June '23-Sales Report

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, bzcat said:

You are assuming electricity will forever be generated with fossil fuel, which is just not the case. The power industry is also undergoing significant paradigm shift. The US for example, will be virtually free of coal power by around 2040 to 2045 timeframe. 

With due respect, you don’t know what I’m assuming.  With my background and experience, I will say that my assumptions are based on reality, not wishful thinking.  I want to solve this problem as much as you, but know much of what is accepted as fact is BS.

 

To your point, adding BEVs to the mix will simply keep those coal power plants in play longer.  Our collective goal should be to clean the grid ASAP because BEVs powered with coal do not help matters at all.  Additionally, BEVs powered with natural gas are not much more efficient overall compared to efficient hybrids.  Eliminating coal should have highest priority and if it means a slower transition to BEVs so be it.  If you are correct that coal will be around until 2040~2045, imagine how much harm we are causing today.  Personally, I want emission reductions ASAP, like now and over next few years, not in 20 years when grid is suppose to be much cleaner on marginal loads (lower in GHGs).  

 

Natural gas is far better than coal, but even then it will not power BEVs that much more efficiently compared to hybrids (I mean HEV and not PHEV) that it will cut GHGs in half or close to that.  We need change that starts paying off immediately, not many years from now.  And that “change” involves energy reduction wherever possible.

 

There are people here who constantly accuse others who don’t agree with them that they are afraid of change, when in reality all they are saying is that they only want change they approve of.

 

 

[silvrsvt]

15 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

I live in a rural area where EVs are currently not an option and may never be. But give us a plug in hybrid with a 50 mile range and with 20% of the batteries an equivalent EV uses we could do 80% of our driving on electricity. That's a good deal for everyone, but force EVs on us instead and you'll get zero adoption as we bitterly hang on to our IC vehicles.

Your making the assumption that charging stations will never come to you when that is blatantly wrong.

 

I live in an area that has a decent EV population and the amount of areas to charge at has significantly improved just in the past 12 months or so. 
 

Your just putting your fingers in your ears and stomping your feet because you don’t want to be bothered to change how you do things. 

[fuzzymoomoo]

18 hours ago, rperez817 said:

EVs are now ready for prime time (i.e., as a fully capable substitute for millions of ICE vehicles).

No they aren’t. Not until the charging infrastructure is available to the entire country, not just big cities. 

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

No they aren’t. Not until the charging infrastructure is available to the entire country, not just big cities. 

It’s getting better though.  My son took his first work-related road trip between Houston and Dallas last week and on way up charged Tesla Model 3 (short range) where 21 of 24 Superchargers were available (not being used).  He was able to top off gradually during week at office (slow charging rate), and on way back only required charging for 10 minutes (literally) at a Supercharger to get enough added range to get home.  That 10 minutes was what car estimated it needed to add 35% battery capacity for about extra 80 miles.  Once home he charged in garage overnight at a much lower cost.

 

Supercharger cost was fairly high at $0.37 per kWh, so there isn’t much savings compared to a gasoline car of similar size at present fuel cost.  Cars getting 40 MPG highway can do better at present ~ $3.00/gallon.  He charges well over 90% of time at home, so cost of electricity on road doesn’t concern him.

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by Rick73

[sullynd]

1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

No they aren’t. Not until the charging infrastructure is available to the entire country, not just big cities. 

I’ve owned an EV for over two years and the vast majority of my charging has NOT been in a big city. 

[fuzzymoomoo]

8 minutes ago, sullynd said:

I’ve owned an EV for over two years and the vast majority of my charging has NOT been in a big city. 

you’re the exception, not the rule.

 

Hell, I live in a populated area and I couldn’t tell you where any EV charging stations are other than the 1 at work, the one at a shopping center I’ve seen used once, and the 1 at the Dunkin’ Donuts in Woodhaven I have literally never seen anyone use. And I mean single chargers. 

[silvrsvt]

42 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Hell, I live in a populated area and I couldn’t tell you where any EV charging stations are other than the 1 at work, the one at a shopping center I’ve seen used once, and the 1 at the Dunkin’ Donuts in Woodhaven I have literally never seen anyone use. And I mean single chargers. 

 Assuming Woodhaven, MI

 

https://evstationslocal.com/states/michigan/trenton/

 

Around me

 

https://evstationslocal.com/states/new-jersey/freehold/

 

 

[fuzzymoomoo]

13 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 Assuming Woodhaven, MI

 

https://evstationslocal.com/states/michigan/trenton/

 

Around me

 

https://evstationslocal.com/states/new-jersey/freehold/

 

 

That's a bit misleading. All of those chargers are just single chargers, and to my knowledge none of them are Tesla supercharger stations with multiple spaces. 

[rperez817]

2 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

No they aren’t. Not until the charging infrastructure is available to the entire country, not just big cities. 

 

While there is still a lot of work do to involving build out of public EV charging infrastructure throughout the U.S., it has expanded rapidly since 2019, when Autothink did its research report and made the statement "EVs  are now ready for prime time". That statement was true back then for a lot of big city dwellers, and is true nowadays for an increasing number of people in rural areas too.

 

Transport Evolved put together an excellent video 1 year ago explaining the growth of BEV in rural areas of the U.S.

 

Edited July 15, 2023 by rperez817

[silvrsvt]

 

Tesla Supercharger in Three Rivers,TX, roughly halfway in between San Antonio and Kingsville, TX

 

Not to mention there is a ton of wind turbines going up in that area too..

[sullynd]

4 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

you’re the exception, not the rule.

 

Hell, I live in a populated area and I couldn’t tell you where any EV charging stations are other than the 1 at work, the one at a shopping center I’ve seen used once, and the 1 at the Dunkin’ Donuts in Woodhaven I have literally never seen anyone use. And I mean single chargers. 

Yes,  my experience is the exception rather than yours.  You know, seeing as how I actually regularly charge a BEV and all. Clearly you have a more scientific point of view. 

[Rangers09]

On 7/14/2023 at 1:23 PM, GearheadGrrrl said:

I live in a rural area where EVs are currently not an option and may never be. But give us a plug in hybrid with a 50 mile range and with 20% of the batteries an equivalent EV uses we could do 80% of our driving on electricity. That's a good deal for everyone, but force EVs on us instead and you'll get zero adoption as we bitterly hang on to our IC vehicles.

 

The Escape PHEV states 38 miles, but with careful driving and maximising regenerative braking around town, I am getting 50 miles from a single full charge - note we have only owned it for 6 weeks, so all summer time driving.

 

We even live in the suburbs, although it is the last of the 'burbs before rural and we just got about 1/2 dozen Tesla chargers to add to the other 3 chargers that I know of around town. On a recent 2-week road trip, I found 1 charger, but wasn't prepared to sit for hours waiting for the car to charge, so used the hybrid system to charge the battery.

 

Having just bought a new vehicle and wanting to avail ourselves of our local cheap power, we couldn't care how many chargers will be available in 3, 5 or 7 yrs. We bought the vehicle now and based the decision on what is available now. The PHEV is an exceptional option for our needs, at this time, and I expect an overall electric use of 95%+ locally and 50/50 on road trips.

 

A quote my wife read this morning from a local BEV owner that is a classic - The BEV has eliminated his connection to the pumps, but has also eliminated his roaming. Fortunately we purchased a PHEV, so still get the elimination from the pumps, but can still roam.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Rangers09

[GearheadGrrrl]

17 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

Your making the assumption that charging stations will never come to you when that is blatantly wrong.

 

I live in an area that has a decent EV population and the amount of areas to charge at has significantly improved just in the past 12 months or so. 
 

Your just putting your fingers in your ears and stomping your feet because you don’t want to be bothered to change how you do things. 

Been an early adopter all my life and at 73, I'm not about to quit, so I seriously looked at EVs last time I bought a new car. Where I live the population is so thin the gas stations are having a hard time surviving- Last one in my town closed decades ago and have 4 surviving about 7 miles to the east, south, and west. They're all Indies,  the stations are lacking in capital investment, a sign they won't be around much longer. Nearest up to date stations are 20 miles north and south, 30 miles east, and 40 miles west. If the gas stations are barely surviving, in this county where EVs and plug in hybrids have barely .1% market share, how will a charging station ever pay back the investment? 

 

Even with massive subsidies the charging infrastructure is barely inadequate, and it will get worse as the equipment deteriorates because unlike construction, maintenance isn't subsidized. Tesla and their network is out because there's no support for their vehicles out here. Going north is iffy, a reputed charger halfway to Fargo and a couple on I-29, in both cases not the shortest route. Going east is the best with a couple Munis putting in chargers but given how long they took to come online, repairs will take months too. Going south is worse, even along I-29 they're far apart and not much on the shortest routes which are generally 2 lanes. Going west is pretty hopeless- Again have to go the long way via I-90 or I-94, and chargers are usually a hundred miles or more apart so even one dead charger means an expensive tow bill. As for charging in the big cities, it's usually at expensive hotels and malls I can't afford to patronize- I've yet to see a charger at Costco!

 

So even with massive subsidies charging is largely a perk for wealthy urban dwellers, and will probably never really be available for rural and working class folks.

[Gurgeh]

6 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

Tesla and their network is out because there's no support for their vehicles out here.

 

Uh, due to Tesla's recent deluge of deals with other automakers, everyone will soon be using the Tesla network. It is not out; it is just the opposite. It will soon be the network for the great majority of North American EVs of all makes.

[Rick73]

Supercharger availability is one issue, but let’s not forget charging electrical power has to come from somewhere.  This is not a theoretical problem to be solved in distant future, but one that needs attention today.  And while it is being addressed, I fear it’s not being accomplished fast enough or in a manner to solve the primary underlying problem; which is to reduce GHGs.

 

Tesla Superchargers are reliable, fast and convenient, but plugging even a basic RWD Tesla Model 3 pulls 120 kW.  For reference, that’s about 40 average houses’ worth of air conditioning.  Chargers are rated up to 250 kW so potentially worse.  At least in Texas where the heat wave has the grid at record levels, it’s easy to see that we may not have enough surplus electrical capacity “TODAY” to charge lots of BEVs without risking probability of rolling blackouts.  When fully-utilized Supercharger stations with 24 units start pulling the equivalent of nearly 1,000 homes’ worth of air conditioning each, or more, power will add up.  I just hope we are ready because the first time Texans have blackouts, there will be a lot of angry people wanting answers.

[silvrsvt]

18 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

just hope we are ready because the first time Texans have blackouts, there will be a lot of angry people wanting answers.

 

The thing is that both California and Texas power grids have their own issues and using them as the model for what will happen in the future is disingenuous for the rest of the country. 

 

California has government/regulation issues. Texas has its own power grid that isn't connected to the rest of the country. 

[Rick73]

47 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

The thing is that both California and Texas power grids have their own issues and using them as the model for what will happen in the future is disingenuous for the rest of the country. 

 

California has government/regulation issues. Texas has its own power grid that isn't connected to the rest of the country. 

And what, we are not part of the country?  Instead of being critical, we can learn from Texas as if it were a pilot plant that represents what could happen to rest of country.  Texas has done a good job increasing capacity and renewable energy, but demand has outpaced improvements.  Population is increasing too fast and warmer climate doesn’t help either.  This could happen in other parts of country also.  It’s just easier to notice impact and to quantify in Texas because grid is mostly isolated.

[GearheadGrrrl]

On 7/16/2023 at 6:43 AM, Gurgeh said:

 

Uh, due to Tesla's recent deluge of deals with other automakers, everyone will soon be using the Tesla network. It is not out; it is just the opposite. It will soon be the network for the great majority of North American EVs of all makes.

Access to the TSLA chargers will be helpful, but that's years out and they'll probably be overwhelmed by the increased demand. Right now only Teslas can use that network, and I live so far from TSLA's metro centric dealers that a routine service on a Tesla costs a minimum of $500!

[GearheadGrrrl]

20 hours ago, Rick73 said:

And what, we are not part of the country?  Instead of being critical, we can learn from Texas as if it were a pilot plant that represents what could happen to rest of country.  Texas has done a good job increasing capacity and renewable energy, but demand has outpaced improvements.  Population is increasing too fast and warmer climate doesn’t help either.  This could happen in other parts of country also.  It’s just easier to notice impact and to quantify in Texas because grid is mostly isolated.

 

I live in the middle of a couple gigawatts of wind energy. There's gigawatts more potential wind energy ready to harness out here, but the grid can't handle it... Given the difficulty of permitting new infrastructure like power lines, that wind will probably be "stranded" for decades.

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

 

I live in the middle of a couple gigawatts of wind energy. There's gigawatts more potential wind energy ready to harness out here, but the grid can't handle it... Given the difficulty of permitting new infrastructure like power lines, that wind will probably be "stranded" for decades.

The issue of wind power is very complicated when it starts becoming a significant part of total capacity and we “MUST” depend on it to keep the lights on.  Some people argue that battery storage will make it possible to rely on wind and solar to greater degree, and while I completely agree, their contribution will be limited at some percent.  I don’t know what percent is viable, but beyond that we are just asking for problems.  There has to be a large base of dispatchable generating capacity — the kind you can count on no matter what.

[silvrsvt]

2 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

Right now only Teslas can use that network, and I live so far from TSLA's metro centric dealers that a routine service on a Tesla costs a minimum of $500!

 

How much service do you expect to have done to it? LOL

[HotRunrGuy]

4 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

Access to the TSLA chargers will be helpful, but that's years out and they'll probably be overwhelmed by the increased demand.

 

DEARBORN, Mich., May 25, 2023 – Ford Motor Company said today it reached an agreement with Tesla Motors that will provide Ford electric vehicle customers access to more than 12,000 Tesla Superchargers across the U.S. and Canada, doubling the number of fast-chargers available to Ford EV customers starting Spring 2024.

 

Since you live in a rural area (SW MN), you probably have a private well, so more than likely you have 240V single-phase available to allow you to charge at home.  So, realistically, your need for a charging station starts at about 200 miles away.  Still nothing that fits that description?

 

HRG

Edited July 17, 2023 by HotRunrGuy

[GearheadGrrrl]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

How much service do you expect to have done to it? LOL

The rolling and powered chassis of my '98 Ranger is sitting in front of my shop, and I'm not done with it yet... So you can safely assume that I'll be doing every service procedure up to and including battery cell replacement on any EV I'm able to put in my garage for a couple decades. Tesla has locked down their cars so I can't do that, thus I can't buy a Tesla.

[GearheadGrrrl]

1 hour ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

DEARBORN, Mich., May 25, 2023 – Ford Motor Company said today it reached an agreement with Tesla Motors that will provide Ford electric vehicle customers access to more than 12,000 Tesla Superchargers across the U.S. and Canada, doubling the number of fast-chargers available to Ford EV customers starting Spring 2024.

 

Since you live in a rural area (SW MN), you probably have a private well, so more than likely you have 240V single-phase available to allow you to charge at home.  So, realistically, your need for a charging station starts at about 200 miles away.  Still nothing that fits that description?

 

HRG

No private well here, our newly rebuilt city water system is fed by a rural water system whose pumps are powered by a very reliable REA Co-Op backed up by diesel generators. While I have 220V 200A power available in the garage, unfortunately it's fed by an investor owned utility via a 25 mile long near abandoned 440V line and said utility wishes we'd go away. So no, I don't have reliable power for home charging. 

[akirby]

13 minutes ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

The rolling and powered chassis of my '98 Ranger is sitting in front of my shop, and I'm not done with it yet... So you can safely assume that I'll be doing every service procedure up to and including battery cell replacement on any EV I'm able to put in my garage for a couple decades. Tesla has locked down their cars so I can't do that, thus I can't buy a Tesla.

The point was there isn’t really anything to do other than tires brakes and wipers.