Ford August 2016 Sales Down 8%

[jpd80]

The mood on the floor at MAP was somber at best last night. Most agree with you and are pissed off that Ford is dragging their heels with the Ranger. More and more of us are worried that our jobs will be gone (at lease semi-permanently) by this time next year while Focus sales continue to collapse. De-contenting it for 2017 sure as hell isnt going to help.

I have to wonder (and you may be able to find out) whether plants like MAP and Louisville received upgrades thanks to

UAW offering to for go VEBA funding from Ford in return for greater product investment, maybe that funding has now

run it course and the vehicles being allowed to be wound down until Ford is ready for the next product surge.

 

What would Ford's goals be here, a reduction of work force ahead of reconfiguring MAP for Ranger and presumably Bronco,

what happens at FRAP and Louisville - does the third shift go to Mexico asa possible overflow plant?

 

Suspicions must be aroused as we go into a slow down ahead of the next contract negotiation and product cycle discussions,

is this all a covert strategy to increase ROIs on vehicles without appearing to alienate the current work force?

Perhaps what isn't being said is a red flag to what may be looming, I feel for the people who build our fine cars.

Edited September 3, 2016 by jpd80

[fuzzymoomoo]

FRAP would just do what they did the last time Mustang sales took a nosedive: eliminate 2nd shift. Their saving grace right now is the Continental and foreign Mustangs. If it weren't for those, a lot of people would be very nervous right now.

[jasonj80]

AN reported this afternoon that the full emerging market B program was being killed this week SUV, sedan, and hatchback full program. If you're not in engineering at Ford right now I'd be worried, heard from a buddy this evening that another senior hourly buyout will probably be happening next year as well and the timing of launches is roomed to being changed. The Escape is being studied to launch before Focus and what needs to change to make that happen, and the first electric vehicle might be SUV and not car even if it pushes the launch 6 months.

[justins]

AN reported this afternoon that the full emerging market B program was being killed this week SUV, sedan, and hatchback full program. If you're not in engineering at Ford right now I'd be worried, heard from a buddy this evening that another senior hourly buyout will probably be happening next year as well and the timing of launches is roomed to being changed. The Escape is being studied to launch before Focus and what needs to change to make that happen, and the first electric vehicle might be SUV and not car even if it pushes the launch 6 months.

 

That makes sense, actually. More margin in CUVs and market is growing, whereas hatches are a shrinking market.

[jpd80]

AN reported this afternoon that the full emerging market B program was being killed this week SUV, sedan, and hatchback full program. If you're not in engineering at Ford right now I'd be worried,

Scrapping separate BRIC B500 Car, Utility and Hatchback does not necessarily mean the main program is affected.

Perhaps Ford is looking to base all vehicles off the new B platform - mayb that one is still just an evolution of the current

platform. If so, this has been in the works as an alternative for quite some time -

 

 

Ford's decision, communicated to its suppliers in July, follows a similar move by General Motors to postpone the launch in India of a new $5 billion family of compact vehicles.

 

Ford's program is on ice because of muted demand for some of its small and mid-sized hatchbacks and sedans in India and China, where SUVs and "crossovers" combining the hatchback and SUV have proved increasingly popular.

 

The cost of upgrading plants to produce the new cars would also be prohibitively high, the sources following Ford said.

 

Ford and GM about to batten down the hatches?

 

 

 

 

 

 

heard from a buddy this evening that another senior hourly buyout will probably be happening next year as well and the timing of launches is roomed to being changed. The Escape is being studied to launch before Focus and what needs to change to make that happen, and the first electric vehicle might be SUV and not car even if it pushes the launch 6 months.

This is the logical next step, not surprising at all.

Edited September 3, 2016 by jpd80

[MKII]

AN reported this afternoon that the full emerging market B program was being killed this week SUV, sedan, and hatchback full program. If you're not in engineering at Ford right now I'd be worried, heard from a buddy this evening that another senior hourly buyout will probably be happening next year as well and the timing of launches is roomed to being changed. The Escape is being studied to launch before Focus and what needs to change to make that happen, and the first electric vehicle might be SUV and not car even if it pushes the launch 6 months.

The wording in the article is "Ford Motor Co. has shelved plans to produce a new compact vehicle family designed mainly for emerging markets such as India and China. India and China were expected to be the main manufacturing hubs for the new B500 range, slated to begin production in 2018 and to include a premium sedan, hatchback and crossover, two sources with direct knowledge of Ford's plans. The automaker had also planned to build the new models in Brazil, Russia and Thailand, one of the sources said."

 

& UPDATED: 9/2/16 11:43 am ET - corrected

Editor's note: An earlier version of this story mischaracterized GM's plans to postpone the launch of a new $5 billion family of compact vehicles for emerging markets.

Edited September 3, 2016 by MKII

[jpd80]

That was reported in July

 

 

Ford India's Honda City rivalling sedan based on B500 platform shelved: Report

July 26, 2016 19:36 IST - LINK

 

American car-maker Ford's last two launches in India -- the Figo hatchback and Aspire sedan -- are not churning out good number of sales for the company compared to its rivals. Following the lacklustre performance, Ford India has reportedly reworked on the strategies and shelved the much-talked-about B500 platform.

 

Ford India has been actively considering a sedan based on the B500 platform to be pitted against the Honda City. This sedan is touted to be the successor of Fiesta report ET Auto. It was also considered to be the first project from Ford India's R&D division and the car was supposed to be introduced in 2018. With the red signal to the project, the company will focus on marketing and after-sales service operations of the existing models.

[BORG]

Ford is having a very difficult time launching into emerging markets, which may not be a bad thing considering the price pressures and the importance of volume to absorb those tight margins. But from a strategic point of view you don't want to try and enter a market once it's matured and established, especially since the car has become a commodity with branding and marketing being the only important differentiator. I do think this will likely mean Ford's share of the global market will continue to decline and I know that's going to put allot of pressure on their leadership if their main markets are also softening which is where the money is made.

 

The only problem with cancelling projects is that you already spent money and time doing it and now you have to spend money and time doing it over again to change your strategy, further delaying any correction.

 

I do think Ford is likely scrapping some product plans for NA and EU as we speak (or will be deciding on that soon). So I would not be surprised for example if Taurus is finally cut or Ranger is axed (My understanding is that Ford has not actually greenlit Ranger for the US but remains committed to doing something with MAP).

Edited September 4, 2016 by BORG

[BORG]

 

Subprime customers are propping up the car market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If you would rather have Ford taking gigantic losses in a couple years when they have to write off all those loans.......................................

 

 

That's a pretty big prop if Ford is loosing the most of them. Where are they going?

[fuzzymoomoo]

 

I do think Ford is likely scrapping some product plans for NA and EU as we speak (or will be deciding on that soon). So I would not be surprised for example if Taurus is finally cut or Ranger is axed (My understanding is that Ford has not actually greenlit Ranger for the US but remains committed to doing something with MAP).

For me to be hearing of target launch dates from local UAW reps tells me that the Ranger has been green-lit. The one that makes me raise an eyebrow is the Bronco. I have my doubts since it's supposedly 3 years away at least, and that's already on an accelerated launch schedule.

Edited September 4, 2016 by fuzzymoomoo

[RichardJensen]

 

 

That's a pretty big prop if Ford is loosing the most of them. Where are they going?

 

GM & Chrysler for starters. GM's delinquency rate is like an order of magnitude higher than Ford's.

[jpd80]

Look at FCA's lower ATP for August, no wonder it attracted more retail buyers than Ford.

 

and I bet a healthy portion of them were financed too...

 

 

 

With regards to projects being cancelled, I suspect the emphasis and priority of vehicles required

will change, the major areas affected will be the redesign of Figo and Fiesta for BRIC. Those were

always going to be low budget cars that will be replaced by more popular Utility options.

 

I'm more interested to see what happens with respect to timings with next Escape / Kuga and Ecosport,

those will affect North America obliquely but not to a major degree. I wonder if EV project has suffered

a setback......Maybe Mexico plans get dialled back a touch?

Edited September 4, 2016 by jpd80

[jasonj80]

I'd make the argument that the Bronco has much higher ATP and sales potential than a US Ranger.

[jpd80]

That's pretty open ended thinking considering that we don't know what exact form Bronco will take and how it would be priced.

Gauging Ranger response is much easier considering the relative success and high sales of Crew Cab Colorado/Canyon.

 

We do know that Ford is probably doing both but the Ranger will take the lion's share of sales (~12K per month)

Edited September 4, 2016 by jpd80

[sullynd]

That's a pretty big prop if Ford is loosing the most of them. Where are they going?

For your sake, at this point, I hope it's intentional.

[silvrsvt]

Do keep in mind that if the Bronco is launching in three years, if the economy/car sales start contracting, the average recession lasts about 12-24 months and would be in a good position to launch if the economy is hopefully growing again.

 

Then again it hasn't "felt" like the last Recession never really recovered either...

[Biker16]

For next 2-3 years ford will have little new products to offer.

 

The Ranger and Bronco will not launch into today's market but into a very different market 3 years from. and IMO will not be as successful as many here hope it will be.

CAFE, higher Fuel prices, Carbon Tax, all-new wrangler, and wrangler pickup, refreshed GM midsize pickup.

 

I think ford is moving too slow, and is reacting to the market instead of leading the market. as a result their products seem out of touch with market growth.

 

 

The wording in the article is "Ford Motor Co. has shelved plans to produce a new compact vehicle family designed mainly for emerging markets such as India and China. India and China were expected to be the main manufacturing hubs for the new B500 range, slated to begin production in 2018 and to include a premium sedan, hatchback and crossover, two sources with direct knowledge of Ford's plans. The automaker had also planned to build the new models in Brazil, Russia and Thailand, one of the sources said."

 

& UPDATED: 9/2/16 11:43 am ET - corrected

Editor's note: An earlier version of this story mischaracterized GM's plans to postpone the launch of a new $5 billion family of compact vehicles for emerging markets.

 

I don't understand what Ford's platform strategy is.I understand what Toyota,Nissan and VW are doing to reduce development cost long-term. But ford apparent Strategy is to continue to evolve existing platforms which they have traditionally been unable afford to maintain.

 

what will cgange over the next 3-4 years to bend the product development cost curve to allow for more and better products to be produced faster and at a cost ford can afford?

[twintornados]

For next 2-3 years ford will have little new products to offer.

 

The Ranger and Bronco will not launch into today's market but into a very different market 3 years from. and IMO will not be as successful as many here hope it will be.

CAFE, higher Fuel prices, Carbon Tax, all-new wrangler, and wrangler pickup, refreshed GM midsize pickup.

 

I think ford is moving too slow, and is reacting to the market instead of leading the market. as a result their products seem out of touch with market growth.

 

 

 

I don't understand what Ford's platform strategy is.I understand what Toyota,Nissan and VW are doing to reduce development cost long-term. But ford apparent Strategy is to continue to evolve existing platforms which they have traditionally been unable afford to maintain.

 

what will cgange over the next 3-4 years to bend the product development cost curve to allow for more and better products to be produced faster and at a cost ford can afford?

.

Please tell us again how balanced GM's lineup is.

[akirby]

Ford bad, everybody else good.

[BORG]

Ford is very regimented, I understand why they seem slow but this is the way they do business. They respond to markets when they need to and lead other markets when it makes the most sense for them. I do think Ford under Alan Fields has become very slow and conservative and that's probably comes down to several factors, one of them is the gap between generations, the timeline for negotiating new factory capacity, and the lack of urgency Ford is facing now that they are financially secure which wasn't the case when Mullally really pushed forward some aggressive efficiency and technology plans. Ford is now in a maintenance cycle to tweak the systems that lead to record low quality scores and unhappy customers. So right now we can assume they are ramping up for the next phase which is ultimately held back by a long timeline to get ALL their ducks in a row. But at the end of the decade things should look much healthier even if the economy isn't likely to reward it. The only problem is that Ford doesn't have allot of flexibility to respond to growth with such a tight system so Ford is always doomed not to grow, they are always planning for the fall. The only thing they need to focus on is getting those customers into other segments, which unfortunately they haven't been able to do and which is going to cause huge problems for them.

 

It does make GM look like the star of Detroit right now, aggressive product cadence and pioneering important new products segments, even GM full-size trucks are about to outsell the F-Series, not to mention the success of all their other trucks. Ford's slow pace of their F-Series launch certainly contributes to this, we are going on year 3 with the Super-Duty finally launching...and we're still waiting on Expedition. And despite all this time, Ford quality is still below industry averages.

 

But I still wouldn't want any GM product over the Ford equivalents, I still think they are making more desirable and special products even if they don't have as many segments or models. You certainly can't get a Fusion Sport, Edge Sport, Explorer Sport, Focus ST and AWD everything at Chevy.

Edited September 5, 2016 by BORG

[akirby]

We'll see who fares better in the downturn, Ford or GM. This is why Ford was reluctant to add a lot of plant capacity until they were sure it was needed long term.

[RichardJensen]

It does make GM look like the star of Detroit right now

 

Except that they're generally less profitable overall and per unit than Ford (excluding the most recent quarter), they're extending credit to people they shouldn't, their "strategy" for Cadillac is impossible to fathom, and their European operations have been a drag on the company's resources for almost two decades.

 

Oh, and they also have no commercial van range to speak of, they still have too much capacity and too many dealers, and they're wasting cash reserves on stock buybacks ahead of a looming downturn in the market.

[BORG]

 

Except that they're generally less profitable overall and per unit than Ford (excluding the most recent quarter), they're extending credit to people they shouldn't, their "strategy" for Cadillac is impossible to fathom, and their European operations have been a drag on the company's resources for almost two decades.

 

Oh, and they also have no commercial van range to speak of, they still have too much capacity and too many dealers, and they're wasting cash reserves on stock buybacks ahead of a looming downturn in the market.

 

 

The last quarter is an important exception, especially since Ford is warning of significant challenges ahead which may put Ford's financials at a greater disadvantage going forward.

 

As for Vans, it's an important market with presumably higher margins than Ford's diminishing retail business.

 

GM's business is messy but it's hard to deny their success right now. It ultimately depends on how fit they are for market upheavals.

Edited September 5, 2016 by BORG

[RichardJensen]

 

 

The last quarter is an important exception

 

No.

 

No, it's not. GM is perceived as healthier because they aren't battening down the hatches. GM's pension liabilities are significantly higher than Ford's, for instance: $5.7B vs. $18.4B.

 

The whole character of GM's management is changed but little over the past decade. You would think that bankruptcy would've instilled a measure of sobriety in the executive ranks, but aside from late-Roman-empire style churn in the CEO's office, little has changed in how GM does business. They're not as well-positioned as Ford to weather a downturn with a unionized workforce, given their much larger manufacturing footprint. They continue to rely on an outmoded view of their own company's relevance (viz: the ongoing effort to price Cadillac products squarely against BMW), and they are not using the windfall profits from their SUVs to improve their overall produt range (rather, they're buying back shares).

 

The painlessness of the GM bankruptcy for the upper mid tier of GM employees (top platform & product engineers), and the government-sanctioned interpretation of the bankruptcy process as a quick rinse of a company that needed only cosmetic changes (let's scrap some divisions and cut a few dealerships) in order to become a top flight competitor again has bred a mutated form of complacency that is as unjustifiable as the complacency of 2006.

Edited September 5, 2016 by RichardJensen

[Biker16]

.

Please tell us again how balanced GM's lineup is.

 

More profitable than ford

More volume than ford.

more products than ford

Consistent product refresh rate

Cruze sales up. 52% Focus Sales down 26%

Midsize pickup sales 4-5 years ahead of Ford.

All-New Spark sales up 6%

ALL-new Cruze Out sold the Refreshed Fusion.

ALL-new Cruze Out sold the Focus almost 2 to 1.