probowler Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Will they also certify buyers to be Load Masters? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
probowler Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/25/2020 at 4:29 AM, mlhm5 said: Wonder whatever/will happened/happen to Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson, Blackberry, PDAs, MP3 players, regular wristwatches, handheld video games, and point and shoot cameras after the introduction of the iPhone/iWatch? I am an observer of disruptive innovation and Tesla is the iPhone in the legacy automaker market. By the end of 2021, Tesla will have 5 gigafactories ( #1 opened in July of 2016) in operation around the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 2/27/2020 at 3:23 AM, mlhm5 said: Each of those 20+MM EV sold in 2030 will be a direct replacement for and ICE vehicle. Ford is out of the sedan business. Currently, Tesla has over 500,000 reservations (pay $100) just for the Cybertruck and it is not scheduled to be released until 2021. Pre-orders for the Model Y are unknown or untracked. Ford plans to build 50K Mustang Mach E's by the end of 2021. Either Ford is consciously deciding not to be a major player in the EV market, they are just going to dip their toe in the market and take a wait and see position or they do not believe the future of EVs is as bright as being reported. I suspect the reason Ford did not go with an EV pick-up first is they did not want to cannibalize their existing market. With 3+MM pick-ups sold in the US alone Ford could have increased their hold on the pick-up market by being first with an EV like the Cybertruck. https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/how-to-tell-your-place-in-line-based-on-cybertruck-preorder-reservation-number.251/ You talk a good game but the truth is that a lot of the assumption being made are just not true, Tesla is not going to walk in and take a big chunk of the truck and SUV market without facing ever increasing and stronger competition. It's no longer 2017, manufacturers have BEV plans in motion but no perceptions change until products drop and IMO 2021 to 2023 will be the big watershed period. By the end of this year, Ford will have more than 75% of its ICE showroom refreshed so they don't Need much attention over the next two or three years which leaves 2021 to 2023 free for release of Ford's BEVs. For the last three years, Ford has been investing heavily in BEVs, they should be turning up right when Tesla is looking to really expand......and that's not by accident. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 12:27 PM, jpd80 said: You talk a good game but the truth is that a lot of the assumption being made are just not true, Tesla is not going to walk in and take a big chunk of the truck and SUV market without facing ever increasing and stronger competition. It's no longer 2017, manufacturers have BEV plans in motion but no perceptions change until products drop and IMO 2021 to 2023 will be the big watershed period. By the end of this year, Ford will have more than 75% of its ICE showroom refreshed so they don't Need much attention over the next two or three years which leaves 2021 to 2023 free for release of Ford's BEVs. For the last three years, Ford has been investing heavily in BEVs, they should be turning up right when Tesla is looking to really expand......and that's not by accident. Tesla is 6 years or more ahead in battery technology and we have not seen the effect of the recent purchases of Hibar, Maxwell, and Grohmann. I suspect on "Battery Day" next month Tesla is going to drop the hammer on all other battery manufacturers, maybe with a $100Kwh battery or some other development that is stunning. Ford uses the pouch style lithium battery which cannot be cooled evenly and leads to shorter battery life. I do not know what the F guarantee is on battery life but the Nissan Leaf is basically dead in 5 years and they use the pouch lithium battery. My best guess is the 99kWh battery in the Mustang Mach E costs over $200 per kWh which means the battery is a $20K cost to F. IMO, the most expensive part. AFAIK F has no plans to build their own batteries so they will have to rely on their 3rd party suppliers for any innovation that could lower battery cost. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 28 minutes ago, mlhm5 said: Tesla is 6 years or more ahead in battery technology and we have not seen the effect of the recent purchases of Hibar, Maxwell, and Grohmann. GM has just blown by Tesla regarding batteries. From today's Detroit News: "The Cruise Origin will be the first product using GM's third-generation electric vehicle platform and new Ultium batteries, which GM claims are unique to the industry because the large-format pouch style cells can be stacked vertically or horizontally inside the battery pack, allowing designers to optimize battery storage and layout for each vehicle's design. The Ultium battery energy has range options from 50 to 200 kWh, which GM estimates will provide a range of up to 400 miles or more on a full charge." https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2020/03/04/gm-spend-billions-evs-autonomous-vehicles-2025/4950451002/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 (edited) And there’s the speeding comment approaching Elon’s world.... Betamax was way more advanced than VHS, didn't save it from being made redundant Edited March 5, 2020 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted March 5, 2020 Author Share Posted March 5, 2020 9 hours ago, mackinaw said: GM has just blown by Tesla regarding batteries. From today's Detroit News: "The Cruise Origin will be the first product using GM's third-generation electric vehicle platform and new Ultium batteries, which GM claims are unique to the industry because the large-format pouch style cells can be stacked vertically or horizontally inside the battery pack, allowing designers to optimize battery storage and layout for each vehicle's design. The Ultium battery energy has range options from 50 to 200 kWh, which GM estimates will provide a range of up to 400 miles or more on a full charge." https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2020/03/04/gm-spend-billions-evs-autonomous-vehicles-2025/4950451002/ Once again LI pouch batteries cannot be cooled evenly and this affects battery life. Nissan Leaf battery is a pouch style battery and it is dead after 5 years. GM is just putting a new name on an old technology which compared to Tesla batteries produce less range, less performance, and shorter lifespan and are more expensive. The GM battery will cost over $200 kWh so a 1000 kWh battery will cost $20K. Tesla builds them far cheaper. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted March 5, 2020 Author Share Posted March 5, 2020 8 hours ago, jpd80 said: And there’s the speeding comment approaching Elon’s world.... Betamax was way more advanced than VHS, didn't save it from being made redundant No auto manufacturer has ever built 40K EV autos in one year except Tesla. Ford says they will build 50K by the end of 2021, if they can get the batteries. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, mlhm5 said: Once again LI pouch batteries cannot be cooled evenly and this affects battery life. Nissan Leaf battery is a pouch style battery and it is dead after 5 years. GM is just putting a new name on an old technology which compared to Tesla batteries produce less range, less performance, and shorter lifespan and are more expensive. The GM battery will cost over $200 kWh so a 1000 kWh battery will cost $20K. Tesla builds them far cheaper. Good points mlhm5 sir. Here's a video discussing technical and economic aspects of cylindrical vs rigid prismatic vs pouch cell configuration for lithium ion batteries. Speaker is Ravindra Kempaiah. He is a Ph.D student specializing in energy storage. Edited March 5, 2020 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, jpd80 said: Betamax was way more advanced than VHS, didn't save it from being made redundant That's a risk GM faces. While GM's Ultium technology made advancements with battery packaging, the pouch style cell configuration is still not optimal in terms of cost, performance, and durability as mlhm5 explained. In the videotape format wars, Betamax had issues with cost and recording time which eventually killed the format. In the BEV battery format war, the pouch style configuration may be headed down the same path, and if so Ultium as well as battery packs from most automakers and suppliers other than Tesla and Rivian could be made redundant sooner rather than later. Edited March 5, 2020 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 3 hours ago, mlhm5 said: No auto manufacturer has ever built 40K EV autos in one year except Tesla. Ford says they will build 50K by the end of 2021, if they can get the batteries. Correct, one thing auto companies are good at is efficient mass production of vehicles, Tesla may be innovative but they don’t know shit from clay when it comes to production efficiency. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, rperez817 said: That's a risk GM faces. While GM's Ultium technology made advancements with battery packaging, the pouch style cell configuration is still not optimal in terms of cost, performance, and durability as mlhm5 explained. In the videotape format wars, Betamax had issues with cost and recording time which eventually killed the format. In the BEV battery format war, the pouch style configuration may be headed down the same path, and if so Ultium as well as battery packs from most automakers and suppliers other than Tesla and Rivian could be made redundant sooner rather than later. GM has even deeper pockets than Ford, you watch them go with multiple BEV launches, they do things like that on a grand scale. The gel packs are interesting tech but I could see Tesla avoiding it due to risk, if it failed, Tesla would have insufficient cash resources to change course and recover but GM is fearless and will push forward regardless because it can cover a hit like that - and that’s the difference. Of note, GM has patented heat rejecting lead tabs that sit between the gel packs, so it will be interesting to see if the practical engineers at GM have what it takes to get the gel packs to work longer than five years. my reference of Betamax was to Tesla being tech superior but production limited compared to VHS GM which may deliver slightly less advanced vehicle but a ton more to its buyers via as many plants as it takes. That proliferation and growth is what sets GM apart from Tesla, it won’t matter how advanced Tesla is if GM takes their sales growth oxygen Edited March 5, 2020 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 18 hours ago, mlhm5 said: Tesla is 6 years or more ahead in battery technology Ford is 100 years ahead in building pickups, mass production and profitability. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted March 5, 2020 Author Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 hour ago, akirby said: Ford is 100 years ahead in building pickups, mass production and profitability. Tesla has 8+ years of experience in building EVs. Ford has not built 1000 yet. I would not be so quick to say it was as easy as it looks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 9 hours ago, mlhm5 said: No auto manufacturer has ever built 40K EV autos in one year except Tesla. Ford says they will build 50K by the end of 2021, if they can get the batteries. no automaker has ever strung together so many quarterly losses either...DOH!....although the future looks a little brighter for them now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blwnsmoke Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 hour ago, mlhm5 said: Tesla has 8+ years of experience in building EVs. Ford has not built 1000 yet. I would not be so quick to say it was as easy as it looks. Once built, Ford has 100+ years of assembly line and manufacturing. Havent seen any Tents that Ford has built so their cars can be built outside. Ohh.. did you hear the one where Tesla is putting in old hardware and lieing to their customers about it? Check it out, it is pretty comical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 hour ago, mlhm5 said: Tesla has 8+ years of experience in building EVs. Ford has not built 1000 yet. I would not be so quick to say it was as easy as it looks. They have built plenty of plug in hybrids which are actually more complex, dropping the gasoline engine makes the build easier. Tesla's problem is basic body construction and inefficient use of production resources, GM and Ford are smiling watching Tesla. It would be naeve to assume that GM an Ford couldn't switch to mas BEV in a short period of time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 hour ago, mlhm5 said: Tesla has 8+ years of experience in building EVs. Ford has not built 1000 yet. I would not be so quick to say it was as easy as it looks. Ford was putting batteries and electric motors in production vehicles 15 years ago. Stop trolling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted March 5, 2020 Author Share Posted March 5, 2020 17 minutes ago, akirby said: Ford was putting batteries and electric motors in production vehicles 15 years ago. Stop trolling. Tesla Is Years Ahead Of Competitors With No Signs Of Stopping - Forbes " Tesla’s new FSD computer has capabilities that have dumbfounded the other auto manufacturers to the degree that they aren’t really sure what to do. A Nikkei tear-down of the Tesla Model 3 found that Tesla’s electronics are 6 years ahead of the #1 and #2 car manufacturers in the world, Toyota and VW. They even said an engineer at a major Japanese auto manufacturer was stunned, saying that, “we cannot do it.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Consider this your one and only warning. Stop trolling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlhm5 Posted March 5, 2020 Author Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 hour ago, jpd80 said: They have built plenty of plug in hybrids which are actually more complex, dropping the gasoline engine makes the build easier. Tesla's problem is basic body construction and inefficient use of production resources, GM and Ford are smiling watching Tesla. It would be naeve to assume that GM an Ford couldn't switch to mas BEV in a short period of time It would be absolutely wrong to think that Tesla has not learned how to be extremely adept at building EVs after 8+ years and having built over 400K Model 3s in the last two years and that just manufacturing and does not include battery technology, software technology, FSD, etc. I think there is a mindset among big auto manufacturers where they believe the only job of the manufacturer is to source all the parts and technology from third parties and make the frame, suspension, engine and assemble the car and then deal with any warranty repairs and recalls. After all it has been that way forever and change is hard if not impossible. In 2030 we will see who is still standing. Probably the ones that invested billions and billions today into EV, battery technology, software, etc. and actually believe that EVs are the future. The rest will be struggling to stay in business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, mlhm5 said: It would be absolutely wrong to think that Tesla has not learned how to be extremely adept at building EVs after 8+ years and having built over 400K Model 3s in the last two years and that just manufacturing and does not include battery technology, software technology, FSD, etc. I think there is a mindset among big auto manufacturers where they believe the only job of the manufacturer is to source all the parts and technology from third parties and make the frame, suspension, engine and assemble the car and then deal with any warranty repairs and recalls. After all it has been that way forever and change is hard if not impossible. In 2030 we will see who is still standing. Probably the ones that invested billions and billions today into EV, battery technology, software, etc. and actually believe that EVs are the future. The rest will be struggling to stay in business. Last comment. We’ve been through this over and over. Tesla has shown that a vertically integrated Gigafactory cannot turn a profit on 400K units with no competition and with a $7500 government subsidy. To think they will make a profit when there is real competition and that competition has a $7500 price advantage is ridiculous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomcat68 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 19 minutes ago, akirby said: Last comment. We’ve been through this over and over. Tesla has shown that a vertically integrated Gigafactory cannot turn a profit on 400K units with no competition and with a $7500 government subsidy. To think they will make a profit when there is real competition and that competition has a $7500 price advantage is ridiculous. You mean you don't want to hear about how aliens from another galaxy traveled here to ask Elon musk to share his technology, but he was too busy patenting the sun so no one else can make solar panels to recharge cars and taking deposits on the Tesla cyber helicopters which will be built in 10 gigafactories? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 hour ago, atomcat68 said: You mean you don't want to hear about how aliens from another galaxy traveled here to ask Elon musk to share his technology, but he was too busy patenting the sun so no one else can make solar panels to recharge cars and taking deposits on the Tesla cyber helicopters which will be built in 10 gigafactories? Post of the week!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Tesla has had the biggest head start ever on the main auto industry, we can keep going on and on about the merits of early adopters or those that wait and ride in on the coat tails of maturing technology. The one important fact is that Detroit is not asleep at the switch, they have plans, deep pockets and existing revenue streams that Tesla would kill for. They are coming and will be real competition..... It’s easy to get caught up in ego driven product, to do things that no one else can at the moment but at what cost? Tesla is only now hitting its stride with production, it needs to turn escalating revenue into profit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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