mettech Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Any bets that Ford will file Bankruptcy within 12 months? :stats: It looks like Chrysler may come out of BR in less than 6 weeks. And the world didn't come to an end. GM may take slightly longer, but with the zero debit, new UAW agreement and no cost dealership reduction..... Ford may be looking at the long term significants of unequal competitors. There is no way the Ford can pay off the debt + interest and complete with GM and Chrysler with 0 debt. GM and Chrysler will kill Ford with lower overhead and will be able to offer bigger rebates. After Ford sees that people will buy cars from a BR company..... and they can get better terms with the UAW.... Why not file??? :reading: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 There is no way the Ford can pay off the debt + interest and complete with GM and Chrysler with 0 debt. Where do you people keep coming up with this malarkey? Ford has already reduced its debt load significantly without bankruptcy. Their overall debt load is now on par with what Toyota is carrying. Are you going to suggest that Toyota will file bankruptcy as well? Whatever concessions GM and Chrysler further milk from the UAW, Ford will likely be able to implement itself outside of bankruptcy also. Ford still has ample cash to carry it well through 2009. If the market recovers at all in 2010, which seems likely at this point, there is very little chance of bankruptcy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bored of Pisteon Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Where do you people keep coming up with this malarkey? Ford has already reduced its debt load significantly without bankruptcy. Their overall debt load is now on par with what Toyota is carrying. Are you going to suggest that Toyota will file bankruptcy as well? Whatever concessions GM and Chrysler further milk from the UAW, Ford will likely be able to implement itself outside of bankruptcy also. Ford still has ample cash to carry it well through 2009. If the market recovers at all in 2010, which seems likely at this point, there is very little chance of bankruptcy. I think the chances of Toyota filing for bankruptcy are much better than Ford right now. Their sales numbers are dropping also. The stock price is way, way overinflated and the quality is slipping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mettech Posted June 2, 2009 Author Share Posted June 2, 2009 Where do you people keep coming up with this malarkey? Ford has already reduced its debt load significantly without bankruptcy. Their overall debt load is now on par with what Toyota is carrying. Are you going to suggest that Toyota will file bankruptcy as well? Whatever concessions GM and Chrysler further milk from the UAW, Ford will likely be able to implement itself outside of bankruptcy also. Ford still has ample cash to carry it well through 2009. If the market recovers at all in 2010, which seems likely at this point, there is very little chance of bankruptcy. Money runs out in < 18 months at the current burn rate. The interest alone will require Ford to charge more per unit than GM and Chy and they will have better terms with the UAW. Ford held out longer than the others, but they too will need a restart. Toyota current stock price will keep the healthy and they have no heavy legacy overhead. Nick.. and everyone ... I say it is 50/50 at best that Ford files. What is your prediction? FYI Ford balance sheet. Link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomServo92 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Money runs out in < 18 months at the current burn rate. Assumption: Burn rate will remain consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Money runs out in < 18 months at the current burn rate. If you haven't been paying attention to Ford's quarterly earnings, their burn rate has been steadily decreasing. The interest alone will require Ford to charge more per unit than GM and Chy and they will have better terms with the UAW. The amount required to service Ford's existing debt (especially if they do another debt-for-equity swap) will be negligible as a new-vehicle expense. The UAW agreements between GM/Chrysler will almost certainly be duplicated for Ford -- they have been so far. Ford held out longer than the others, but they too will need a restart. HUHH?? Ford already restarted years ago, hence why they have held out longer. You have it all backwards. Toyota current stock price will keep the healthy and they have no heavy legacy overhead. What does stock price have to do with their books and ability to avoid bankruptcy? Absolutely nothing. Nick.. and everyone ... I say it is 50/50 at best that Ford files. What is your prediction? 5% chance of, 95% not gonna happen. Ford's market performance (it's time to start ignoring the overall market now, since Ford is showing they are outpacing it) would need to take a severe hit in order for their long term chances of survival to dwindle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ausrutherford Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 ford Family wouldnt let it happen anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 I think the chances of Toyota filing for bankruptcy are much better than Ford right now. Their sales numbers are dropping also. The stock price is way, way overinflated and the quality is slipping. Don't forget to mention they've taken bailout money from the Japanese gov't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 There is no way the Ford can pay off the debt + interest and complete with GM and Chrysler with 0 debt. What happens to all the money given to GM and Chrysler from the feds? Is that money considered to be a loan, and therefore to be repaid (perhaps with no interest accrued)? Or is the money all gratis? If the money "purchased" an ownership position in GM and Chrysler, wouldn't it be in the interest of GM and Chrysler to pay it back, and buy their freedom (assuming they become profitable enough to do so)? Whichever scenario it is (other than free money, which I doubt), then GM and Chrysler aren't really going to be "debt free", if they ultimately seek to pay back either a loan, or buy out an ownership stake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme4x4 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 mettech, where the hell do you come up with this baloney??? Or, should we say, wishful thinking??? You forgot one thing, in your "rainbows and daisies" outlook, for GM and Chrysler. Will their sales remain the same, without HUGE discounts?? That is the million dollar question. There is a huge amount of bad will associated with both, at this time. People are pissed. Thus, the only way they will get people to buy, is to out Kia, Kia. That is not the formula for success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Right. The market is improving, Ford's improving even faster, consumer confidence levels are starting to rise, and suddenly Ford's at risk of filing Ch. 11? If 2008 didn't force Ford into Ch. 11, 2009 won't. ---- And we'll just see how many people go flocking back to GM & Chrysler showrooms------if they're still open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 oh, and let's talk revenue. GM & Chrysler are all but closing shop in Q3. Know how much revenue your plant generates when it's not running? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark B. Morrow Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 oh, and let's talk revenue. GM & Chrysler are all but closing shop in Q3. Know how much revenue your plant generates when it's not running? Ooh Ooh, I know this one. It is ZERO! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timmm55 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Ooh Ooh, I know this one. It is ZERO! Mr. Kotter! Mr. Kotter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Mary3 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Where do you people keep coming up with this malarkey? Ford has already reduced its debt load significantly without bankruptcy. Their overall debt load is now on par with what Toyota is carrying. Are you going to suggest that Toyota will file bankruptcy as well? ......... Don't even go there! Toyota Motor's market cap. is over $216.7B, vs. Ford's $18.4B. Toyota has nearly double the revenue. In short, Toyota is a MUCH larger company than Ford. Ford shouldn't have 25% of the debt Toyota is carrying. That having been said, Toyota isn't exactly profitable at this point either. But they have the ability to borrow significantly and they have many assets that could be sold, so there is virtually no chance TM would have to declare backruptcy. So, the question is will Ford declare Chapter 11. From what I understand, if sales do not significantly improve by the second quarter of 2010, Ford could be in trouble. Ford is growing a little market share right now. That is good, but they need to grow more and more importantly hold on to their gains. Chrysler is not going to be competitive for 2-3 more years. GM is a wild card. All you can do is wait and see. At this point, I wouldn't bet on it either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Mary3 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 oh, and let's talk revenue. GM & Chrysler are all but closing shop in Q3. Know how much revenue your plant generates when it's not running? Lots of unsold cars on the lots that GM holds title to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Lots of unsold cars on the lots that GM holds title to. Only if they are on GM lots. GM doesn't own the vehicles already at dealerships. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Don't even go there! Toyota Motor's market cap. is over $216.7B, vs. Ford's $18.4B. Toyota has nearly double the revenue. In short, Toyota is a MUCH larger company than Ford. Ford shouldn't have 25% of the debt Toyota is carrying. That having been said, Toyota isn't exactly profitable at this point either. But they have the ability to borrow significantly and they have many assets that could be sold, so there is virtually no chance TM would have to declare backruptcy. So, the question is will Ford declare Chapter 11. From what I understand, if sales do not significantly improve by the second quarter of 2010, Ford could be in trouble. Ford is growing a little market share right now. That is good, but they need to grow more and more importantly hold on to their gains. Chrysler is not going to be competitive for 2-3 more years. GM is a wild card. All you can do is wait and see. At this point, I wouldn't bet on it either way. Indicators are that the situation WILL improve throughout the rest of 2009 and into 2010 though, making the likelihood of bankruptcy near nil. They still had nearly $20B in cash on hand at the end of the second quarter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
probeGT Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Ooh Ooh, I know this one. It is ZERO! Now THAT's funny! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Don't even go there! Toyota Motor's market cap. is over $216.7B, vs. Ford's $18.4B. Market cap has nothing to do with Toyota's financial capabilities as a company - it's simply the value of their outstanding stock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cougarpower Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 GM will come out of BK but that doesnt mean that all the debt will magically dissapear, GM will come out with close to 20 billion in debt and right now thats Ford Automotive debt, in Ford financial statements the Total company debt its at about 150 billion but 130 billion are from FoMoCo credit with all the loans so Fords true debt its 20 something billion and Im betting my pants that in the coming months they might do a stock for debt exchange and could wipe about 10 billion out of the debt so by the time GM and Chrysler come out of the woods Ford will be leaner and in a roll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Mary3 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Only if they are on GM lots. GM doesn't own the vehicles already at dealerships. Not true. Most of the vehicles you see at the dealerships are still owned by the manufacturer. In essence, the dealership leases the new vehicle until it is sold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PREMiERdrum Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Not true. Most of the vehicles you see at the dealerships are still owned by the manufacturer. In essence, the dealership leases the new vehicle until it is sold. Not true. The vehicles are financed through a lender or bank, sometimes GMAC of Ford Credit or whoever. They show on the books as "units sold." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 Most of the vehicles you see at the dealerships are still owned by the manufacturer. They're collateralized, that's all. Proof? Chrysler will not be taking back any inventory pursuant to their franchise cancellations. That should pretty well demonstrate who owns that inventory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hydro Posted June 3, 2009 Share Posted June 3, 2009 I think Ford will be ok because Most people won't touch GM or Chrysler because they took bail-out money. Even on anti-Big 3 sites people are taking notice of Ford and will actually consider them for the next car. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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