Ford commits to fully autonomous vehicles within five years

[BrewfanGRB]

And looking at aircraft....even if 95% of the flight is automated, there are still controls that a pilot could take over if need be, not a steering wheel/pedal-less vehicle that you're trusting with no option to take over.

 

Ok? That point doesn't make Richard's analogy a good one.

[akirby]

The point is that full auto-pilot in an airplane is easier than in a car because of the reasons you already cited. Yet airplanes still require humans in the cockpit and all takeoffs and most landings are still done by humans.

 

Why would we expect cars - which have infinitely more variables to deal with - to be easier?

[silvrsvt]

The way I look at it is that there needs to be host of changes to make this reasonable...but that going to take a long time and I figure about the time I'm too old to be driving, they should have it perfected

 

That in about 30 years for now

[BORG]

There is also no consumer or competitive pressure driving evolution of the airline industry. It has to be regulated into existence. Ultimately this is still a consumer product and the main reason for its existence, I'm surprised this has been forgotten during this entire conversation.

Edited August 25, 2016 by BORG

[akirby]

That's actually a good point, but just because consumers want it doesn't mean it's safe or feasible.

 

Consumers want flying cars, too.

[silvrsvt]

Ultimately this is still a consumer product and the main reason for its existence, I'm surprised this has been forgotten during this entire conversation.

 

So in other words, self driving cars are just a way for companies to create something new to keep people buying their products.

[fordmantpw]

 

So in other words, self driving cars are just a way for companies to create something new to keep people buying their products.

 

Unless it's for Uber, in which case, it's a way for companies to sell fewer cars since fewer people will need them.

[mettech]

Pilots in aircraft = a high level of training, yearly physical and certification.

 

USA Drivers = little more than being able to recognise an automobile 7 out of 10 times.

 

Perfection is not the goal.. the goal is to be better or equal to the average driver.

Edited August 25, 2016 by mettech

[BORG]

 

So in other words, self driving cars are just a way for companies to create something new to keep people buying their products.

 

 

Yes, or spend more on them.

[RichardJensen]

the goal is to be better or equal to the average driver.

 

The average driver's crash avoidance rate is better than 99.9999%

[fordmantpw]

 

The average driver's crash avoidance rate is better than 99.9999%

 

Which is better than the up-time of nearly all software systems.

[akirby]

I'll say this one more time - if you're talking about crash avoidance, those features can supplement a real driver and provide the same benefits (automatic braking, lane keeping, etc.) without going driverless.

[Biker16]

 

The average driver's crash avoidance rate is better than 99.9999%

Says who?

[mettech]

The data for the % is skewed.

 

I.e.

I drive in excess of 100k miles per year in urban and rural environments. My last accident was in 1976. Safe, high mileage drivers will move the mean.

 

 

Traffic accidents are increasing due to driver distractions.

[akirby]

Safe high mileage drivers should move the mean and the %. It's not skewed, it's accurate.

[jcartwright99]

81.6% of Americans live in urbanized areas, that's 81.6% of 300+million people And growing.

 

How can we prevent future growth in congestion, air pollution and other negative impacts? When we cannot afford to add enough road capacity to keep up with demand. As urban areas grow?

 

Something has to give, which is driving the development of autonomous vehicles.

 

You really need to define urbanized areas. What does that mean exactly? Is there a population metric? Is that a way of saying that 19% of Americans live in the rural areas (aka the sticks)? That really doesn't mean anything. In large cities public transportation can work. LA somehow screwed the pooch on public transportation. LA needs a good subway or train system. Their bus system isn't very good from what I hear. I digress.

 

In smaller cities though, I don't get how autonomous vehicles help enough. If people replace their own vehicle with an autonomous one, that doesn't lessen the vehicle amount. It may save impact a small percentage in efficiency but not so much in the real world. Sure, there are lots of studies that saying taking the human element out will make traffic jams disappear and makes the roads safer. I agree that is possible but those studies tend to look at this in a vacuum. Ideal conditions.

 

We don't live in ideal condition sort of world. I think the two biggest hurdles will be infrastructure and inclement weather(besides legal because that is it's own animal, that will play out in the legal system with lots of lobbying and money grubbing lawyers and so on). Speaking from my midwest and eastern US perspective, a lot of the roads are garbage. Giant potholes, failing bridges, wore out lines on the road are just a few issues. There has been a massive amount of failure to keep up the roads. If you bring ICE and snow into the equation, don't tell me my autonomous car is going to know all the tricks of the trade of staying on the road. That comes from years of experience in driving in shit weather. You see folks every year who think their car with awd, traction and stability control is going to save them from spinning when hitting slick roads. They usually end up in a ditch. Am I going to let programmer from Silicon Valley program that?

 

I will leave with a good example of a problem I am talking about. Living in a large city, street parking is a part of life for a ton of folks. Using Chicago as an example of where this tends be the case, when it snows all hell can break loose in a lot of different ways. If you don't have 4wd/awd you find creative ways to get in and out of parking spots. I just don't see an autonomous car being able to do this, at all. There generally needs to be a fair amount of wheel spin with a lot of back and fourth action. Are we going to get rid of street parking?

[mettech]

Time will have the final say..

 

Wonder if this thread will surface in 10 years..lol

[RichardJensen]

Says who?

 

Since you don't read all of my posts you missed the very clear citation and very simple math required to establish that figure.

[RichardJensen]

Safe, high mileage drivers will move the mean.

 

 

Traffic accidents are increasing due to driver distractions.

 

https://www.aaafoundation.org/sites/default/files/Motor%20Vehicle%20Crashes%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf

 

Oh, and regarding 'safe high mileage drivers' moving the mean, don't embarrass your statistics prof like that.

[Biker16]

 

Since you don't read all of my posts you missed the very clear citation and very simple math required to establish that figure.

 

 

I am sorry you think you are smarter than the entire auto industry. and you get all worked up when someone thinks maybe the EXPERTS (I.E. not you) may be right about something.

I think you should take a step back and not post for a couple of pages.

[mettech]

Sometimes arrogance exceeds confidence.

[RichardJensen]

 

I am sorry you think you are smarter than the entire auto industry. and you get all worked up when someone thinks maybe the EXPERTS (I.E. not you) may be right about something.

I think you should take a step back and not post for a couple of pages.

 

That's an excellent way of saying, "I can't argue with NHTSA numbers."

[RichardJensen]

Sometimes arrogance exceeds confidence.

 

I have no doubt you're speaking of the arrogant assumption that a car with absolutely no driver controls will be available to the public in 1800 days.

[jpd80]

This could be like an Elon Musk target...........

[4d4evr-1]

Sometimes arrogance exceeds confidence.

I have seen it called the arrogance of ignorance

Mark Twain said it this way: “It's not what you don't know that kills you, it's what you know for sure that ain't true.”