NAIAS 2017

[rmc523]

My guess:

 

- Production Navigator

- MCE Mustang

- Expedition Concept this will be the production model, not a concept

- Ecosport - already revealed, but would be at the show

- Ranger or Bronco concept - maybe this season, but not here I don't think

- F150 Diesel - presumably would debut with F-150 MCE wherever that is shown

- Maybe a North American interpretation of the Troller from Brazil (competition for the Cherokee) no - this would be Bronco

- Lincoln MKX and MKC with the new Lincoln front fascia - these will happen next year - MKC goes for a full redesign, with MKX getting an MCE.

- A Ford surprise - doesn't sound like it's in the cards

Edited December 27, 2016 by rmc523

[Loyalbutconcerned]

Good to hear that the Expy will be production. Can't wait to see it.

 

Actually meant Troller = Wrangler.

 

On the Lincoln nose I would not be surprised if the two CUVs come out this year though as I remember them launching the MKZ after showing it on the Continental. Considering the strength of the market for these types of vehicles they could move to capitalized. Who knows though?

[rmc523]

Good to hear that the Expy will be production. Can't wait to see it.

 

Actually meant Troller = Wrangler.

 

On the Lincoln nose I would not be surprised if the two CUVs come out this year though as I remember them launching the MKZ after showing it on the Continental. Considering the strength of the market for these types of vehicles they could move to capitalized. Who knows though?

 

The Lincoln nose transition comes down to product timeline. MKC is set to be replaced next year, for 2019, and MKX is due for a refresh in 2019. Hence, why both will be shown next year. That said, I predicted we'd see a MKC "Concept" that would be like all of Lincoln's recent concepts - lightly "conceptified" versions of the final vehicles - but it seems that for sure won't be at Detroit, but may not occur at all if BORG's source is correct.

Edited December 28, 2016 by rmc523

[BORG]

The next-gen MKC is really tied to the Escape so it's not really that close considering the 2017 MCE needs to run for 3 model years according to their investment/return cycle. Since MKC and Escape are staying at the same factory, the changeover has to happen simultaneously. If they were moving MKC to Mexico, it could have come out sooner along with the Focus. So my guess is MKC is now into the 2020 MY and we may see the MKX facelift a little earlier...although an MKC concept could certainly come out next year. You also have to remember Lincoln products that share a factory with Ford tend to lag their Ford counterpart a good 6 months (Edge and MKX actually debuted in different model years). China may also get a concept instead of the US. Right now Ford is tightening the belts so it makes sense they would not produce multi-million $ PR concepts.

 

MCE concepts are extremely unusual so I would not expect one for MKX. And besides, I think we all know exactly what the MKX face will look like.

Edited December 28, 2016 by BORG

[rmc523]

The next-gen MKC is really tied to the Escape so it's not really that close considering the 2017 MCE needs to run for 3 model years according to their investment/return cycle. Since MKC and Escape are staying at the same factory, the changeover has to happen simultaneously. If they were moving MKC to Mexico, it could have come out sooner along with the Focus. So my guess is MKC is now into the 2020 MY and we may see the MKX facelift a little earlier...although an MKC concept could certainly come out next year. You also have to remember Lincoln products that share a factory with Ford tend to lag their Ford counterpart a good 6 months (Edge and MKX actually debuted in different model years). China may also get a concept instead of the US. Right now Ford is tightening the belts so it makes sense they would not produce multi-million $ PR concepts.

 

MCE concepts are extremely unusual so I would not expect one for MKX. And besides, I think we all know exactly what the MKX face will look like.

 

That was supposed to say MKC "concept," not MKX concept, it's been fixed above. Why would they push the MKX refresh up a year early? And leave MKC as the only vehicle in the lineup left with the split wing by itself.

[BORG]

 

That was supposed to say MKC "concept," not MKX concept, it's been fixed above. Why would they push the MKX refresh up a year early? And leave MKC as the only vehicle in the lineup left with the split wing by itself.

 

 

It's likely they'll be out simultaneously or within 6-months of each other but an MCE typically happens within 3-4 years so that could put it a model year sooner (although the same rule means MKC is way overdue on this timeline). As for the fascia transition, that's already an issue now and will be for at least 3 years, one of those vehicles is going to be the last left with it. This is typical for most manufacturers, the transition takes years.

Edited December 28, 2016 by BORG

[rmc523]

 

 

It's likely they'll be out simultaneously or within 6-months of each other but an MCE typically happens within 3-4 years so that could put it a model year sooner (although the same rule means MKC is way overdue on this timeline). As for the fascia transition, that's already an issue now and will be for at least 3 years, one of those vehicles is going to be the last left with it. This is typical for most manufacturers, the transition takes years.

 

3 years would be 2019 for MKX, 4 would be 2020. Ah I see what your point is....based upon the thought of MKC being 2020.

 

Yeah, MKC is overdue, that's why it skips it and goes straight for a redesign, as it was launched what, 2 years after Escape?

[BORG]

The MKC might be in good company, the 2008 Q5 which is just now getting its 2nd generation, with only a very mild 2012 update to keep it going. The MKC could run 5-6 years before it's successor and an MCE doesn't make much sense unless we are looking at 8+ year cycles. It has always been a little perplexing to me that MKC launched so far away from the Escape when that probably means their investment is going to be short-lived since the next Escape is that much sooner.

Edited December 28, 2016 by BORG

[jpd80]

Why?

Ford could keep building the MKC even after the new Escape is launched,

it's probably preferable to do that than trying to launch too soon....

 

The only caveat I'd put on that is, update the appearance with new grille,

that would smooth things nicely on the back half of this product cycle...

 

and remember that Nth American Lincoln production is now feeding China as well,

so there's going to be plenty of builds in the next two years or so...

Edited December 29, 2016 by jpd80

[BORG]

You think Lincoln can sell the old MKC next to an all-new Escape which is going to be cheaper and likely better in every possible way?

Edited December 29, 2016 by BORG

[rmc523]

Eh, I'm still firmly in the camp that MKC skips a refresh and goes straight for a complete redesign.

[jpd80]

You think Lincoln can sell the old MKC next to an all-new Escape which is going to be cheaper and likely better in every possible way?

Let's turn that around, Knowing what you do about Ford and Lincoln,

 

Is is likely that Ford will sell a brand new Escape well ahead on a new MKC and that

the new MKC will be delayed considerably to avoid another disastrous launch?

 

I'm not saying that Ford won't change MKC to the new platform, just that it's not

desperately important to do so right on top of the Escape launch...do you agree?

[BORG]

Let's turn that around, Knowing what you do about Ford and Lincoln,

 

Is is likely that Ford will sell a brand new Escape well ahead on a new MKC and that

the new MKC will be delayed considerably to avoid another disastrous launch?

 

I'm not saying that Ford won't change MKC to the new platform, just that it's not

desperately important to do so right on top of the Escape launch...do you agree?

 

 

No, it makes no sense to build two platform generations on the same production line especially when the Lincoln's volume is so low. That complicates and increases expenses of the changeover and operation. I'm not saying it can't be done, and ultimately it depends on what the next Escape is based on. MKC still needs an MCE in that case so something is happening in 2019 according to their schedule. This is a strategy that works at GM although it's not something I typically expect from Ford which has been more aggressive at platform consolidation and globalization. But under Fields it does look like Ford is more willing to keep older platforms and products around for a longer period of time, Taurus and Continental are a good example of this and I do expect this to increase to more products as Ford looks to cut cost and regionalize like it once did. So if MKC and Escape co-exist, I guess it shouldn't be too shocking.

Edited December 30, 2016 by BORG

[jpd80]

 

 

No, it makes no sense to build two platform generations on the same production line especially when the Lincoln's volume is so low. I'm not saying it can't be done, and ultimately it depends on what the next Escape is based on. In that case, the means MKC will need a significant MCE to catch up to the rest of Lincoln which seems silly if it's happening beside an all-new Escape.

The MKC is a different platform to current Escape so your assertion is flawed right form the start.

Ford also builds Flex and MKT alongside Edge and MKX production at Oakville...

 

The key is that all those vehicles have the same build sequences with different off line parts

so it wouldn't surprise me to see MKC hang around until Ford decides to change it and more

importantly, they're just gearing up for more sales into China next year or so...

[2b2]

umm ... When is the ng Escape expected?

[jpd80]

And who's to say that the NG Escape "platform" isn't hiding in plain sight....

Edited December 30, 2016 by jpd80

[fuzzymoomoo]

umm ... When is the ng Escape expected?

~MY2020 or so

[fuzzymoomoo]

The MKC is a different platform to current Escape so your assertion is flawed right form the start.

Ford also builds Flex and MKT alongside Edge and MKX production at Oakville...

 

The key is that all those vehicles have the same build sequences with different off line parts

so it wouldn't surprise me to see MKC hang around until Ford decides to change it and more

importantly, they're just gearing up for more sales into China next year or so...

MKC is the same platform as Escape, and Flex/MKT is not the same platform as Edge/MKX.

[MKX1960]

Why?

 

Ford could keep building the MKC even after the new Escape is launched,

it's probably preferable to do that than trying to launch too soon....

 

The only caveat I'd put on that is, update the appearance with new grille,

that would smooth things nicely on the back half of this product cycle...

 

and remember that Nth American Lincoln production is now feeding China as well,

so there's going to be plenty of builds in the next two years or so...

They also need to get rid of THX and replace it with the Reval systems.

[jpd80]

MKC is the same platform as Escape,

Ford has said that MKC had so many changes over Escape that it is actually a different platform..

 

and Flex/MKT is not the same platform as Edge/MKX.

I never said they were but look, they are both built in the same plant so the build process must be very similar, no?

and that's the point I'm making here, that different vehicles have similar build processes and if that similarity is maintained,

product cycles can change without needing a complete tear up of all production systems...

 

Getting back to Borg's concerns,

So let's think about the product cycle timing of Escape and MKC for a moment, the original plan was to

end Escape production November 2018 and transfer to Cuautitaln but now, all of that ahs changed since

the Donald go involved and "stopped the Lincoln plant moving to Mexico"...LOL, I still can't believe that crap.

 

So Edge changes over early 2019 calendar year and I expect MKC will be about 4-6 months after that.

MKC began production July/August 2014 so that will be five years production including exports to China.

That fits for me...

Edited December 31, 2016 by jpd80

[akirby]

Wixom used to build BOF town cars and unibody Lincoln LSes on the same line. Nothing similar about those.

[fuzzymoomoo]

Wixom used to build BOF town cars and unibody Lincoln LSes on the same line. Nothing similar about those.

I thought that plant had different lines...

[akirby]

Not for final assembly. They went down the line intermingled.

[fuzzymoomoo]

Not for final assembly. They went down the line intermingled.

Ah ok, so it's a similar setup to KTP then.

[Harley Lover]

Ford has said that MKC had so many changes over Escape that it is actually a different platform..

 

Might the MKC changes/upgrades foreshadow what will become the new chassis for the Escape, i.e. the Escape will simply adopt the upgrades given the MKC, thus unifying the products?