller, even if it's "only" selling 5/9ths as much as it was in its peak sales year.

[NickF1011]

For that matter, does anyone else (aside from GM trucks) have anything that comes close to the sales of the F-Series?

 

Camry is closing in...

[akirby]

There are still a TON of pickup buyers out there who buy them and don't really need them. Give them some viable fullsize SUV options and I think some would naturally migrate there.

 

If they're already buying 4 door F150s then they obviously don't need 3rd row seats so why would they suddenly switch to a full sized SUV? It's not going to drive much better or get better fuel economy and the actual tow rating would be less due to the extra weight of the enclosed rear.

 

And even if they did move from the F150 to the Expedition that's not a net increase in sales for Ford so why add the extra expense of making a totally new model?

 

There is enough of a market to continue the Expy and Navi on a more common F150 platform. No doubt about that. The question is whether the ROI is worth the investment or if that money is better spent elsewhere.

[silvrsvt]

If they're already buying 4 door F150s then they obviously don't need 3rd row seats so why would they suddenly switch to a full sized SUV? It's not going to drive much better or get better fuel economy and the actual tow rating would be less due to the extra weight of the enclosed rear.

 

If anything, a 4 door F-150 is more "flexible" then a full sized SUV, since a pickup bed is more useful then a SUV Cargo area.

 

Nick's point still stands--the F-Series is a huge seller, even if it's "only" selling 5/9ths as much as it was in its peak sales year.

 

That wasn't the point! Of course the F-series is the most important product they make, but at the same time, all I'm pointing out is that it has taken a big hit because of fuel economy concerns and generally crappy economic times...which has also affected Mustang sales to a lesser extent. Ford going to lose alot more $$ selling only 500K vs 800k+ F-series vs 140K vs 90K Mustangs a year

[NickF1011]

I see an awful lot of F-150's with caps over the beds. Kinda my point there. And let's also point out that GM continues to sell quite a good number of Tahoes and Suburbans.

[akirby]

If anything, a 4 door F-150 is more "flexible" then a full sized SUV, since a pickup bed is more useful then a SUV Cargo area.

 

Not if you have 8 adults to carry.

[akirby]

And let's also point out that GM continues to sell quite a good number of Tahoes and Suburbans.

 

Do you disagree that the entire fullsized SUV market has gone down dramatically over the last 10 years? That's all we're saying. Not that there is no market at all.