Electric Vehicle Discussion Thread - Ford Related

[jpd80]

this from Forbes,

 

Quote

https://www.forbes.com.au/news/innovation/enormous-challenges-for-tesla-cybertruck-production-and-pricing/

Tesla’s long-delayed Cybertruck, its blocky version of a pickup truck, will finally be available in November though CEO Elon Musk cautioned investors to keep their sales expectations in check because of how difficult and costly it is to manufacture

“It’s an amazing product but I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck and then in making the Cybertruck cash flow positive,” Musk said during Tesla’s earnings call on Wednesday. “While I think this is potentially our best product ever — I think it is our best product ever — it is going to require immense work to reach high-volume production and be cash flow positive at a price that people can afford.”

 

The billionaire entrepreneur declined to provide a volume target for the new model’s sales in 2024, though he speculated that it could reach 250,000 sales a year, possibly by 2025. And he provided no further detail on the “enormous challenges” he cited.

 

At its public debut in November 2019 (when design chief Franz von Holzhausen embarrassingly shattered the truck’s supposedly indestructible armor glass), Musk claimed the vehicle would be on the road by 2021 with a base price of as little as $39,900. Tesla hasn’t announced what the truck will really cost when it finally goes on sale, though industry analysts expect the price to be far higher than the one Musk first specified.

 

Musk claims demand for the Cybertruck is “off the charts” with more than 1 million potential buyers putting down $100 to reserve one. It’s not at all clear how many of those people will follow through on the purchase, particularly if its price increases. The truck will be produced at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, plant, with deliveries to start on Nov. 30.

 

Tesla is pushing its way into pickups because they’re the auto market’s largest, most profitable segment. But it’s not a pioneer in the electric truck space. Ford, which has dominated the pickup market for decades with its F-150, beat Tesla to market with its battery-powered F-150 Lightning, aimed at both pickup fans and commercial customers, starting at $49,995. GM is rolling out its $52,000 electric Chevy Silverado and Stellantis is preparing to sell the $58,000 RAM 1500 REV that promises up to 500 miles of range per charge. Customers looking for a non-traditional truck can also get an electric R1T from upstart Rivian, a sporty model the company promotes for camping and beach trips with friends.

 

Musk spoke after Tesla posted weaker-than-anticipated financial resultslast quarter. The company’s $23.4 billion in sales during the three-month period ending September 30 came in below consensus analyst forecasts of roughly $24.2 billion, according to FactSet, while its $0.66 earnings per share fell short of estimates of $0.72. Tesla’s 9% year-over-year revenue growth was its weakest since 2020’s second quarter.

 

Shares of Tesla dropped 9.3% to $220.11 in Nasdaq trading on Thursday.

 

[Rick73]

Musk probably wishes he could take the Cybertruck back.  Recent comments he made to the press about the upcoming low-cost Tesla being  “utilitarian” and “not meant to fill you with awe and magic” suggest he learned a hard lesson about pushing boundaries too far.

 

 

"The high-volume, low-cost smaller vehicle is actually much more conventional," Musk said. "We're doing everything as possible to simplify the next-generation vehicle in order to achieve a units-per-minute level that is unheard of in the auto industry."

 

"It will be cool, but it's utilitarian. It's not meant to fill you with awe and magic, it's to get you from A to B. Still beautiful, but utilitarian."
 

 

Data below shows Ford is losing ground to BEV competitors.

[rperez817]

On 10/21/2023 at 11:33 AM, Rick73 said:

Data below shows Ford is losing ground to BEV competitors.

 

Thanks for that data Rick73. At first glance Ford's relative ranking seemed worrisome. But upon noticing the timeframe of Q2 2023 for that data, it's far less onerous. Q2 2023 is when Ford suspended production of their 2 most popular BEV to upgrade the plants where they are assembled. Ford has ramped up production of those models dramatically since then, and it wouldn't be surprising if Ford advances past Mercedes-Benz, VW, and maybe even GM by the end of Q4.

[DeluxeStang]

On 10/21/2023 at 9:33 AM, Rick73 said:

Musk probably wishes he could take the Cybertruck back.  Recent comments he made to the press about the upcoming low-cost Tesla being  “utilitarian” and “not meant to fill you with awe and magic” suggest he learned a hard lesson about pushing boundaries too far.

 

 

"The high-volume, low-cost smaller vehicle is actually much more conventional," Musk said. "We're doing everything as possible to simplify the next-generation vehicle in order to achieve a units-per-minute level that is unheard of in the auto industry."

 

"It will be cool, but it's utilitarian. It's not meant to fill you with awe and magic, it's to get you from A to B. Still beautiful, but utilitarian."
 

 

Data below shows Ford is losing ground to BEV competitors.

To be fair, Ford only has 3 EV offerings, and they're all pretty compromised. We haven't seen Ford come out to play when it comes to EVs yet, they've just woken up. The next few generations of Ford EVs sound like they're gonna be truly game changing, and more affordable. That will be when their sales start to pick up. 

[silvrsvt]

Second battery plant in KY to be delayed as EV Market softens

 

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/money/companies/2023/10/26/ford-ev-car-battery-plant-production-delay-kentucky-jobs/71335567007/

[ice-capades]

Forget the UAW Strike, the Real Crisis May be a Lack of Demand for EVs

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2023/10/27/forget-the-strike-the-real-crisis-could-be-a-lack-of-demand-for-evs/71291494007/

 

One year ago, most car dealers could sell an electric vehicle within a few weeks. Today, data shows those vehicles linger longer than a month, gathering dust on dealership lots, despite lower transaction prices, a federal tax credit available on many and attractive leasing options.

 

According to Edmunds.com data, in September 2022, the average number of days an EV sat on a dealership lot before it sold was 21. Last month, it was 65 days.

"EVs were at one point the fastest-selling vehicles on a dealer's lot; now becoming the slowest seller is not confidence inspiring," said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights.

 

At Cox Automotive, data shows consumers paid a $10,000 to $15,000 premium on EVs in recent years, said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. The most recent data shows there’s a less than $3,000 premium paid for an EV compared with an internal combustion engine vehicle, she said.

 

Automakers increased production of EVs to give consumers more selection and pricing relief, Drury said, but consumers sentiment for EVs has taken "a remarkable turn of fortune versus last year when consumers were buying these vehicles with sight unseen, no test drive and paying over sticker. Now you have dealers that can't even get rid of these with both automaker- and government-backed assistance."

 

Ford Motor Co. is tweaking its electric strategy. CEO Jim Farley said in July that after hearing consumers express apprehension about all-electric vehicles, he adjusted company strategy. Ford plans to continue its push into hybrid vehicles, which use both gasoline and battery power, to accommodate consumers who want to slow down their pending divorce from the traditional fuel pump, Farley revealed after second-quarter earnings.

 

Farley also dialed back the Ford forecast to produce 600,000 EVs annually by 2024 rather than by 2023. He spotlighted hybrids, which increase fuel efficiency for truck owners while allowing them to go to the gas pump in times of need rather than find a charging station to plug in.

 

On Thursday, Ford said in its third-quarter earnings call that it is reevaluating its speed of investment in EVs, though it is "not moving away" from its next generation of electric products. But the company is balancing consumer demand and volumes produced. It will delay about $12 billion in capital investments related to EV production.

Edited October 27, 2023 by ice-capades
Additional Content

[jpd80]

Quote

On Thursday, Ford said in its third-quarter earnings call that it is reevaluating its speed of investment in EVs, though it is "not moving away" from its next generation of electric products. But the company is balancing consumer demand and volumes produced. It will delay about $12 billion in capital investments related to EV production.

What and where that delay of $12 billion in capital investments is the big question. A message to Wall Street that it will actively control its spending  until there’s a clearer vision of buyers wanting BEVs.

 

 

[jpd80]

Just a theory:
So  looking back at an article from 2021, Ford was investing $11.4 billion in what became Blue Oval Center and two battery plants, so assuming that this is where the delay in spending will occur, it’s likely that those projects will be slowed down by 18 months to two years. That in turn means next Gen F150 could be delayed until mid 2027 to early 2028?

 if true, the ramifications  are interesting - does current Lightning hangs around until that time?

I look forward to what other people might be thinking regarding this and the spillover for UAW

if these BEV and  battery plants now begin manufacturing well after the new UAW contract expires?

Did Ford also delay these plants to put them  out of Fain’s reach for now?

 

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/09/27/ford-to-lead-americas-shift-to-electric-vehicles.html

 

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by jpd80

[silvrsvt]

12 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Just a theory:
So  looking back at an article from 2021, Ford was investing $11.4 billion in what became Blue Oval Center and two battery plants, so assuming that this is where the delay in spending will occur, it’s likely that those projects will be slowed down by 18 months to two years. That in turn means next Gen F150 could be delayed until mid 2027 to early 2028?

 if true, the ramifications  are interesting - does current Lightning hangs around until that time?

I look forward to what other people might be thinking regarding this and the spillover for UAW

if these BEV and  battery plants now begin manufacturing well after the new UAW contract expires?

Did Ford also delay these plants to put them  out of Fain’s reach for now?

 

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/09/27/ford-to-lead-americas-shift-to-electric-vehicles.html

 

Currently BOC and a single Battery plant with SK are still slated to open during the current contract. The additional SK plant in Tennessee is delayed till 2026 and the battery plant that is in Michigan that was stopped construction on is up in the air at the moment. 

 

T3, which is separate from the F-150, should still be out by the end of 2025. Next gen ICE F-150 is most likely after this contract like you said. 

[jpd80]

10 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Currently BOC and a single Battery plant with SK are still slated to open during the current contract. The additional SK plant in Tennessee is delayed till 2026 and the battery plant that is in Michigan that was stopped construction on is up in the air at the moment. 

 

T3, which is separate from the F-150, should still be out by the end of 2025. Next gen ICE F-150 is most likely after this contract like you said. 

Yes, currently…

All I’m saying is that it takes a while for the delaying of $12 billion investment to filter through, I think we’ll see

an announcement regarding slowing of those three plants as Ford takes a breath on “rushing to market”.

If all the demand for Lightning and Mach E has evaporated then there’s no point building a massive

plant like BOC to land in just over two years time, better to push that out another couple of years.

Another hint could be this,

GM just cancelled its large BEV truck plant so I think the BEV Silverado is now in limbo as GM

has withdrawn all of its near target production milestones for this year and the next but gives

no indication of when it expects to reach those run rates.
 

So clearly, this is bigger than just Ford.

Edited October 29, 2023 by jpd80

[jpd80]

Mach E dealer inventory continues to grow

California Route 1…………..891

GT…………………………………..3,934

Premium……………………….7,056

Select…………………………….1,669

 

TOTAL………………………..13,550

 

I’m beginning to wonder if this is the rest of the 20,000 total inventory slowly filtering through to dealers.

It is concerning that the stock numbers continue to rise as it shows how sluggish sales are and how those

high prices are hurting sales…..maybe that’s not a factor because buyers are just not interested in the first place.

[AGR]

11 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Currently BOC and a single Battery plant with SK are still slated to open during the current contract. The additional SK plant in Tennessee is delayed till 2026 and the battery plant that is in Michigan that was stopped construction on is up in the air at the moment. 

 

T3, which is separate from the F-150, should still be out by the end of 2025. Next gen ICE F-150 is most likely after this contract like you said. 

 

Just to clarify, BOC and its SK battery plant are currently on schedule to open on time. It is one of the two side-by-side battery plants in KENTUCKY that is being delayed. Ford will postpone about $12 billion in EV investment (cnbc.com)

[AGR]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Another hint could be this,

GM just cancelled its large BEV truck plant so I think the BEV Silverado is now in limbo as GM

has withdrawn all of its near target production milestones for this year and the next but gives

no indication of when it expects to reach those run rates.
 

So clearly, this is bigger than just Ford.

 

No they didn't, that plant is being delayed, not canceled.

Jeez, there's lots of misinformation in this thread..

[silvrsvt]

7 minutes ago, AGR said:

 

No they didn't, that plant is being delayed, not canceled.

Jeez, there's lots of misinformation in this thread..

 

Not to mention the Bolt is supposed to continue production at that same plant, which it was supposed to go away. 

[silvrsvt]

11 minutes ago, AGR said:

 

Just to clarify, BOC and its SK battery plant are currently on schedule to open on time. It is one of the two side-by-side battery plants in KENTUCKY that is being delayed. Ford will postpone about $12 billion in EV investment (cnbc.com)

 

yeah I got my states screwed up

[jpd80]

10 minutes ago, AGR said:

 

No they didn't, that plant is being delayed, not canceled.

Jeez, there's lots of misinformation in this thread..

It’s not disinformation, it was meant to get people like you focused instead of believing everything that GM says.

GM is telling us it won’t need that plant until 2026 at this point in time, there’s no guarantee  that it will be needed in 2026 either.

I could be further delayed or silently cancelled in the next year or so…….

 

 

 

 

[jpd80]

24 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Not to mention the Bolt is supposed to continue production at that same plant, which it was supposed to go away. 

The retool can be delayed or cancelled, keeping Bolt at that plant, yes?

 

Some people take me way too literally…….

 

Keep in mind, retooling this plant was to add a second BEV Truck plant,

how or if GM needs this now is all up,in the air because customers are walking away.

Edited October 29, 2023 by jpd80

[AGR]

22 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

It’s not disinformation, it was meant to get people like you focused instead of believing everything that GM says.

GM is telling us it won’t need that plant until 2026 at this point in time, there’s no guarantee  that it will be needed in 2026 either.

I could be further delayed or silently cancelled in the next year or so…….

 

 

The only thing it will get me to do is lump you in with the other anti-EV zealots and just scroll past your posts in the future.

[jpd80]

36 minutes ago, AGR said:

 

The only thing it will get me to do is lump you in with the other anti-EV zealots and just scroll past your posts in the future.

I notice that you’re not ignoring me at the moment so, olive branch time.

Cancelling a plant was lazy short hand on my behalf - reconfiguring an existing plant to add BEV capacity is another thing.

GM saying for now that those plans are delayed until late 2025 should put that plant off the radar.

A second plant for BEV truck production is not needed for now and I doubt that will change in two years time.

[silvrsvt]

44 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

GM saying for now that those plans are delayed until late 2025 should put that plant off the radar.

A second plant for BEV truck production is not needed for now and I doubt that will change in two years time.

 

In the grand scheme of things 18 months or so is nothing (2023 is almost over with-it will be November 2024 12 months from now)...thats about how long it took to get my first Bronco from when I placed my order till it showed up on the dealer lot after the MIC roof debacle....not including the ADM saga.

 

The biggest issue with EVs is the pricing, Interest rates, and maybe a bit over aggressiveness of automakers thinking that the market would take to them easier. I think everything is shifting to the right because of everything in general. I really think there is going to be a general slow down in the auto market in the next 12 months with everything. They keep saying a recession isn't coming but we haven't had "real one" in a very long time and the current administration has changed the definition of one so they don't get blamed.

We are heading into an interesting demographic period were the population is shrinking and aging...so we might see something like 1980s Japan happening world wide over the next 5 years or so.

[jpd80]

58 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

In the grand scheme of things 18 months or so is nothing (2023 is almost over with-it will be November 2024 12 months from now)...thats about how long it took to get my first Bronco from when I placed my order till it showed up on the dealer lot after the MIC roof debacle....not including the ADM saga.

The time is not really the point though, an increase of buyer interest is needed to justify a second BEV Truck plant

and if that doesn’t change, the one BEV Truck plant will continue handling production needs.

 

 

 

Quote

 

The biggest issue with EVs is the pricing, Interest rates, and maybe a bit over aggressiveness of automakers thinking that the market would take to them easier. I think everything is shifting to the right because of everything in general. I really think there is going to be a general slow down in the auto market in the next 12 months with everything. They keep saying a recession isn't coming but we haven't had "real one" in a very long time and the current administration has changed the definition of one so they don't get blamed.

We are heading into an interesting demographic period were the population is shrinking and aging...so we might see something like 1980s Japan happening world wide over the next 5 years or so.

While pricing and interest rates contribute to reduced interest in BEVs, it might well be that

apart for early adopters, the rest of the buying public are just not that interested in BEVs.

In a large country like the US, people probably don’t have any real need for a BEV.

Edited October 29, 2023 by jpd80

[rperez817]

Great story from Ford on how an F-150 Lightning owner in Canada used those trucks to grow his business. Customer Uses F-150 Lightning to Power E-Scooter Business | Ford Media Center

 

Max Rastelli runs HFX e-Scooters in Halifax, Nova Scotia. It’s a business he started in 2019, extending his commitment to alternative mobility solutions to the city.

A longtime Ford F-150® owner, Rastelli was excited when Ford introduced its electric F-150 Lightning® in 2021 and immediately placed a deposit. Rastelli had always been interested in owning an EV, but he needed it to be a truck that could support his business and lifestyle.

Rastelli took delivery of his F-150 Lightning in October 2022, excited to show Halifax residents that not only were his scooters electric, but his truck was also. What started as a way to showcase electric mobility quickly turned into a business accelerator.

 

“It became immediately clear to me that the F-150 Lightning could boost my business productivity as a mobile battery charging station through the use of Pro Power Onboard. Thanks in part to these trucks, I’ve been able to double the number of e-Scooters on my fleet, with near-zero downtime related to charging, making my business twice as efficient. And it doesn’t hurt that this truck is a lot of fun to drive, with its low center of gravity and smooth ride.” Max Rastelli, HFX e-Scooters

 

 

[GearheadGrrrl]

Electric scooters are basically a throwaway venture capital funded means of virtuously burning money... Wonder if he'll ever turn a profit?

[rperez817]

20 minutes ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

Electric scooters are basically a throwaway venture capital funded means of virtuously burning money... Wonder if he'll ever turn a profit?

 

Electric scooters represent one component of the super high growth micromobility sector, which McKinsey said last year "is the only thing that’s up in usage post-COVID-19. Public transit is still down versus pre-COVID-19 levels. Car sharing, e-hailing, ride hailing, and so on are on the same level, maybe a bit up."

 

Mr. Rastelli is a successful businessman. In addition to operating HFX e-Scooters for the past 4 years, Rastelli is also the founder of Segway Nova Scotia, which he has run for 11 years. Segway Nova Scotia - Company Information (segwayns.com) 

Edited November 22, 2023 by rperez817

[DeluxeStang]

17 minutes ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

Electric scooters are basically a throwaway venture capital funded means of virtuously burning money... Wonder if he'll ever turn a profit?

They seem to show promise in urban environments. It seemed like a quarter of the people on my college campus were using some form of e-bike, scooter, or hoverboard to get around. You just need to appeal to the right audience. The companies in Provo appealing to wealthy college students definitely found their audience, and are making money hand over fist.