Ford commits to fully autonomous vehicles within five years

[30 OTT 6]

The Butlerian Jihad is coming. I can feel it.

[RichardJensen]

 

You want to refute my assertion?

 

Please name the last product Ford released that you did not complain about.

Edited August 17, 2016 by RichardJensen

[akirby]

It's not a question of the technology being ready, it's the application of that technology in the real world.

[RichardJensen]

It's not a question of the technology being ready, it's the application of that technology in the real world.

 

Which, of course is like saying, "Our model is perfect! It's the data that's the problem!"

Edited August 17, 2016 by RichardJensen

[jasonj80]

 

I even doubt they will be sold. More than likely the manufacturers will own and use for ride-sharing services to perfect and test it out. That's why you are starting to see all these buyouts / partnerships with ride-sharing companies

Technically they will be sold, but will be to a ride share company. I could even see Ford roll into the GoDrive program. One app that can be both used to summons a car, or rent a car by the hour.

[akirby]

 

Which, of course is like saying, "Our model is perfect! It's the data that's the problem!"

 

Or the hardware is ready but the software still has a lot of bugs.

[BORG]

Considering the nuanced nature of the actual announcement, there is plenty of room to fudge it. Ultimately Ford says it will have an automous vehicle capable of navigating itself in a controlled and confined area...which is actually not a big deal at all and something Google has been able to do for years already. These are not consumer vehicles which is vastly more complicated to develop for, and I think this was done to intentionally confuse people into thinking Ford is going to sell autonomous cars to you and me in 5 years. Ford PR has been doing this allot lately and I've learned to roll my eyes at every one of them now.

Edited August 17, 2016 by BORG

[Anthony]

The response from the media? Uhhhhh......

 

https://twitter.com/nickbunkley/status/765618955612454913

[fuzzymoomoo]

 

Which, of course is like saying, "Our model is perfect! It's the data that's the problem!"

AKA, Tesla

[mackinaw]

If Elon Musk can make outrageous predictions and claims, why not Mark Fields?

[Biker16]

 

You want to refute my assertion?

 

Please name the last product Ford released that you did not complain about.

 

Name a perfect product?

[Biker16]

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR443-2.html

 

 

 

Autonomous Vehicle Technology

A Guide for Policymakers

For the past hundred years, innovation within the automotive sector has created safer, cleaner, and more affordable vehicles, but progress has been incremental. The industry now appears close to substantial change, engendered by autonomous, or "self-driving," vehicle technologies. This technology offers the possibility of significant benefits to social welfare — saving lives; reducing crashes, congestion, fuel consumption, and pollution; increasing mobility for the disabled; and ultimately improving land use. This report is intended as a guide for state and federal policymakers on the many issues that this technology raises. After surveying the advantages and disadvantages of the technology, RAND researchers determined that the benefits of the technology likely outweigh the disadvantages. However, many of the benefits will accrue to parties other than the technology's purchasers. These positive externalities may justify some form of subsidy. The report also explores policy issues, communications, regulation and standards, and liability issues raised by the technology; and concludes with some tentative guidance for policymakers, guided largely by the principle that the technology should be allowed and perhaps encouraged when it is superior to an average human driver.

This version of the report, RR-443-2, replaces an earlier version that contained an incomplete account of General Motor's policy on its use of OnStar customer data, none of which affected the findings of the report.

Key Findings

Automated Vehicle Technology Offers Several Benefits

• Without driver error, fewer vehicle crashes will result.
• The mobility of the young, the elderly, and the disabled will be increased.
• Traffic flow could be more efficient and congestion decreased.
• Vehicle occupants could spend travel time engaged in other activities, so the costs of travel time and congestion are reduced.
• Fuel efficiency can be increased and alternative energy sources facilitated.
• Because such vehicles won't need proximate urban parking, space used for parking could be repurposed.

There Are Possible Drawbacks

• Because the technology would decrease the cost of driving, congestion might increase, rather than decrease.
• Occupations and economies based on public transit, crash repair, and automobile insurance might suffer as the technology makes certain aspects of these occupations obsolete.

Policy Implications Include Liability and Regulation Issues

• Manufacturer liability is likely to increase while personal liability is likely to decrease. If a vehicle and a human share driving responsibility, the insurance issues could become more complicated. A variety of solutions exist if this poses a problem.
• Inconsistent state regulation poses a risk — if 50 states have 50 different regulations, it would be difficult for manufacturers to match them all; likewise, vehicle owners might not be able to travel outside their state of residence.
• Because many of the benefits of autonomous vehicle technology accrue to those other than the purchaser, subsidies or taxes may be necessary in order to maximize social welfare by equalizing the public and private costs and benefits.

Recommendations

• Further research should be conducted to better quantify the likely costs and benefits of the technology and, just as importantly, to whom they will accrue.
• As the technology evolves, policymakers should consider subsidies or taxes to equalize the public and private costs and benefits of this technology.
• In general, autonomous vehicle technology ought to be permitted if and when it is superior to average human drivers.
• Judges should consider incorporating the long-run costs and benefits of a technology in ruling on product liability suits.
• At this point, aggressive policymaker intervention with respect to regulations or liability is premature and would probably do more harm than good, but that may change over time.

[akirby]

Complete, utter horse hockey. This is the kind of business case you compose when you have no real data to support what you want to do.

[tbone]

As a consumer I have no interest in buying a vehicle like this. I enjoy driving, so a completely autonomous vehicle sounds very unappealing, and certainly reduces the desire to own a vehicle.

[transitman]

This statement was made to give the impression Ford is working on and near development of an autonomous vehicle, whether it's true or not. The research is taking place and I'm sure Ford has invested some cash to a new division, but if anyone thinks an autonomous vehicle will be on the road in five years, I have a bridge to sell. Why would Fields be behind this when he barely supports EV technology? This is futuristic stuff that our infrastructure and society is not even close to accepting.

Edited August 17, 2016 by transitman

[fuzzymoomoo]

This statement was made to give the impression Ford is working on and near development of an autonomous vehicle, whether it's true or not. The research is taking place and I'm sure Ford has invested some cash to a new division, but if anyone thinks an autonomous vehicle will be on the road in five years, I have a bridge to sell. Why would Fields be behind this when he barely supports EV technology? This is futuristic stuff that our infrastructure and society is not even close to accepting.

Do we know for fact that Fields barely supports EV technology?

 

Sure, the industry talks about it a lot but the fact of the matter is the market isn't buying EVs enough to support rapid development of them. They're doing just enough to not fall behind like FCA is.

[BORG]

I think we forget that Ford has taken a leadership roll on EVs for awhile, and really are just now falling behind while they gear up for a significant line of new EVs. Ford looks like it's sitting on its hands at the moment, but that's part of a product lifecycle. Obviously there is no big push right now to rush anything out since sales are slowing.

 

Ford also has the most ambitious engine efficiency program ever done with EcoBoost in everything (not to mention Aluminum), I see nothing else like it globally. It's not always about batteries.

 

So sure Ford doesn't have Volt, Bolt, Prius, Leaf, Tesla, etc...but they've left no stone un-turned before they get to those type of products as well. There is one thing I can say about Ford and that it's very comprehensive and doesn't ignore anything anymore.

Edited August 17, 2016 by BORG

[transitman]

Do we know for fact that Fields barely supports EV technology?

 

Sure, the industry talks about it a lot but the fact of the matter is the market isn't buying EVs enough to support rapid development of them. They're doing just enough to not fall behind like FCA is.

A relative of mine (now retired) was at the executive level of a large electronics company on the East Coast. Among many other things, they design and manufacture EV charging stations and are working on building the infrastructure to place charging locations across the country. They had meetings with all the players in the EV industry and I was told about one with Mark Fields where he said (and I'm recalling from memory from last summer) Ford was moving forward with the technology, but he was not totally behind it. I believe they said he felt Ford's best interest is developing better and more efficient ICE vehicles. I think you're right about doing just enough to stay in the game and I'll add will build the new plant, design and build a new line, but won't totally commit until the technology is as far as researchers think it can go, and the market will support full scale manufacturing.

[630land]

Checked Detroit News.

 

The first of these will be aimed at urban ride sharing, so expect slow robotic golf carts, going a few miles, before recharging.

 

And, of course, Uber and Lyft want to eliminate the cost of hiring drivers. So there goes some income for many people.

[mettech]

Even if the system worked 70% of the time.. that is still more attention and dependability than the average driver with a cell phone does when commuting.

[rmc523]

I think we forget that Ford has taken a leadership roll on EVs for awhile, and really are just now falling behind while they gear up for a significant line of new EVs. Ford looks like it's sitting on its hands at the moment, but that's part of a product lifecycle. Obviously there is no big push right now to rush anything out since sales are slowing.

 

Ford also has the most ambitious engine efficiency program ever done with EcoBoost in everything (not to mention Aluminum), I see nothing else like it globally. It's not always about batteries.

 

So sure Ford doesn't have Volt, Bolt, Prius, Leaf, Tesla, etc...but they've left no stone un-turned before they get to those type of products as well. There is one thing I can say about Ford and that it's very comprehensive and doesn't ignore anything anymore.

....except subcompact utilities...

 

It would be nice to see more vehicles be able to be "hybridized." I think they missed an opportunity not keeping Escape Hybrid, while an Edge hybrid (as well as MKC and MKX hybrids) would be a nice addition to the lineup, IMO.

 

It seems like there were rumors years ago of a "plug and play" hybrid system that could be used across much of the lineup, but so far we've only seen it in 2 vehicles. Hopefully this coming product/electric vehicle push will include more vehicles like that.

[fuzzymoomoo]

....except subcompact utilities...

 

It would be nice to see more vehicles be able to be "hybridized." I think they missed an opportunity not keeping Escape Hybrid, while an Edge hybrid (as well as MKC and MKX hybrids) would be a nice addition to the lineup, IMO.

 

It seems like there were rumors years ago of a "plug and play" hybrid system that could be used across much of the lineup, but so far we've only seen it in 2 vehicles. Hopefully this coming product/electric vehicle push will include more vehicles like that.

Gas prices tanking and the bottom falling out of the FHEV/PHEV market had a lot to do with that.

[akirby]

Even if the system worked 70% of the time.. that is still more attention and dependability than the average driver with a cell phone does when commuting.

You can implement all of the anti-collision features with a driver.

[RichardJensen]

Even if the system worked 70% of the time

 

So accidents occur to 30% of drivers every day?

[RichardJensen]

 

 

 

You want to refute my assertion?

 

Please name the last product Ford released that you did not complain about.

 

 

 

Name a perfect product?

 

Eagerly awaiting the revelation that you are a member of every auto board out there, relentlessly criticizing every product in the mistaken belief that complaining on the internet accomplishes something.