What happened to EVs? The sudden slowdown in electric car sales is a symptom of a much uglier problem

[Rick73]

15 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Problem is that you can’t directly compare prices charged in Europe/UK with USA,

they’re generally 20% higher price.That 35,000 pound expected price for the BEV  Puma 

is why I think Tesla model 2 will be a similar price in Europe….

 

If the Tesla 2 starts in Europe at say, 30,000 pounds, you can see that BEV Puma will

be in trouble as soon as the 2 is launched.

 

Smaller EVs will be profitable in Europe and China but, I just don’t think that price would

work in North America, maybe that’s where Tesla was floating the  $25,000 price but again,

we’ve seen that dance before…

 

From what I’ve found, external width of Puma with mirrors folded is 71” 

maybe take another 3” off that without mirrors.

Interior shoulder room - Front 53” Rear 51.96”

 

 

jpd80, you are correct, Puma is considerably smaller than Mach-E, yet large enough to be in a size class that is popular in Europe.  It’s roughly 3” narrower, 3” lower, and 21” shorter than Mach-E based on information I can find.  If Ford can achieve 35,000 pound cost, that would be roughly 20% lower than Mach-E’s +/- 44,000 in UK.  We’ll have to see if Mach-E sales tank after Puma EV is introduced, or not.  They may not compete directly, but may indicate buyer preferences.

 

Puma EV should compete against cars like electric Peugeot 2008 and Vauxhall Corsa, all sharing design with their ICE and hybrid variants.  I expect sharing platform helps keep initial costs down, but unfortunately also may limit space, weight, and energy efficiency versus an electric-specific platform, as expected from Tesla for Model 2.

 

Tesla should easily beat Puma, Peugeot and Corsa on aerodynamics which will give Model 2 a cost advantage if using smaller battery for equal range, or else will deliver greater range if Tesla uses similar size battery (50~51 kWh).  An older leaked Tesla report suggested Model 2 was budgeted to have 53 kWh battery, so in right ballpark as competitors.

 

Specs for Puma, Peugeot 2008 and Corsa list Cd at 0.32~0.34 which is much higher than Mach-E, and a lot higher than expected from Tesla for Model 2.  An aerodynamic Model 2 with much greater highway range could indeed hurt Ford Puma and Stellantis EV sales in Europe, especially if Model 2 price comes in close to 30,000 pounds.

[Rick73]

16 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Perhaps people now realise that bigger reductions on greenhouse gasses are possible by reducing the use of coal in power generation, replacing it with gas, solar, wind and batteries. Pressing harder with help to achieve that in the first place also gives more time for utilities and power suppliers to improve delivery grid capacity. 

That has been my position since joining this forum.  I think it’s wrong to base GHG emissions based on “average” electricity production.  When making changes what is important are incremental effects associated with making that change.  In a country like China, as example, it’s easier to see that additional BEVs contribute to additional electrical demand, and since China is building coal power plants, the relationship is easier to see and follow.  Granted, they need more electricity for industry and to improve standard of living also, but BEVs “add” to those loads, so have required additional coal power plants than would otherwise been the case.

 

We have similar situation in US, except we’re not building new coal plants, but rather shutting them down.  However, as long as we still have coal plants in operation, adding electrical demand will require keeping them running longer.  Logic suggests to me that if we can reduce electrical demand, we can shut down coal faster, thereby reducing GHGs faster.  Once we eliminate coal (and small amount of oil), calculations should be based on natural gas which is the next dirtiest fuel behind coal, not the new lower “average”.  The way the electrical system operates today, and in foreseeable future, I don’t see a more accurate way to estimate actual real-world impact on environment.

 

It also doesn’t help that some people have been convinced that BEVs powered with coal-generated electricity still produce less GHGs than viable fossil-fuel vehicle alternatives. 

[tbone]

On 1/12/2024 at 11:57 AM, akirby said:

 

Other mfrs Dean.  Toyota is selling 150k hybrid rav4s every year.  

If only Ford could manage to build enough of them.  Their production woes continue and it feels more so than other manufacturers.  

[tbone]

I thought this was interesting and indicative of the current BEV situation.  If this was offered for sale when it originally came out, it certainly would have sold for well over sticker. This one sold for just under the sticker of $106,290, however, with the buyers premium it is technically over sticker.  I wouldn’t have expected the demand for an high end BEV like this to fall off so quickly.  In contrast, a used 2023 Raptor R sold for $127k during this same timeframe. 

[jpd80]

6 hours ago, Rick73 said:

 

jpd80, you are correct, Puma is considerably smaller than Mach-E, yet large enough to be in a size class that is popular in Europe.  It’s roughly 3” narrower, 3” lower, and 21” shorter than Mach-E based on information I can find.  If Ford can achieve 35,000 pound cost, that would be roughly 20% lower than Mach-E’s +/- 44,000 in UK.  We’ll have to see if Mach-E sales tank after Puma EV is introduced, or not.  They may not compete directly, but may indicate buyer preferences.

 

Puma EV should compete against cars like electric Peugeot 2008 and Vauxhall Corsa, all sharing design with their ICE and hybrid variants.  I expect sharing platform helps keep initial costs down, but unfortunately also may limit space, weight, and energy efficiency versus an electric-specific platform, as expected from Tesla for Model 2.

 

Tesla should easily beat Puma, Peugeot and Corsa on aerodynamics which will give Model 2 a cost advantage if using smaller battery for equal range, or else will deliver greater range if Tesla uses similar size battery (50~51 kWh).  An older leaked Tesla report suggested Model 2 was budgeted to have 53 kWh battery, so in right ballpark as competitors.

 

Specs for Puma, Peugeot 2008 and Corsa list Cd at 0.32~0.34 which is much higher than Mach-E, and a lot higher than expected from Tesla for Model 2.  An aerodynamic Model 2 with much greater highway range could indeed hurt Ford Puma and Stellantis EV sales in Europe, especially if Model 2 price comes in close to 30,000 pounds.

Considering Ford Europe’s approaching BEV line up for passenger vehicles:

1. BEV Puma covers popular subcompact crossover utility segment (and much nicer than Ecosport)

2.  BEV Explorer covers that EV Escape compact utility segment

3. BEV Capri crossover sort of covers buyers wanting something between Puma and Explorer

4. BEV Mustang Mach E  sells as a sportier long wheelbase vehicle but I wonder if Euro buyers prefer the Explorer.

 

Apart from being cautiously optimistic, we have no idea how or if Ford will attract buyers to these vehicles

over the VW offerings like ID4, ID5 or the Up electric vehicle or Peugeot/Stellantis or even Tesla 3, Y and coming 2.

 

I don’t think the CD weighs in as much as you think in Europe. That’s because of population density and

reality that much of the  intended travel and distances  is done at less than highway speeds and more

like urban/suburban speeds.

 

The popularity of subcompact vehicles also reduces power consumption needs even at lower speeds

where the drag caused by higher than desirable CD exists simply because people prefer short bulky

people carriers that are much easier to park and ride in than a dart shaped vehicle.

Edited January 13 by jpd80

[jpd80]

5 hours ago, Rick73 said:

That has been my position since joining this forum.  I think it’s wrong to base GHG emissions based on “average” electricity production.  When making changes what is important are incremental effects associated with making that change.  In a country like China, as example, it’s easier to see that additional BEVs contribute to additional electrical demand, and since China is building coal power plants, the relationship is easier to see and follow.  Granted, they need more electricity for industry and to improve standard of living also, but BEVs “add” to those loads, so have required additional coal power plants than would otherwise been the case.

 

We have similar situation in US, except we’re not building new coal plants, but rather shutting them down.  However, as long as we still have coal plants in operation, adding electrical demand will require keeping them running longer.  Logic suggests to me that if we can reduce electrical demand, we can shut down coal faster, thereby reducing GHGs faster.  Once we eliminate coal (and small amount of oil), calculations should be based on natural gas which is the next dirtiest fuel behind coal, not the new lower “average”.  The way the electrical system operates today, and in foreseeable future, I don’t see a more accurate way to estimate actual real-world impact on environment.

 

It also doesn’t help that some people have been convinced that BEVs powered with coal-generated electricity still produce less GHGs than viable fossil-fuel vehicle alternatives. 

I guess governments and industries are trying to do all the changes at once to avoid being singled out as laggards

but I have a big issue with conscripting buyers to electric vehicles before the technology and infrastructure is ready.

 

The greening of the power grid should be priority one as should increasing roof top domestic solar installations,

not so much about selling power back to utilities but to permanently take pressure off the grid for domestic 

power consumption until wider electrification begins and the supporting public charging infrastructure develops.

 

No politics here, encouraging industry and power users in the right direction is one thing but prematurely 

regulating against gasoline and diesel before we’re ready for mass migration is a mistake that could cost

billions and actually set back the whole cause…

 

[Deanh]

On 1/12/2024 at 9:57 AM, akirby said:

 

Other mfrs Dean.  Toyota is selling 150k hybrid rav4s every year.  

got it....doesnt say much about Fords "all in " mentality regarding BEVs does it??? grrrrrrr......but you take $$$ from the Govt you basically bet TOLD what to do...

Edited January 15 by Deanh

[Rick73]

On 1/13/2024 at 4:21 PM, jpd80 said:

 

No politics here, encouraging industry and power users in the right direction is one thing but prematurely 

regulating against gasoline and diesel before we’re ready for mass migration is a mistake that could cost

billions and actually set back the whole cause…

Last summer we were asked to conserve electricity numerous times on hot days, and now were just asked to conserve again tomorrow for fear of overloading our Texas grid due to an arctic blast.  Obviously most BEV owners can probably delay home charging until peak loads pass, but I wonder how many will actually do it.  More importantly, what about all the 100~250 kW fast chargers along highways people will need to use to reach their destinations?

 

I don’t mind running dishwasher or washing clothes early as requested to reduce loads tomorrow, but these are small loads compared to a 250 kW Supercharger.  For now BEVs are very small percentage of vehicles on highways, but as we reach 50~100% BEVs, shortages could get critical unless we add a lot of power plants.

[Deanh]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

Last summer we were asked to conserve electricity numerous times on hot days, and now were just asked to conserve again tomorrow for fear of overloading our Texas grid due to an arctic blast.  Obviously most BEV owners can probably delay home charging until peak loads pass, but I wonder how many will actually do it.  More importantly, what about all the 100~250 kW fast chargers along highways people will need to use to reach their destinations?

 

I don’t mind running dishwasher or washing clothes early as requested to reduce loads tomorrow, but these are small loads compared to a 250 kW Supercharger.  For now BEVs are very small percentage of vehicles on highways, but as we reach 50~100% BEVs, shortages could get critical unless we add a lot of power plants.

......

Which state has the most solar and wind energy?

 

 

 

Texas

 

And it's no coincidence, since Texas has also led the nation in wind-powered electricity generation for over a decade, producing nearly 26 percent of U.S. wind energy in 2021. (Texas is on its way to beating California as the leader in utility-scale solar, too.)

[Rick73]

5 hours ago, Deanh said:

......

Which state has the most solar and wind energy?

 

 

 

Texas

 

And it's no coincidence, since Texas has also led the nation in wind-powered electricity generation for over a decade, producing nearly 26 percent of U.S. wind energy in 2021. (Texas is on its way to beating California as the leader in utility-scale solar, too.)

 

I found it interesting that ERCOT is requesting conservation in particular between 6:00 and 11:00 AM, and then again between 5:00 and 9:00 PM tomorrow.  I expect early morning is when Texans start to get out of bed, turning up heat and cooking breakfast.  Electric hot water at that time can also add a lot to loads.

 

Late morning, outdoor temperatures should ease up a bit, and also solar production goes up, giving us a bit more breathing room.  Later in evening solar dies and it gets cold again, causing more of a shortage.

 

When I checked a while ago, we were getting 28% electricity from wind, none from solar.

 

[Rick73]

P.S. — For clarification, the graph above is a segment of 24-hour graph from yesterday, showing power percentages.  Below is full graph.  Solar is good but limited to a few hours a day.

 

 

 

[Captainp4]

Solar, in theory, could provide all of our power with a relatively small area of coverage.. but it requires large amounts of battery storage and so far that is expensive and slow going, but there are companies making progress. Even if you don't pair it with solar it can help even out supply/demand. If I remember correctly from the last Tesla share holder update the megapack is the quickest growing part of the company right now. https://www.tesla.com/megapack This can also work with a number of different "mechanical batteries" that pump water or weight up when there's excess and then drain it back down when in need. Moving the storage to individual homes with powerall (or similar) or using the actual BEV to help store and manage power are also possibilities that are becoming more available, albeit still quite pricey and a hard sell for most because the payoff takes so long and it's so expensive. So many different companies building battery facilities and ramping production it's hard to imagine prices for all this stuff won't start to come down in the near future.

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, Captainp4 said:

Solar, in theory, could provide all of our power with a relatively small area of coverage.. but it requires large amounts of battery storage and so far that is expensive and slow going, but there are companies making progress. Even if you don't pair it with solar it can help even out supply/demand. If I remember correctly from the last Tesla share holder update the megapack is the quickest growing part of the company right now. https://www.tesla.com/megapack This can also work with a number of different "mechanical batteries" that pump water or weight up when there's excess and then drain it back down when in need. Moving the storage to individual homes with powerall (or similar) or using the actual BEV to help store and manage power are also possibilities that are becoming more available, albeit still quite pricey and a hard sell for most because the payoff takes so long and it's so expensive. So many different companies building battery facilities and ramping production it's hard to imagine prices for all this stuff won't start to come down in the near future.

 

This comment makes me wonder the lifespan of these home battery packs - wouldn't they have the same issues with long term charging/depleting that vehicles, phones, etc. would have?  The long term cost payoff has to make it worth buying the battery before it goes bad.

[akirby]

20 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

This comment makes me wonder the lifespan of these home battery packs - wouldn't they have the same issues with long term charging/depleting that vehicles, phones, etc. would have?  The long term cost payoff has to make it worth buying the battery before it goes bad.

Yep they all have that issue to some degree.  Thats why I like mechanical batteries that store kinetic energy.  Store energy from solar during the day to use at night or store at night from power plants during off peak time to use during peak times.  Simple and effective.

[jpd80]

19 hours ago, Rick73 said:

 

I found it interesting that ERCOT is requesting conservation in particular between 6:00 and 11:00 AM, and then again between 5:00 and 9:00 PM tomorrow.  I expect early morning is when Texans start to get out of bed, turning up heat and cooking breakfast.  Electric hot water at that time can also add a lot to loads.

 

Late morning, outdoor temperatures should ease up a bit, and also solar production goes up, giving us a bit more breathing room.  Later in evening solar dies and it gets cold again, causing more of a shortage.

 

When I checked a while ago, we were getting 28% electricity from wind, none from solar.
 

That particular problem is clearly a shortage of power at peak loadings.

Solar and wind could definitely be affected by current weather conditions but I’m wondering if it’s more about

things like gas peaker plants having issues with the cold or maybe even insufficient distribution grid when

transferring power at max loadings - the transmission lines may not be able to send enough power to where

its needed to even out supply. Power utilities might also be biasing supply to commercial supplies and asking

etail customers to take the hit…..just sayin’ that there could a few possibilities….

 

 

Edited January 16 by jpd80

[Captainp4]

20 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

This comment makes me wonder the lifespan of these home battery packs - wouldn't they have the same issues with long term charging/depleting that vehicles, phones, etc. would have?  The long term cost payoff has to make it worth buying the battery before it goes bad.

Quick google says the Tesla one has a 10 year warranty, but batteries generally don't just completely fail at some point - they just don't hold as much juice. I haven't looked into it very thoroughly, the roof of my house isn't optimal for solar, but I'm putting up a pretty big garage in the next few months and plan to look into solar/battery storage after it's built to see if it's worth it to me. Sounds like it on the surface with both of us wanting to get into a BEV for our daily drivers in the next few years. There's tons of different options at different price points and capacities, like most anything else likely depends on use case and location if it makes sense or not.

[Rick73]

I’ve thought of adding simple low-cost solar/battery/inverter system as a backup when we have power failures, but with limited capacity to power fridge, lights, coffee maker and microwave.  Basically the same type of system normally installed on an RV, and with only goal of eliminating need for a portable generator.  For major power generation and storage, I’ll let the power company do it professionally in volume.  Cost savings alone doesn’t interest me enough.  Besides, I would guess commercial solar and storage must be cheaper in the long run.

[Captainp4]

24 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

I’ve thought of adding simple low-cost solar/battery/inverter system as a backup when we have power failures, but with limited capacity to power fridge, lights, coffee maker and microwave.  Basically the same type of system normally installed on an RV, and with only goal of eliminating need for a portable generator.  For major power generation and storage, I’ll let the power company do it professionally in volume.  Cost savings alone doesn’t interest me enough.  Besides, I would guess commercial solar and storage must be cheaper in the long run.

I set up a solar/battery/inverter system on my work trailer (lawn care) and it powers everything that I've converted to battery so far with ease - mostly all the two stroke stuff and one small mower. Haven't made the leap yet on the larger 60" commercial mowers. I have 800 watts of panels and around 400aH of storage with a 3k watt inverter - works great and will have paid for itself in gas/2 stroke mix oil savings about half way through my second season with it this year. Was surprisingly easy to setup, and only around 3k total even with all the interior wiring/conduit/receptacles. I also added insulation and lighting and we use it as a basic camper on our atv trips now and have heat/ac in it so that's a nice bonus. The ease of install and performance makes me more confident about setting up a garage/house system for myself, but I still have some reading to do when I get there.

 

[HotRunrGuy]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

I’ve thought of adding simple low-cost solar/battery/inverter system as a backup when we have power failures, but with limited capacity to power fridge, lights, coffee maker and microwave.  Basically the same type of system normally installed on an RV, and with only goal of eliminating need for a portable generator.  For major power generation and storage, I’ll let the power company do it professionally in volume.  Cost savings alone doesn’t interest me enough.  Besides, I would guess commercial solar and storage must be cheaper in the long run.

 

IMO, most power outages don't occur on bright sunny days, so the solar aspect probably won't add to your power generation equation when you need to start depleting the battery bank.

 

HRG

[Captainp4]

16 minutes ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

IMO, most power outages don't occur on bright sunny days, so the solar aspect probably won't add to your power generation equation when you need to start depleting the battery bank.

 

HRG

Solar still produces on cloudy/rainy days, just not as efficiently. You can oversize the system to make sure it still produces enough in those conditions, have larger battery backup, or even plug a generator into most systems if those options are depleted. All depends how much power you're using vs producing and for how long you're going to be doing it.

[Deanh]

14 minutes ago, Captainp4 said:

Solar still produces on cloudy/rainy days, just not as efficiently. You can oversize the system to make sure it still produces enough in those conditions, have larger battery backup, or even plug a generator into most systems if those options are depleted. All depends how much power you're using vs producing and for how long you're going to be doing it.

tell that to Texas....Solar is definitely somewhat dependent on location...now California on the other hand.....and defintely looks like youve got a hand on it...extremely well done ! 

[mackinaw]

Back to the original topic, one more reason that the EV's are struggling is that they do not like the cold weather.  The midwest has been experiencing bitter cold temperatures for the past several days.  It's so cold the batteries on some Tesla's  won't accept a charge and others take hours to charge, that is if the charger works.  Read more here:  Chicago-area Tesla charging stations lined with dead cars in freezing cold: 'A bunch of dead robots out here'

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/chicago-area-tesla-charging-stations-lined-with-dead-cars-in-freezing-cold-a-bunch-of-dead-robots-out-here

[rmc523]

3 hours ago, Captainp4 said:

Quick google says the Tesla one has a 10 year warranty, but batteries generally don't just completely fail at some point - they just don't hold as much juice. I haven't looked into it very thoroughly, the roof of my house isn't optimal for solar, but I'm putting up a pretty big garage in the next few months and plan to look into solar/battery storage after it's built to see if it's worth it to me. Sounds like it on the surface with both of us wanting to get into a BEV for our daily drivers in the next few years. There's tons of different options at different price points and capacities, like most anything else likely depends on use case and location if it makes sense or not.

 

Right, I wasn't implying it'd stop working completely - I was meaning more as it starts degrading.

[Rick73]

Saw charging difficulties in Chicago reported on national news yesterday.  There were lots of pissed drivers waiting for hours.  I’d bet some/many of those will not buy BEVs for next vehicle.

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

IMO, most power outages don't occur on bright sunny days, so the solar aspect probably won't add to your power generation equation when you need to start depleting the battery bank.

 

HRG

Over a week without power after hurricanes a few times.  Basic needs become a big deal.  Once storm passes, it can be quite sunny — which is worse due to heat.