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MORGAN STANLEY: Ford's new CEO was not appointed to 'run a normal car company'


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It's not bad, just old. I'm surprised RAM has been doing so well, it's almost the same age.

It's not that old, just a year older than F150, IIRC. It just looks older because the all-new Silvererra's styling change was so minor that it made the Fusion's MCE look radical. That was part of what caused its sales to tank on the new model (it was in real danger of being overtaken by Ram for a few months) until GM started giving away armored cars full of money with them.

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More and more it seems like Morgan Stanley is throwing darts....

That's putting it mildly. I don't think much of these analysts; these are the same morons who, when a company says "we'll make $5 billion this quarter," will downgrade them because they made $7.5 billion instead of the $10 billion figure the analyst pulled out of his arse...

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But it is not proving sufficient to navigate quickly and persuasively the new technology-driven rivalries with a muscular GM and some of the biggest (and richest) players Silicon Valley can muster.

 

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/columnists/daniel-howes/2017/06/07/howes-profit-rich-ford-facing-tough-new-road-ahead/102615786/

 

Ugh. No. No. NO. NO NO NO.

 

NO

 

I can't even. I don't. I just.

 

Where do you even start?

 

I mean, I've seen some bad articles by Howes, but this is just--this is terrible.

 

First of all, Ford has more cash than GM, they aren't going to take a $4B hit because they SOLD something. They have a more well-rounded lineup than GM, and a far, far, far superior international operation than GM (in that they still HAVE an international operation, not just South America & China).

 

Secondly, Uber isn't making money people.

​UBER ISN'T MAKING MONEY

 

TESLA ISN'T MAKING MONEY

 

You want something to be the future? You want something to BE THE FUTURE? It has to be PROFITABLE.

 

Right now Uber is just a corrupt and immoral outfit that funnels venture capitalist money to underemployed inner city residents like some sort of car based welfare project.

 

And Tesla? Tesla? If you can come up with a plausible explanation for how they're going to be profitable when they can't fund ongoing development of ANYTHING?

 

Is electrification coming?

 

I was on the road a lot over the past weekend. Know what's going to happen?

 

Electrification is going to happen.

 

And then the grid's going to get overloaded.

 

And then rates are going to go up to build out the grid.

 

And then people are going to see the savings from electrification disappear.

 

Yes, electrification is here to stay, but it's going to be incredibly expensive.

 

Americans drive, cumulatively, over half a light year every year. Over three trillion miles.

 

Say you want just TEN PERCENT of the nation's fleet miles running on electricity.

 

318 billion miles.

 

Let's assume that you get one mile for every 350 watt hours of energy.

 

318,000,000,000 * .350 = 111,300,000,000 kWh of additional electrical energy consumption = 12,705,479 kW of additional generating power running around the clock, 365 days a year.

 

We're not talking megawatts of additional generating capacity, we're talking gigawatts.

 

Know how much electricity the largest power plant in the US produces? 3.3 GW.

 

You would have to build four plants as large as the Palo Verde power plant (which currently serves three million people) just to power 10% of the US fleet.

 

And that's not counting the impact on the transmission network.

 

 

But whatever. Elon tweets nice and GM's non-GAAP numbers look good, so Ford's in trouble, I guess.

Edited by RichardJensen
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Yeah, what he said!

 

Just had to get that rant out of my system :D

 

I mean, sometimes I swear people have no idea how big the United States is.

 

It's not just your neighborhood and that one suburb you go to some of the time and your parents' house.

 

Three hundred and twenty million people. Three trillion miles driven annually. Dang near three million square miles in the lower 48.

 

We're not talking about some new app for your phone that can be slapped together by underpaid H1 visa holders or off-shored to Bangalore. We're talking about over a quarter billion vehicles driving on almost four million miles of road.

 

Just because you sit on your butt when you drive your car and sit on your butt when you use your cell phone, people think that cars and cell phones are roughly the same thing? Or even that cell phones are *more complicated*????

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Let's assume that you get one mile for every 350 watt hours of energy.

 

318,000,000,000 * .350 = 111,300,000,000 kWh of additional electrical energy consumption = 12,705,479 kW of additional generating power running around the clock, 365 days a year.

 

We're not talking megawatts of additional generating capacity, we're talking gigawatts.

 

Know how much electricity the largest power plant in the US produces? 3.3 GW.

 

You would have to build four plants as large as the Palo Verde power plant (which currently serves three million people) just to power 10% of the US fleet.

 

And that's not counting the impact on the transmission network.

 

 

 

 

That. Right there.

 

So if we build enough generating capacity to power that many electric vehicles what will we fuel those plants with? Coal is out (too dirty), we might have enough natural gas but the environmentalists still consider that a non-renewable fossil fuel (BTW you will need to frack to get enough), and there is not enough hydro/solar/geothermal/wind to make a dent in that kind of demand. That leaves us with nuclear and unicorn farts...............

 

I figure that Japanese are probably right thinking hydrogen will be the fuel of the future, but that is a very long way off.

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Well, you do know Tesla has those solar roof tiles, right? They're gonna change the way the world generates electricity just like they are gonna change the way we commute!

 

I'm due a roof on my house in the next 5 years or so...so they are kinda on my radar.

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I thought that was just a refresh....

GM was calling it all-new. I don't particularly like them, so I didn't investigate that claim, but I do know that the GM fans I knew were mad that it was such a major change, yet it looked almost exactly like the previous model.

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I'm due a roof on my house in the next 5 years or so...so they are kinda on my radar.

 

Yes -- the solar roof panels. What a great way to make electric cars affordable for people who can afford electric cars!

 

Those things do diddly-squat for people that are poor or in marginal conditions.

 

Every single thing about this whole stupid business is about making life cheaper/simpler for people who can already afford things just fine. Having trouble getting by? Yeah, well this stuff ain't for you.

 

The Model S? "Look at me! Look how environmentally responsible I am with my 4,000 SF house, that I keep at 72 degrees all summer long!!!! My car plugs in!"

 

Man, I must just be really cranky this week. Nothing personal, silvrsvt, just gets under my skin to see people with huge environmental footprints patting themselves on the back for owning a Tesla and using solar panels to charge it. It's like getting a Diet Coke with your big mac value meal.

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Yes -- the solar roof panels. What a great way to make electric cars affordable for people who can afford electric cars!

 

Those things do diddly-squat for people that are poor or in marginal conditions.

 

Every single thing about this whole stupid business is about making life cheaper/simpler for people who can already afford things just fine. Having trouble getting by? Yeah, well this stuff ain't for you.

 

The Model S? "Look at me! Look how environmentally responsible I am with my 4,000 SF house, that I keep at 72 degrees all summer long!!!! My car plugs in!"

 

Man, I must just be really cranky this week. Nothing personal, silvrsvt, just gets under my skin to see people with huge environmental footprints patting themselves on the back for owning a Tesla and using solar panels to charge it. It's like getting a Diet Coke with your big mac value meal.

Was at the barber last Friday reading a "Farm Show" magazine while waiting my turn. Guy in Minnesota built a house that has zero energy cost, 104% from solar. The interesting part that I got was the solar panels he bought 6 years ago are half the cost now that they were then.

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Was at the barber last Friday reading a "Farm Show" magazine while waiting my turn. Guy in Minnesota built a house that has zero energy cost, 104% from solar. The interesting part that I got was the solar panels he bought 6 years ago are half the cost now that they were then.

 

If I had a house, I'd definitely go with solar panels, but then, I can afford them. There's no Henry Ford for reducing your electric costs--or your transportation costs. Are you struggling to make ends meet? Yeah, well, this thing that will lower your electric bill to almost nothing? You can't afford it. Sorry.

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It's not that old, just a year older than F150, IIRC. It just looks older because the all-new Silvererra's styling change was so minor that it made the Fusion's MCE look radical. That was part of what caused its sales to tank on the new model (it was in real danger of being overtaken by Ram for a few months) until GM started giving away armored cars full of money with them.

 

Ram has outsold Silverado the last two months.

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I'm due a roof on my house in the next 5 years or so...so they are kinda on my radar.

 

Had they been available when I built my house, I likely would have considered them. As it is, we put solar panels on our detached garage in July and I'm pleased with them.

 

Was at the barber last Friday reading a "Farm Show" magazine while waiting my turn. Guy in Minnesota built a house that has zero energy cost, 104% from solar. The interesting part that I got was the solar panels he bought 6 years ago are half the cost now that they were then.

 

We are near zero from our solar. Probably 95% of our electricity is being generated from solar (we had a surplus last month and another big one coming this month).

 

But, as RJ points out, you can't do that if you don't already have funding for it.

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Yes -- the solar roof panels. What a great way to make electric cars affordable for people who can afford electric cars!

 

Those things do diddly-squat for people that are poor or in marginal conditions.

 

Every single thing about this whole stupid business is about making life cheaper/simpler for people who can already afford things just fine. Having trouble getting by? Yeah, well this stuff ain't for you.

 

The Model S? "Look at me! Look how environmentally responsible I am with my 4,000 SF house, that I keep at 72 degrees all summer long!!!! My car plugs in!"

 

Man, I must just be really cranky this week. Nothing personal, silvrsvt, just gets under my skin to see people with huge environmental footprints patting themselves on the back for owning a Tesla and using solar panels to charge it. It's like getting a Diet Coke with your big mac value meal.

 

 

No offense taken...I'm only looking at it if the costs are comparable to a regular roof replacement or slightly more...if it will pay for itself if it costs more.

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No offense taken...I'm only looking at it if the costs are comparable to a regular roof replacement or slightly more...if it will pay for itself if it costs more.

what am I missing- You are suggesting solar panels take the place of conventional roofing? the panels that I see around here are in essence installed on some sort of saddles above the conventional roofing-and I've always said...no way I'm letting someone on my roof wrecking my 40 year asphalt shingles!

 

If there are solar panels that take the place of roofing, they must come at a big premium???

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what am I missing- You are suggesting solar panels take the place of conventional roofing? the panels that I see around here are in essence installed on some sort of saddles above the conventional roofing-and I've always said...no way I'm letting someone on my roof wrecking my 40 year asphalt shingles!

 

If there are solar panels that take the place of roofing, they must come at a big premium???

that is indeed what Tesla is trying to sell.
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what am I missing- You are suggesting solar panels take the place of conventional roofing? the panels that I see around here are in essence installed on some sort of saddles above the conventional roofing-and I've always said...no way I'm letting someone on my roof wrecking my 40 year asphalt shingles!

 

If there are solar panels that take the place of roofing, they must come at a big premium???

 

Yep, solar roof 'shingles': https://www.tesla.com/solarroof

 

It's actually a pretty cool idea if it works like they say.

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This came up a few months back. Morgan Stanley, or somebody, put the cost at $500.00/pickup.

My new Raptor cost $10,000 more than my last Raptor cost new. If Ford can't cover the extra cost of $500 in the aluminum with the new pricing structure for the F-150, then they're in a serious world of hurt. My understanding is that all of the F-150 models received price increases that certainly should be covering the additional cost, so the overall profitability of the truck shouldn't have been affected.

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