Biker16 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Nope. A radically simplified transportation network that is immaculately maintained would be a candidate for 100% autonomous cars (not a mix of autonomous and human piloted). If you think that the US is going to upgrade hundreds of thousands of miles of highways, roads, streets, alleys, parkways and parking lots to make autonomous cars possible and simultaneously retire all human-piloted cars (and pedestrians, cyclists, etc.) in order to make autonomous cars as reliable or even more reliable than humans are in this much messier system............................................... And that doesn't even touch the reduction in fatalities likely to accompany increased assistive technologies, which makes the bar for fully autonomous vehicles that much harder to reach. --- Also, 'moving the goal posts' refers to the practice of altering the terms of a discussion when one's original premise is no longer valid. In this instance, rather than adjusting my claims in the face of new evidence, I outlined a scenario in which autonomous cars would be conceivable through a radical simplification of the current driving environment. And in fact, this is only common sense, as there are already autonomous cars operating in exactly that type of a restricted and carefully controlled environment. It has never been my contention that autonomous cars are categorically impossible. It is that they cannot be developed to operate in this driving environment with the level of reliability obtained by human drivers. If you actually read my posts, you would understand all this. All I read from your posts is a very unhappy man. upset that no one else agrees with him. If ford GM, google, Apple Tesla, the USDOT, are betting billions of dollars on a technology and you seem to be the only person saying IT WILL NEVER WORK. my money is on the problem solvers not the Chicken little with no experience in real world automotive or transportation anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 (edited) Actually many of us agree with him on this issue. Also there are many benefits to the technology and use cases other than full auto-pilot on current roads. Edited September 1, 2016 by akirby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted September 1, 2016 Author Share Posted September 1, 2016 All I read from your posts is a very unhappy man. upset that no one else agrees with him. If ford GM, google, Apple Tesla, the USDOT, are betting billions of dollars on a technology and you seem to be the only person saying IT WILL NEVER WORK. my money is on the problem solvers not the Chicken little with no experience in real world automotive or transportation anything. Just FYI, he's not the only one. And this has nothing to do with automotive or transportation. This has to do with the nature of humans vs. machines. Artificial Intelligence. Billions and billions of dollars have been spent on artificial intelligence, and we still haven't seen anything that can think and reason anywhere near the way a human can. That's what this is about. Autonomous cars will be fine under very defined circumstances, that's a given, and has been stated. But, when you open it up to the real world, there is so much rational thinking that has to be done to make it work, it's just not possible with full autonomy and machine learning. Why do you, who has no experience with programming computers (I'm assuming) or artificial intelligence, keep arguing with those of us who have done extensive computer programming and have the knowledge to discuss these options? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Actually many of us agree with him on this issue. Also there are many benefits to the technology and use cases other than full auto-pilot on current roads. Just FYI, he's not the only one. And this has nothing to do with automotive or transportation. This has to do with the nature of humans vs. machines. Artificial Intelligence. Billions and billions of dollars have been spent on artificial intelligence, and we still haven't seen anything that can think and reason anywhere near the way a human can. That's what this is about. Autonomous cars will be fine under very defined circumstances, that's a given, and has been stated. But, when you open it up to the real world, there is so much rational thinking that has to be done to make it work, it's just not possible with full autonomy and machine learning. Why do you, who has no experience with programming computers (I'm assuming) or artificial intelligence, keep arguing with those of us who have done extensive computer programming and have the knowledge to discuss these options? Having Concerns is one thing but this Relentless second guessing of what the industry is doing with an absolute idea that It won't work. again Ford is never Wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted September 1, 2016 Author Share Posted September 1, 2016 Having Concerns is one thing but this Relentless second guessing of what the industry is doing with an absolute idea that It won't work. And you don't second-guess everything Ford does? I mean, you whine and complain about what Ford is doing and how you know better, but when we do it, we're the ones that don't have a clue. Holy freaking $hit dude! again Ford is never Wrong. WTH is that supposed to mean? We're saying Ford is wrong here. Good grief, I give up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I agree with Richard. I'm glad the research is being done and maybe at some point in the not-near future we'll have an autonomous driving society, but it isn't happening five years from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 RJ's point is that autonomous cars are not te panacea of perfection they're made out to be. He's not arguing that humans are perfect either. He simply means that there are so many variables in the transportation network - dirt roads, accidents, Lane closures, construction etc etc that cannot be planned for that a fully autonomous vehicle would not be able to deal with that a human can. Now, that said, in a world where we start from scratch with road systems made to accommodate autonomous vehicles from the ground up, maybe. But we don't have that. Or in a controlled environment, maybe. We will have semi-autonomous vehicles in the near future. that I won't deny, and we're seeing now already with vehicles like the Teslas. But it will take years, if not decades of refinement just on SEMI-autonomous vehicles, let along completely autonomous, control-less vehicles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 (edited) Increased driver assistive (semi-autonomous) technology in vehicles just puts autonomous vehicles that much farther out of reach. Everything you do that makes human drivers that much more reliable raises the standard of excellence for fully autonomous vehicles that much higher. Edited September 1, 2016 by RichardJensen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Ford is never Wrong. Holy crap. What is the title of this thread? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 All I read from your posts is a very unhappy man This is, if anything, the ultimate proof that you do not, in fact, read my posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe771476 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Sorry, it ain't happening! It might work in Nebraska, but not in the mostly congested northeast corridor. Too many ruts, construction sites, and traffic backups. So will the states be collecting driver's license fees? Who buys the insurance? Who sues whom? Does this mean the end of lawyers! Then I'm in! But I might as well take a taxi, bus or train. This will be the end of the auto industry! Like I've been saying, Ford better start making school, commuter and interstate buses, locomotives, fire apparatus and a full line of class 8 trucks, farm tractors, construction equipment, motorcycles, snowmobiles, hover boards, drones, ships/boats, and maybe go into aerial vehicles as well. Well they want to be a mobility company, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812318 Human Choices Figure 9 shows the percentage increase in fatalities in several types of human choice crash situations, with a gray bar showing the overall increase in fatalities to serve as comparison. Fatalities in distraction affected crashes increased from 3,197 to 3,477 (280), or 8.8 percent. Unrestrained passenger vehicle occupant fatalities increased by 4.9 percent, from 9,410 to 9,874. The number of fatalities in crashes involving an alcohol-impaired driver increased by 3.2 percent, from 9,943 to 10,265. Fatalities in speeding-related crashes increased by 3 percent, from 9,283 to 9,557. Percent of Traffic Fatalities that Involve the Following Percent Drunk Driving 32 % Speeding 31 % Distraction 16 % Bad Weather 11 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Since fatalities increased more from a failure to wear seatbelts than distracted driving, how is an autonomous vehicle going to improve restraint usage? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Okay, nattering nabobs of negativity, here's more grist for the mill: http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2016/09/07/ford-nirenberg-neuroscience-technology/89940002/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Rosadini Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Well for SURE, a "lively thread". Again my two cents-ultimately we will see "driverless" vehicles. But again we seem to be lemmings headed for the cliff. How about tackling the obvious first. Every week we read about train wrecks with about 6 locomotives on the same track-three going east and three going west! If you can't automate a railroad properly with a fraction of the variables associated with highway vehicles, what am I missing?? Open pit mines-next closest thing to the rail scenario- miles of open haul road with nothing but a mass excavator on one end and a dump site on the other. Make that work-I do believe they are working on that. Hopefully Mark Fields is playing to the galleries and this "5 year plan" is a bit of smoke to keep the "financial analysts" happy. And Mark is really spending the big bucks to improve fuel economy, reliability and safety of the current and future vehicle slate. Want to read your newspaper on the way to work?- Take a bus-or call Uber. And the fact remains, a lot of us ENJOY driving! PS- seems like I read a piece the other day that a fair number of people are actually ditching their Iphone/Samsungs and going BACK to the simplicity of a flip phone!. Hmnn-some things go full circle! Oh-and to those who say my rail analogy is the perfect case for automation as usually one engineer missed a stop signal, again iI think its the transportation mode with the fewest variables that should be the first to be "driverless". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted September 13, 2016 Author Share Posted September 13, 2016 But wait, there's more: http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/ford-will-offer-driverless-tech-consumers-2025-n647721 Ford Will Offer Driverless Tech to Consumers by 2025 Ford Motor Co. hopes to begin selling fully driverless vehicles to consumers by 2025, CEO Mark Fields said, about four years after the automaker begins marketing the technology to ride-sharing and delivery fleets. Ford recently turned the auto industry's conventional wisdom on its head by saying it plans to go beyond basic autonomous technology — which would require a trained "operator" ready to take control in the event of an emergency. Instead, Ford wants to take the driver out of the picture entirely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 (edited) Just when you thought this conversation was going die......that article will be like gas on a fire. Please stay classy folks. Edited September 13, 2016 by Anthony 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted September 14, 2016 Author Share Posted September 14, 2016 Just when you thought this conversation was going die......that article will be like gas on a fire. Please stay classy folks. Yeah, I was debating on whether to post it or not, but thought it was pertinent... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Yeah, I was debating on whether to post it or not, but thought it was pertinent... Hey, it is news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 IMO its starting to sound more and more like Ford is trying to make news about something...I have alot of doubts of it actually working properly everywhere...I can see it working in limited areas, but its not going work EVERYWHERE. I just hope that Ford doesn't start getting the Silicon Valley mentality of making promises they can't keep or expect to be able to make to work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Since fatalities increased more from a failure to wear seatbelts than distracted driving, how is an autonomous vehicle going to improve restraint usage? or drunk driving? Are drunk driver better drivers than a Computer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 or drunk driving? Are drunk driver better drivers than a Computer? Who knows? There's no comparative data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Who knows? There's no comparative data. So your money is on the drunk driver, LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 So your money is on the drunk driver, LOL What part of "there's no comparative data" implies that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 Just got around to reading the investor day powerpoint - there is some good data on Autonomous research and the direction that Ford is taking http://corporate.ford.com/content/dam/corporate/en/investors/investor-events/Press%20Releases/2016/september-2016-ford-investor-deck-for-web.pdfStarts on page 43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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