New body style Taurus or not

[Fgts]

 

 

All carmakers will be exiting the large sedan market before the end of the decade,

 

Think GM, FCA and Toyota may have a word with that.

 

it's a deceased/obsolete segment effectively replaced by mid sizers or crossovers and is shrinking dramatically in a peak market (so it doesn't get better from here).

The same case can be made for bof/SUVs and minivans. It really depends on ROI.

 

Midsize cars have also peaked so that segment will be facing declines in earnings and volume as that segment also quickly transitions to crossovers.

 

Agree but as with bof/SUV and minivans depends on ROI. I don't see midsize cars going nowhere though they will take a backseat to CUVs.

Ford is already scaling back future Fusion product by eliminating production at FRAP at the end of the current product cycle. I don't think there is anyway to overemphasize the permanent change over to new nameplate crossovers from top to bottom, it really is a complete form factor change for mainstream vehicles.

 

Yes

I still think people see Crossovers like they view SUVs from decades ago, they now come in a huge blurred array of sizes and options with plenty of cost effective and fuel-sipping options that won't be threatened by fluctuations in gas prices or the economy. Effectively, nobody is going "back" to anything, they never do and they certainly don't have to now.

While CUVs will be a majority of the market, pullout and ignoring segments isn't the way to go. If R&D and ROI not there anymore then the vehicle can be truly dropped. Ford offering a cramped fullsize then complain about "the market is dead " don't fly but they'll be others to sale those abandoned buyers.

[silvrsvt]

He's saying literally just stretch a Fusion by adding a few inches to the back seat, rather than the completely different body/interior of the Chinese Taurus.

But you would need completely new side stampings to do this...which are the most expensive IIRC because it's a single press/piece.

[rmc523]

But you would need completely new side stampings to do this...which are the most expensive IIRC because it's a single press/piece.

 

I mean, I've been of the opinion that since development has already been done on a new Taurus, that that would be the "easiest" to do. Had they not already done that, I'd tend to agree with akriby. I won't be surprised if we eventually see Taurus make it back here (perhaps imported) a year or two after Continental's debut.

[akirby]

But you would need completely new side stampings to do this...which are the most expensive IIRC because it's a single press/piece.

 

But still drastically cheaper than making an entirely different vehicle.

 

I'm not convinced they even need that, just saying if they wanted a family car with more room they could just stretch Fusion.

[rmc523]

 

But still drastically cheaper than making an entirely different vehicle.

 

I'm not convinced they even need that, just saying if they wanted a family car with more room they could just stretch Fusion.

 

They've already made it though.

[akirby]

Ford offering a cramped fullsize then complain about "the market is dead " don't fly but they'll be others to sale those abandoned buyers.

 

But it isn't just Ford. Full sized sales are way down overall. And they still have the platform and the Chinese version ready to bring back if the market shifted.

 

You have to understand that the cost for one mfr to stay in or enter a market is not the same as every other mfr. And potential sales are also not the same because mfrs have different market appeal. You also have to factor in production capacity. It's a very complicated formula and there isn't necessarily a single right answer. You have to pick and choose your products.

 

There is no way Hyundai could sell 400K full sized pickups in the U.S. much less 900,000.

[akirby]

 

They've already made it though.

 

That's a good point. And they wouldn't have capacity for a stretched Fusion if they're limited to Hermosillo either.

 

Obviously they're going to use the FRAP capacity for mustangs, contis and/or something new.

[blazerdude20]

Think GM, FCA and Toyota may have a word with that.

Nothing official but from leaks and industry rumor:

 

GM is killing the impala after this cycle due to development costs and overlap from Malibu.

 

FCA is moving the charger to a midsize form factor. Effectively leaving the 300 on its own, with FCA's financial position I wouldn't count on them being able to due a successor model to the 300.

 

Toyota Avalon survival has been a question mark for quite some time. It's a marginally bigger vehicle than its platform mate Camry. As Toyota fills in their production slots under RAV4 will they be able to make the Avalon turn a reasonable profit?

 

Hyundai hair announced the death of the Azera last week.

 

There's a very strong possibility there are no non-luxury full size cars by 2020.

Edited January 31, 2016 by blazerdude20

[silvrsvt]

The Lexus ES350 shares a platform with the Avalon, which is shared with the Camry. I don't see a market for larger sedans on their own platform, but I can see them surviving on a lengthened mid-sizer platform.

 

I know small and mid sized CUVs are the in thing now, but i wonder about market fatigue

[Sizzler]

"Taurus" doesn't start with an "F"...its days are numbered.

 

Of course, neither does "Ranger"...soon to be the new F-100?

 

Ford has a long history of gyrating decisions regarding which models to keep or end production of.

 

Never liked the Taurus myself, so I'd not be too sad to see it go, of course, if Fusion is the planned replacement for it, I'll probably go away from Ford entirely.

[Fgts]

 

But it isn't just Ford. Full sized sales are way down overall. And they still have the platform and the Chinese version ready to bring back if the market shifted.

 

You have to understand that the cost for one mfr to stay in or enter a market is not the same as every other mfr. And potential sales are also not the same because mfrs have different market appeal. You also have to factor in production capacity. It's a very complicated formula and there isn't necessarily a single right answer. You have to pick and choose your products.

 

There is no way Hyundai could sell 400K full sized pickups in the U.S. much less 900,000.

Well, wasn't taking trucks just fullsize sedans but I get the point.

[Fgts]

Nothing official but from leaks and industry rumor:

 

GM is killing the impala after this cycle due to development costs and overlap from Malibu.

 

The fwd Impala is dead but strong rumor that an Omega (rwd) sedan will replace the Caprice/SS/fleet Impala/retail Impala.

 

FCA is moving the charger to a midsize form factor. Effectively leaving the 300 on its own, with FCA's financial position I wouldn't count on them being able to due a successor model to the 300.

 

The "midsize" Charger would be about 3 in shorter, not exactly small. The 300 increasingly will stay rwd on a modded LX if the Challenger stays it current size and 'Cuda will be convertible, turbo 4/6 only as the regular Hemi is history in cars. Both Charger and 300 will get turbo power, Hellcat v8 will still be an option.

Toyota Avalon survival has been a question mark for quite some time. It's a marginally bigger vehicle than its platform mate Camry. As Toyota fills in their production slots under RAV4 will they be able to make the Avalon turn a reasonable profit?

 

The Avalon is safe due to it being a de-contented ES300 which is Lexus best selling car, in-turn it's a stretched Camry. They make as long as people buy.

Hyundai hair announced the death of the Azera last week.

No real surprise, the Azera never sold well and the Genesis put the final nail in the coffin, not CUVs but the Azera lives in other markets, not the US.

There's a very strong possibility there are no non-luxury full size cars by 2020.

We'll see. Edited February 1, 2016 by Fgts

[jasonj80]

The only way the Taurus stays in the lineup is if it is imported from China, even Police are switching over to SUV's. Question is if Ford thinks it is worth 25,000 units for the bad PR it might bring to import it. Maybe they will announce next year but I don't suspect you'll hear anything before that especially with the election going on. Buick and Volvo at that point will be importing Chinese cars for over a year and the idea of it will have quieted down.

[grbeck]

The Avalon is safe due to it being a de-contented ES300 which is Lexus best selling car, in-turn it's a stretched Camry. They make as long as people buy.

 

If the Lexus ES300 is based on the Camry platform, that makes it even easier to discontinue the Avalon. The Camry and the Lexus ES300 are carrying the freight for that platform. If any crossovers are based on that platform, the Avalon's position is even more tenuous.

[blazerdude20]

If the Lexus ES300 is based on the Camry platform, that makes it even easier to discontinue the Avalon. The Camry and the Lexus ES300 are carrying the freight for that platform. If any crossovers are based on that platform, the Avalon's position is even more tenuous.

They ride on the Toyota K platform. It also underpins the following:

 

Camry

Avalon

Highlander

Venza

Sienna

RX350

ES350

[akirby]

They ride on the Toyota K platform. It also underpins the following:

 

Camry

Avalon

Highlander

Venza

Sienna

RX350

ES350

 

And it's been around since 2001. Sort of shoots a hole in biker16's theory that you have to replace platforms every 7-8 years.

[rmc523]

 

you have to replace platforms every 7-8 years.

 

....or else!

[akirby]

Kinda like the person who recently said they have to update Focus or they'll end up having to kill it.

 

Focus sales have fluctuated between 160K and 245K since 2009. In 2015 it sold 202K. It may drop some over the next 2-3 years but not enough to consider killing it or enough to make a major impact on profits.

[silvrsvt]

The only way the Taurus stays in the lineup is if it is imported from China, even Police are switching over to SUV's. Question is if Ford thinks it is worth 25,000 units for the bad PR it might bring to import it. Maybe they will announce next year but I don't suspect you'll hear anything before that especially with the election going on. Buick and Volvo at that point will be importing Chinese cars for over a year and the idea of it will have quieted down.

 

Ford doesn't need to import it from China...they have room to build in Flat Rock (Where it would be painfully obvious to build it since the Continental is a platform mate) since the Mustang is good for about 120K units a year in a good year (unless these overseas sales keep going up) and the Continental is going to be lucky to see 20-40K units a year (assuming its not also being built in China). Fusion production is going away and as a stretch, you could build it in Oakville since the Flex and MKT are going away...and I think there is another plant or two that can build Edges around the world...its not going to be sole source for them.

 

Doing the math:

 

120K Mustangs

40K Continentals

50-60K Taurus (sales where 48K between civ and PI models and artificially limited by Explorer production)

 

Thats about 220K units a year...but not really sure what else Ford would want to stick there that would make sense if the Taurus wasn't built there.

[akirby]

Makes you wonder why they pulled Fusion out unless they expect sales to drop or they have some unannounced product going into FRAP soon.

[bzcat]

There is certainly a possibility that Ford will build the Taurus in Flat Rock a year or so after Continental goes on sale. We speculated as much back when Ford said Conti was going to Flat Rock. The production numbers on Continental strongly suggests a companion product will be needed to keep the plant operating at optimum level.

 

However, that is assuming sales of Taurus is not in terminal decline... At this point, I feel that Taurus is in the exact position that Ranger was in 6 years ago - there is enough residual volume to keep the current production going as long as there is not a better use of that production capacity, but there is enough uncertainty about the segment's long term viability that investment in production of a new model may not pay for itself.

 

New Taurus engineering is already paid for... but there is still a lot of costs associated with starting production in a new location. And ending production in Chicago will free up about 70k volume... can Ford sell that many more Explorers without impacting profit margin on that model?

 

Lots of moving pieces.

Edited February 1, 2016 by bzcat

[silvrsvt]

Makes you wonder why they pulled Fusion out unless they expect sales to drop or they have some unannounced product going into FRAP soon.

 

Well looking at whats going on in the market place as a whole with small SUV's being the new breadwinners for companies, I can see overflow Fusion production need going away.

[fuzzymoomoo]

Makes you wonder why they pulled Fusion out unless they expect sales to drop or they have some unannounced product going into FRAP soon.

 

There's been a rumor of that going around that I've heard. Supposedly, its another Lincoln.

[akirby]

Thing is the CD4 Taurus was already planned for FRAP along with Continental. Then they killed it and announced that Fusion production was going away. It really sounds like they switched horses midstream and decided to go in another direction for FRAP capacity and Taurus in general.

 

<cough> cd6 <cough>

[akirby]

 

There's been a rumor of that going around that I've heard. Supposedly, its another Lincoln.

 

Would not surprise me to see Conti move to CD6 along with MKZ with a 2 door coupe coming later and Mustang eventually moving to CD6 as well. That makes perfect sense to me.